One of the best educational uploads I've seen on the climate change issue. However, I have one or two niggles... And additions... 1. The climate debate is well over and has been for decades. It is only the deniers and academically ignorant that debate the subject at all. 2. We are way beyond FUBAR. That is to say, that what changes should have been made, should have been made decades ago. The key words here, are the atmospheric GHG content is long-lived, with a potent latent effect. 3. Positive feedback loops. These are now coming to light and of course, the most concerning of these self-reinforcing feedback loops are the likelihood that when the Arctic ocean water column rises in temperature enough, it will in turn hasten the thawing of the Arctic sediments, which hold vast deposits of sequestered carbon, in the form of methane hydrates. Methane [CH4] is some eighty times more potent as a GHG atmospheric warming agent than CO2 and although shorter lived than the more abundant CO2, when it finally breaks down, reverts to *two* GHG's, notably CO2 and H2O vapour. 4. It is likely that the Arctic will become ice free during summer season very soon... With the Arctic becoming totally ice free within a decade or so. 5. CH4 is *already* outgassing from parts of the Arctic. Regarding action. Governments are not only slow to respond, even to massive public pressure (which currently, is absent..), but also are run and controlled by various factions of the industrial complex, most notably the fossil fuel industry and the military, the latter of which are a major player in prolonging fossil fuel use. As I write this, I am aware that this week, the UK government is stepping up the issuing of fracking licenses.... Whilst the US governance.... Well we all know what they're doing. Or not, as the case maybe. Add to that, the continued exponential increase in global population and all that entails - aspirations, economic expansion etc... And that a vast swathe of the global populace either don't care, don't understand or are not prepared to change their way of life and one can clearly see how futile it is. Also, what is *not* discussed enough, or even at all, is the global aerosol masking, or 'Global Dimming' effect. This is mostly because mainstream science has only just realised that this phenonemon is a real issue. Basically, we all stop producing CO2 and NOX particulates, stop using IC powered vehicles, be that in aviation, public/private transport or shipping and we lose the thin layer within the planet's upper troposphere, itself an albedo blanket and we risk ramping up GW to the next level. The Sixth Mass Extinction is already and arguably has been, underway for centuries. We are losing species hand over fist, due to anthropogenic denuding of the habitats of these species. And we are not just talking large vertebrates here, insect species, so vital to pollination are in *rapid* decline. So agriculture *will* almost certainly fail within the next five to ten years, if not sooner. I need hardly elaborate on what that impact will be on the continued survival of homo sapiens-sapiens. Some of the worlds leading scientists have indicated that the human race could well reach the finishing line, by the turn of the next century... Some of us academics however, believe that this is more likely to eventuate far sooner.... If there is one thing that humans have a serious problem with, it is understanding *Deep Time.* And in my experience, most humans are not even aware of Mass Extinction Events and their causes, the most catastrophic of which were triggered by climate shift events, themselves caused by naturally driven global warming as a result of an increase in atmospheric GHG content. Very few are aware, for example, that the third MEE [Permian-Triassic - 252Ma] - dubbed by academics as - 'The Great Dying', resulted in the extinction of around 96% of the planet's biota. We are in fact decendents of the remaining percentage that survived, not only that MEE, but all subsequent MEE's baring the present one. Moreover, basking in their short-term lifestyles, heavily drunk on hubris, they fail to grasp that the non-avian dinosaurs evolved and reigned for nearly 200 million years... Whereas, the homo genus has barely evolved over 3 million years, with homo sapiens-sapiens having occupied a mere 300 thousand years. Yet, the causes are still debated, that the non-avian dinosaurs were rapidly wiped out by an already stressed planet undergoing global warming with the Chixilub impactor merely nailing home the coffin lid of those species... Not to mention, that many humans are in a coma of faith and totally deny evolution, let alone that time frame, yet believe that humans will progress to the point that will eventually colonise other planets.... Pure hubris. I've heard *all* of the reasons why people believe that our species will proceed well into the future... But when compared to the hard scientific facts, I can see that this is pure hopium.
Hi Deebz. Many thanks for your kind words about the video, and for taking the time to compose the comprehensive and eloquent notes below. You raise very real issues. As your comments show, the challenges are many - and far too many for a single video, which is why I've had to limit the scope of each programme somewhat. However, I have outlined a fair few of the points you raise in previous programmes. There is of course a sizeable contingent of the viewing team who adhere closely to the teachings of well established scientists like Guy McPherson, and I have listened to most of his You Tube content in order to fully understand the concepts he is explaining. I have spoken a lot about feedback loops , and a little about global dimming, in several videos and I have also engaged in some decent debates in the various comments sections with folks who are convinced that any effort to educate the wider public or take any action to mitigate climate change is now futile. These views come predominantly from the Unites States, where this debate (like most other debates over there as far as I can tell) is completely polarised and now impossible to discuss without resorting to personal insult and even ridiculous nonsense like online death threats. We don't have such a culture in the UK. Our problem (as you touched upon) is that no-one gives a damn about Climate Change at all. The challenge we face in my country, and I suspect many countries around the world, is moronic apathy among the majority of people, most of whom are much happier to gaze brainlessly at X-Factor, Apprentice, 'Reality TV' or whatever else the networks can think of to anaesthetise their lazy brains. Like you, I'm also not convinced by the 'let's colonise the solar system' argument. Time's up on that one I think. The money would be far better spent on mitigation action here on earth. I know the fossil fuel industries and others are more or less in complete control of the politicians, especially in The States, but I'm a Building Project Manager by profession so I can't help taking a pragmatic, and fairly bloody-minded, approach to our predicament. I'm determined to keep trying to get as many people as possible to understand the gravity of our situation and to work with people who are trying to find practical solutions. It may all be to no avail, as you suggest - I recognise that this is a very real possibility, especially based on the cast iron facts from the geological timeline that you very clearly lay out in your comments, but I for one feel compelled to keep trying as long as there is breath left in my body. Thanks again for watching and contributing, The channel is still very young - only been going 6 months, so it is hugely appreciated when I receive well considered and well constructed commentary such as yours. All the best. Dave
The time you dedicate to your production is truly appreciated, it comes across very well. I do believe we have rounded too many tipping points. NOTHING is changing along the Eastern Seaboard USA... scratch the increased production of nuclear submarines and drilling. It's going to be a wild ride!
Here it is one year later and the Arctic is warmer than ever and, instead of record forest fires in Sweden, it’s massively widespread fires in Siberia.
Here’s a good article and video clip to supplement your video: www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/blogs/heatwave-hits-greenland-and-melts-11-billion-tons-ice
Thanks John. I'm sure that's a big part of the problem. Many are also just happy to think what they're told to think by media and govt. I watched a good video by The Real News channel on RU-vid just today about how little discussion there is about Climate Change in mainstream media. Very frustrating!
There may be another 'interesting' tipping point waiting for us just around the corner. It is based on the relative latent heat of water as it goes between liquid water and ice and liquid water to water vapor. When water vaporizes it takes 540cal to vaporize one gram of water. When it condenses, it gives out exactly the same amount of heat. When ice melts, it takes 80cal per gram to do this. So here we have a situation in which, if Greenland is bathed in humid air from an ever warmer Arctic Ocean, each gram of water that condenses out of the air gives out enough heat to melt about 6 grams of ice. The cooling of the air makes it more dense and sends it down slope in a density current, sucking more humid air toward the ice. We could develop a sort of Walker cell in which heat is rapidly transferred by convection from the ocean to the ice.
Arctic sea ice loss 1st, Greenland land ice loss second and Antarctic sea ice last. There will be overlap but mostly in that order. Must consider AMOC, polar shift, drift and atmospheric changes from the loss of albedo effect. You must look at previous cataclysmic events such as the Younger Dryas Event. Much more detail and chance related events to understand the CLOCK ⏰ here.
Hi Celestial. It was meant to be a bit of a rhetorical opening statement, as I hope the rest of the video (and the other 16 videos I've published so far) demonstrate 😊 It does of course matter. It matters probably more than other single issue on the planet today.
The British Antarctic Survey would accidentally produce LIDAR analysis of southeast England before they realized they weren't flying over Antarctica. That would actually be useful so no problem.
So at 5:54 Mister Think shows you that there's no such thing as a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) for the Arctic Ocean. Or, if you prefer, shows that there's a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) thing for the Arctic Ocean and it started in 1980 and will end circa 2050 when there's no Arctic Ocean sea ice June 22 to September 22 (that'll be an event for the paleo climate scientists of future millenia, like the PETM). Your choice between the 2 preceeding, either there's no such thing as a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) or there's an eye-blink 60-year Blue Ocean Event (BOE) that's now 1/3rd underway.
Hi Neil. If the arctic warms the temperature gradient between the equator and the arctic diminishes. The intensity of air and water currents between the two regions diminishes. This changes weather patterns including rainfall including where the crops are grown. Easy to confirm this process: basic physics with very unpleasant outcomes
Wow! Experiments and knowledge all in a very well-made vid! You are really good at presenting where we are globally and the obvious crucial and necessary steps to be taken to save our planet. Thank you for the work you do and putting it out on a platform for everyone to access. You rock 🌟
Hi Dalene. An ambitious one this week (which is why it was a day late). I'm glad they're coming over OK. And as always, thank you so much for your support. It spurs me on 😊
"...the obvious crucial and necessary steps to be taken to save our planet."? What exactly might those steps be? The planet will be "saved" because it has survived 5 previous mass extinction events and has been hanging here in the sky for about 4.54 billion years by simply re-adapting itself to every insult that nature has put upon it. However, in each of those 5 mass extinction events, all the various complex life forms that inhabied it died off, the most complex dying first. This 6th event will not be different. (Why do you think they are all called "EXTINCTION" events?)
The first tipping point has already been crossed. That is the disruption of the jet streams. That is a major positive feedback mechanism that is causing the extreme climate events right now. It also brings cold arctic air south, and warm tropical air into the arctic.
Hi Ted. Absolutely true. It looks like feedback systems are kicking into overdrive all over the planet at the moment. Even the good old BBC here the UK (usually notorious for absolute radio silence on anything they see as remotely contentious) has put out a report on Breakfast news this morning outlining some of the real risks the planet now faces. I wonder if they will repeat the report later in the day or whether they hope that by burying it at 6 minutes past 6 in the morning not too many people will see it!?
What disruption of the jet streams? Where do you live that you are so blissfully removed from this steady and regular piece of meteorological happening?
I am not satisfied at all .... the speed is too slow for me ...... I really need ice free arctic fast .... I am tired of waiting and waiting for sea ice to melt ..... Is there a way we can accelerate this sea ice melt please ? I am ready to do anything .... to see the sea ice gone
@Lorne Mccuaig Did you apply the Stefan-Boltzmann equation at 5,900 m with a bulk emissivity of 1.00 or at the Arctic Ocean surface with the present surface bulk emissivity of 0.606 ? I went with the surface because LW downwelling is clearer and Curry can be used. Please inform which you used for your +10 degrees calculation and I might change that. Also, how did you reconcile your summer Arctic Ocean surface temperature being higher than the Pacific Ocean surface temperature just south of Alaska. I constrained my Arctic Ocean surface temperature with the Pacific Ocean surface temperature just south of Alaska but what special ocean feature did you find that caused you to calculate an Arctic Ocean that gets warmer than the ocean farther south even though the ocean farther south gets more solar radiation throughout summer than the Arctic Ocean. Please advise what very special properties caused that given that the Pacific Ocean just south of Alaska has been totally ice free for the last 10,000 years yet has never reached the temperature you calculated for the Arctic Ocean. Or just give me your calculations and I'll compare them with mine (I have 9 pages of calculations) and sort it out myself. Thanks.
Been thinking a long time. Greed does not change, ice will not refreeze and all the crying in the world will not help. The end is nearer than we think. That's my thought from thinking. People will not wake up until it is to late!
@George Lindsey "Been thinking a long time". This is good. I just started thinking a few weeks ago (after 72 years) and now I'm wondering whether I blundered there and should be reverting to my prior modus operandi.
I'm wondering if you did a latent heat ice experiment later on, where the the rate of heating increases substantially after the last sliver of sea ice has melted in the Arctic. I'm sure you know the one, where the energy to melt the ice increases the water temp very fast and to a much higher temperature. This is why I think that when the Arctic Sea ice goes (the blue ocean event) it really will be the beginning of the end. Climate chaos will be extreme from that point on. As for methane, well don't get me started on that. Forget the slightly chilly weather in the USA now and the warmish temp in Australia (understatements intended), I don't think we've seen anything yet.
Hi David. I haven't done that one on camera but I know the phenomenon and certainly it's one that Peter Wadhams and Paul Beckwith (and of course Guy McPherson) have spoken about at length in their various videos. It may well be one of the demos I do as we move into the Spring - there tends to be more time to plan and implement those sorts of things when the evenings are lighter and warmer. Funnily enough, I'm doing a very quick video this week on the slightly cold temperatures in the States. You must have read my mind!
It turns out that latent heat of fusion of ice makes no difference to annual global or regional warming. I had just assumed it, like the rest of you, until I actually thought about it and realized that, of course, it does not. What it does do is alter the spring+summer / autumn+winter balance.
It's already starting since we have no winter here so far, we have rain instead and the coming summer will be scorching and we will quickly understand that we are running out of time.
Yep one year later! Ice still there! polar bears doing fine, oh yeah, that was a LIE! walrus falling of cliffs, oh yeah, that was a LIE! your a lair! but nice primary school demo's!
lol we should not care. we should accept, adapt, and overcome. Flow with mother nature, don't resist her. The earth is always either warming or cooling. That is why we come in and out of ice ages. DUH!
