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@@user-mq4zq3mi5y He's talking specifically about altcoins with no value, that go down. Nobody is making money on those altcoins except perhaps scammers that make them.
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Ben, can you make a video about "what you have been doing with your portfolio" as a cash/btc ratio, and what will you do as based of those 2 scenarios? I if print would come bad you would go a bit cash heavy? And another question; There SHOULD be always a big scar/ wipeout before the BIG RUN, right? I feel like for cryope it's a must, a shake off, then to the sky
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chop from 66-70k until labour market data comes. It will prob come in hot(initial claims). drop back down to 100 day at 42 come december with Eth going home. BTC will top again in december of 2025 with a big altseason. Also I do not see that as a bad thing, I think if btc runs right now it will run out of steam faster and alts wont get there crazy alt season. Alt season Might be better next year
@@bryankorg6385i think there is probably pain no matter what, in case of a recession(20%-40% in stocks) crypto will implode. Crypto has never went through a real recession as it was created in 09 after the financial crisis. The thing is people forget how much pain this market can bring when things look “bullish”
Except Q4 usually goes up, so there's that. Hard to know. I think we may get two peaks again as we did in 20/21. Maybe a drop to 45k between now and the election, then up to 120k around Jan, then down, then up to 250k December 25.
Hey Ben, I've been using your tool for a while and have been watching your channel for over 4 years now. I just wanted to let you know that you are a PRO at technical analysis. I'm amazed at how accurate your predictions are. It's just awesome! 🔥🔥🔥
I will never forget when I heard him saying in 2021: ''In a Bull market there is a fine line between a genius and an idiot.'' referring to people who didn't take profit. While all other influencers were calling 100k and adding laser eyes to their profile pics. I also remember his videos on the bear market: '' In a Bear market, Cash is king''. I followed both of his advices and I have never done better. God Bless Ben.
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In the medium term yes, the easing would be bullish. But a really bad labour print would still cause capitulation in the short term even with the fed easing shortly after.
Yes, I can see how this might not be a popular post. However, I appreciate it. Another way to look at this and a very real possibility that it may happen in such a way. Forewarned is forearmed. I have a contengency in place now, after viewing this information. Thank you…
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Thanks for valuable information. Generally when people come back from summer, they come with ideas therefore new hirings, orders, procurement heats. By December projects are failing 😅
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can you look at the running ROI, because one year ago a massive rally started. and now even though it might rally running ROI might go down to the levels same as in 2019?
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Love the analysis as always. Your steady, pragmatic approach to teasing truth out of the charts is a source of reassurance and calm for everyone following you. 🙏🏻
If you look at the 2019 cycle, there was a vicious dip and the V shaped recovery was the start of the parabolic run. Don't be surprised if we tap 45k before going to the moon.
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I think so... but those will only show up in the November release. Powell has also stated those hurricanes may cause unemployment data to be unreliable with regards to guiding the Fed's monetary policy.
Thank you Ben, the info about the potential drop after Dom topping out was so useful, and its interaction with rate cuts. It’s crazy that the US economy has such an effect on this world asset. 🙏🏼🙏🏾🙏🏿
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But due to the hurricane there is a high probability that unemployment will come higher. Although it wont be due to economic factors. What is ur opinion on such a scenario?
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If every halving year 4th quarter has resulted in a positive Bitcoin print, and you observe that all previous prints had positive unemployment data, then trying to reason that a negative print this time around could be due to negative unemployment data in November or December would be purely conjecture, wouldn't it, as it hasn't happened before. If the unemployment data is negative but Bitcoin still produces a positive print, then it immediately nullifies this correlation. It might be more helpful to produce a table of potential different negative factors this time around, and then make a mental note of whether there is a reasonable explanation of the correlation between your factors and the observed result, especially since you're convinced that Bitcoin is a risk on asset
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While unrate is going from 3.4 to 4.3 between Apr23 & Jul24, BTC price tripled like from 20k to 60k. So, your unrate/BTC correlation doesn't seems like the true story in long term.
But it was going up stochastically, not monotonically. When the unemployment rate began marching up month after month is when Bitcoin entered the lower high structure.
I don’t understand before you said if the unemployment rates are high is good for Btc cause that will force the fed to cut another 50 Bp now is the opposite 😂
The fed cutting rates takes us to QE which is bullish. Its seperate from labor market data? You make it sound like whenever unemployment goes up fed cuts rates.
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Vielen Dank Ben, wie immer sehr seriös. ich teile deine Analyse mit. Ich denke dass der Tiefpunk wurde noch nicht erreicht. Ich schätze 42k wäre gute Unterstützung. Schade dass ich nicht gut Englisch kann. Muss mit Untertitel anschauen oder verzögert. Wünsche dir gute Zeit. Viele Grüße aus Germany
I'm waiting for the trend of BTC to hold just below 70k before deciding if some capital should be put into the trend. That push up has to hold for at least three weeks above 68k or the chance of another drop is still there in the short term.
I'm genuinely interested in your strategy. Most people I know are already invested. You want to wait for just below 70, what is your ideal goal in that situation in terms of return? Are you hoping for like 80-90 or 100k to sell? Just curious because I'd personally be worried if it goes past 70 it could dump at any moment because that's technically ATH region.
@@rtxco1838 Investments at bull market environments are not ideal long term holdings. A funding at these levels are either supplemental and/or used for trading purposes. I already hold assets that I have mined. Assets held and processed in different methods deserve to be treated differently based on purpose, safety, and for tax purposes with other concerns in mind. You should always have more bullets in your gun if you need to when investing. It's foolish to be fully invested, but that's your choice and option. If you are trading, then the time period duration you operate in will dictate more than 50% of your decision making. Buying something near the all time high is based on the perception of market participation level, speed of change, and the percentage ratios both retracements down and seller price points that most traders are going to dump their holdings.
For your bearish view depending on the labour print, youre putting too much weight into only being a USA viewpoint, so the weak bearish view is even weaker as most of the world wont care about US economy stuff as niche as the labour market
The US is the largest source of liquidity for the markets. Obviously it's not everything but you're kidding if a bad US economy doesn't mean a drop in Bitcoin
april 2021 we had our first top and unemployment rate was at 6.1% and second top was november 2021 at 4.1% unemployment....I dont think BTC cares about unemployment rate...
The difference was that back then, unemployment was in a downtrend. Now, unemployment is in an uptrend and Bitcoin is forced to care about it since the unemployment rate also influences how much the fed is going to cut interest rates and when they will start QE.
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What a fucking prophet. I know you don't trade but I've been trading according to your analysis for the past few weeks and you haven't let me down so far. Hail to the king!
