Arthur Berman: "Within 2-3 years the World will be very aware of the Problem"-Oil Production Decline 

"Is this a joke? I have been hearing the same old story since about 1975." Uhh, and the US reached peak production of conventional oil in the 1970s. Natural gas and shale plays and deepwater drilling just kicked the can down the road a little longer, but the bottom line is industrialized civilization will start downshifting to something much smaller, simpler, and less industrialized in this century.

No oil, no burritos

@@Withnail1969 have you seen the movie society of the snow yet? hopefully my burritos won't have human meat in them! I like will rees's plan, breed draft horses and ox for sustainable farming they don't need oil

Of course it was suppose to be Berman, not German sorry

Finding ways to recycle it is better from an energy perspective I think. Problem is of course that most plastic manufactures make "estetically attractive plastics", colored or transparent that are hard or impossible with todays recycling plants to reuse. We might come to a point where plastics made from petroleum is made into synthetic fluids that can be used but it would likely be very costly in terms of energy input for the conversion process to take place. Cheers, Johan

"Don't worry, Doomberg confirmed with assurety the world will be producing 140 to 150 million barrels per day by 2050. " Yes, let's trust folks who write an economics blog rather than someone who is an expert in the oil and gas industry.

I heard that during his interview with Nate. Insane

@greenftechn wild, I'd hide behind a chicken too making those ridiculous claims. Lol

@@greenftechnwasn’t his logic that we would produce that much because we would have to so therefore we would find a way to? I’m skeptical of his views

and everywhere else in the world - they control it and scare you to death.

"Massive" is a vague word. Look up global consumption per day and divide "massive" by that.

Canada is an important oil producer as one of the very few that has increased oil production on an annual basis since 2010, along with US. (See the graph I made in the full episode of part 2 I link to in the descriptions above). But the fact remains, US shale oil production constitutes about 90 % (!) of all world oil growth in production since 2010. If you do the math this means that once this start to decline on an annual basis, world production falls too, there are simply not enough volumes to compensate for such shortfall in production from other producers. And remember Canadian oil from tar sands is extremely energy intensive, if the world were to rely on it to a large extent this would inhibit economic growth and push inflation much higher (but again, the volumes in terms of million barrels/day replacing US shale oil production are nowhere to be found realistically according to Berman). Cheers! Johan

Solar is cheapest. China installed as much solar last year alone as half the size of the current US grid. Solar wind and batteries are the future of our energy grid.

Solar is not the cheapest guys, and there is no free lunch in Thermodynamics... Apart from 2 very promising but still partially theoretical projects, nothing comes even close to long chain Hydrocarbons. Sry to break it to you guys, but *&+=# will hit the fan pretty soon I am afraid. Anyways, thanks to the Host and Arthur ❤

Hi! Saudia Arabia has oil reserves that are relative cheap and accessible in terms of extraction and thus high energy return on energy invested. Shale oil vs conventional oil in Saudi Arabia is literally like comparing pears with apples. Art explains that currently the shale oil producers are going after the best segments of the shale plays to be able to motivate the extraction. The low hanging fruit/the areas with highest energy return have already been extracted. With time there a fewer and fewer shale plays that make economic sense to extract from and the decline rate in wells at shale plays are over 70 % within 1-3 years which means it requires energy intensive/costly drilling just to keep up with high decline rates in wells that have already been drilled. So no, you cannot even compare Saudi Arabias reserves with shale oil reserves anywhere. Cheers! Johan

complete utter nonsense. The majority of capped wells are not shale.

It is unique, jump to the chapter "shale oil outside US in part 2 where Art talks about it. There are some significant shale plays in Russia and a few other places under development but nothing that can compensate a decline in US shale oil production according to Art. I might make a clip about that trw. Cheers, Johan Link to part 2 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-6J9vmQYoiSg.htmlsi=ETZnL68dytnuWnHn

We need to do that and much more, totally agree on that! I just recorded a talk with solar entrepreneur and inventor, Ron Swenson he talks about both conserving/not wasting energy at the mass scale we do today as well investing in solar energy across the board to prepare for a decling world oil and natural gas production. But energy conservation and solar energy won't be enough, the effects of a declining oil production in particular, will have on the economy will be hard felt. We need to adapt and prepare for that. Cheers! /Johan

Extending supply extends pollution. Lowering consumption 50% means debt doesn't get paid off as quickly, people already have 30 year loans and if consumption equals the economy how will this be possible?

Oil is a volume commodity, efficiency in production relies on sheer volume, prices for that 50 percent will cost thd same as the 100 percent

@@bedeorama9881 price wont matter until basic societal need can be met . And with 50% or more savings that can be assured for decades possibly a century . And that's not more our problem

​@@antonyjh1234the simple answer is that is that it wont. The economic growth system is based on assumption that we can increase debt today to pay it pay in a "larger economy" in the future. But whether it happens within 2-5 years or a few years later does not change the fact that it will happen eventually. Infinite growth on a finite planet was a silly idea to start with, a child can understand that. But the longer we can prepare for decreasing oil and natural gas supply the better we will be equipped live in post peak world. Cheers, Johan