Bracketology: Picking the Overall Champion Using KenPom Stats! 

Hey Tom! I'm glad you enjoy the videos. We are in the same boat. I love data and sports! Ironically, I am preparing to record a video on scraping NBA data today! So your request is very timely. With regards to player data, I have a scraper for that too. I'll need to run the code to make sure it still functions correctly. I recently read an article that claimed that the PIE statistic is very predictive of the season MVP award. We'll have to take a look at that. I'll come back here and let you know when today's video is available. Stay tuned!

Hi Tom! I just posted a video titled "Scraping NBA Data... With Python!". I'll be posting another video soon on stats that can be used to help predict NBA game outcomes. Cheers!

Hi Enoch! I'm glad you enjoyed the video. Thanks for your comment. Cheers!

Hey Charles! I'm glad you got value from the video. Good luck filling out your brackets! Cheers!

Hi User! Thanks. I'm glad you got some value from the video. Cheers!

Hi Ultrx! I'm happy you like the content. Thanks for your comment. Cheers!

Hey Eazy! Thanks and welcome!

Hi Clutch! You are very welcome! Good luck on your brackets!

Hi Levi! Thanks for the compliment. Lol. Love that show! Cheers!

Not true, Villanova was number 1 kenpom ranked in 2017-18 season

@@ZBatt1 nice! It crosses the kenpom number one ranked. Wonder if the number one overall ranked seed has ever won or not one it?

Just checked using ChatGPT, the number one overall seed has won it before with the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats as most recent

Hi Minhajghayur! I just checked. Since 2001 four teams that were ranked #1 in KenPom (AdjEM) won the ncaa tournament. They were: Duke 2001, Kansas 2008, Kentucky 2012, and Virginia 2019. That's pretty good overall. Cheers!

Hi Terence! Thanks for your comment. It is very insightful. It would take a season or two for the stats to "catch up" to what is happening. With regards to 4 of 6 teams not fitting my parameters, I'm pretty sure they did when I made this video. Since KenPom stats are updated after each day, the stats might be different now. Cheers!

@@KerrySportsAnalyst Kerry don't take offense I think what you did is FABULOUS !!! HOWEVER I DID CHECK ON THIS YEARS # OF TEAMS SCORING 80 + POINTS VS LAST YEAR IT WAS LIKE 46 TO 23. REASONS BEING 1. Portal proven scorers . 2. More mature decision makers 3. Greater emphasis on 3 ball. As part of my "renormalization " of the data set YOU selected I just temporized to first 118 adjo then 120 adjo and upped the adjd to 98 . So my bracket picks are like 40 for 52 and yesterday's 8/8 . I think we are beating chat gpt and musks Grok and vegas models . So keep it up. My problem with the historical data set is this. Each game is an anomaly and each years data reflective of that year's set of anomalies. Yet there are strong threads of consistent outliers such as aztecs D . Does defense win championships ? And were a houston to win would it be more so for its adjd ? 🤔

Hi Truffle! You're very welcome. I'm glad you got value from my video. The KenPom stats that I use and discuss in my videos are *pre-tourney* stats. While I don't necessarily recommend paying for data, a subscription to the KenPom website is surprisingly low. Cheers!

Hi Jim! The AdjEM is the fifth column on the main page. It is also easy to calculate. Here is the formula: AdjEM = AdjO - AdjD. Cheers!

Hey Casey! I agree with you. There are a few teams that are right on the edge and could easily be in the list of contenders if they have good conference tournaments. If I wasn't considering the KenPom stats, I would definitely pick Purdue to be a contender. Cheers!

But only if they don't play a jersey team

@@terencewinters2154 Lol! Good one!

They should be good so long as not matched vs Princeton and Edeys kaizen cousin since peters and fdu are out.

Purdue always chokes

Hi Copernicus! I agree. I'm not sure if the "adjusted" term means the stats are adjusted for strength of schedule or adjusted by comparing them to the overall average. It would be nice to find that out. Cheers!

Hi OlRascal! That's a good question. The data that I use is pre-tourney data. Since we have to fill out our brackets before the tournament starts, we do not have the benefit of seeing the numbers change during the tournament. The data on the main KenPom page shows post-tourney stats from previous years. I don't know how to calculate the "new" KenPom stats after predicting the first round, the second round, and so on. That would be an amazing thing to see. Cheers!

Hey Drew! That's impressive! Houston is looking very strong this year. They'll definitely be the champion in a few of my brackets. Cheers!

@@KerrySportsAnalystEven after a bad loss to Iowa State?

@@ZBatt1 I hear ya. My confidence in Houston is waning. Just a little bit.

Agreed - I’m hoping that this video (and the one prior for Rounds 1&2) were using pre-tournament KenPom numbers.

Update: from the first video, the only team mentioned by name was FDU. Pre-Tourney AdjO: 106.2 AdjD: 118.43 Post-Tourney AdjO: 106.7 AdjD: 115.1 The point that FDU sits on the chart shown in Video #1 seems to reflect Pre-Tourney stats (going past the 115 marker), so I think we’re using pre-tourney data!

Hi Dyson! That's a good question. The stats that I use for my videos are pre-tourney stats. The historical stats (from previous years) that you see on KenPom are post-tourney stats. While I don't necessarily recommend paying for data, the current KenPom annual subscription is quite low. Cheers!

@@vincetran3019 Hi Vince! That's a sharp eye! You got the stats correct for FDU, pre-tourney and post-tourney. Nice job!

Hi Veni! I think that is a great idea! In fact, I have built ML models to predict single game outcomes. I need to make a video of this. I'll try to get one out this weekend before selection Sunday. Cheers!

Thanks dude! I definitely plan to watch it!@@KerrySportsAnalyst

Thanks dude! Can't wait to see it!@@KerrySportsAnalyst

Hi Grandpa! True. Last year we had one 4 seed, two 5 seeds, and one 9 seed in the final four. I'm not sure many people picked those teams as the overall champions. Cheers!

War eagle!

Hey CB! I'm entering the ESPN Challenge, which allows participants to choose up to 25 brackets. I think it's more fun to enter multiple brackets. To each their own. Cheers!

I would pick 1 bracket if i had stats to assist