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ULTA Stock - Great Businesses Always Climb A Wall Of Worry! 

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
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ULTA stock is down a bit from its peak but the business has been compounding greatly for the last 15 years. I give you 3 factors to consider when contemplating investing in ULTA stock. 1) there is competition, Sephora, 2) international expansion is always a risk and 3) we always have to consider the level of discretionary spending. All in all, investment returns will depend on the management's execution and economic activity.
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
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14 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 145   
@dawoodibrahim8036
@dawoodibrahim8036 Месяц назад
Hey sven, i think some important things that should be noted for $ULTA: 1. Big safety is brand loyalty (95% customers are loyalty members) 2. Almost always growth on revenue (except for pandemic) 3. Related to point 1, most girls have high brand loyalty and adore the points system to buy their products from ULTA 4. The makeup industry requires that you 'renew' your makeup every 2-3 years, so people in pandemic may be set to renew their products. 5. US market is probably maturing but in Canada (they wanted to expand in 2020), there is no competitor to sephora here - so the next closest vendor is Shoppers Drug Mart but even this is not a substitute for ULTA's potential market position. I think it's a good investment at 15PE and has good ROIC & ROE; and have 20 shares currently.
@advikdeshmukh805
@advikdeshmukh805 7 дней назад
I would discount the 95% customer loyalty. There loyalty program is free and anyone can join. If it costed like $20 a year and they had a high rate of customer loyalty, I’d say it’d matter because you can be sure that people feel there is an incentive to revisit the stores.
@vladpuescu
@vladpuescu Месяц назад
I also did my own analysis on ULTA and completely agree with what you said. I started a small position, hoping it goes down further to add at better prices.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing!
@sirogersiroger8835
@sirogersiroger8835 Месяц назад
Great Video Sven, still waiting for Mc Donalds:) would say Great Business at a fair Price. Looking for the next Videos. BR
@SireStefan
@SireStefan Месяц назад
Something else to keep in mind is that beauty products are HUGE right now, but that this was not always the case. In the 90s, there was a kind of anti-glamor reaction, because of how crazy the 80s were. Who knows, maybe in a decade or two there is a lot less interest in beauty products as a reaction to how crazy it is now. Culture often behaves in waves like that.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
good point!
@johnl.7754
@johnl.7754 Месяц назад
Also With lower birth rates less young women as customers
@exursist
@exursist Месяц назад
​@@johnl.7754Lol with the way the world is now Vs the 80s and 90s, soon women won't be the only gender that shops here 😅
@ASMR-Economics
@ASMR-Economics Месяц назад
Yes this is true, I know plenty of men (myself included) shop at Ulta.
@HS-PGA
@HS-PGA Месяц назад
There was no Instagram in the 90’s
@christophenour
@christophenour Месяц назад
Great analysis Sven. I've analyzed ULTA with my students and it's definitely an interesting business. We will see how it goes!
@vermasean
@vermasean Месяц назад
Good day Mr. Sven! Thanks for another thorough analysis 🙌
@JCTEAM60
@JCTEAM60 Месяц назад
In 1996, Starbucks started expanding internationally and a share was $2. Their stock price has increased over 4500% at present $. Don’t know that Ulta will see the same results but that would be quite tasty!
@UshaSharma-xh3we
@UshaSharma-xh3we Месяц назад
You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me Unimantic was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it.
@zenastronomy
@zenastronomy Месяц назад
why turning point?
@user-pr9ol8lr8h
@user-pr9ol8lr8h Месяц назад
​@@zenastronomybecause people get comfort from confirmation bias haha
@barcacona
@barcacona 29 дней назад
And what is keep being you ? Lol.
@nikhilgaming8928
@nikhilgaming8928 Месяц назад
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Right now I'm keeping an eye on Unimantic.
@Scottweeier846
@Scottweeier846 Месяц назад
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer
@Nguyenvictory83
@Nguyenvictory83 Месяц назад
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
@Josephbasta827
@Josephbasta827 Месяц назад
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
@Toddburke343
@Toddburke343 Месяц назад
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
@carolynvo7802
@carolynvo7802 Месяц назад
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
@EricLopez4167
@EricLopez4167 Месяц назад
Her good reputation already speaks for her .I’m also one of the beneficiary of Natalie Strayer. So happy I gave it a trial after being skeptic of the process.
@patrickshanghai2064
@patrickshanghai2064 Месяц назад
your framework for thinking about stocks plus the patience you show is extremely useful. thx Sven. i am almost looking forward to a recession to observe how all these interesting stocks behave. and to buy more.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
Great to hear!
@joephysics5469
@joephysics5469 Месяц назад
After talking to some lady friends, I learned that most had purchased a lot of makeup during the covid times. Now with inflation they have cut back on spending on makeup and have enough to last many, many months. Hard times ahead for this industry.
@semkjaer3581
@semkjaer3581 Месяц назад
Covid restrictions ended over 2 years ago, I feel like those supplies must surely be running low
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 25 дней назад
That’s why now is the time to buy This is the slowdown
@inigosanchez4217
@inigosanchez4217 Месяц назад
Thanks Sven. Great video. What do you think about Sixt preference stock? The stock is falling sharply recently
@johannesreiter5400
@johannesreiter5400 Месяц назад
Thanks Sven for your content. Could you cover some Hongkong property stocks Like Swire Group or Jardine? Would ne interesting :)
@mohamedanderson8014
@mohamedanderson8014 Месяц назад
I’ve been buying over the last couple months!
@damiux1
@damiux1 Месяц назад
Hi Sven, very good video, extremely interesting as usual What do you think about the "Lipstick effect" in case of a recession. The beauty is not completely discretionary I think.
@fayezalwattar6519
@fayezalwattar6519 Месяц назад
Hi Sven, can you make a video for books to buy please.
@jeroen7356
@jeroen7356 Месяц назад
What about Lanxess from a value perspective?
@dariocasabella2744
@dariocasabella2744 Месяц назад
Can you please make a video on luxury companies like LVMH and Kering? Hermes doesn't look that attractive to me now
@sheanathan3566
@sheanathan3566 Месяц назад
Nice analysis
@anderson6379
@anderson6379 Месяц назад
Thank you for consistent teaching 🙏
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
My pleasure
@yoramhtm
@yoramhtm Месяц назад
Great Video Sven. Thank you
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
Glad you enjoyed it
@Deepzombie
@Deepzombie Месяц назад
Thanks for the walk through of the company! What do you think about NRDE? Nu ride is a special situation, it is what is left after the fraud and crash of lordstown. Essentially it looks like the exit company carry more cash than the market cap. Since it basically is a spac the bet is on the current management and what they will do with that cash. Is it a cigar butt that young Buffet would taken the last puff on?
@thewonderof06790
@thewonderof06790 Месяц назад
been holding since 2010. Happy to say the least. Bought more recently cheapest by PE it has ever been.
@ckeegan74
@ckeegan74 Месяц назад
Thank you Sven. I would like to suggest looking at ABEV stock.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
what is going on there? will check!
@thomaskismul8541
@thomaskismul8541 Месяц назад
Great video, Sven, thanks! Have you ever looked at the difference at specialisation vs global value search? There are a couple value investors in norway i follow closely who have done 40% cagr the last decade, mostly specialising in 3 industries in Scandinavia. Would love to hear your thought
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
interesting, thanks for sharing!
@sangho6522
@sangho6522 Месяц назад
Can you provide name of these investors?
@orginaleinstein
@orginaleinstein Месяц назад
Thanks Sven, I would love to see a review of LULU. Cheers!
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
I think my wife bought something recently, thus the stock will boom!!!
@lvg8200
@lvg8200 Месяц назад
@@Value-Investing😂
@stevenbond4637
@stevenbond4637 Месяц назад
LULU to the moon, Francois Rochon wouldn't lie to me :)
@facundobuzali5342
@facundobuzali5342 Месяц назад
Love this brand and stock! My mum, cousin and girlfriend could live in one store..
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing :-)
@aristark559
@aristark559 Месяц назад
wow great job, looks really good, bought a small amount
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing!
@Alex-qw7iz
@Alex-qw7iz Месяц назад
looks very interesting!
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks!
@TheJovenyoung
@TheJovenyoung День назад
great analysis. Have you had a look at CELH?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing День назад
Not yet!
@CristianHernandez-er4zn
@CristianHernandez-er4zn Месяц назад
What about Televisa $TV from Mexico? 🎉
@BtotheW
@BtotheW Месяц назад
good day Sven
@OliverLiam-px3vx
@OliverLiam-px3vx Месяц назад
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
@HRMColoniallifeinsurance
@HRMColoniallifeinsurance Месяц назад
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have a great deal of skill and knowledge to pull such trades off.
@EricaWaters-lr6zw
@EricaWaters-lr6zw Месяц назад
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from Desiree Ruth Hoffman, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
@DK-qf6pr
@DK-qf6pr Месяц назад
Sven what's your opinion that ULTA is all over RU-vid overpromoted and now also in the investing channels like yours (because of the comments). Reminds me Tesla, Bitcoin etc shilling case
@user-ku5be4nc3g
@user-ku5be4nc3g Месяц назад
I've heard about Ulta some longer time ago on this channel and did my 25% in few Months with them
@JackDespero
@JackDespero Месяц назад
I don't think that model will work in Europe, if that is their next step after SA. Most people in Europe do not go to malls to buy stuff, that is why malls keep failing all across Europe. So a megastore mall-like beauty shop is not going to work. The products themselves may work if they are sold in standard shops, but the "all in one model" won't. I have seen plenty of Sephora stores, and most of them are small shops with the selection of items. I have never seen a mega Sephora store.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 25 дней назад
They do a lot of online business
@danielreznicek7267
@danielreznicek7267 Месяц назад
How about MNST stock? It is close to its 52-week low. A good buy or a fair reflection of slowed growth?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
don't know about the trend there
@nixielee
@nixielee Месяц назад
Ulta's Mexico thing is half-baked at best, clearly feeling the heat from LVMH, and Europe would be even harder. Waiting for a lower price for sure
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing!
@mjd_sharaf
@mjd_sharaf Месяц назад
Hey Sven, could you do PAYC?
@adham7912
@adham7912 Месяц назад
Pls PAYC yess!!!!
@MichaelBeneker
@MichaelBeneker Месяц назад
Can you review avpt stock? Its doing software protection for Microsoft and other big companies...
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for suggesting!
@yr99jparkin
@yr99jparkin Месяц назад
Hi Sven, would love your perspective on LPSN (NASDAQ)!
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for suggesting!
@aoru12369
@aoru12369 Месяц назад
kind of a long-shot, but id like to see some uranium part of the market commentary. and if not a general comment, maybe a look into any of the tickers: UUUU, UEC, KAP (id really like to hear about this one), LEU puno pozdrava iz zagreba
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
puno pozdrava!
@Concojone5
@Concojone5 26 дней назад
Sven did some uranium videos in 2018-2019, at the bottom of the market. (Not these exact miners, but who cares)
@Ironmanalby
@Ironmanalby Месяц назад
You are right Sven good business so farbut competition is very strong amd sephora has a better model then ulta,ask to a girl
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
good point, thanks for sharing!
@thewonderof06790
@thewonderof06790 Месяц назад
I was at the lumber yard today. The "men" at the lumber yard had longer painted nails than the girls clerking at the grocery store. Strange business to say the least.
@95tillinfinity23
@95tillinfinity23 Месяц назад
😂 tf
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
:-))))
@MrFrescocotone
@MrFrescocotone Месяц назад
Agree on the analysis. Great company but risk/reward ratio right now doesn't make it a compelling investment
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks!
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing!
@vig6912
@vig6912 Месяц назад
I still remember back in 2018 people talking the same about Walgreens. It is a compounder, dividend aristocrat, great business, great margin UNTIL IT WASN'T
@Daniel-ld3zi
@Daniel-ld3zi Месяц назад
If someone said great margin then that was their problem lol
@DK-qf6pr
@DK-qf6pr Месяц назад
​@@Daniel-ld3ziwhy?
@Daniel-ld3zi
@Daniel-ld3zi Месяц назад
@@DK-qf6pr profit margin was always around 5% and gross margin was in a steady trend down.
@johnmcquaid7524
@johnmcquaid7524 Месяц назад
🥇
@vermasean
@vermasean Месяц назад
And the medal to prove it 🙌
@georgesamaras2922
@georgesamaras2922 Месяц назад
next: LULU
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
coming soon then!
@user-ng5it8vu3m
@user-ng5it8vu3m Месяц назад
Honestly, I don't understand why you're discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Unimantic and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
@k4ir0s
@k4ir0s Месяц назад
Investing is about making money.
@Jesus_777.2
@Jesus_777.2 Месяц назад
When you said the word fast, I automatically knew you are doing something wrong. If youre having fun with stocks youre doing something wrong. Dont confuse a Bull market with you being a genius
@Witnessmoo
@Witnessmoo Месяц назад
Analyse Burford Capital
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for suggesting!
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Месяц назад
Beauty has always been recession and inflation proof. Almost as good as cigarettes and booze.
@georgesamaras2922
@georgesamaras2922 Месяц назад
but they aint millenial zoomer proof
@afonsodeportugal
@afonsodeportugal Месяц назад
@@georgesamaras2922 Why not? Millennials and zoomers are also vain and frivolous! 😜
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
beauty yes, but this is a bit different because you can spend on them pampering you or not...
@realestalex2728
@realestalex2728 Месяц назад
Don't you think you focus too much on the quantitative? I mean you would need to know about the make up industry to undertsand what this company has to offer
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
you see the qualitative from the quantitative too!
@davidkoba
@davidkoba Месяц назад
Retail, the “widow maker”.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
yep
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Месяц назад
Too bad they dont pay a dividend.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
:-(
@juantapia5694
@juantapia5694 Месяц назад
Also keep in mind, when consumers run out of money, they tend to stop being “wants” like beauty products and are only able to afford “needs”. Caution
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
corect
@dariovukadin1539
@dariovukadin1539 Месяц назад
Ulta is a cannibal stock. They are buying back stock worth 1 billion in 2024 alone. I havent seen anyone mentioning that.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
it is mentioned in the video!
@cakeismtrader4227
@cakeismtrader4227 Месяц назад
ELF is. Better buy
@afonsodeportugal
@afonsodeportugal Месяц назад
Could you please be so kind to tell us why?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
thanks for sharing!
@HS-PGA
@HS-PGA Месяц назад
Too expensive
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Месяц назад
:-)
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