BJP will fall below 272, possibly 250, even conceivably 230; if that happens it's not certain NDA can form a government; Congress could cross 100: Yogendra Yadav to Karan Thapar for The Wire.
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With voting completed in nearly 90% of the seats and the last day of polling on Saturday - and with the campaigning to end tomorrow - Yogendra Yadav, presently National Convener of the Bharat Jodo Abhiyan but before that one of India’s most highly regarded psephologists, says that the BJP will definitely fall short of 272. He says the BJP could go down to 250, but if the undercurrent is strong it could even fall further to 230. Mr. Yadav says he expects the rest of the NDA to win between 35 to 40 seats. This means that if the BJP were to fall as low as 230 it will become uncertain whether, even with the support of the rest of the NDA, it can reach the 272 majority mark.
In a 50-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Mr. Yadav said the Congress could win between 90 and 100 seats but, depending upon on how poorly the BJP does, that could possibly rise to 120 seats.
I do not want to give away Mr. Yadav’s thunder. His analysis is easy to follow, comprehensive and for many will seem compelling. I encourage you to watch the interview to understand in detail how the BJP will fare state-wise. The interview discusses the BJP’s performance state-wise or, at least, in terms of small groups of states. That is the core of this interview.
However, in broad brush terms, let me tell you that Mr. Yadav expects the BJP to roughly retain the 29 out of 130 seats in South India it won in 2019, although it could lose up to 2 of that tally.
In UP, Mr. Yadav expects the BJP to fall to 50 seats compared to the 62 it won in 2019, but if the undercurrent is strong it could lose a further 5-10 seats.
In Bihar, the BJP could lose 5 seats out of the 17 it won in 2019 whilst the NDA as a whole (including the BJP) could lose 20 out of the 39 it won in 2019.
In the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Gujarat, the BJP could lose up to 20 seats altogether. It could lose possibly 2 seats in Delhi, 1 or 2 in Punjab, up to 5 in Haryana and also lose the solitary seat in Ladakh.
In Maharashtra, Mr. Yadav expects the NDA as a whole (such as it exists today) to lose 20 out of the 42 seats it won in 2019. Of that figure the BJP’s losses could be 5.
In Bengal, Mr. Yadav says its “a confusing” situation and his best estimate is that BJP will retain the 2019 status quo of 18 seats.
Mr. Yadav expects the BJP to retain the grip it has on Assam and the North East. In Orissa he believes Naveen Patnaik’s BJD will win the Vidhan Sabha election, although its majority may come down. He also expects the BJP to win more seats at the Lok Sabha level than the BJD.
As Mr. Yadav puts it “chunav palat chuka hei.”
If you are interested in the election results and, perhaps even more so, in the understanding of the factors that are in play and the reasoning behind his estimation of figures, I strongly advise you to watch this interview. It’s not just that Mr. Yadav give a clear range of seats that he believes the BJP, NDA and Congress will win but also explains why he has come to this conclusion and often his explanation is the important or, at least, convincing part. So if the election interests you and you are keen to know what the results could be I strongly suggest you watch this interview.
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23 сен 2024
