Very good video, I've read most of the comments below, it seems people are not willing to put the effort in and wish to be spoon fed winning tips. Understanding value is so important if you are to turn the corner from being a mug to a profitable gambler. Watch the video again and take notes if you didn't understand it.
Thanks for the kind words! - I think you have summed it up in a nutshell, most people are too lazy to make betting viable. Even when they buy-in services (value betting / tips / data ), they fail to take advantage. For example, imagine paying for value betting software - It's like a buffet, if you are not hungry and ready to eat, there is no value! Same with betting accounts, betting with just one is like shopping for groceries in a solitary village shop. Every point counts!!
It’s great f you can redo a market to 100%. I have my own Excel sheet that does this. However it doesn’t matter by how much you beat the odds if your selection doesn’t win !
I've started very little (I literally only placed bets to make cents at the beginning lol), but over time I've accumulated a nice portion. I can now bet a bit more money, and win a more... It's very easy to get impulsive and impatient, but growing your initial betting amount is the objective - not 'striking gold' by making uninformed choices. Don't bet on a team that you love just because you have a 'feeling' (it can work out, but it's stupid). You'll lose your money in a second if you bet based on feelings.
17 years of professional sports betting and I only chased ONE TIME !! I tell everyone that if you didn’t place the bet at the beginning of the day why you place it at the end of the day. Weakness cost people money so does EGO’s
@@bigpossum5482 Amen 🙏 And don’t place bets just because there’s a game (action junkie) value or advantage or pass. Sometimes the best bet is not making one 💪🏼
@@bigpossum5482 I hear you. I overcame CHASING by deciding to only check my ticket the following day when all games have been played. Otherwise I was losing money by trying to chase because I was watching the games I bet on... Now I only check my ticket only after knowing all games have been played
Thank you very much for this..really. a lot of people tell you to seek value, but nobody ever said how to find that value and the steps needed to see what is the base price. Looking forward to keep watching to your videos
Don’t gamble if you have to try and sort this theory out, you have to be very patient and bet very little and only on the top races. Then you have to be able to read form, know if you are getting value, only lose what you can afford, then you get restricted from betting anyway. You are not allowed to win.
great video, more people need to understand how odds work and what value is, odds is an interesting topic. You never say anything about an exchange though its very hard to find value with a bookiemake and when you do and you keep taking it then you will not be using there services for long as you will get your account stake resticted just seems like allot of work to try and beat the book maker but there is no long term gain from a bookmaker why take 1.85 odds with a book maker when you can go on the exchange and get true odds of 1.98 you loose a very tiny amount to the other side but if you have the edge in what your doing then that tiny amount then tips in your favor and again no need to worry about being gubbed or poor prices and the nice thing with the exchange is unlike a bookie where you can only find value on the back side on the exchange theres plently of value on the lay side. i really hope more people use an exchanges in the future, personally i trade on them but theres nothing wrong with being a punter and just punting as normal like you would with a bookie maker but you will always get a better price as book makers build there pricing based on the exchange prices again there true odds not the chopped up shite the bookie will offer you.
I haven't really delved into opinion betting, and from my own perspective, that's what I do! However. Secondly, as you said, at Exchanges you are playing at market price, and not everyone has access to the low commission, or indeed exchanges. Finally, it is not true that you can't find better odds with bookmakers. Many are slow to change prices, and they cover many more markets (no liquidity on exchanges). What about things like each-way thieving (in shops). Betting French racing (in shops), the UK and Irish bookies are clueless with odds. What should one do, show you cards for a couple of hundred on the Exchange or duck and dive to get a few K down without them noticing? I have a list of over 50 people that I have value betting with bookies, and some of them are making 50-100k per month. I believe I mention in every video - there is no blueprint. you have to find what's best for yourself. For me, that's betting in Asia (or racing bets in shops), but for many its ducking and diving (gnome accounts) and making the leisure bookie pay - it is more profitable than 5 and dimers on the Exchanges (read the stats). I hope that declares my position.
Invest time in learning about the different types of odds - Decimal is so much more practical. Most betting sites have a setting, and once you understand them it's easy.
That's actually a good question, but the answer will depend on the person and his/her understanding of the betting market. In football, when team news comes out markets can be volatile, and betting near the start reflects the CLV (closing line value). With tennis, watch for when Pinnacle release their opening lines, the softbooks are in many cases easy to expose!
All this is like double dutch to me . I need to see people betting on soccer as it happens and giving me ideas on what to do and when to do it , this is the key
A sense of reality is needed! - Complex betting as you mention (in-play football) can't be covered in a 20-minute video. This is the reason the video is called ''simple strategy'' - With all due respect, there is no blueprint for doing what you ask. It requires deep knowledge and loads of data crunching. furthermore, if you are calling this video '' double dutch'' - You have zero chance of devising modules, reading markets, and applying psychology. Where is the point of me adding a video for an advanced audience when most are looking for simple ways to win?
@@BettingAnalyst apologirs for my ignorance, I just have no idea what all these numbers are for , I'd need to sit down with you and go over in detail what exactly you're trying to get across and how to relate it in let's say betting before a soccer match for instance. Looking at this video I feel I had to have done a masters in advanced mathematics 😁 I'm probably complicating the whole thing but I do find it interesting if only I understood. I've never come across anyone who can beat the bookies
@@handeyecoordinationskills I don't know enough about the country (laws) that you live in. However, if you can get the same betting accounts, and do things right winning is a formality --------- This video i did BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) is a talk-through with examples and methods. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-cZVlS6rTy-E.html&t The link to the software that we cover in that video allows two weeks of FREE USE - you can test it against the bookies that you can get, while at the same time learn about Value betting.
I've just got some figures for you and the audience: player 1 6.27 player 2 1.13 and another is player 1. 1.77 and player 2 2.09 (decimal system) Would you be kind enough to explain this... thanks for all your great sharing!!
If you can bet player one to beat player 2 at odds of 6.27 and player one at 1.77 you are guaranteed to make a profit. However, with such a vast difference, you have to worry about the bookmaker not paying (claiming palpable error)=
@@BettingAnalyst The american system is showing this results player 1 +527(6.27) player 2 -143 (1.13) and in the other game player 1 -129(1.77) and player 2 +109 (2.09). If I follow the american system i'm guarantee to win on the minus side -143 and -129.? But you are telling me to be player one (game1 1) and also player 1 in game 2.?
All well and good but bookmakers don't like winners. They will first entice prospective clients with "bonuses" and then make them jump through hoops to be "account verified". Win a few quid and you will likely be severely limited to very small bets if you are lucky or "gubbed" (accounts closed) if not. Better off trading on the Exchanges.
By all means, have your say, but betting exchanges are useless for Sports-betting. If you get an average of 500 out of each online bookmaker account and you have 20 - it's still 10k per person. Of course, if you get good at betting (which using exchanges suggest you are) and find a way to profit through knowledge, then all your bets are funnelled through Asia!! No commission, high limits, through agents can change accounts each week, winners welcome, and no bookmaker (KYC). While i certainly don't need to justify myself, you have to learn how to crawl, before you can walk, and then start running! - the secret is to make the journey profitable!
Can I get in touch with you? I am really not clear. I understood what the Juice is but I am not understanding how to beat the odds or what is the best option to choose(understanding the juice) for frequent wins slowly. I am not greedy but I lose alot! I need better strategies
The information you provide for beginners is insanely useful 👌 Well done So your saying almost mostvof the times true odds provide by pannicle right ? But what I noticed was most of the times exchanges odds bigger than what pannicle provided so which one of them really is true odds ? And also what we should look for is odds bigger than even what exchanges provided ? So there no way to make money of off true odds am I right ? Sorry for so many questions 😅😃
This video was for the novice/intermediate (easy), to help identify value without needing deep knowledge. This is a simple way of finding value bets, albeit it's a numbers game and you will need mass. The advantage of using this method is you can find mass, and start your journey. Also, i mentioned in the video that you need to convert Pinn odds into a 100% book (eg, 1.95 1.95 becomes 2.0 and 2.0). We added a ‘’additive’’ excel chart in the description for understanding! If you think about it, what is the true odds in sports betting? We know the true odds on a flip of a coin is 2.00 and 2.00, everything else is open to interpretation. In sports betting, the betting exchanges (market makers) are in the main tracking Asia. And, on that note, with bookmaker competition like it is, finding less sharp odds is relatively easy! 99% of our own bets are opinion based, so yes it is possible to beat the bookies based on skill. Again, I re-iterate, the method mentioned in the video is more simplistic and for those with the right betting accounts easy to exploit. Sports-modelling, iceberging, market driving, timing, and a number of other methods require deeper understanding. Look at the Pinn odds on any match-up, you will see a great amount of variance. In fact, if you could bet at peak odds for each side, you would nearly always beat the system!
Hi, I am a novice. I did not understand the part about pinnacle are you saying their odds are right over 95% of the time? I.e. they odds rightly reflect who the winner and loser of the match will be? Thank you for producing these videos
This is from our tutorial - How to use Pinnacle odds to guide In our experience, Pinnacle odds are about the most accurate on the market. While nothing is 100%, our data research gives Pinnacle a 99.4% accuracy rating. Furthermore, if you find another bookmaker site that is better at a league/sport, the same method applies. www.betting-analyst.com/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/ - That is the text format that might be easier to understand! Value betting is a great way for a novice to get on the right track - Learn a bit more, and then give it a go and you will see for yourselves!
Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
Pls sir I love and appreciate ur teachings and videos, pls sir can you explain to me how to find the juice, and also are we betting on the juice or odds. Thank you Sir and God Blesses your wisdom and Knowledge. Love you
Hi Prince Godwin! The video explains how to convert the odds into a 100% book, and then your job is to find higher odds! You can also use a software such has Rebelbetting to identify EV (expected value) for the bookmakers you have at hand. I did a separate video ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-cZVlS6rTy-E.html&t . There is alternative software that you can google for the same. The only secret is betting at higher odds than ''true odds'' - Its a numbers game!
Hi there thank you for sharing this knowledge I think this is wonderfull. We should use Pinnacle opening or closing odds or it doesn't matter?? Is Pinnacle oppening odds accurate as well??
Pinnacle odds is a strong guide! If you think about it, when you are placing a bet early - you are literally futures trading. Odds fluctuate, and it isn't where the market will end (odds change). Beating the Pinnacle/Betfair starting odds is the target of professional sports bettors, but in the instance of 'no opinion'' value bettors, the value is at the time of placing a bet (ie - don't overthink it).
@@BettingAnalyst Thank you very much for replyng. Right now I have few positive EV strategies the problem is although tey are value bets I have low volume of bets per month and my bank is growing very slow with this that you show us I can have finnaly volume of bets that will hopefullt«y grow my bank faster. thank you once again.
Thanks for your content, you never disappoint. I’d like clarity on somethings if you don’t mind. As a positive EV bettor, how many trades am I expected to take daily, also, using fractional kelly criterion, can I place multiple bets at almost same time? If yes, will I recalculate my position sizing (using kelly criterion) after each bet to place another bet immediately without waiting for the outcome of the first bet. Example: Assuming I’m betting with $1,000, I used $50 for the first bet which hasn’t been settled. I have a balance of $950, will I recalculate my position sizing with $950 without waiting for the bet on $50 to settle. I really need clarity on this and how profitable it might be. Thanks a lot. I really hope you reply
I wouldn't use the Kelly Criterion because not all bets are created equal. By that i mean, more flexibility can be shown, in that you stake according to EV and quality of the Sport. I would trust higher liquidity markets to stand the test of time! Also, if your bets are online, be weary about betting non appropriate sums (EG with cents on the end), it tells the bookies that you are playing a system! I'm assuming that you are in Africa, so in theory you could place (reliable) friends in crowded shops who you feed bets? Two more points - 5% of your betting bank per bet is too much! You could only place 20 bets per day, thus your account options (because lack of funds) would become too small. Around 1% would be better! ps - Here is a video on how you can identify advantage plays ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-cZVlS6rTy-E.html&t. - I suggest a software on there, but their are other alternatives. I don't think we need to get into making adjustments on staking plans because i'm suggesting that you avoid % plays. Just think, it's a numbers game, thus you need a bigger spread of bets. Finally, you can adjust stakes based on performance every month as your bank grows. Needless to say, a good run can be followed by a bad run, and vice versa!
With regards to this video, it's more about the best of 2 or 3 as in a football match! I need to answer your question twice, in that there is a Dutch & split bet. For the sake of simplicity, lets us take a football match where the odds the Pinn (asian odds) were 2.00 (-0.5 Home win) - 1.92 (+0.5 Away win + draw). The converted 100% odds are 2.043 - 1.96 and you can get 1.98 (+2 pips). Alternatively, you can look for the best draw odds, and best away odds. Keeping it simple: If you found 3.333 (draw) and 5.00 (away) you can increase by placing 60 on the draw and 40 away) the +0.5 to odds of 2.00 (+4 pips). This can also be done for quarter ball, and other asian handicap odds if they are something you understand! As for a dutch bet - I do this with racing, albeit I tend to have more on my main bet and cover with the 2nd. Nevertheless, the answer is YES - You can Dutch/Split for positive EV
Nothing changes - same procedure. Many bookies carry the same odds because they are buying them in from a third party service. Also, some bookmakers are part of the same group, thus the same applies!
l don't usually trust calculations, odds are mutually exclusive no matter what. many times l won bets that had 60cents but the ticket is messed by an obvious team that had 20cents and to maximize my chances of winning l fancy a double chance which had 5cents either way, the ticket is lost.
@@Sum-10 If this is too difficult for you to understand, make life easier! - Sign up to a value-betting software and let them provide you with Positive EV (expected value) betting propositions!
Tony I have a question... After removing juice Between ( 2. 49( 3.98) 2.92) should I be following the smaller number on the left or the bigger number on the right? Who's gonna be the winner?
The aim is to find bigger odds than the ''no juice market'' ------- If you see odds (keeping it simple) 2.85 2.85 2.85 ----- (the no juice is 3.0 3.0 3.0) Now you go line shipping (more betting accounts = more options) and the best odds you can find are 2.90 2.90 3.20 ------- your bet is the away because you have higher than true odds!
Thanks Tony for your guidance. Sometimes both home and away have same odds it's really hard to get the truth... Another one of my challenges. I consume alot of time comparing with different books I guess hard work here is needed no lazying... 🤣🤣
thanks for the video. I now understand how to get the 100% bookmakers odds without the juice. my question is what do you do after getting the true odds to make consistent profit?
If you can be more specific? You find the odds, bet the odds, log (record) the results, while continually looking for the next bets. Do it often enough, and you will make a tidy profit which in theory will help you build a bigger betting bank. Practice makes perfect!
One strategy is don't place the same amount on every bet. Good money mgmt you build in the fact you will lose some bets, but if you can consistently win over 60% you can do something like 10,12.5,15 and toggle between those 3 bets. so you have a low bet and a top bet
How do you know the 2.07 ( inverted to 2.15) is the real odd? It could have been the 2.21 inverted to 2.23 if you choose BetinAsia. How do you know which odds are the real world fair odds? Why did you choose Pinnacle as your starting point?
If you are getting over true odds, that's the key to beating bookmakers at their own game. You could also make it easy on yourself by signing up for value-betting software. While they work with amalgamated odds, they will be pumping out loads of positive EV (expected value) bets.
I am not sure if you look back at old videos but i do have a question. When you say "the odds" is that just the line? I am in America and so tonight is Thursday night football. New England +240 and Pittsburgh -300. So when i calculate the percent do i take the 100 and divide by 2.4 (+240for New England) and by 3 (-300 for Pittsburgh)? or how do i use American odds?
Martin odds/Line With the 240 you add the stake 100 =340 (3.4) -300 = 1.33333 (1/1.3333 = 75%) +240 = 3.40 (1/3.4 =29.4%) In this instance, the over-round is 104.4% If laying to balance amounts, the sportsbook returns 95.79 (100/104.4) for every 100 wagered. That's just one sportsbook - If you go line shopping (more accounts) you can squeeze that number down. Best
I'm totally noob and ultimate beginner, but if I understand correctly these methods are good, because this is the way how you can profit the most if you team wins ! (but these mathematical calculations do not help figure out which team will be win) Right ?
That is correct, it's a different ball game finding its own profitable bets and more complex. While we intend in doing some more in-depth analytical stuff, the mass of my audience wouldn't understand the numbers. with the system mentioned here, we are removing the ''brain'' part, and helping you find value without opinion!
It came - it went! They have a small head to head offering on some top US races, but its a waste of time! To be honest, i have no idea why they re-introduced racing, it doesn't pass to the Pinnacle dynamic betting module!! What happens with these bookies is they wake up in the morning and think - ''lets add racing''. One month later its gone!
So where do you factor in the CHEATING part which occurs daily in horse racing ? When the jockey is PULLING on the reigns instead of letting the horse run .
Pfff - Since this video has nothing to do with racing - where is the relevance? As far as the racing goes - no one puts the gun to your head and makes you bet! If you don't like/trust something, stay away!
It's the maths - the over-round is 103.57 and that = 96.55% payout --- meaning the juice is 100-96.55! -------- its like if you had 6 runners in a race and they were all offered at odds of 5.0 (20%) --- 6*20 = 120 whereas the payout is 83.3%
Very intriguing and informative to a number cruncher like me! How close the start of the event do you recommend placing your bet? Also, is one tick enough, or more?
Take into consideration that this method can be used for both pre-match and in-play. Betting during a game makes it harder to detect ''advantage'' players. For the record, Pinnacle uses dynamic odds which represent the weight of money being bet, albeit team news, betting intelligence, and other dynamics force a reset (manual change). The starting line (when the game kicks off) is the most accurate, but that doesn't mean you should wait that long. In an ideal world, you need volatility, and odds won't change much in the last few minutes. With regards to ticks, it will depend on your level, stakes, number of bets. In theory, you should be able to find 10's of thousands per month, but it will depend on the bookies you have at hand. If you are just starting out, i would suggest looking for margins of 3%+. With in-play betting you will often see big difference of opinions, that makes it easier again. As with any business, leave a small margin for error!
@@leetaylor8652 I'm personally no fan of Smarkets. Going back a few years they earned a reputation for reneging on affiliate payments. As with most 'catch-up' Exchanges, liquidity isn't the best, and the odds discrepancy between ''back & lay'' is wider than with the more established exchanges. Generally speaking, market makers on exchanges are tracking the Asian odds, and the name of the game is finding out-of-line soft books!
@@BettingAnalyst Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
any recommendations for the best software for mining the positive ev bets. i know it probably won't come cheap but i simply don't have the time to sift the data
REBELBETTING will work fine ---- I did a video on the settings! ------ You can try it free, and then get 50% off the first month of PRO with this exclusive offer ----- shorturl.at/ntANU Just think about the bookies you have - and stick with Value betting (rather than arbs)
Hi Fergal, it will be dependent on what you are willing to pay for such services. Are you feeding it into Algorithmic Sports-modelling ?. At the lower end of the budget something like advancedsportsanalytics, while more established is the likes of sportsdata.io/. One of our guys here said Rotogrinders have options. For US sport, i believe the choice is massive!
@@BettingAnalyst awesome. Thanks for the reply mate. I found action labs and sports analytics simulator. But yeah quite expensive. Maybe something to think about in future. Thanks.
@@fergaldownes - Your welcome! One thing is certain, US sports can be an easy touch with value betting. If i was in your shoes, i would remove the brain part and concentrate on picking the bastards off! Increase number of bets, pay particular attention to player markets. Look for betting outlets in the Southern hemisphere (sportsbet/topsport/pointsbet), and it will soon grow.
I believe I mention in the video that it works best for the lower odds - The maths changes a little when the odds get bigger, and that's why you will often see a Pinnacle 10.00 become a 12.5 on the exchanges.
@@yabollovanm You have to find higher odds than the Pinnacle ----- If they offer 1.96 1.96 on a game --- remove the juice = odds 2.00 2.00 -------Now you have to search the bookmakers you have at hand for odds which are higher to take advantage!
@@BettingAnalyst now the only thing I don’t understand is the last part of your sentence. To find the bookmaker and “high odds” do you mean I should compare?
@@yabollovanm - unfortunately i don't have much time and i don't call people! Its really simple - you bet when you find higher odds than Pinnacle 100% book!
You react to the odds at the time - If they fit into the category of value, that's what you have. By playing the numbers game (high volume), odds movement (in/out) will balance out!
No it's not - You won't get advantageous prices on the Stock exchange - You will if you do this! Also, what you are suggesting is to tie your money up for the long term, that doesn't fit this scenario! Finally, without big money to stake, the stock exchange is a slow growth option!
@@polok890 The fact that 99% of Bettors fail is because they play into the Sportsbook's hands - it doesn't have to be that way! Looking at completed scores means nothing, especially if you don't know how to interpret results! I'm afraid your comments are totally unqualified, but that's OK. After all, in life you have a choice, and if you are rolling in money from your stock market investments great. However, I very much doubt that is the situation, and if you are not willing to listen, learn, and act then its on you! Many of my social media base are making bigger returns in a year from successful sports betting than those who invest on the stock exchange make in a lifetime! Come with a properly formed opinion and you might have a bit of credibility. PS - Its Bettor mot better!
There is no more simple method than betting on one game that you know will win. The more you bet the more your chances to lose. Then you are in a hole. So you bet more.
Very informative & a great tutorial, however not always easy for the novice punter to follow, I was interested in signing up for your premium horse racing tips service as a recreational punter…. However I asked for your winning & losing tips over the last 6 months, which you gave me but because I didn’t understand your spread sheet you disrespected me & told me to learn about betting before I signed up with any tipping service ! Having looked at your website & RU-vid blog you say you can help any punter & you offer tutorials…..what happened to that ? …
I lay bets all the time, but at the end of the day, a ''lay'' is a glorified bet on the other side. What is important is to recognise when to bet and when to lay. If you are astute why not!
A couple of things (I’m guessing you are in the UK - every country is different)! You decide if it’s long-winded, everyone to their own. These videos are for the mass, and it’s not a one size fits all! No, it’s not arb betting. I always encourage anyone who will listen to take the value, and in most cases the arb is uninteresting. When an arb becomes a bet is when you can bet 2.05 on each side of the coin! However, you shouldn’t bet both sides if one was 1.95 (leave), and the other 2.20 (take). Value betters wouldn’t cover the bet at below EV! With regards to getting closed down, that’s what leisure bookmakers do to anyone winning. Wanting to lose to keep betting accounts open would be defeatist? In short, you could open 50 betting accounts in the UK, if you can average 500 from each, you have 25K. At 200 it’s 10K, and so on. After you exhausted your own accounts, you have work colleagues, family, friends and so on. Those specialising in advantage taking, know how to open (gnome) 3rd party accounts. They can get more longevity from each by staying away from low volume sports. Betting in-play can cloud the bookie's knowledge of what’s happening (quick changing market and more difficult to cross-reference. You know - A lot of business ideas never get off the ground because people are sceptical about the ‘’what if’’. Surely, it should take the money and run? Getting more out of the game takes some figuring out, but that’s the same in every business.
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for the very detailed reply, i appreciate you taking the time and making the effort. I didn't mean any disrespect. I was just genuinely wanting to know if there was a difference between what you were showing and arbitrage trading. Thank anyway.
@@garyhendrie4001 My advice - look more into Value betting, and only arb when the value is on both sides. You can (start) by using some simple value betting software, and do a weeks paper trading to test results. While EV needs numbers to balance out, you will see it's more profitable, and easy with the right accounts. Feel free to write me at betting-analyst if you need suggestions, and if you did start such a journey map it out!
@@BettingAnalyst thank you again, i will be looking into this seriously. I do understand the value in value prices and know that value is the road to profit, always has been. Thank you again for taking the time to reply. Maybe my choice of phrasing in my original message was poor but it was only to make a point, it was not infended ro offend. I will be watching this again, more than once to grasp it in more depth. Thank you again for your reply.
Hi, thank you for video, but you will bet home team for 2,2 odds because you reduced the juice and real odds is 2,15, but what if is draw or away team won you will lose.
As the saying goes, if you want a guarantee buy a toaster, or in the case of betting ''arbitrage'' (bet both sides of the coin). Value betting is based on getting the numbers up. If you get 5% on 1000 bets with 100 stakes, that's 5000 profit - The secret is not to be opinionated, just follow the maths.
@@BettingAnalyst So that`s 1,000 bets made at £100 stake on each = £100,000 spent --you can only get the the said 5% (5,000 profit) from the 1,000 bets made if all the bets win! The info you provided does not help in finding a winner in which ever sport you choose, all it does is give you a (true price) - and all you need to do is look at something like OddsChecker there you will find which bookmaker is offering the best price and on which sport then you simply place the bet with them cross your fingers and hope your bet wins. There is no need to work out the juice you cannot control the odds given - so just take the highest price given by the bookie and good look you either win or loose simple
@@berttrum3319 Clearly you don't understand: 1. You don't need all the bets to win! If half of them won at odds of 2.10 you would have your 5%. 2. Oddschecker/oddsportal and so on show which bookmakers have the best odds - That doesn't mean they are EV bets. 3. Indeed - it does not show you how to find a winner! There is no such thing, and anyone on a quest to becoming a professional gambler will understand betting is all about the odds. This shows you a relatively simple way of finding over the odds betting opportunities. 4. The one thing you did get right is 1000*100 = 100,000. However, to get to that level, it is important to listen and learn.
Thanks , great content as always , one question what about the taxes ? do we have to take care of that as well ? for example : my true odds are @3.00 the bookie got it @3.10 do I gained Value by placing the bet ? because when I calculate the taxes with in the odds, they would fall back to 3.00 , and that would mean no value = stay away ?
Yes it's the end sum that counts! Whether that be a betting tx or commission on a betting exchange. However, most countries don't have a betting tax, and in those countries that do (Germany) many of the bookmakers waive the ''Gebuhr''. Also, you can open agent accounts and look for other ways to circumvent any charge.
Come on - don't be silly, It's not rocket science!! Your job is to find websites with higher odds. We see thousands of odds every day at positive EV. With all due respect, at some stage, you have to show some common sense! Sign up with the right books (Bet365 for example) and take advantage.
@@BettingAnalyst I'm still a bit confused. The found odds can be above the readjusted odds, but that doesn't mean it has positive expected value right? The example of the flipped coin I understand, but not with different games, changing odds different stakes and 3 or more outcomes like football win draw lose.
@@BettingAnalyst ah ok I was missing the EV calculation which shows it's positive in this case. Where stake is $100; EV= (0.4651*(2.2-1)*100)+((1-0.4651)*-100)= 2.322
Indeed - For anyone who understands, it's more profitable than arbitrage betting! With ''arbs'' you are often giving value back and that is counter productive!
If i use only pinnacle as guide and if I see value bet on betfair exchange and only if I place bets on betfair exchanges or other exchanges will I in long term be in profit? I know that betfair exchange are also sharp or are they? Thank for your help
Once the market becomes active (liquidity), most of the Betfair/exchange deep odds (volume) are derived from Asian bookies! However, you will get the trumpers (individuals offering a pip or two more), market manipulators (need movement), and traders hedging back. In short, Asians use dynamic odds which move according to supply/demand. Exchanges follow, and it's more of a case of timing/negotiating your bet! Pinnacle & Betfair are both great guides, but that doesn't mean they can't be beaten. Nevertheless, the margins are fine, and you will need loads of volume to make it worthwhile! Soft books are an easier touch!
@@BettingAnalyst Hi there. I have been using this strategy for a while but my ROI are negative 2 percent. I have been using pinnacle as a guide and also cloudbet. The markets on wich I have been placing bets are corner handicap, booking over under, asian handicap for sports tennis,soccer and basketball. I cant realize what I have doing wrong? I just wonder wich market are the best to bet on. Is it 1X2 for soccer? Is that matters? Thanks in advance
@@igorkulaga3535 - If you have enough bets in the system, and have successfully removed the Pinnacle Juice (thus betting at positive EV) you shouldn't be losing. Betfair market makers track the Asians (Pinnacle - Sinbet - IBC - ISN etc) and work with tight margins (commission advantage - getting rebates from both sides). With Betfair/Pinn you won't see many differentials unless it's for a few peanuts! Raise your EV expectancy! - As for the question about Betfair, yes it's an accurate guide to market odds if there is liquidity! The lower-grade stuff is useless!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for reply. What do you think about cloudbet as a guide? If i place a value bet and there is no longer value before the match starts is it better to cashout and loose some or simply do nothing? I have placed about 1500 bets on only few bookies and still not in positive. I also use en.surebet.com as a guide to see valuebets and even compare it with pinnacle and cloudbet (removing the juice) but still not good. And for the end you typed " the lower grade stuff". Did you ment low liquidity? The highest liquidity is on 1x2 market (match odds) for soccer, maybe is it better to focus only on match odds?
No - it doesn't say that! It's a stronger form of value betting. Putting the odds in your favor is how you beat the bookmakers long-term. You shouldn't be predicting your own bets until you are qualified to do so!
@@BettingAnalyst yeah i know sir , i watched ur video until finished and im qualified enough to make my own prediction and favorite one , for my knowledge thank you
The odds was typically small for Leicester spurs and Man U scoring 3 or 4 each. Do they ever? If so, every 6th match that’s slim odds. There aren’t many doubles and no trebles. Is there job to underscore and miss these slim pointless fractions. Bayern 1-1, 1-1. Leyton orient top the league, 1 win in 7 (1 goal in 7). Barca 1-0 1-0. show me a football bet with any value….and when u win £ from this…well done…and good luck avoiding the next 10 pitfalls and narrow wins at best thereafter. And then it’s Saturday again, where nobody wins anything, any more :)
Bill - Their is often more value in betting against the public (favourite)! However, i agree with you about how results have become tighter over the course of time. If we go back 10 years, betting the likes of Barcelona, Bayern, Porto, Real Madrid, Juventus, Galatasaray, Celtic etc etc was relatively safe - not any more! The way to benefit from bookies is to be selective and only bet the odds when in your favour. Using software such has rebelbetting picks out positive EV (expected value), and then you can bet accordingly.
I have a wish too, and to keep it politically correct let me just say. People who are incapable of understanding should refrain from making stupid comments. For people who have half a brain and want to make it pay, this is an easy way to get ahead. Lifes losers are simply that, go get a life!
Sure - While it's a futures bet, the object of the game is to beat the market price! I'll share a secret - i bet many games at opening odds, albeit they are opinion based and what i'm suggesting in this video is advantage-taking!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for replay and for your videos. Because I am a beginner I rely on pinnacle odds and sometimes i see value bet on oddsportal just like one in your video but odds on pinnacle day after go high so my value bet is no longer a value bet. Is this ok in long term? Sometimes gone in even positive direction
