Antonio Turiel: "Deep Challenges: Oceans, Scarcity and Culture" | The Great Simplification #65 

Antonio is truly a treasure for the world and it's really disgusting how he is attacked by some GND followers here in Spain

If I had one wish it would be that the human species, en masse, could understand and believe the fundamental realities outlined in this brilliant conversation. If they could do that with the same fervor and willingness that they display towards, religious and political ideology, there might be a ray of hope for our grandchildren. But that would require rational thinking and comprehension. Visceral awareness. Instead, we homo sapiens are awash in magical "thinking" that reverberates between Mecca, Rome, Salt Lake City and Washington. Man is NOT the measure of all things. The Earth is!

He is one of best scientific in this country!!!!

As a follow-up to this conversation, might I humbly suggest Derrick Jenson and/or Julia Barnes as potential guests? The implications of "Bright Green Lies" parallels much of this conversation. Thanks always, Nate. Your podcasts have become the equivalent of my weekly "spiritual practice".

He is a top scientist, thanks for bringing Antonio to the channel.

Thank you very much for these podcasts amigo!!!!

This was some top tier content, my friend. It covered the interplay of economics, environment, energy and ethics. 4E

I have to say that I learn so much from every episode. And I'm not denying any of this. This is the sad truth as we move forward that I believe we will make gallant attempts to remedy these issues of which there are so many, many. My thinking is that these attempts may be in vein, and the end of the road is upon us. I sincerely hope that this wont happen.

Antonio is great. Es increíble todo lo que hace. And he does talk very fast!

I really enjoyed the conversation. Since the U.S. has more energy resources than Europe, the U.S. has more time to prepare for the Great Simplification. What can the U.S. learn from Europe in adapting to a low-energy future? What do you think is legislation that could be passed at the federal, state or local level? Personally, I expect that some action will be taken at the state and local level (particularly in democrat-leaning areas), while the federal government drags its feet until its hands are forced. People voted Jimmy Carter out of office for asking them to wear a sweater. Imagine how they would react if gasoline was rationed? I fear that some people may get violent. Some people might say "Your asking me to cut my consumption while billionaires fly around the world in private jets". Biden's approval of the Willow project shows that he, like most politicians, is caught in the fossil fuel monkey trap.

Congrats for the video,and thanks for bringing Antonio. Here in Spain, he is highly recognised and valuable.

We are blessed to have such an empathetic and very wish informative podcasts from Nate Hagens Love Strength and openness to what our future beholds Thank you All dearly As I have learnt So much in this! It would be wonderful for you and Peter Zeihan to join research observation podcasts regarding our dire situation too Intense podcast into the realisation of our critical situation! 🕊🌏❤️🙏🏼

Love these long format interviews. They make my day. Yeah a day off work! So stimulating. So much learnt. Anticipating a great conversation.

Bravo. Thank you for this discussion.

Que scientist, Que hombre. 😎

My two favorite speakers together, literally, really... WOW !!!

TURIEL IS THE BEST

Thank you Nate for another interesting conversation, before you'd previously previewed Antonio Turiel I’d never heard of him, but I have now, there’s is a lot to unpack🤔

Excellent episode I took a lot of notes for my own advocacy work, thank you Please try and get Yanis on your show. It might be an fire cracker but his perspective in our predicament is priceless

Es increíble tu trabajo divulgativo, gracias

Yet another awesome conversation Nate. Thank you. I'm wondering if you have heard of Kohei Saito. Author of Marx in the Anthropocene: Towards the Idea of Degrowth Communism. Cambridge University Press 2023. Speaks to some of the ideas discussed in this podcast.

Ave. land temp increase in Europe over past 30yrs.: 1.5 degC. 1.1 degC ave world temp increase since industrial rev. So, these "averages" are very misleading. Temps increasing in the poles is critically important, melting glaciers, and in the Barents Sea very rapidly. Thanks for this important video. It was 85 here in Marietta, Ohio today. What could go wrong? Everything? Stress R Us

So glad to hear the ArchDruid quoted, John Michael Greer. 🥰

Loved this talk. Antonio is great. I don't want to contradict him on his point about the essence of capitalism. I want to be more specific. The essence of capitalism the idea that capital is invested to get back more capital. His example of loans with interest is a good one but there are more. Businesses are started with the expectation that they will make more than the initial investment. Stocks are bought with the expectation that they will be sold for more later. Employees are hired with the expectation that they will make the company more money than what is paid to them in a wage. I am sure people reading this can think of more examples. All of these things require infinite growth on a finite planet.

Antonio maybe speaking fast but having SUBTITLES in English etc… 😇has made this so much easier to take in And what shocking losses with regards to Wind turbine productions! Vestas $1.5 billion loss in 2022 Gamesa now Siemens $2 billion per year loss General Electric $2.2 billion loss

59:00 sanguine about PV over wind. As someone who's modelled grid energy at the one hour resolution, can tell you that a) wind and PV compliment each other well, both is better than just one or the other. on todays tech costs, having more wind in the mix for Australian locations (which has excellent solar resources) and probably mores in EU countries due to latitude and clouds is more cost optimal. perhaps in 20 or 30 years PV will have fallen so much more in cost than wind that this ration is inverted, but not any time soon. As for EROEI; both are excellent.

1:10:00 Great question abut scarcity. Paradoxically, in mainstream (neoclassical) economics there's a presumption of scarcity of goods, and falsely assume producers are price takers when we all know firms are price setters, and yet completely ignores the scarcity of the natural capital from which ALL human-made, human and social capital is transformed from. Neoclassical economics assumes nature will always just keep providing clean air, clean water, innate forests to log, biodiversity to keep us healthy and safe from pandemics…

An interview with Roger Hallam would be interesting, considering your perspective on energy, he seems very reasonable as well.

I could sure use some simplification greatly.

Marvellous conversation. Tho' it's so dire, somehow it makes clarity bearable.

Thank you From the depth of my soul Nate

Ah..."La Gran Simplificación" 😉

Thank you for this excellent interview! Cheers, from Brazil.

Could be released suddenly...the ocean is the main system ...I just listened a few minutes so far and can't imagine a politician to pay much attention to the dynamics he is pointing out. For all practical reasons, they pay attention. to 2 or 4 years in the election cycle

Wow. Thank you, I think.

Europe has to figure out a way how to not implode while being on the fast track to a different economic and socio-cultural reality. There are people and parties in each member state that would just gladly rip the whole thing apart and then compete against each other like its the 19th century again and as if there are no major global challenges we collectively need to adress.

Sobering conversation💭💬🗯 we're in such a mess😢

Population 2000 6.1 billion. Today 8 billion. By 2035 9 billion. Per year 80 million net new precious humans join us. The equivalent of one New York City of infrastructure etc etc etc arrive every month. This reality seems to be invisible in planning on every level

I left the US primarily because of the subprime crisis bit also because I wanted to reduce my C fooyprint. I'm in Phil now and struggling somewhat to adjust to this culture. People here are very easy going, friendly, and respectful. However, you really can't engage them in serious conversations. So it's frustrating.

Spain already has a well thought out high speed rail system.

1:17 what is needed is to envision a measurement system where GDP is not an energybased unit of measurement. I am not using the completely correct words. I mean, as analogous to seeing the dollar as the petrodollar and it would be possible to reframe it in the mind as not a derivative of petrol. In this analogy GDP should be reviewed as what it could mean not based on energy consumption. (maybe i should add i am thrilled by this conversation, as it is comforting to see other people completely coming to the same conclusions about all these things - my anxiety is always there, in the background, where i keep it, because it would feel wrong for me to have these thoughts and have no anxiety, so i am not trying to move past anxiety.)

Populations would demand responsible action and embrace lifestyle changes if they weren't mislead and governments captured.

Nate....thanks so much for these in depth reality conversations .....I find them so thought provoking....& it's good to face the predicament we are all in square in the face.....I personally have been going through the process of acceptance for I guess the last 2-3 yrs....it's been emotional on many levels...it still hurts....I know that this emotional trauma won't leave me until the "idiots"really start to change their ways & start showing the leadership that we expect from them...so far they are failing us ! It seems to me that many of us are talking about whats happening but the impression I get is we are simply out of good morally ethically sound governance....it's full of bad rotting apples......also there seems to be a lot of people just not tuning in to how severe things are about to get....& are just cracking on with the notion that government has there best interests at heart & are completely dumb to the reality that I for one see.....the dumb % that believes in this corrupt system....I mean theres got to be something badly wrong with anyone who votes these gangsters into governance & should look at themselves .....it's shameful......even beyond that.....how can i...a simple man see the horror show that we live in so clearly...a beautiful world with all it's wonder smashed by elite narcissistic monsters ....I don't vote personally as I don't believe in this system at all. We...the people need to stand together...NOW...if this is even possible we need to corner the "idiots" that are already giving up on their social responsibilities & are not being strong enough to be positive for all of man kind & planetary life....they are weak ....behaving like spoilt little children that can't get their act together...are we all going to just let them kill us all & everything that is so beautiful in the world.... Are we going to get them out & get the right people in...or just play dumb n numb ! We have a choice if we are prepared to face it.....think about the children....think about nature & the world around us....think about your own life......all that we love....all of this is gambled on "hope".......a word I dislike & gives me no confidence. Theres trouble coming down the road that I'd rather avoid than have to experience....we need to act fast We can force change Big love to you all

1:20:00 seems obvious - but Spain has a wealth of solar and wind resources. Electrify everything because wind and solar firmed with storage are much cheaper energy than FF and getting cheaper by the month. For the firming (storage) part, way cheaper energy storage for stationary applications (industrial processes, peaker grid supply to replace fossil gas speakers) in the form heat batteries is now emerging as a commercial product in Rondo heat battery. This changes everything, no scares materials for production, super low material and fabrication costs, EROEI will be nearly instantaneous compared with Lithium Ion cells.

As the Oceans heat up, the solubility of CO2 goes down. If you look at maps of CO2 concentration in the Oceans the hotter regions have lower concentrations than the colder, polar regions. As the CO2 concentration goes down, so does the carbonic acid concentrations because of Lechatlier's principal. (The CO2 and carbonic acid are in equilibrium and when that equilibrium shifts because of less CO2, then the carbonic acid will drop to maintain that equilibrium.) I'm not sure if he talked about this because it was hard to understand what he was saying sometimes. My question is, at what global temp will ocean acidity peak? Clearly ocean acidity did not cause the oceans to become dead during hot house periods because most of the time life has been on Earth, the Oceans have been hotter than they are now, and CO2 concentrations were higher than they are now. Its only the past 4 million years when they Earth has been in a cold period.

AT the end, around the 1:30:00 mark of the video where he says it's only going to go on for about ten more years, mh hm. I can see that, would the people to stay blinded and apathetic to what is really going on. Perhaps, with the bright help of the few true Humans, there could be a change of scenario where everything realigns back into the path we were all meant to be in.

I really want to know what his thoughts are on food becoming such a "hot topic" in 6 months from now. I guess the coming summer season in Europe that will see the drought likely worsening + conflict like Russia/Ukraine?

04:00 Hi Nate I know you must know this but feel it's worth highlighting that it's not just burning fossil fuels that is producing anthropogenic GHGs. deforestation (almost always for livestock production or their feed crops) and livestock production itself, especially ruminants such as cows and sheep are responsible for way more than the UNFCCC offical 14%. depends how you account for methane (28x CO₂ using GWP₁₀₀ or 100x using GWP₁₀ ), whether you include deforestation, and a bunch of other things. Some papers have arrived at 50% and even 86% of global emissions from the production of farmed animals for human consumption. Great discussion of the various aspects of this scope of GHG emissions here: ru-vid.com/group/PLYRhGzlaehcVN8OIXo7P984n6QaSiCgYq

I just heard a great presentation on overpopulation by Jane O'Sullivan. Would love to see her on here at some point.

Nate, can I ask, are you considering interviewing Dr Ye Tao. The originator of ' MEER ' - Mirrors for Earth's Energy Rebalancing at some point ?

Yeah oceans, you only realize how important they are when you look up the numbers. Oceans store 16 SIXTEEN times the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems, including forests, soils and marshes. Or 60 SIXTY times the carbon contained in the pre industrial atmosphere. It really is the ocean that balances the carbon concentration of the atmosphere, not the other way round. This also means, when we wish to "save" the climate by removing carbon from the air, the massive reserve in the ocean will quickly replenish what you've just removed - at a high price. Most eco modernists tend to overlook this "outgassing" effect, meaning they largerly under-budget what's needed to remove carbon from the atmosphere. This also implies that trees, the Amazon or all tropical rainforest aren't all that important nor effective to remove carbon. Whatever their uptake, the oceans carbon reserve is so big, most what's done on land is evened out by a simple puff out effect of the worlds seas.

1:02:00 I think Turiel is incorrect about the decline of electrical energy demand year-on-year in Spain. Same has happened in other countries like Australia for a decade and then increased as we electrify processes to fuel switch away from FF in buildings and as consumption and population rises. the decline is much more likely to do with a decline in domestic manufacturing and power consuming heavy industry (outsourced to China) and improvements in energy efficiency rather than the disinclination to consume energy from electricity rather than oil. BEVs are vastly preferred to ICE, never heard of a driver of an EV go back to ICE vehicles, and the second hand price of BEVs is sometimes higher than new BEVs of same model when the wait times are >6 months. Electrifying everything will save people money and lead to massive improvements in energy efficiency. consuming FF as petrol or oil or FF in grid energy wastes 2/3 of the energy as heat, as discussed in the entropy section of this interview. This is one reason why IEA and experts like Vaclav Smil repeatedly make the mistake of ignoring entropy and energy waste in FF combustion (pretty incredible given the authoritative proinpnce they have in the world). Further more, the public health impacts of FF burning are largely uncosted and "externalised" such that suppliers and consumers don't pay the costs of this pollution. And GHG obviously.

Most recent CO2 atmospheric: 424ppm. Ocean temp: highest ever recorded: 50 degC. Coal burning last year: 8,ooo,ooo,ooo tons. Oil burning: 100,000,000 barrels per DAY. The Gulf of Mexico heating and evaporation is driving the near constant violent storms we are seeing in the US. Fish stocks are crashing. And, oh yah, acidification. What could go wrong? Everything? Stress R Us

40:00 Energiewende has slowed for the last decade under Merkel. The coal Barrons strikes Back, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Paradoxically, the embarrassing situation of refiring shuttered coal power stations will almost certain force Germany to remove the blocks that have been placed in the way of Energiewende, transmissions must be rolled out on North South corridors over (or through) the Alps, something that was considered unthinkable for the last 20 years to bring the surplus of wind power resources in the North the the industrialised South. Lots of other blocks too.

Ocean is absorbing 10 Zettajpules/yr, 223 ZJ since 2000. A ZJ is 10 to the 21st BTUs. Stress R Us

How shall we then live - before, during, and after the Big Crunch. 😳

Nate do you have opinions on (e)bikes?

Unfortunately no one wants to go back to a world that fed a billion people in a world of 8 billion.

Maybe i missed something but Antonio says wind and solar are not really up to the job, and then later says we can produce about 40% (sustainably by the sounds of it) of the energy we currently live on. But where's that energy going to come from if not wind and solar? He doesnt mention nuclear so i presume thats not his answer...

Cancel the second law of thermodynamics. Heat exists as the random nanometer scale Brownian motion of mobile electrons [also called Johnson Nyquist thermal electrical noise] in a diode depletion region. This region straddles the abrupt junction between the N type and P type regions of a basic diode. The depletion region has variable electrical conductivity. If the net motion of mobile electrons there is towards the P type region, the depletion region will shrink and the electrical conductivity will increase, conveying the electrons into the P type region. If the net motion of mobile electrons there is towards the N type region, the depletion region will expand and the electron current will decrease. There is strong evidence that consistantly oriented diodes in parallel are successful electrical Maxwell's Demons or Smoluchowski's Trapdoors. The energy needed to shift the depletion region's deterministic role is paid as a burden on the moving electrons. There is therefore a usable net current from rectified thermal noise. The power from a single diode is poorly expressed. Several diodes in parallel are needed to overcome the effect of a load resistor's own noise. A plurality of billions of high frequency capable diodes is needed for practical power aggregation. ~2THz is the maximum frequency available in nature. This is beyond the range of most diodes. Practicality requires this extreme bandwidth. The diodes are in same orientation parallel at the primary level. Many primary level groups of diodes should be in series for practical voltage. Diodes in massive same orientation parallel are easily fabricated between an ohmic contact layer abutting all the anodes and another ohmic contact layer abutting all the cathodes with identical very small laterally isolated diodes between. Without the second law of thermodynamics civilization would know it could have perpetually convertable conserved energy which is the form of free energy where energy is borrowed from the massive heat reservoir of our sun warmed planet and converted into electricity anywhere, anytime with slight variations. Electricity produces heat when used by electric heaters, motors, or ligts so the energy borrowed by these devices is promply returned without gain or loss. There is also the reverse effect where refrigeration produces electricity equivalent to the cooling which is scientifically elegant. Cell phones wouldn't die or need power cords or batteries or become hot. They would cool when transmitting radio signal power. Computers and integrated circuits would have their cooling and electrical needs supplied autonomously simultaniously. Integrated circuits wouldn't need power pinouts. Robots would have extreme mobility. Frozen food storage would be reliable and free or value positive. That means storehouses, homes, and markets would have independent power to preserve food. Vehicles wouldn't need fuel or fueling stops. Elevators would be very reliable with independent power. Water and sewage pumps may be placed anywhere. Nomads could raise their material supports item by item carefully and groups of people could modify their settlements with great technical flexibility. Many devices would be very quiet, which is good for coexisting with nature and does not disturb people. Zone refining would involve little net power. Reducing Bauxite to Aluminum, Rutile to Titanium, and Magnetite to Iron, would have a net cooling effect. With enough clean cheap power, minerals could be finely pulverized, and H2O and CO2 levels in the biosphere could be modified. There should be a unitary agency to look after our global planetary concerns. In 1973 I filed for a patent, us3890161A, Diode Array, for a device which absorbs heat converting it to an equivelent amount of electrical energy via aggrgated rectified Johnson noise from a plurality of consistently aligned very small diodes. [This is not the patent abstract.] The patent was granted in 1975 and became public domain technology in 1992. The patent is attribution for my thinking in 1973. It is a new paradigm in science and civilization. Everyone should contribute to civilization's advancement cooperatively. Inventions that are widely published become unpatentabe. A public incorruptable archive could secure attrbution for the original works of creators. Uncorrupted copies would be releaseed on request. No further action would be taken by this institution Many financially and procedurally independent teams that pool developmental knowlege, and may be funded by noncontrolling crowd sourced grants should convene themselves to develop proof-of-concept and initial recipe prototypes to develop devices which coproduce electrical energy and an equivalent absorbtion of ambient thermal energy. The thermal energy is not in flux between two large scale reservoirs of different temperature. These devices would probably become segmented commodities manufactured by AI that does not need fimancial incentive. The rest of commerce would be worldwide collaborative cooperation without wealth extracting top commanders. Aloha. Charles M Brown lll Kauai Hawaii

The captions are so small as to be invisible.

Coppice agroforestry takes fuel and leaves the sink.

Barça flag is missing. 😢

Where is the pro nuclear argument at the end of every episode

Antonio por favor en español, collons.!!😊

Riveting

Oh no now, we can now also enjoy collapsism in English.

Thanks so much for this lecture. Since I live in Valencia, and the whole coast is a hub of tourism, the sea is f**kd and destroyed - just did not know to what extent. Turiel makes it quiet clear to what type and extent. Kudos!

Antonio is truly a treasure for the world and it's really disgusting how he is attacked by some GND followers here in Spain