Betting Strategy That Works | Make an Income Betting on Sports 

Want to get more specific? Check out this football strategy upload here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-1NYOEfSw-DE.html

There's only one strategy....bet against arsenal and man utd 😄😅

I understood the concept of expected value being greater than the implied probability from the odds, in order to make an expected profit. But this still doesn't change the fact that the probability that a bet with 4 odds has approximately 25% of winning, which is quite low

Respect bro! We love doing small 2 team parlays

I recently lost my job due to covid, so I decided to start a youtube channel. Wish me Luck

This is why we all need to be using an exchange! In football the odds lose their efficiency after kick off, some prices will be terrible value while others will be amazing. It is your job to exploit these inefficiencies by using pre match and in play information. Form a plan of action and stick to it, stake no more than 3% of your bank on any one trade and use this 3% wisely. In other words the 3% is your maximum risk so stake according to risk.

when he said please after the subscribe suggestion ontop of the money strats in this channel i just couldnt refuse the sub button

Really love your concepts man. Nice work

Hi Caan, Great work. Subscribed your channel and started following.

Thanks for sharing. I've had a few losses this year and when I think back I was betting on my opinion on how I perceive the event (I.e the player/team) rather than the odds value. It's made me re evaluate how I look at match betting now. Hopefully will help me raise profit + ROI.

The teams/players/horses do matter, since you need a baseline percentage to workout what a value bet looks like. Ofc it matters a lot less if your just trading positions, since your just looking for changes in the market.

Awesome stuff mate, kudos!!

I like the contest section on a particular site. Always loved squares. It's just a big game of chance. Also getting to bet on the ufc is pretty fun. I just bet very little with low probability. I bet a ko or tko in the last fight that was +1000 and won. Only bet $15 so it was $150. I just didn't believe the hype of O'Malley.

When you thoroughly understand "value betting" combined with the "law of large numbers" then all you need is patience and discipline and the rest is history.

Keep the good work!

It is all about value and it amazes me that people bet more the shorter the odds are rather than the more value they get. I had £900 on a 100-1 horse before because it was huge value but I rarely ever bet that big on 2-1 shots.

Hello Caan! Thanks for posting this video! I have a question. If i know the true odds, how do you increase the odds to gain value? Some odds posted are greater or lower than all 3 true odds calculated by me. We must calculate the true odds of all bookies to make comparison with?

My selection has a 0.0001% chance of winning. I’ll become a millionaire one day. Hmmm 🤔 that day may be a lot later than my house repossession, bailiff notice, divorce court order etc.

Nice info. I will probably be on ur website in no time.

Just needed to add bit on using the kelly criterion for bet size on your last thoughts about raising bet size.

It's all common sense really, but very well put together and easy to understand. Cheers again Caan

good simple walkthrough of how odds are compiled and how to find value bets.

Great video mate 👍

always providing helpful tips in your videos, i like it

Awesome stuff Cann!

Opening lines do take into account public perception not always true implied probability and line movement isn't always indicative of money in/out. Weather could change, a player could be out, other things can move the line and change the true probability . Then you need to find a book that is offering you lines that are better than open and hope they keep your account open, not many books do that and most wont for long. There is a strategy opposite to this most swear by called steam chasing. Everyone has a 100% winning strategy, it's just not the case.

I used to work out the over round in the betting shops before a race to gauge value. You have to take into account with horses people will back favourite names, jockeys which distort the pricing. All a bookie wants is his little bit of the pie.

You speak such sense PROBABILITIES are what Our focus should be on.

I think when you combine value with knowledge of teams, you have a dream scenario. Teams do matter because they are human being with emotions and tendencies. American sports especially, teams get streaky (hot and cold). Also, sometimes, good teams getting embarrassed last time out, 3 games in 4 nights, etc can all impact a teams value that night. I find with basketball and hockey, I find tremendous value in the live betting market (alternative betting), where ill get odds of something happened at 40% but its above that. Than if the line moves enough in my favor, ill either let it ride or sometimes try and hit the middle. very hard to do with soccer but a sound strategy for Most American sports.

Simply explained, good work Why are people so negative regarding your bookie vid.......keep it up.

firstly thanks for taking the time to share the video. You are right, price dictates everything, if something is bigger than you think it should be, look into backing it. Question, if something is 3-1, it should win 25% of the time, is that 3-1 on the video with bookmaker over-round factored in however? Also it looks like from the video, the majority of your trading is done on Betfair, have you factored in commission payments? Thanks

Great video! The tip with the true odds of the betting exchange was especially eye opening. I’ve got a question related to that, wouldn’t you have to consider commission into these true odds too? As in, the odds of the betting exchanges are the closest to being true odds after subtracting the commission?

Hi Caan , in play with bookmakers though u can still get value. Is that correct. Because of price drift 👍🏼

The most profitable strategy is to find out what lines I'm taking in a market and bet in the opposite direction, lol.

olá cann sou brasileiro e gostaria muito de comprar seu curso iniciei no trader em abril de 2016 operei com futebol e lay galgos mais nem um dos 2 obtive sucesso , agora imigrei pro cavalo conheço tudo sobre odds , percebi que o comportamento das odds de cavalos osilão muito rapido..não teria como eu obter seu curso com legenda brasileira?

Not sure where to post this. Been watching your videos & betting on Betfair exchange on a laptop without any software as yet, although have looked at Geeks Toy but not very computer literate. Also have the book but halfway through it. Right have laid a horse on Betfair & then backed it with a smaller amount to cover the bet which meant whichever horse won I was making a profit of about 10-15% of my original stake. The cash sign also comes up with the offer of a cash out !! do I take that as well or ignore it ?

Ur great sir. Thank you.

This applies to games like roulette because the odds are absolutely mathematically fixed. It’s not the same for horse racing as you cannot truly gauge what the true mathematical probability of winning is. You can have the wisdom of the crowd but that’s not the same as absolute mathematical truth as in roulette. The underlying fundamentals are obviously correct however.

So if the most accurate reflection of true odds is on the betfair exchange then how would you find better odds than the exchange? Wait for inplay/race on the exchange to bet?

Still don't get how you identify a price of good value. Like in football betting, there so many markets. How do you know the price to go for?

Well explained .. thanks

Hi Caan, solid content like usual. Do you have any suggestions on which bookmakers allow for really fast live bet placement? I've been using a few bookmakers that take up to 11 seconds just to process a live bet which is ridiculous and a lot of value is lost when I miss good prices. If you could even point me in the right direction that would be great!

It was suggested i follow your channel to enlighten myself..so here i am.

Thanks Caan you make it look so easy .

I take it you keep track of all of your wins / losses on a spreadsheet. Stupid question but are you ever tempted to just stop when you hit the top, just to stop you from chasing the top again?

Then you loose a ticket on a fix 1.45 football match.

Great video - cheers

Great video!

Just started properly gambling low stakes to I find my succeful markets I'm up couple hundred with goals over under

The best strategy is to bet against your friend bet :))) because they will always loose :))))

Is there any other strategy apart from arbing because bookmakers do communicate of check with others so arbing wouldnt work.

It makes sense for horse racing but what about other sports? Do you have insight into that? For example, parlay bets on NBA, NHL and NFL? Ive been lucky on all three these past seasons but it is not consistent

Thanks Caan, finally the truth about betting, no one will believe you though as most think the colour of the jockey's under trollies are a good indicator and add value. I discovered the maths a few years back and just went on a value betting spree and was eventually gubbed to death. Great fun. Nowadays I use value as a basis for my tipping site as that makes a lot more money and is zero hassle. If my subscribers knew I never ever watch a horse race or look at the form they would have several fits but as you say you could be betting on three legged donkeys and make money if the price is right. I automated the tipping using the BF API and am actually looking for some co-operation on a new project for auto arbing/value betting. Let me know if you would be interested or know someone who is.

I bet on goals and corners !

Cool video. Where can we get before a race and opening (as soon as odds are available) price data to run some algos?

Would it be possible to do the opposite and look for a horse to lay that is underpriced with the bookmakers? Less chance of having your account limited then.

On a Saturday with full list of football fixtures I like to bet on both teams to score yes with odds of evens or above that way I usually always make a healthy profit

Very new to your videos but I’ve been on BF 15 years and your Thesis is sound. At the end of the video what is the rough costs for your education material referred to at your caan website . Thanks

Hello Mr Caan Berry. We don't need to speak too much grammar when we can quickly bring out example to buttress our point. Here are boxing bouts for 31/10/2020; make your picks and let's work out the outcome on 01/11/2020 here. Thanks!!! 1. Lamont Roach 1.08 Neil John Tabanao 9.8. 2. Marlen Esparza 2.41 Sulem Urbina 1.67 3. Bektemir Melikuzier 1.05 Alan Campa 12.0 4. Elwin Soto 1.06 Carlos Buitrago 9.5 5. Jamie Munguia 1.26 Tureano Johnson 4.18.

This video is good for me because all I know is the roulette table in gta 🤣

might be a dumb question, say your bet is losing. EG a football team is losing 2-0, should you cash out or should you let all bets run?

good video, you are right, a succesfull bettors must be well prepared with a good strategy

Great tips

Which betting site do you use or recommend

What about surebets (arbitrage betting)? Is Betnetto surebets good platform? I overheard some guy at the restaurant talking about how he earn 2k monthly by playing surebets. Can this be real?

Hey Caan, in your opinion, what would you say is the number 1 horse 'Trading' strategy 'That Works' pre or post-off..scalping, front runners, b2l'ing steamers, or another? &what racing market would best suits the strategy

My friend and I live together but for some reason the only way we can use Caesars is on one computer, hence one IP. We only bet the minimum and don’t go ape with huge bets. Do you think they’ll figure it out, or even care, that we’re on the same computer?

Thanks for the video! The mentioned strategy works pretty well in sports I think. Am I right?

Caan I know you're advocating taking value here, which is of course, the only way to make long-term profit. I agree with all that, but you're saying the best way to ascertain the relative 'value' or true odds of an event occurring is to look at the exchanges near the off, again true, this is when the exchange is most accurate as the odds are ultimately dictated by supply and demand and the money changing hands, and the wisdom in numbers means this is the truest price, the problem is how can you then find value elsewhere? If you found a bookie offering a higher price than the exchange near the off, I'd like you to let me know which bookie that is? Because all you'll get at that stage is liveshows. And if you consistently do manage BEFORE the liveshows to get higher prices with bookies, you know what will happen, as you've shown on other videos. You'll just get banned. So how can this actually be applied? If you're talking about finding value actually on the exchanges, how, as the price changes so does the relative implied probability? It's kind of like reverse logic. You're using the current trading price to give you the 'true odds' but you can't beat the current trading price? If the price goes out, then now the new price is the current trading price, so now that is the 'true odds', you see what I'm saying with this? Where do you get the value from?

I still dont get how you find value. Is it just looking at the favorite? and determining if the bookies odds are higher? Because if its any horse than you need to factor in the odds of it winning and it sounds like you're saying to just get that from seeing what punters are betting on exchanges. If its a horse that is 6 places away from the favorite in terms of odds and the bookies have higher odds than its value. Even though its not likely to win are you saying thats still value and it should be bet on?

What about backing a horse inplay when the odds increase or backing the draw in soccer after the 1st goal goes in. Is that value betting?

Thought this was pretty standard.

Funny how you didn't tell anyone how to find value in the end. For that people need to sign up to your courses. Which is probably how you make actual money.

Made a whole document that calculated the chance of team a or b winning chance of scoring in first 10 min 10-20min etc against each time, bet 25 ish times a day and average a 0,8% return a day

hi do you know why betfair dont work in Montenegro , ive been using it for almost 6 years and now i cant reach site at all .

So basically put Ur life savings on red or black

I really wish I understood this video!

I trade the Financial markets. My win loss ration is approx 50%. BUT.................and this is the way I've been consistently profitable ( my winners are 3-4 times bigger than my losses. Caan.......You speak such sense PROBABILITIES are what Our focus should be on. There are No guarantees in trading or betting................but boy, can we put the odds in Our favour, if we know what to look for. I used to trade on emotion, with no focus, no plan - shooting from the the hip. No surprise, I lost alot of £££££££. Do your homework people, and focus on edge. Those who don't know what edge is...........YOU DON'T HAVE ONE!!!

Hope I’ve got this correct - are you saying that if 5 mins before the off a games chance of over 2.5 goals 65%, can I then wait for the odds to increase to over 2.00 in play to capture value?

I want to learn more on betting

Hi your information is insanely useful 👍 But my question is why not just take the best price in exchange markets since they provide the best price and push it even further to get even better price Than go through all that hassle with soft bookies and get restricted and sometimes they refuse to pay what you earn I don't get that really ??,

I like to look at a horse when they come on the track during the post parade and how they look, that gives me a yes or no pick

I agree with your concepts, but believe that 'value' can only be found using large amounts of historical data (which exists). All quant hedge funds are relying on Big Data (for which they pay enormous sums), horse racing is no different. So relying on odds changes in the final minute(s) doesn't meet that criteria. We logged odds data from 90 seconds out , every second, and found no correlation between falling odds (so called 'smart money') and better outcomes. And even if that could work, you'd have to have a reliable signal that odds will drop *naturally* from this point to race time, and take the higher odds. And when I say 'naturally' I mean The Crowd is doing this independently and not following 'group think' while watching the screen. I do agree about the horse (or team) being a proxy for odds, there's no reason to get fixated on a horse.

Could i get an opinoin on Both Teams to Score plus Win?

Do you bet or making these videos for money on RU-vid? Because I think making money from betting is way easier and huge if you can prove how effective your methods are... #Laser

Caan, what is your opinion on the westbrom brentford game this evening? What should I be looking at? Thanx

I great strategy i have found to make steady profit is playing for a cash out. Maybe not the best for long term, however i will do a football acca on say 6 games to not finish 0-0. Now 0-0 isn't a common score in football but it can happen, but the likelyhood is, 4 or 5 of those games are going to have a scorer. At that point you cash out. Its rare that i lose on this and even though im not making mega profit its adding up. A few £30-£150 wins every day or 2 goes a long way. And the more you have you more you can essentially put on for larger profit margins.

the only way to beat the bookies is with a balaclava a shotgun a 2.0litre jeep and a 4.45pm attack better odds means more value and success rates

"Probabili'y"

On the toss of the coin the bookies won’t give you evens on heads or tails, they’ll give you 9/10 (or possibly 4/5) on both. A mark-up of 10-20%. As you say it isn’t rocket science.

Alternate point spreads is what I'm hearing

Please I have a problem with your no 1 betting strategy video. It is a good video but I do not understand the calculation from minute 3:21-4:00.PLEASE could you further simplify it?And also relate it more to football betting

says dont follow a tipster that wants you to click their link....oh btw guys...hes 2 links to other videos I've done ;) I joke of course but theres some irony in their somewhere

You are good man Caan 🙏

Best way to learn betting here

i can tell you now if i put a bet on the higher 3 , 4 dollars on tennis you 99percent chance of losing

Got a question caan. Do you think that racing betting will remain the same after this pandemic. Eg. Do you think the bookies will all survive and if they do will things be the same as before with regards to concessions and prices?

Very very helpful video mate But whats the benefit of it when youll get banned eventually for taking big odds? Is exchange markets same as sportsbook will banned you ?

What odds shall we look from betfair? the back odds or the average between back and lay? which are the closest to reality? thanks

Still not understanding what you mean by finding true odds. Im a bit lost to be honest. Im a big fan of yours but i need a better understanding.