Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation 

I recorded this last night to release today. That is why the prices look so different than live prices. But the ideas still stand so I will release the video either way.

Congrats to all the surviving players from 2021.

Ben's got his dark shirt on. It's serious now.

It’s time for people to admit that this cycle is ACTUALLY different. Bitcoin has never pumped like this pre-halving - this is a different cycle and absolutely no one knows what’s going to happen next.

I must admit that I listened to you on possible correction on 27k-30k level or so and I sold 80% my holdings…i am idiot I know but since 16k it was great profit anyways. I am poor, so almost 100% on my money was great. :) 61k now, but who cares. We are here because of money 100%. Rich people will get richer, poor people like me working 12 hrs day dont give a cent into markets usualy

Honestly - This video and Ben's thought process makes complete sense and everything is backed up by data (no emotions). I guess, the only true difference is that in 2019 we have not had the Bitcoin ETF, nor is 2024 a pre-halving year. I believe - there are only 2 scenarios that could play out. Either, we are similar to 2019, and the cycle continues as Ben has been suggesting, or we see ourselves in a left-translated cycle meaning no larger pullbacks than -20%, new ATH this year, and also market cycle top this year. I guess to succeed this time around you gotta hedge for either of the 2 scenarios... which basically means have crypto in your portfolio and cash on hand. Don't be greedy, and use the Risk Metric to identify "overheated price action" among assets.

It's wild to me that the last time BTC was at these levels yr videos were getting hundreds of thousands of views and crypto news was everywhere. Everything just feels eerily quiet rn.

Ben have you considered that 4 yr cycle is breaking? I think there enough evidence to support that proposition. I’d like to know your thoughts on this?

Holy crap, literally all the most important things in one video

I keep seeing you compare Bitcoin year to year. That works, generally, but halvings aren't 4 years apart. They're 210,000 blocks apart (as you know), which is why the halving date keeps coming earlier each time: 2012, November. 2016, July. 2020, May. 2024, April? I suspect that's why your prediction of a February halving-year drop didn't happen. It happened in January instead, and it was very minor (minor, probably due to ETFs). I enjoy your channel, but comparing Bitcoin year to year doesn't work during a halving year, for obvious reasons (the halving date keeps moving forward).

you're comparing apples with oranges as far as I'm concerned when you compare 2024 with 2019... the halving is a mere handful of weeks away, in 2019 it was way more distant...

great value Ben I love your content, however I would disagree this time with you. Something I would ask is why do you prefer to use the Fib retracement on arithmetic scale, isn't it better to use the Log scale , there is a whole other story there, and yes we have high IR and QT but Spot ETF is Fundamental change and we finally can compare BTC market cap to Gold, Would like to see your Dubious Speculation view on that aspect 😇

I definitely don't feel confident predicting what direction things are going to go, I see a strong case for a pull back before an eventual bull run toward the end of the year or early 2025, but I also wonder is there not a bullish case especially if you argue that the 1st peak in 2021 was the more important peak than the second peak? I'm just hedging for either outcome but I just wonder.

Last time we were at this percentage of previous ATH we were just months away from new ATH …is this a massively shortened cycle???

Dubious pumpilations

Ben, do you think the stock market is further to grow or is at its end?

Ben, I'm curious if you ever consider the potential for future etf approvals and if they'd push btc up further and not follow the previous cycles.

In my opinion, you ignore the impact of the ETFs too much. Just because the retailer are not in the market yet, who is going to bring BTC down when the daily inflows are as high as they are…

Is liquidity still very low compared with 2021-2022 when Bitcoin was highest ever? And does that mean that price can collapse easily?

Hi Ben thanks for the great content. In 12-21-2018 the bear market bottom was $3,215 and local top was $13,764. This bear market bottomed at 15k could the local top be 64k? Did he just turn ten$ to thousand$? 🤔

Can you confirm if when you speak on Altcoins, you are referring to the whole range, or is there some difference in behaviour for those with the highest market caps e.g. ETH? If these are indeed different, could you please give more insight as to how they might behave in comparison? Thank you!

Honor to Ben, almost the only RU-vidr that selflessly brings out his unbiased data without hunting for greed by interrupting advertising. I saved a lot of nerves and money thanks to Ben !

Guys it’s going up and I feel like it shouldn’t be going up this much right now but it is what do we do?

Benjamin, I know you get enough hate so I’m gonna try to be nice. I’ve been watching your videos since last summer when you said bitcoin was going to go down for the rest of 2023. I have been holding my DCA money waiting for an entry price that just isn’t coming. Do you think we will see any significant pullback before the bull run?

Tbf you say that the move in 2020 BTC dominance was falling, but that only started to happen after we doubled the previous ATH. BTC dominance grew up until about $45k before it topped out and that was in a “low interest rate environment”. I don’t think BTC dominance is a function of interest rate policy but a sign of investor confidence based on BTC breaching previous ATH. If we break $69k and we continue to run I expect dominance to start falling even if interest rates are high. Either way won’t sell my BTC for alts until $69k is comfortably breached.

I hope you're right, that would mean we still have more room to grow. A lot more room. My only concern is that we are gonna top soon and go into another bear market... but if we are looking at it this way, it could mean we have time and we have probably 100-150k btc, maybe more with luck.

Hey Benjamin! you are great! can you please talk about and on your dissertation?

Thanks for this advice Ben, this is so valuable. It’s keeping my head cool. I’m starting to feel the greed and that could be a sign to DCA out a bit.

But Ben, most demand is now comming from ETF customers who move assets from other classes to BTC not from retail or new savers/investors...so from that respect it is different at least from capital source point of view, dont you think so?

Ben has turned dark mode on 😂😂😂

This is like a course review of everything we've been learning this past semester. Everything comes together and makes sense but now its time to get it right on the final exam. DON'T FAIL THE COURSE!

It took ben 7 minutes and 9 seconds to mention the bitcoin dominance, a new world record.

If we all sell wont blackrock n all the snides start sweeping it all up wouldn't it be better to stay in forever and just live from it ?

Hmm. Last cycle my top signal was listening to « Pump it up » memes. I watched some today. Gonna sell some of my stack as per Risk Metric moderate approach. Thanks Ben

Can't believe people have problems with Bitcoin dominance videos/segments. It is literally watching the flow of value in the crypto space. It's such useful info.

What about the supply crunch?

great video, all make sense, but what if the 'FED does not cut, (which is likely) and jobs report does not come out so bad. than the 18.5 year everything boom cycle will play out and btc will be .....Thoughts are well come😎

After hitting 61 k, new video please 🙏🏻😀

You’re the man Ben. Bought a ton of BTC around 16-17k. Strongly considering selling at this price (60k) and buying back in on the inevitable dip.

What is the btc risk level right now?

Benjamin, my man... I LOVE your videos, you're the best out there. BUT, you NEED to raise the volume on your videos, the sound is toooooo low, like all the other videos hehehehe. I usually raise the volume to be able to listen to you, but then I forget to lower it when it finishes or when I go watch something else, then the next video is extremely loud

The only time I listened to your "Dubious Speculation" I waited for TSLA to drop below $100 and I waited to buy more $17,000 BTC waiting for it to drop below $15,000. Those were my mistakes. I don't blame you. I just think you shouldn't keep talking about how it is going down in the short term.

It's already hit $61k. When was this recorded?

This is brilliant. Only people who have been watching your videos this past years will understand that this is a condensed one explaining every corner of it, and happening all at once.

I dont see a way for BTC to cool off unless there is a black swan event. There is just so much liquidity from these big players. Thanks Ben for all you do to keep us sane.

oooooooooOff 10 % rise this afternoon and Ben puts out a video with dubious in the title.

Momentum into each and every narratives, question is what's the narrative after the halving?

Why would someone transition to BTC from alts now? To make 100 or 150 percent on their money? You deserve what you get. I'm 300 percent up on all alt plays and alt season is just starting!

Excellent to have your view, Ben. My whole CT timeline is full of "You need to buy altcoins, they will explode next". I doesn't say it won't happen. But a contrarian view has never hurt anyone.

Ben’s vids are sobering and impactful. Especially Dubious Speculation, hits different!

Thank you for your in depth analysis. For being a reasonable , analytical and rational voice in a space completely dominated by feelings and people that want only to say and hear “it is going to the moon forever”. We need you Ben!

Miss more price analysis for btc and alts

Only difference is in 2019 the move started and lasted 5 months this move up is a result of 14 months bullish candles . 12 month candle is also very bullish . Best regards

Great analysis. The one thing that is different this time from all other times is the highest ever percentage of the labor market reaching retirement this and the next 2 years, so a weakening of the labor market is difficult to get when so many people are leaving and there is no one to replace them.

Thanks for the counterpoint Ben. Listening to your wisdoms is important

Great video!

Do red candles even exist anymore?

Pls do a vid on Fibonacci retracements and that whole thing that most of us have no idea about! Thanks

The 20% plus drawdown history is pre - ETF inflows. We haven't even began to scratch the surface of the inflows preparing to come into the ETFs. We should prepare for a large % uptick in the inflows starting in about 60 more days and following to 90 days, most of which will be long term allocation, etal, not readjusting at year end.

Surprising how strong the demand for BTC has been given the current interest rates and sell pressures. The institutional ETFs are just steamrolling through the resistance.

57k? This is old information.

anyone mind sending me a picture of the risk metrics? will repay the favor

Triple top? Idk man I'm not buying this... just seems WAY overbought. Market's in extreme greed, economy is in shambles, interest rates are high and inflation is still over target... this just feels so wrong.

Thank you Ben for this update. First time leaving a comment, been lurking and following your advice since 2020. You are helping me to keep a cool head during this heated times. I have started to DCA out of the market at 57000 and will continue to do so for as long as bitcoin keeps going up. You have been really helpful to me, I wish you well.

What a great analisis Ben. Congratulations sir. Thanks so much ❤

thank you, as always you are the one who put the things in their place in my mind.

If Bitcoin is the king of Crypto than Ben is the king of the Cryptoverse. Love your work as always

Wish you covered the "QE" possibility and its effects on your 2019 comparison.

great different perspective once again. Don't know if I am scared of your thesis or if I want it to play-out, as I feel I'm under-exposed if we go to ATH´S and a bit over exposed if you're right a we see a ~50% drop... nevertheless best level-headed crypto content out there by far. Keep it up!!

Ben you are great! Im 56 and Need your optics . Learn so much from you. Grateful.

0:25 60K Ben! update the video!

Ben have you ever thought about making your own asset management company? Make your own ETF lol because I would invest

With more folks being able to join via the ETFs, and not having been prior tested by fire...When we have a "massive" drop of 10% or more, these new folks might have stop loss orders in place. How might this (relatively) new phenomenon effect the overall space? I think many of us that have been here a while, don't even blink at seeing a 30% drop - but that's not the situation we are in now. I do wonder about what volatility will look like moving forward.

I love your videos and insight. I've never fan girled for a content creator before but you're easy to follow, and explain everything really well.

Love the contrarian view... Please keep it coming! Ad Astra 🚀.... But it's great to keep grounded! I don't want to ride the coaster back down again... 2022... Thank you for your perspective.

Despite all the talk in previous cycles about institutions coming, this time institutions are actually here and we may have an all time high pre-halving. This changes everything and makes this cycle very different. No one knows how it will pan out. I like Ben's view on what's going on. Enjoy the ride.

Hold on fellas, this might get messy

Everyone expects a bull run in 2025. Which means it's not going to happen. This is the run now then bear market, but not so deep, for a while.

Time to come up with some new predictions Ben, cause WTF is really going on with Bitcoin

I love how people are preoccupied with the video being recorded last night instead of the videos message regarding BTC 😊

I miss your Heikin Ashi videos

Outstanding analysis. Thanks Ben!!!!

Hey Ben, the majority of us love your content and the information you provide. Please don't let the haters affect your tone, sometimes it sounds like you're a little mad haha

What I learn from crypto keep your day job buy every time it dump don’t listen to any RU-vidr where the price is going

Thanks for all the work you do Ben, thank you for standing strong to all the haters!

Love or hate it what Ben says about interest rates make sense

Ben cares about each and everyone of us so much that he can't enjoy the price movement until he knows we are all safe. That is what you call a Man's Man.

The consolidations are when the whales could manipulate and clear out speculative bets. I don’t believe they have that luxury at this point. With the ETFs and the speed we are at it would be too risky to short or bears reversing the market at this point.

So in conclusion..... ??

With this pump happening right now it should help act as a buffer against the miners losses at halving...which overall i think is a good thing. We want the miners to keep on keeping on rather than folding due to a value loss.

I miss the chairs lol

Thanks Ben! 🙂

BIG BEN BACK AT IT AGAIN

Praying for 2019 again, let’s go!

I’ve been waiting for this!!

Thanks Ben

I did what Ben said and sold ALT bag for BTC, in 2022 I think. I now have a BTC bag at my previous ATH. It's not complicated.

great video

10:17 IF So, It won't a two picks all time high scenario like some people is starting to suggest? It would be the case that we reach a new all time high and puff...get out of steam before reaching 80K-100K? DO you think we can see 120K?

LOVE THE CONTENT MAN!