Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 

Not going to lie, this is the “smarter” administrative results 🤝

Did I just get an entire college semester's worth of knowledge from his one?

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis is a must read and very relevant.

Having dealt with AT&T's network carrier support before I can totally believe that they pushed some update to their core routing infrastructure that cocked everything up to the point that an army of outsourced Indian techs spent an entire day trying to brute-force troubleshoot the problem until someone who actually understood the problem stepped in.

Accepting or rejecting a null hypothesis is always valuable. Thanks again S2!

The Underground University is more legit than most colleges these days. Keep it up boss man, appreciate your time and effort.

Seeing how AT&T is tied tightly to CIA/FBI/NSA, then as protection for something they are aware of. They could have shut down the system for protection.

I love this new era. Thank you, s2. May we always fight in the shade

I work in critical cell network infrastructure, and have worked on several large scale outages, so allow me to interject a little bit of professional experience. A nationwide outage is never a single point of failure. The system is designed with multiple redundancies in place to avoid something like that. What does happen is a cascade of otherwise innocuous problems. A fiber cut during a maintenance window where a region is getting pushed out an update. AT&T owns a huge amount of fiber network. Being that the other two carriers didn't experience a problem, I feel pretty safely concluding the issue wasn't an attack. When distribution gets hit (Nashville, Christmas for instance) everyone feels it.

As a 20 year retired Analyst, I can say with confidence that this guy knows his craft well. Keep em coming, love your videos!

The gulf hat is what makes it for me 🤙

Statement of accident should be weighted towards US false flag insofar as the state carries coercive power with the company. Good idea for it to be a group project to neutralize bias. Great video thanks!

This is the good stuff!...I learned some new things, re-learned some old things and gained overall. Thank you!!!

I think s2 is hiding a mustache from us

Good frame wirk for figuring a hypothesis, thank you for this presentation patriot. People have only to remember something long enough to write it down and doggedly follow procedures. Team effort is identifying strengths and weaknesses and appropriately assigning tasks. Everything starts with good leadership.

After years of using ACH I've developed some of my own practices in use and from my junior Marines while I was still in. Removing bias by refining evidence and providing sourcing for consistent answers. Helped clear up things a little with a little more work up front.

I love the new video format that seems to allow you to push out more long-form content more often. Dig it.

Outstanding info brother, love the deep dive on analyst work.

excellent episode. I love these structured analystical techniques.

This chanel & content, pure gold, one of my favs! Great work!!!

Hey buddy, I miss your weekly world intel videos. Thank you for the longer video today.

Inherent bias and cognative bias would have a big role in this grid. However, it's actually pretty good for "surface" analysis without directly going deeper. You're right in the essance of this being a group exercise, because several biases will cancel out in a larger group

Great content, Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

I do the RU-vid analytic technique. I post something, and if it’s deleted then it’s true. The faster they delete it, the more true it is. So far my success rate is 100%.

Credible information is the key to actual knowledge of any situation, &the truth is what you must have ,before reactions. Great content,& information, thanks.

For an opsec channel, I'm very confused why you decided to start showing your face, clothing, house, eye profile, computer, ...

What a wonderful speaker and teacher you are. And, I am envious of your hat... I grew up with Gulf... love it.

Really like this structured technique content. Keep it coming 😀

~3:30 to 3:40 is stuff Americans need to hear very badly. I salute you for doing it, it's a challenging message to an audience.

This and your video on the CARVER matrix are excellent 👌

We had a major telecom outage here in Canada back in 2022 that was multiple days and was caused by an update gone wrong. It crippled most of our financial system

At this point I seriously question myself if you ever sleep like the rest of us? And why am I watching this when I should be working 🤦🏼‍♀ Ok let me watch and comment later.

Excellent video again sir. Keep up the great work

Saved to watch later, I really want to pay attention when I watch this

Personally I use a ranking between 0 - 10, with potential ''neutral'' outcome at 5, I prefer to differentiate between evidence that actively disprove something against evidence that are irrelevant to certain hypothesis.

Loving these type of vids. God bless S2underground.

The theory that I had not considered until I listened to your analysis is actually not one of the hypotheses you evaluated. While you did identify that a nation state level actor was probably the most likely, I do think that another possibility to consider is that it was done by the US government in response to the second balloon incident. After first big balloon scandal a few months ago that one of the facts that came out that stuck with me was that the Chinese balloon used a domestic ISP to send data back to China. What if that domestic ISP was AT&T? The cellular carriers are really the only nationwide ISPs widely available in the open and, while China can be sophisticated with some things, I could also see them making a mistake as simple as forgetting to have redundant ISP connectivity built into their hardware. Your analytic method definitely got the wheels turning over here! Thanks.

ATT provides "First Net" Service (which was not effected) for nearly every government Agency that issues Phones. Separating this service from Normal ATT service would be a benefit to hostel actors in general (Finding the wall between) SOS messages appeared in some(mostly newer) IPhones. So it appears to me that they may have been targeted in the indecent. I believe that it was an attack targeting a specific piece of equipment in the ATT Network. As far as the balloon theory the outages ere first reported far from it's location.

Hey brother, I’m digging your decor. What is the painting behind you that’s off screen? I’ve seen it in other videos but I’m not cultured enough to recognize it. It has a white horse rider on the left and a dragon or something on the left. Pretty cool, I have a “study” with similar decor. Well bang on man, thank you for the training. Just praying for the blessed hope at this point. It’s a crazy world out there, thank you for arming patriots with the most important weapon: a keen mind.

Some very interesting ideas and approaches there! I always like "Cui Bono" analysis, while it doesn't always necessarily identify who did it, it often narrows down the field and objectively puts on paper who stands to gain from the various angles of those involved. But you do need to be careful to include cases your biased against and not rule out that it is someone trying to make it appear like someone else is benefitting too, much like you mention for your assess above.

Very interesting, S2, thank you! Also, this analysis technique make be a good replacement for the usual boardgames ( and solitaire?) that my friends/families like to play at a get-togethers!

Risky Crisky has really, REALLY chilled out.

Good information.

This post validated exactly what I knew.

Hypothesis: AT&T was taken out by DEI incompetence. Look at Boeing.

Verizon not being affected does not discount a cyber attack , possibly by china or Russia. AT&T being affected just means if it was an attack it was only directed at AT&T servers. Gaining access to a major telecom is hard but independently gaining access to TWO major American telecom companies is a least twice as hard unless there was a common vulnerability between the two.

ACH can also be used for private investigator work.

As far as "Accident last all day" - unlikely but it has happened at least once and could happen again. "Occurred same time as Balloon incident" - False flag would have gotten a yes from me because it gives "cover" to the false flag. Yes, the balloon could be coincidental. It is a fact that most companies will not say they were hacked unless legally forced to.

I worked for AT&T for 8 years, they have had service outages from sabotage in the past that were officially "accidents."

My brother is a senior network engineer with AT&t. He told me that the outage was deliberate, but he would not say why....no matter how much I pressed him on it.

Thanks for all your hard work on this, i enjoy learning about different theories and techniques when it comes to the fog of conflict. I'm a little skeptical when it comes to applying boards to people's lives. The whole Afghanistan thing was riddled with intel miscalculations and i hope these grids weren't implemented there. I cast no shade on the heroes and service members who sacrificed all, let me be 💯 clear on that. My concern is the whole garbage in garbage out intel bias. Look at ai. It was sold to be unbiased but google pulled their version for outright esg biases. When you started out this exercise about quality intel/verification is where we need to focus. Take out any feelings or short timer's syndrome to the equation only consider the hardest facts and drill down on that.

Thank You S2

Thank you S2

Remember the Nashville AT&T bombing by a former tech? This is what it would look like if unconstitutional intercept routing was fubared. If you eff your routes enough you can't 'get there' to fix them without actually going wheels-up with a laptop to fix them. Maybe they should have a Verizon hotspot backup for their crash cart. ;)

Good mind exercise that we all need

An At&t update problem is quite possible but there should be a digital paper-trail available that would indicate that. One option that you didn't include is industrial espionage and sabotage. Many people are unaware of how real the practice remains. However, personally I don't think it's likely here, it's just worth including in the analysis. I think its very telling that At&t failed to cite the cause of the accident. If it was an accident, they would know the cause and it would be in their best interest to provide shareholders, customers, and the media at least a basic technical explanation to avoid looking incompetent.

Yes evidence-based is always a winner! There are additional factors at play, my video called COMMS FUBAR is based off of my personal experience.

Nice touch "gulf" cap ❤😂

I can discuss incidents in WW2. Pearl Harbor was regarded as an unlikely target for amphibious assault or battleships raiding the harbor and a single aircraft carrier raid wasn't regarded as significant. Submarine activity was expected, and radio intelligence was tracking signals consistent with the Japanese aircraft carrier fleet in the Tokyo area. The latter puzzled Station Hypo because those carriers would have provided aircover for the offensives that had been tracked right up to the morning of 7 December 1941 Hawaii time. Bias and insufficient information meant that the intelligence network based in DC was ignorant of the extended land base aircraft attack radius--and that provided air cover to the expected Japanese attacks on the Philippines, the Dutch East Indies, Hong Kong, Singapore, Guam and Wake Islands--and a whole lot more. The attack on the Philippines was seen decades in advance but preparations to defend the Philippines only kicked into high gear after the 1940 American elections, and there were competing priorities due to the fall of France in 1940, sending aid to the British, Russians and Chinese (and others), and a greater focus on the upcoming war with Germany and Italy. Pearl Harbor and Panama were protected against sabotage and submarine attacks--both strategic points were considered to be out of range of Japanese battleship fleets, and those battleships had been "positively identified and located." Pearl Harbor didn't suffer sabotage (neither did the Army bases) and the battleships were needed elsewhere--but six carriers full of aircraft was far more than peacetime exercises and the two US Navy air raids on Pearl Harbor had demonstrated. Imperial Japan got her wake-up call with the Doolittle Raid. The American carrier task force and been detected and reported, but Japanese intelligence was that American carrier aircraft had a maximum striking range of less than 200 miles. The use of land-based B-25 medium bombers modified for that one raid was unexpected, and by the time Japan got a reprisal task force out looking for the carriers, Hornet and Enterprise were a thousand miles away and steaming rapidly to safety. Intelligence work is a guessing game. The Normandy landings achieved tactical and strategic surprise. The Battle of the Bulge achieved tactical surprise--the main things keeping the Christmas 1944 offensive from succeeding were inadequate forces committed to the task, a broken logistics chain, stubborn resistance, immediate counterattack, and when the weather cleared the skies belonged to the Allies. The Germans achieved surprise because Allied intelligence judged the probability of an offensive by Allied standards--the Germans failed because it wasn't 1940 anymore.

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can we do this with Baltimores bridge?

All of the recent information on these related topics are being kept for a...rainy day. Unfortunately I'm figuring we might have a future monsoon. This guy seems to have been an S2. My experiences long ago were all combat arms MOS's. As such this stuff might one day be important.

Are you going back to doing the intel updates? I loved those.

Is your set really a plywood hootch? Well played!

Solar CME ???

The same thing happened two weeks earlier to Optus in Australia. Another voice nw that shares optus facilities seemed OK. Optus claimed it was a software patch that went wrong. So I wonder if optus and at&t use the same systems and they didn't read the news?

This may sound strange but where did you get the gulf hat ? Def need one !

I enjoy all your videos but with the bias discussion I want to avoid just assuming everything you say is right. Are there any other good channels to follow for similar information to diversify my information gathering? Interested in both S2's thoughts as well as other subscribers.

20:00 If an outage can happen at any time, irregardless of external circumstances, shouldn't the timing-based facts (same time as balloon, during an election) be neutral 3s?

Very eloquently put. One part that bugs me, is the timing of the "accident " hypothesis. I worked for T for many years, and the likelihood of someone being allowed to make a potentially service affecting change during normal business hours is not very high. Your work is very much appreciated, I question why screwtube allows it. Stay safe brethren

This is just the start

Hello Brother. I live in a rural area, with a very low population density. I'm thinking about setting up an early warning system using SDR. The idea is to set up an IMISI catcher detecting all the cell phones around me and comparing them with a base of known (regular) imsis. So when a new, unknown cell phone (from outside my area) appears in range of my antenna it would alert me and let me know that someone new is now in my neighborhood. I haven't started working on the code for this yet, but I would like to know your opinion about it and also if you have any insights about it.

There was also an initial theory that it was due to a solar flare, but that went out the window as the flare around that time hit over the Pacific.

Can you please trim or singe the loose threads

S2 actual could teach undergrad stats in a university for a psychology or neuroscience department. Ask me how I know, haha.

thanks S2, you sir are a fantastic educator. good to hear your enthusiastic voice in this video!

What cell carrier do most Federal Agencies contract with? Knowing that answer may shed more light on the topic and change your matrix. Particularly if that answer is "Verizon".

You said do likelihood or capability; doesn’t using the number method, as opposed to a binary indicator, represent likelihood? Possible is binary isn’t it?

@S2, are you leaving out the solar flare data on purpose? The solar guys swear it was related to the solar flares with some decent scientific data to back it up

It was bugging me where I recognized him from, then it dawned on me, that mask, it's the Ask A Ninja guy!

They were probably upgrading towers. My service was basicaly gone for month last year around this time. My service still sucks.

🎉🎉🎉

What about column 4? Red Team Exercise.

I like and use the Carver method, but I prefer to use a odd number of people. After everyone has decided on the categories, then everyone gets to a sign a number in private. We then come back together. If two out of three come up with same number then that number is more likely it.

Those network outages may have been solar however it would be wise to attack during one for confusion.

Surely the fact that we are talking about this in the first place affirms this is an outlier incident, so negates the assertion that an all day outage due to an accident is unlikely.

"Statement of accident", in this case, would mean nothing to me. 5s across the board. Why? Because I fully expect them to be ordered to lie if it wasn't an accident.

Presense of a balloon is a stronger indicator of a false flag than nation state imo, considering the media buzz around "spy balloons" but announcing the event as an accident sorta defeats the purpose of a false flag.

Well, seeing as Verizon and AT&T each either run on a slightly different frequency, or run in a different encryption program to keep from crossing data lines and to keep corporate data from being free to people, China or false flag could very well have caused only one to go down. I'd have to research more what the cellular digital data all runs off of

He who smelt it, dealt it.

Crowd averaging tends to hit closer to the mark than individual analysis....the more eyeballs on the analysis, the more accurate the results.

ATT has a huge motive to lie about a breach because they run firstnet (first responder priority comms network). If they admit that they aren’t able to secure our comms they’d lose a ton of individual users and massive contracts all at once.

Need to add weights to each and then recalc. Some facts are more relevant and important than others. And therein lies the difficulty with these things. Also what if you miss a fact? Does that change the result? Maybe, maybe not. Good framework though.

It is said to never attribute to evil that which is explainable by incompetence . Of course , they did not live in THIS century or the one before it ...

Timely - as far as the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster is concerned

We need to figure out a way to get p.s.r., S2 and administrative results on the same video

Verizon was not effected. Neither were the smaller service renters like Cricket Wireless were effected that use the ATT systems.

Phil student here - this feels like an easier-to-use form of what we do within philosophy. What an interesting technique for untrained people/one of the many tools am expert might use

This is the lock picking lawyer of intelligence

At some point along the way you have used Weibull, just a guess.