Love your content, every single circle I'm in, in the crypto world, continuously references your work, it the most positive and respectful way. Thank you Andreas!
2:45-3:31 "You can change the algorithms of all the active wallets, but some wallets have lost keys or the people who had those keys died and they can't change the signing algorithm which means those wallets will be captured by quantum computers. So we will know what quantum computers exist when satoshi's coins move... That's one of the reasons why they will move. Eventually they will move and they will move because eventually someone will be able to break the keys. But for the rest of the eco system we can migrate quite easily to another algorithm. It's not really as big of a threat that people think it is."
Man I can't even begin to imagine how this Technologies going to evolve over the years decades and centuries 🤔. My great great great grandchildren are going to be living in a world I can't even comprehend right now. Lol
Intelligent life by then won’t even be carbon, it’ll be silicon. AGI (and subsequent ASI) systems will take over and humans will either merge or get left behind.
Quantum computing would not only affect Bitcoin/Crytpo, it will ALSO destroy the current Banking/Credit/Financial system a lot easier. Nobodies money will be safe in the current financial/banking/credit system with quantum computing, at least with Bitcoin there are different layers of security that we can switch to to protect our money.
Good answer, this break the false security and stability fiat money appears to have. But can you explain, in practical terms, how exactly will banking/"real" money be affected?
1:27 The Enigma was broken in 1932/33 in Poland (by a guy named Marian Rejewski) and yes, the Poles _did_ keep it secret until July 1939 when they invited the French and the British and told them the whole theory and methods. It even included the "bomb" machine, later improved by the Bletchley Park people and Alan Turing there. Strangely enough, Rejewski was never invited to work at Bletchley Park despite him being in London at the time. A borderline criminal neglect, if you ask me: the guy who broke the Enigma is _right there_ and is _not_ asked to participate in a major lifes-saving war effort. Astonishing.
Satoshi's bitcoins are on addresses that coincide with their public key, because it was an early version of the protocol and addresses were not compressed. So they will be targeted by quantum computers at some point
Hallo, Great content. I know the topic is old, but I have a question. what if you only have one ledger nano and want to send bitcoins but not all of them. Theoretically the leftover bitcoins on ledger are at risk according to your statement, right ? I know that ledger uses xpub. ledger work with master private key and master public key and generates from it the 100s of addresses that belong to one account. As I understand it, this means that every time a ledger is to receive bitcoins, a new address is generated (for privacy purpose) , which can theoretically be assigned to the xpub. If I have understood this correctly, does this mean that there is actually only one master public address and Master private key? Theoretically, all coins would then no longer be quantum safe after an outflow of coins to another address. If so, what about the creation of a new bitcoin account on the same ledger nano ? Is a new public address and private key created there ? Or have I misunderstood, because it is always the same master public address and Master private key. It is possible that I have mixed up something. I would be grateful for clarification.
Thank you very much für the explanation. Since there is a big acceleration in Quantum computer development many people say that Q-day is much closer than we think. What do you think about it?
Hey Andreas, Would there be a dapplication towards Bitcoin's network on distributed scaling toward the quantum realm?? An example, nonce iteration parsed in to seven separate realms each with divergent scaling methods
I am correct that Andreas is wrong here? The satoshi coins are stored in old non-hashed address p2pk and not hashed p2pkh, therefore his coins are vulnerable to Quantum computing attacks?
You are exactly correct here, yes. All unhashed p2pk coins are at risk. Everything else will be at risk upon signature broadcast when a sufficiently powerful QC exists
Does this also apply for ethereum? so if you spend some eth would there be a digital signature left on the blockchain that could eventually be cracked ?
Thanks for the interesting video. What about the other side of the (bit)coin? The miners. Once there will be, say, 20-50 powerful quantum computers out there - some may be used to mine Bitcoin with a fraction of the energy and time required to mine using the current technology. Wouldn't these "quantum players" take over the entire Bitcoin mining "industry"?
QCs could take over mining if they can compute the nonce faster than usual. Although I do not think it would matter. The difficulty rate adjusts to counter higher processing speeds (as long as there is enough inbuilt precision to adjust the nonce enough). Hence it would still adjust back to a 20 minute confirmation period again. It's the mathematics that is the real security in the blockchain, since the truth of the maths doesn't lie (1+1=2 but never 3). Even if a QC intentionally fakes bad mathematics, then validation with the other nodes will reject it - large node numbers involved in validation is the second level of security. BTW, the mining difficulty rate is really to legitimize intrinsic value into Bitcoin, and hence prevent it being classed as a security (purposefully added for that reason). As for the cheaper electricity costs for QCs, then yes that could cause a lowering of Bitcoin's intrinsic value (i.e. the cost to mine), but if it remains a secure mode of financial transfer and storage then it will unlikely affect the market value of Bitcoin (which is typically higher than its intrinsic value). But reality is that QCs cost too much, so are not owned by private individuals, so would not be used to mine in the next couple of decades just to gain an advantage over a single block reward every 20 minutes.
6:11 This is not correct. Satoshi's early mining coinbase transactions were P2PK scripts, so even in the genesis block his pubkey is revealed in the locking script. Satoshi also did send 10 BTC to Hal in Block 170, which revealed Hal's public keys in locking script (as also P2PK).
Quantum computing is in fairly advanced stages. We are looking at somewhere around 2025 to have a major breakthrough (going commercial). We are not that far away. Remember when plasma TVs cost $20K for a 30” screen? You can now buy 55” for less than $1K It happens with every single technology
Wait that’s not true, he just said the am of Qbits you’d need to break a wallet encryption is out of reach when literally it’s not and the processing power scales up exponentially when you add 1 more Qbit each time. So that was a wrong representation of the realistic tech capabilities.
Then he says in the case of a breach by Q computer you can all just migrate to another algorithm... lol complete under estimation that’ll be cracked too... no trust in btc
So let's say they don't hack the Bitcoin.. but the q computer has a great amount of processing power... So let's say I have a quantum computer.. and I mine Bitcoin... What do you believe will happen to the price of Bitcoin???
At some point, the consensus algorithm for bitcoin will have to change to adapt to quantum computing. When that happens, all the "dead" wallets will be found out because they won't updateto the new consensus algorithm and the quantum computers will solve their out-of-date encryption.
love your expertise andrea. Just a thought; wouldn't a quantum computer be used to mine bitcoins instead to get the reward from the bitcoin network, thereby reinforcing the security of the network and then the same game theory would apply as it is now with asics? I think that when quantum computing is available, it will only make bitcoin stronger (hashrate speaking); due to the same economic incentives playing out now.
Another angle would be to create a quantum crypto algorithm using another quantum computer. Then they’d have to reinvent the computer AGAIN, but even if they did we could just leap frog onto the latest computer at that time for as long as we want.
Adjustments to the monetary system is not small fish to the NSA. I don't work for the NSA, but to say something like that is a bit off, or to sure of yourself and making the classic smart person mistake.
Most (all?) of Satoshi's coins are in P2PK addresses, not P2PKH, so his coins are immediately vulnerable to a quantum computer which can reverse ECDSA.
Poles broke it initially, but just before the war the Germans changed the existing rotors and introduced more of them. The British, building on the Polish work, then broke it again and developed additional techniques in doing so.
about bitcoin and other blockchains: this ECDSA is the protocol that turns the private key into public keys, right? isn't it just a matter of changing the protocol to one quantum resistant? it really feels like just adding some layers of equations which are generated in a decentralized fashion (meaning that no one knows all the equations that can be used and in which order they will be used to encrypt both the keys and the hashs). one thing i still couldn't figure out by now but have a clue on this: the encryption of the private key confirming that the public key used to transfer any money happens online? ok, only the public keys go public, but where the "signature", the "yes, this public key was generated here by my private key using my cryptography" happens? is it locally? i guess from what you said that no: if the quantum mofo can break into the SHA256 he would still have to get that public key and break the ECDSA aswell - so it means that the private key confirms that it is sending X to Z locally and then this message goes online. COOL, but then there's another problem: wouldn't it be easier for a hacker to hack this confirmation and not the encryption itself? understanding what makes the wallets say "yes, this public key belongs to me here" and emulating it?
3:57 “They can’t change the signing algorithm” Why does he say this? Can’t you just change the protocol to only allow quantum-resistant signatures???? Yeah?
If quantum computers can break Bitcoin encryption, say goodbye to your bank account as well. Bitcoin can also hard fork to incorporate quantum resistant algorithms.
@@joostvw3692 Packets being transmitted through the internet can be intercepted and then those packets can be decrypted using the quantum computers to reveal details such as usernames, passwords etc, that can be used to gain access to online banking accounts and access the money. So if encryption breaks, everything digital essentially breaks. This can be mitigated using quantum resistant algorithms for encryption, Bitcoin can also fork to incorporate quantum resistant cryptography.
@@Vt12365 Yes but still there is a bank that stands for your money. They are the keepers of your money. If there "vault" is breached you will get your money back. With BTC there is nobody to protect your loss.
@@joostvw3692 There is no vault all the money is digital, stored in a database. Technically yes, they can print more digital dollars and put it in your account, but what would be the point of that, what would be the point of money at all, if more can be printed at will? Do you want to be the keeper of your own vault or entrust your money to a third party and increase their power?
now about quantum computing: people seem to worry about it breaking into old blocks/hashs/wallets... what about confirming new ones? what about confirming fake ones? if there are 6 quantum computers working for a hacker, probably they would be basically mining most transactions, so they would have the hash numbers, blocks etc. i'm not sure how the nonces/new hash creations happen, which seem to be the missing piece here but, wouldn't they have enough data to fake a transaction and to confirm it by themselves? let's say: Q1 just mined a transaction where X received 1 BTC. he then fakes a transaction where X sends him the 1 BTC and his 6 quantum computers will probably be the fastest ones to solve for the nonce of it and then, confirm the fake transaction. if the miners assigned to mine a transaction are more random than that - how they are randomized in the safest cryptos?
Late at night dreaming about Bitcoin trying to think of any potential threats that could kill Bitcoin. Then Google the potential threat, and Andres is there to help you breathe again.
IBM planning on having 1,000 functional qubits by the end of 2022 - error correction now over 99% - it is becoming very very close. and don't think for a second a state actor like China wouldn't love to crash Bitcoin.
Imagine.. We are already close to an AI that could do thousands of years work in a week or two. At the moment we see gov researched non weapons to the public released years later.. Things are gonna get weird when we hit a certain point
In the near future, quantum computers will be able to crack all binary based cryptology algorithims easly beacuse of its design. Nature and universe is working based on quantum mechanics, and nature is very complex situation which is existing computers will never be simulate it one on one. Quantum copmuters will be able to simulate the nature and the universe closely. I mean that all cryptology systems have to be change based on quantum mechanics. I dont know how the quantum cryptology look like for now but we will see it.
Not in the least. At least some Eth devs have discussed a Quantum Disaster Recovery Plan, however. ethresear.ch/t/quantum-disaster-recovery/4042. At this point, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) is the only active blockchain project using a standards-based, peer-reviewed Post Quantum cryptography scheme (XMSS/WOTS), but there will likely be others in the coming years. I suspect BTC will upgrade when NSA tells banks and other critical infrastructure to upgrade, but the lost/inactive addresses are an issue, they will have to be "burned/rejected" by core devs with a hard migration deadline, or just left open to Quantum Attackers.
lol, quantum computing is brute force processing power. We are talking about speed. I dont really care how good the encryption is, everything is just a matter of time. The point of quantum computing is, shortening that time.
