splitsuit off topic and a bit of a brainteaser but i figured you'd be best to get advice from for this question. If you have two separate simulations. 1 is if turn pot is 100 and hero is in position in a 2 way and always checks his 19% equity/flush draw and no more money ever goes in for this simulation vs simulation 2 where turn pot is also 100 but hero calls a pot bet with 19% equity and when he hits his flush he always gets 10x the river pot in value. In a long term infinite sense, which simulation will generate more profit. It's like sim 1 gets a 19.2% positive penalty and sim 2 gets a 17% positive penalty. in other words sim 2 is getting 32:1 with a 4.3:1 chance which equates to a 17% edge. 530 (ev) divided by 3100 (pot plus reward) = 17% vs sim 1 who gets 19 ev divided by 100 (pot plus reward) which equals a 19% edge. Therefore sim 1 is surely the more attractive long term option right?
am i a nit because depending on player type im folding QJ preflop here. unless they are 3 betting from blinds a ton. almost certainly folding c-bet here.
This was one of my biggest problems, its not 24% its 12% then you likely have to put in more on the river if you call and miss, i nevber considered the reraise option though, thanks for that, i dont like folding when the maths isnt right for one card, but is for 2 but i dont see another way, other than reraising wich i obviously cant do EVERY time.
wait you said x2 if wanna see 1card, x4 for 2 cards while google says x4 if wanna see flop or river x2 if wanna see the river after the turn, imabit confused
i know this is an old video but i have a lingering question that i can't seem to figure out. where does the 4% come from? i understand that the computer software does all the simulations instantly but if i were in a live game, how would i estimate my equity? if the 4/2 rule is only to be applied for the outs that will give you the nuts, how would you estimate your equity in this hand after the flop?
it's really great you're asking these questions and being open minded and I'm gonna keep talking and saying that as if I'm going to answer the question until the video ends without me actually saying anything else.
definitely too loose. calling 3 bets with QJo even in position is -EV...it's likely your top pair outs aren't good because you could be up against AQ, AJ, or even KQ and super unlikely to hit the runner runner straight on that flop. Just fold pre and save yourself the chips. A chip saved is a chip earned
I disagree that it’s ”definitely too loose.” I think it’s dependent on the player in the big blind and your image at the time. I will three bet from the big blind with a much wider range of hands if the opening raise is coming from the button as opposed to an early position. Especially if it’s a player that thinks like @Ryan Fowler (the other person who answered your question) and is likely to automatically fold to a 3 bet here without his strongest range. So calling with a QJo in position against a player like myself will probably slow me down from three betting in the future and QJ is probably ahead of my range. If the player in the big blind is a player that only plays his hand value and is likely to have a very narrow range then, yes, QJo is probably a trouble hand and should be played cautiously.
@@jeremylynskey9265 I agree it's definitely player dependent but I feel like you'd be hard pressed to find someone 3 betting that wide in the big blind. They'd need to be 3 betting as bad as like 97o to make QJo off a profitable call there. Do you really 3 bet that wide from the BB?
@@ryanfowler3154 Calling $30 more preflop you would only need 33% equity. If I were in the BB and would 3 bet with any pocket pair (which I can see myself doing against a player who folds easily to 3 bets with even less.) QJo has 40% equity against that range not to mention position. Add broadway QJo + and you still have the needed 33% equity. Add even more hands to the big blind range and your equity starts going up. I could be wrong but I don't think the BB needs as little as 97o to make calling from the BTN profitable.
You need to calculate conditional probability but the chances of a 10 following a K or vice versa are very very low. I am not sure if we apply it here.
Depending on the opponent, this is an easy ‘raise’ to 150-200 ish. At my regular table this is an objvous continuation bet after a miss. I could see pocket aces, kings or 9s - but there also pocket 10s through Q that won’t feel too happy in this spot.
