Being from Argentina, I couldn't agree more with Balaji. I lived thru the last hyperinflation in 1989 and it happened so fast that nobody was able to exit on time. It is crazy that the country was not able to recover since then. It is probably the reason for having a fast-growing crypto community here.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Collapse is generous 1st time in our history with a full generation that wasn't taught financial literacy, civics, Google fixes their problems if their parents don't do it for them. Reckoning for participation trophies is incoming.
@@Aziz__0 The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
I think Balaji (and BTC maxis in general) may benefit from picking up a history book and looking at the number of bank failures during the late 80's - it was nearly 2000 banks that went under over a course of ~5 years. Did the sky fall? Did gold go to a $100,000? Or did the country (and the Dollar) just keep chugging along? For the US Dollar to hyperinflate would require that the world look at the Chinese RMB or BTC as somehow a safer currency (while China is dealing with their own banking crisis and saber ratting about invading Taiwan...yeah right)(and shortly after BTC/crypto is still washing off the stink of SBF and all the other blowups) Just because the guy happened to get a prediction about Covid right a few years ago doesnt mean he's turned into a prophet (go check out Michael Burry's track record since the big short...it isnt good)
Not saying I agree with Balaji's timeframe to hyperinflation, but there will come a time when people stop trusting USD. To say that today is the same as the 80's is a stretch. Bitcoin didn't get any stick from SBF, etc. In fact, if you hold bitcoin in self-custody, you're unaffected. The only people affected by those blowups were people who trusted others with the custody of their holdings and people who were using their holdings to play fiat games for fiat gains.
Here is what you are missing from your analysis: a) The debt to GDP level in the 80s was much much lower than what it is today. b) In the 80s or even in 2000s, U.S was a sole superpower. Not the case today. c) Rest of the world has been rapidly de-dollarizing since last 10 years. Russia, China, India, Iran etc are trading amongst each other outside USD. d) Saudi Arabia recently hinted that it could price oil in Yuan. This was unthinkable 5 years ago.
@@tz6516 what good is anything if you Don't have a house? I had to move back with my folks after marriage and dating. Since I stopped seeing women, I actually got to work and invest
@@michaellamont2605 In a time of war, you find your purpose. Priorities become clear. Being self-centered and materialistic, is a luxury of peace time.
Maybe the fiat crisis is intentional and will accelerate the ushering in of our CBDC future. This is where crypto failed miserably. We all gave up on the idea of a peer to peer currency in favor of HODL to get rich and trading alts & NFT’s. 90% of the people in this space now have no clue about the original cypher-punk ethos.
I think it is more likely we will see a mcarthy esque witch hunt on crypto in the next 90 days - yelling bank run and encouraging people to buy BTC while you hold bags and are a shareholder in the US' biggest crypto exchange seems to me like there may be some grounds for the SEC to press charges. Here in Australia the regulator has ordered banks to monitor exposure to crypto and fintech startups after SVB.
True, the decentralized movement has been divided by tribalism and greed. The takeover of nodes by centralized actors will be wedge that fractures the power of the peer to peer network. First, they attack the exchanges and the banking system, exert full control over the movement of money. Then dominate the bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems while a CBDC is implemented with minimal resistance.
Exactly. Health will be critical. Prescriptions, if even available, will be hyper-inflated. Crime will escalate. Personal protection needs to be obtained before the crisis.
The smart thing to do at this point is convert all your alt coin holdings to bitcoin. It’s the only one sufficiently decentralized and the only one all regulators agree.
Just look at the balance sheet: USA: $150 trillion net assets, GDP $24 trillion, currency in which 60% of commodities are traded, energy independent, food supply independent, world’s strongest military; crypto: some enthusiasts. You decide.
The banks are not broke and the money is not gone. There is a duration problem due to the Fed’s sharp increase in rates, but the US Treasury is backing all deposits to help the duration issues. Not great, but not the end of the dollar or US banking system. Nothing I heard here leads me to a different conclusion.
The banks are illiquid, not insolvent! Big difference! An illiquid bank will eventually become liquid again as their long-dated bonds mature. An insolvent bank will never become solvent, because they have actual capital losses that can never be recovered.
Not that different if you consider time. No one wants 1% returns over 10 years. People are going to want to take their money out of the banks and put it elsewhere leaving the banks holding the fiat or the securities. Either way those are worth less as we continue with monetary inflation over time
@@anmolllll Banks can borrow money from the Fed, and use the bonds as collateral if they are illiquid. They can't do anything but to declare bankruptcy if they are insolvent. Hope you can see the difference now!
I have put quite a bit into a variety of blockchain currencies, including Bitcoin. But I can't put everything in. How will we pay our mortgage, or utility bills, property taxes etc.? I would imagine they would demand those payments be made in dollars.
You don't pay them, no one would be paying them.... don't forget to go online for your digital i.d so we can issue you with an emergency crisis aid parcel.
@@JaguarWisdom-9 Sure they will. What do you think the FEDNow program is for? If I get my money out, how do I get it back in when I need to use it? Grocery stores etc will all be using the Leviathan payment system, but I'm certain they won't be allowed to take or even convert my Bitcoin. So I have my electricity shut off, my house in default, no ability to purchase food etc. I'm not liking that in any way, but unless there is a way to use the value stored in blockchain currencies, I'm SOL! And they will be happy to see it (deserves me right for not playing along).
@@nicosilva4750 Sorry dude, I'm English, we're facetious. So, no one would be paying for anything with cash under hyper-inflation as the money is worthless... it's paper at that point. Who are you going to pay your mortgage to if the bank that issued your mortgage and holds the deeds in lew, is now bankrupt and under the control of another entity... who do you pay your mortgage to? My guess is that they will just fiddle the numbers until they are ready for CBDC's, oh there will be another pandemic at some point as well.
Yes: Massive UL + inflation is a terrible position for our banking system , but consider -- 1) Banks receive Fed liquidity (par value HTM assets) 2) Bank run met with Fed liquidity 3) Banks repay Fed when HTM assets mature (at par) 4) Credit replaced with fiat, limiting inflation impact. Risks remain but Balaji style doomsday..?
Banks dont even need to repay until HTM assets mature. A lot of the assets are things like 10 Y treasuries that are only down 10-20%. They can just collect interest coupons for the next 2-4 years and wait until the fed drops rates again and their bonds will be at par in a few years without holding for 10 years.
Bet is ridiculous as Siam Kidd pointed out. It’s a win win if you take him up on the offer. Buy 4 bitcoin (roughly 128k), put up your 1 coin, he’s right you end up with 3 bitcoin worth 3mil. He’s wrong you take his million fiat. 🥴
He’s not making this bet to make money. He said he hopes he loses it and is just trying to sounds the alarm bells. He doesn’t really know when it’ll happen, but seems very sure it will eventually
I think you're missing something. If BTC goes to $1m due to hyperinflation, 1 BTC still only buy roughly the same as today's 1 BTC. You know about the German hyperinflation, right? Where the wheelbarrow was worth more than the millions of bills in the barrow? Well you're kinda saying, "You can't lose. This way you'll end up with four wheelbarrows full of worthless cash that nobody wants". You won't get rich in dollars, dollars will be worthless.
Then keep your money in the bank. And August one you can show up here and be critical of his prediction. But now that you have been warned, would it not be prudent to safe-guard some of your family’s wealth? What if he is correct?
@@tz6516 Click Bait fren I watch this on several channels and he closely recites it exactly every time -almost like he is reading from a script . Most people (even normies) are aware the US dollar is losing dominance But BTC to 1Million in 90 days ... No chance
Yes they have, but gold is problematic. A family’s wealth in gold is difficult to hide. Even more difficult to protect. Even more difficult to transport. BTC solves those problems.
the fact that Balaji is willing to put up so much money's worth to get the attention across to as many people as possible to hear the alarm of something so pertinent is so admirable I feel , what a great show, f$#king scary stuff, here we go I guess !!!!
One big flaw in this gentleman’s thinking is this… that people will flock to BTC. I’m very pro-Crypto, and 95% of the people I talk to don’t understand BTC or crypto and do not trust it. I agree that the system is cracking … but, Even when I try to explain the financial sovereignty, the current fiat and banking system flaws, etc… most people just aren’t into it yet.
This is very important information (48 min mark) where the trap of US funds in 4 “too big to fail banks” is the perfect scheme for the devious machinations behind the full control over the US Banking system, which paves the way for the successful implementation of a digital dollar and ensures full compliance without risk of Americans fleeing to Bitcoin. This is the real reason behind all of this. Great content.
people are running to gold before BTC....look at the numbers. Gold is almost at its ATH of 2075, whereas BTC has a long way to go to reach its ATH of 69,044.
Gold is fine in small quantities. But if you want your family’s wealth out of fiat, where do you safely keep that much gold? Bitcoin is difficult to track. Difficult to find. Easily transported.
Bankless or green pill did a show on a local token that in a couple cities people were incentivised to work the token into the businesses around their home. I think mayb start small with mom and pop shops and the network will naturally spread
What could really trigger all of this is a fire sale of treasuries by foreign institutions. Lesser known headlines of the past few weeks (Saudi selling oil for yuan; China brokering peace between Saudi and Iran) could help motivate such an event. Watch next for China negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine, using yuan as motivation.
He didn't answer the question where do the withdrawals come from? The average person is not thinking of leaving the banking system so why would there be a bank run and all banks close?
Quick counter argument: Like the US, China has undergone as much if not more QE in the last 15 years. China's M2 is currently at about 275 trillion CNY or approximately 40 trillion USD, whereas America's M2 is only at about 21 trillion USD. For reference China's annual GDP figure is far lower than that of the US and unlike the USD the CNY isn't a global reserve currency, meaning China can't easily export its inflation to other countries like the US does, so logic dictates that China shouldn't be running a system with higher M2 than the US. The fact that the CNY hasn't gone to zero shows there's plenty of room left for the US to further increase M2 without breaking the USD. But China also tightly controls its media and any form of currency conversion so it makes sense to assume the US will start to tighten controls too at some point, if it hasn't already started doing so. Bottom line, the state has a plenty of tools in its arsenals to make work what that shouldn't work. The same goes for breaking what that should work (eg Bitcoin), if they really want to kill it.
Brownstone Institute has published an article by Michael Senger criticising Balaji’s threads on the pandemic + lockdown. He seems quite unapologetic about his so called pearls of wisdom at the time (although he did threaten to sue Senger for defamation). The only lesson we need to learn from the pandemic - technocracy has failed and the experts will lie to you to advance an agenda. The pandemic has brought us much closer to the authoritarian world of CBDCs.
You guys need to look into US imperialism and meddling in relation to Latin America. The meddling that has been going on by the US in Brazil is non-stop
Just because the dollar may collapse doest mean that bitcoin will pump that hard it would be nice but I don't see it happening. Governments won't adopt it fully I think countries will use their own crypto or one that already exists but we will see.
I think essentially th most important thing is get get our lives in order as in, stop chasing money, as if u can eat it. Covid lock downs was a crazy time how people kept being money hungry. While other people moved, & followed their dreams.. etc. I think all of this is not just abt money, but an opportunity..
I don't think this is about being greedy with money - it's about survival. How can you trade with other people if you have a poor form of money? Unless, you're all about being self sufficient ( grow your own food, make your own clothes, build your own house, etc).
He is on the hype train, I understand his points however his BTC maximalism throws me off. There's no infrastructure as the USD has to move around easily and smoothly between nations for BTC, I don't think this will be an abrupt change at least for retailers level, I see more chances for RNB to be honest.
He can't be too bright, he has wireless headphones. I tried them when they first came out, and I listened to them for about a week straight and when I took them off, my ears rang for a month.
Many claims made by Balaji pivots to tangible-reality... to infer credibility to his claims. Reminds me of trying to edit a Wikipedia page... [citation needed]
