ark are the best at having seen tesla the model of an ark is correct but not as an etf the essential failure seems to be that they tried to time the flood who can time the market ? steven said he would leave money with them bec he couldn’t do better yes but he like all of us assumed they were like a spx of tech and the future nobody can time the market the market is being gamed at all times too much money is thrown at start ups Ark suffers because of this their research on individuals companies is really good that’s it hopefully like smr they have their own money mostly in little ark ie tesla ✌🏽
25 cents per mile makes absolutely no sense while Uber and Lyft are charging upwards of a dollar fifty or more per mile why the hell would Tesla come in and give away their services at 25 cents a mile when they can just undercut the current competition at a dollar per mile... the 25-cent per mile number is from Tony... it just doesn't make any logical sense because there's no other competition why would they lower their price to this extremely unreasonably low amount‽ it makes absolutely no business sense... Tesla will dominate the robotaxi service and there will be no one else in the market doing this so ask yourself why the hell would they undercut themselves to this low of an amount instead of just undercutting the current competition and taking market share while making as much profit as possible‽
@@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler "25 cents per mile makes absolutely no sense while Uber and Lyft are charging upwards of a dollar fifty or more per mile why the hell would Tesla come in and give away their services at 25 cents a mile when they can just undercut the current competition at a dollar per mile... the 25-cent per mile number is from Tony... it just doesn't make any logical sense because there's no other competition why would they lower their price to this extremely unreasonably low amount‽ it makes absolutely no business sense... Tesla will dominate the robotaxi service and there will be no one else in the market doing this so ask yourself why the hell would they undercut themselves to this low of an amount instead of just undercutting the current competition and taking market share while making as much profit as possible‽" You will see different price points in different countries. The price in the developed west will certainly differ much from other parts in the world. China is also a country where it may be a little competition at least. And the best way to not encourage competition is to keep low prices. On top of this you have the synergy of different income streams. If you start to offer software services inside the car you will want people to ride as much as possible, which would lower the prices as well.
@@yourcrazybear Good point about different countries And good point about China but I still think the United States has no competition and why undercut themselves...
"Life's good, I'm not poor $75,000 biweekly return, I don't have cancer yet I'm glad you made this video, it reminds me of my transformation from a nobody to good home, honest wife, $75k biweekly and a good daughter full of love ❤️
Hello, how do you achieve such biweekly returns? As a single parent i haven't been able to get my own house due to financial struggles, but my faith in God remains strong.
I raised 75k and Christina Ann Tucker is to be thanked. I got my self my dream car 🚗 just last weekend, My journey with her started after my best friend came back from New York and saw me suffering in dept then told me about her and how to change my life through her. Christina A. Tucker is the kind of person one needs in his or her life! I got a home, a good wife, and a beautiful daughter. Note: this is not a promotion but me trying to make a point that no matter what happens, always have faith and keep living!
For the suburbs we live in, 12.3..6 is ready for unsupervised. Half the times I correct it, the car is right. I use it for all rides and it drives 99% of the miles.
The bigger point about the Robotaxi cost per mile is not the 25 cents, it’s the fact that all of the risk is gone. You don’t have to do anything other than hail the car. No getting insurance quotes, maintenance, payments etc. The removal of the admin burden and risk with all of those is huge.
Thats not how the average human thinks. The First that will feel the benefit are the users of Public Transport. It will Take years before grandpa Bill sells His 1000mile/annum Car.
Just looked up "Body by Fisher" which was on every GM car door sill until 1984. The logo was a horse drawn carriage. Founded sometime in the late 1800's [Lawrence P Fisher wasn't born until 1852] founded his business in Norwalk, Ohio. He had SEVEN sons [and 4 daughters], who would become part of the Fisher Body Co in Detroit. Two of the boyz originally founded Fisher Body [which built car bodies for automobile manufacturers] in 1908 when they were 30 and 28. By 1913 they could produce 100,000 bodies per year. That sounds like exponential growth! And, you guessed it, they were highly successful, expanding into Canada. By 1914 they were the world's largest producer and built for Ford, Krit, Chalmers, GM & Studebaker [and eventually also Abbott, Buick, Cadillac, Chandler, Chevrolet, Church-Field, Elmore, EMF, Herreshoft, Hudson, Oldsmobile, Oakland, Packard, Pontiac and Regal]. They were the "IT" boys of auto bodies! They standardized parts to simplify assembly [which required precision wood tooling equipment] and also innovated to make the bodies more structurally sound because they would vibrate apart if built like horse drawn carriages. In 1919, GM bought 60% of the company and they were producing somewhere around 500,000 units a year. In 1926 it was fully a subsidiary of GM. In 1944 the brothers left GM to pursue other interests [they tried to buy Hudson Motors but failed] and the last of them died in 1972. Later generations still provide metal stamping, seat belts and seat mechanisms/structures. One grandson tried to get into electric buses but that only lasted 2 years [2008-10] and produced only ONE bus. Production is HARD! The whole point here is that one family transitioned WELL from building carriages locally to massively building auto bodies and branching out to other parts of auto manufacturing. What they do now COULD transfer to fully electric cars and probably has at least for "big auto". Tesla might even use them. But the carriage business and even those techniques soon went by the wayside, and they ADAPTED to the change [or lead it for all I know] to metal bodies and then got nicely i out and continued to work in the industry both for GM and on their own. But they HAVEN'T shown the ability to adapt to the current changes in Auto Mfg particularly and they DON'T still make wooden coach bodies and haven't since 1908 while their dad "might" have built carriages until he retired [b 1852, d 1921, so he was 62 in 1908] but I suspect he "advised" his sons in their new business. They made fortunes out of the auto biz, six of the brothers had mansions in Detroit in the 10,000 - 22,000 sq ft range. But they did NOT do it by sticking to building carriages. They saw an opportunity, jumped on it, became the biggest "first mover", got bought out over time and Fisher mostly disappeared in 1984 and GM moved on, becoming the dinosaur that it s.
Average person drives 12,000 miles per year…at .25 per mile, that’s $3000. My car insurance payment alone is that much. My Car payment and energy costs are over $12000 per year. Will make sense for a lot of people to do robotaxi alone.
I think definitely replacing rideshare and taxis, but I’m doubtful of the increase in driven miles that Ark and SMR are predicting. The majority of transport occurs during peak hour on weekdays where roads are already clogged. I can see replacement of existing drivers but I can’t see more usage just because it’s cheaper. Makes no sense
We always think about mobility in cities but there are millions of elderly people who just canmot afford standarf monility or do not have access to it, in less populated regions.
Also you wont have to Pay for parking. For instance I pay 100$ to park at my airport when I go on a 6 days vacation. And pay 3$ an hour in Copenhagen (IF I can find a parking spot).
I agree. I question the .25/mile, especially if there's some minimum surcharge. The place where robotaxi saves is in parking costs. In the U.S., many people who work downtown have to pay to park at work. They may also have to pay for a parking spot if they live in an apartment complex. Airports charge for parking. My train station charges for parking if I stay overnight. Sporting events have expensive parking. Is any of that calculated into car ownership? Also, people pay tens of thousands of dollars extra to purchase a house with a garage.
The key is risk analysis. The markets are and has always been unpredictable. Thus the important point is not how much one might make but what one could lose. trading and holding on speculative stocks/Crypto and even great stocks can test ones ability in the arena of our ability to control ones loss aversion bias…buy high sell low…The market is overvalued by almost all measures like the CAPE and Buffett indicator. Speculation is high with things like meme stocks (are they dead yet?), our kitty dude, Ai dreaming and all.... It is all about how much one can lose during times like these. Does that mean don't invest, of course not but one must access the risk and have a way out if the tide goes out.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.6B'tc to a decent 24B'tc....I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial.landscape.
The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
Also are we going to be renovating garages to no longer have garages, are we transforming Real Estate Development of commercial and retail spaces because parking will no longer be needed... this is insanely disruptive and exciting to me as a realtor and city planner nerd
I dream of a day when you can hop in a robotaxi rv for rent. And instead of flying to your destination you sleep threw the night and wake up where you want to be.
Sleeping in a car isn't that great. And you can't drive from L.A. to N.Y. overnight. 400-500 miles would be my absolute limit for taking a robotaxi. Anything longer, I'm flying.
ARK's calculations of the future value of robotaxis always seem to ignore the impact of politics on the marketplace. As fewer gallons of petrol and diesel are sold, regulators will turn to EVs as the principal highway construction and maintenance funds source. 'Road use' surtaxes based on miles driven are a sure bet and must be considered in the price of TAAS. While this will not halt the adoption of autonomous ride-hailing, it may slow it. Of course, operators will not have a problem initially covering these costs if profit margins are as high as predicted. I wish Tasha would mention this facet of the changing market when she does these videos and in interviews.
It’s already happened Steve, my kids live in a European city and don’t own a car. Instead they use public transport or personal electric mobility, robo taxi will make their life easier and be more convenient and affordable it’s a no brainer, gonna make cities so much nicer an healthier to live in. The best personal car is no personal car 😁👍
Did a quick math on this. So live in nj and work in Ny. On transit, cost 150 per month. Three connections each way. That’s going in twice a week. It’s about 30 mile one way so 480 miles a month. So that comes out to 480x$0.25= 120$. No hassle connecting and transferring between the three trains to get to work. And save $30 per month. I mean, c’mon. No brainer. I wonder if carpooling will be an option. So if you split with someone that’s $60 vs $150. Ummm….what?!!
"that's ridiculous?" (1:42!) “ ‘This sounds ridiculous’ is how every brilliant thing is made,” - Michael Daly in today's review of Oh, Mary (The Daily Beast).
exactly, and for myself, my two daughters will benefit greatly if this becomes big. One of my daughters lives in LA and works as editor in film industry and she struggles with money in that all it would take is for a catastrophic failure in her car and she would be wiped out financially if it were not for myself and my x wife. This is not a matter of if, but when because modern day ICE vehicles suck and they break down often, they designed to break down and when that happens to someone just starting out , it wipes them out. IF she could get around via robotaxi via a phone app that would negate that situation and I cant help to think there is a huge market for that.
Lowering cost per mile to that of public transport will allow for people to save time and find higher paying jobs not near public transportation. Instead of wasting an hour plus to get to a job, it will be door to door. Huge economic implications as well as improving the quality of life
True. I suppose there would also be far fewer parking lots, just lanes dedicated to vehicles dropping off and picking people up - think supermarkets here. Think of all the real estate devoted just to parking lots that would no longer be needed.
*Who will get to scale first?* That is the question. Cruise thinks they can do it because of GM being able to manufacture thousands of Origins… but they’ve essentially shuddered the program. Waymo I actually do think is doing it right for the most part, and is likely more organized of a company as opposed to Cruise, the thing that’s hurting them is their vehicles are insanely expensive. I really do hope Waymo survives long enough to get their Zeekr taxi (purpose built, no steering wheel) on the roads. Around the same time the Tesla robotaxi fleet should begin to wake up. May the best cab win 🚕
US Immigration won't let him in. Congress does not fund the Agency, so bureaucrats invent charges. Steven CAN immigrate. But he's gotta pay A LOT (at least $1,000,000 USD) - like Alexandra Merz did. Wealthy terrorists are welcome! (No offense, Steven! 😈).
Ever since WFH a lot of us are paying hundreds of dollars a month in car and insurance payments for something we may not use like we once did. The market seems to just see it as a taxi replacement service but it would end up being a vehicle ownership and insurance replacement for many.
I’m a TSLA shareholder and I drive for Uber & Lyft. I look forward to having Tesla put me out of the Rideshare business because I’ll make more money as my share price goes way up soon.
The big increase will not necessarily be personal travel, but in delivery services. Retail will be transformed as brick and mortar stores transform to distribution hubs for delivery services. this trend will be accelerated by cheap autonomous transportation. Look at stores that have to secure their goods from shoplifters or looters. Imagine shifting from stores with open aisles and goods available for smash and grab to secure buildings with goods only accessible by prepaid delivery.
According to Tony Seba when autonomous ride hailing starts it’s going to take off very fast and if you’re stuck owning an ice car it will be worthless. TOO EXPENSIVE TO OPERATE!! Banks will load up with cars when people just give them back to the banks. RECYCLING BUSINESS WILL LOVE THAT!!
Banks won't "load up with cars." BMO (Bank of Montreal) stopped auto loans through dealers September 15, 2023. Bankers see ICE value being vaporized and are covering their assess already.
it's not "if", but "when" and "who" will lead the way with this. I think the "who" is Tesla, eventually followed by others. The "when" is questionable but I'll gamble its soon enough to jump on board now.
"half the cost" with Rob O"Taxi? How about 1/4 the cost with Rob O'Van? My revivifier hangs on to a crappy old van, using it mainly to (occasionally) pick up renovation stuff (DIY store delivery minimum = $25). What if Doc could get it delivered - waay cheaper - by a Rob O'Van? Would he'd keep that rusting, depreciating liability in the driveway?
I drove my Model S up to Denver to pick up my Cybertruck. Driving home I realized how important FSD is to me as a driver. I love the Cybertruck, BUT if it doesn't get FSD I'll give it back to Tesla. It's that important to me, and I need a pickup truck. I'd buy a Y, my wife would keep her S, and I would buy a junker pickup for chores. FSD even imperfectly is just so great that I don't want to drive without it. What will it be like when FSD doesn't make mistakes? I WON'T DRIVE WITHOUT IT NOW!
Global GDP: 101.3 trillion USD (2022) Robô Taxis: 28 trillion by 2030 … How will Robô Taxis be worth 1/3 of the world economy in 6 years? 🤷♀️ Love Tasha + Ark and still Long TSLA, But these numbers are outlandish.
Start with their dollar per mile and work your way down over time. Take an educated guess at how many miles the ride hail and taxi business earn now, add growth year over year due to the inexpensive nature of the product, and then extrapolate growth into the future. Not just for America, but for the world. If you do all of that math, you'll see pretty quickly that transportation is more than 1/3 of the world economy. /2cents
Steven, please explain how Tesla will charge all these vehicles? The existing charging network requires a human to plug them in. Obviously, owners will charge their vehicles, but what about Tesla’s fleet?
I would really like to know, why Ark starged selling Tsla again.There is no obligation to sell and there is no rule on how big of a % a stock should be of the whole ETF.
So is the 8/8 date actually cancelled then, have Tesla/Elon said anything yet or it the postponement still a report reporting on a report of an allegation of an anonymous nobody?
@@savrah Did you read what I asked? There is no delay currently confirmed it is all just rumour and hearsay. It is a big deal if the delay reports are not true; it is an outright lie that has been ceased upon and promoted by the mass media and that has had a material impact on the share price. I would say there is a big picture in that statement alone on multiple levels. So it is a big deal.
@@markthomas7279 Dunno, Elon not said anything on X and Tesla not confirmed anything. What is the event anyway, is it just a You Tube/X presentation or are people being invited to Texas?
Someone had a good point. If they address it, then they will have to address everything every time. Tesla has no PR department, so they likely won’t engage in it. Unfortunate for us little guys if you ask me. I personally like to see my portfolio grow lol
Tasha’s 30T here goes way beyond even what she recently predicted. $2600/ 8 trillion by 2029. This is very questionable as many factories (CAPEX) would have to be built to produce the vehicles needed. However, a 4 to 8 trillion business could be possible in 2030, IF RoboTaxi is released and produced in volume before 2026. It will very quickly overtake all other taxi services in large cities. With a few edge business cases. This about 6 Trillion and will take 4 or 5 years to build the factories and produce the numbers of vehicles needed to reach this goal.
You mention the prediction being suspect due to the factories needed to build the vehicles. I suspect this won't really be an issue. There will be less vehicles needed as one robotaxi would transport passenger after passenger all day long. In addition, there are quite a number of Teslas on the road today, each one having the hardware needed for FSD (except for the older ones). The owners who already paid for FSD could just list their cars on the network. Other owners could subscribe to FSD. This could provide a fair amount of robotaxis right away.
Unfortunately you are mistaken , as there is no rule of law or property in all major USA cities robo taxi is simply scrap cash that delivers itself to your place of choice. Even if the old laws were around and enforced , how will you have the police to do it ? If every robo taxi is $15 k how many can you lose before it becomes unprofitable ? If Macdonald’s can’t survive or grocery stores don’t think an unattended taxi company will
Is this the way how China is going to blast the ROW starting in Asia+ a slice for Tesla. The Intel - Nvidia transformation in transportation but this one outside the USA
I'd take the accident rate statistics with a grain of salt. I assume that kilometers driven with FSD are disproportionately on highway and driving in a straight line for a while results in less accidents/distance than driving in the city. Ofc it's just a matter of time until FSD will outperform humans in any setup, but I wouldn't use this metric as it's presented to tell how close we are to this.
@@WatchRichRebuildsChannel Wireless, inductive. The chargers exist but are expensive and not very efficient. I guess some will be installed, most will be regular plug in chargers at the hubs. I guess Tesla already has modelled the easiest and most profitable options.
The size of the new market is way too high and logic is strange from many consomers. For many a car(s) are more expensive as their homes and use a car say on average 1 hour per day. We sleep say 7 hours on a matras and spend close to nothing on a super bed!! Logic is simply not there so having your own (status) car will not disappear that quick. My thought: buy a decent clever EV below $20k + solar panels and save around 50% versus an ICE car and control/own 90% of my time myself and use a robo when on holiday.
Aging populations may also find both medical and financial reasons to use robotaxi services, and in that regard it is worth pointing out that the Boomer generation retires during this current decade. About half are out of the work force now, most of the rest will follow by 2030. Also keep that thought firmly in mind when considering home uses for Tesla's Optimus robots. We have a very interesting decade of marketing and selling and using and reporting ahead of us, with Tesla AI products and energy products playing right in the middle of all that lovely redefinition of family and individual budgets.
I don’t think they’re pretty close, there’s always a delay. Yes, my car can drive me around. I have 12.3.6, but it makes a lot of mistakes. The other day it almost hit a cyclist if I hadn’t applied the brakes. They’re always seems to be a setback. I have very little faith.
FSD hurdle... horizontal single rail road blocks. Check out Dr Know it all with Scott Walker. Has Tesla solved this problem yet? Serious issue if not...
Steven there is a reason why people are not taking Ark seriously perhaps that is because they have been wrong for many times in the past? (ps Tesla makes up 15% of my portfolio, long term investor here)
25c per mile implies a journey cost of 75c for 3 miles. A robotaxi service would always charge a minimum fee for turning up and providing the service of say $2, $3 or $5. or more. For this reason short journeys are not cheap. This negates the idea of people shifting from buses or personal cars to robotaxi en masse.
People are going to want to be in a car without some weirdo that wants a tip or wants a chat! Most people will want to be alone! And the long haul (road trip) will be used all the time. I think people will drive more and fly less. I’d rather go by car somewhere if I’m not driving.
I think they do not weant to do that because they need thousands people and HD maps that are always correct. That is much more expensive than a 500 Gigawatt IT center in Austin.
