Regular viewers to the Q&A will know my views on Brexit. I think it was a terrible mistake. But crucially there are increasing signs that many people who voted Leave in 2016 do too. But what can be done about it? Should Britain try to rejoin? And should the EU accept it back, and under what conditions? As ever, I really look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.
Professor Lindsay, rational and reasonably minded Australians always knew way back in 2016 that Brexit would only end in tears for the United Kingdom. Yet, Sydney is on the other side of the globe. To put it simply, Brexit has been the world’s slowest train wreck which has been just painful to see for the better of a decade now. How time flies. 🇦🇺 🇬🇧
As an EU citizen, I am in favour of a pragmatic approach, despite all the low blows we have been dealt during the Brexit process: If it is beneficial for the EU and the UK, why not. I would even be sympathetic to Shengen and Euro opt-outs as long as there is at least one other EU member with it. But the rebate should not be returned under any circumstances.
@@markopinteric Forget it. Why should the UK be given special concessions and dispensations, while other EU members do not receive these considerations at all? French President Charles de Gaulle was right all along: the British are more trouble than what they are worth. 🇫🇷 🇪🇺
Okay, I respect this channel but I passionately hate misrepresenting statistics in furtherance of a narrative. I'm not disagreeing that Brexit was a bad idea, but 7:55 is a severely misleading statement. The 4% assumed loss in potential productivity is not a "4% drop in British GDP" - it is an estimate of reduced GDP growth; *over 15 years* no less. That's an estimated annualised 0.24% loss in potential GDP growth. There is a MASSIVE difference between those two things and I would expect Prof Ker-Lindsay to understand that difference much better than I do. What you implied is the equivalent of the 2009 financial crisis. This is a central pillar of the entire argument and makes the whole thing border on the kind of fake news and selective reportage tactics one would expect from the likes of Breitbart. This video hardly mentions the actual exit from the free trade area (the single factor most drastically effecting the EU and the UK's economies) at the end of 2020 and how impossible it is to differentiate causalities between Brexit, Covid and the war in Ukraine - something all honest economists have admitted. Or the fact that UK-EU trade volumes have recovered entirely to above both pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels. Also I need someone to explain to me exactly how the cost of living crisis can be blamed on leaving the EU when Germany - the leading EU economy - is literally in technical recession? Why not talk about actual issues like the impasse on Northern Ireland's future or expand on the impact on fisheries, immigration and asylum seekers? Or the UK's loss of influence on continental issues. Imagine the potential of the staunchly pro-Ukraine UK government (both Conservative and Labour, mostly) in the EU parliament. There are real issues that can be used to make this point, but supported by more than just media hype that's easy to see through by anyone who looks into the actual figures in the video.
As a non Brit, my impression has always been that the UK was okay with the EU only as long as it suited its needs. In practice, the UK always appeared to be cherrypicking, only committing to those treaties that were advantageous. This hasn't changed, I think. Those Brits who want to rejoin probably think that it will be possible to maintain the exceptional status that the UK used to have. They still refuse the idea of the EU as a political entity with its perspective of an ever growing political unification. This is what makes a rejoining improbable in the short term. Mr Johnson's reneging on international treaties and deals certainly hasn't helped.
Thanks. Sadly, I think you’re right. I got into a Twitter discussion with se Rejoiners the other week who seemed to think that we could rejoin without committing to the euro or Schengen. Apart from the fact that this is now a formal demand for membership, I firmly believe that we should want to join both. And if we want to continue to have exceptions then we aren’t ready to rejoin, and the EU don’t want us. We were been a difficult partner for too long. And it’s not like joining both will be a bad deal. It will be the excellent deal that all the other members have. It just won’t be the amazing one we had, but lost because of the Brexiters.
@@JamesKerLindsayAs a French person, I would love the UK to join Schengen, would definitely make it shorter to board the Eurostar. Although of course Ireland would have to agree to join as well.
I have seen little evidence of the average Brit (even Remainers) having made any serious effort to learn what the European project is, and to think of it in terms beyond Single Market access and immigration. Britain rejoining the EU would be a complete waste of time for everyone so long as “Europe” means nothing more to Brits than holidaying in Spain, crossing at Dover to buy wine in Calais and having to deal with foreigners “stealing their jobs”.
Brits have a rather limited understanding and like of their neighbours but seem to hold places further afield in higher esteem, places that most of them will never visit.
Well all of that will change given that Spain is apparently now going to be continually on fire during the holiday season. People from the contintent will probably start flocking to seaside resorts here for some rain and a break from the heat 😅 all those knackered hotels in places like Hastings and Blackpool will spring back in to life 🤣
As an American who travels to Britain frequently, I can tell a huge difrence in the UK since Brexit. It feels poorer, less resilient, less innovative, and with fewer resources. Goods and services that used to be readily available are scarce. No one is starving, but thre are shortages and more strikes, and more pressures on people.
Everything in UK got so expensive. Just recently had to buy some parts for motorbike. UK price 800 GBP... import from Japan with shipping 256 GBP Clothes? the brands I buy are now cheaper to import from US than to buy in UK Everyone in UK suddenly started to increase prices for no reason
Thanks. A lot of people have said the same. We all see it. Shortages. Difficult to get parts. Price rises. A dwindling band of leavers still argue that it is going well (with others effectively acknowledging its failed but complaining it was never implemented correctly - whatever that might mean. The only harder Brexit was an embargo on Europe!)
@badofi Seriously, I’m happy to have a sensible debate here, but at least start with sensible points. No one sabotaged Brexit. It was always destined to fail. And enough if the nonsense about an EU dictatorship. It is in fact far more democratic that the U.K. I hear plenty shouting about unelected officials in Brussels, but none of those same voices up in arms about Johnson making an unknown 29 year old a law maker for life!
@@badofi Anything to quote Donald Tusk emberked upon "without a sketch of a plan" is bound to fail .But do not worry about the UK ever being back in in your life time. The watchword in the EU is "Once bitten twice shy" so Britain Bye, Bye.
One problem may be that a current majority in favour of rejoining the EU may be dependent on the UK doing so on its previous terms. This is extremely unlikely.
@@user-rq5sd1sq8o observing the way your "control over our own monetary policy" is performing , i would prefer if you keep the pound and dont become a risk to the Euro. oh, if you really sell your kidney, make sure they pay you in Dollar , not in pound.
@@Ooze-cl5tx Given that the pound has survived for several hundred years, while the Euro is less than three decades old, not yet a fully developed currency and run by committee, I would suggest that the risk may still be in the reverse.
I would wager that anyone who has changed their mind on the matter didn't know what the EU was or what they were truly voting on in the first place. None of the reasons for leaving have changed so it sees like just poor public mood
@@aituk I doubt most people on either side really fully knew what they were voting for. However, comments sections like this certainly bring out opinionated people in both camps who think they do.
From the Netherlands: I think that Britain should never be allowed back into the EU. You have mentioned ALL the arguments (1. The attitude of sitting on the fence and no real commitment. The damage done by the Brexit process. Besides the fact that the UK has become somewhat of a Third World country, for which the EU would have to pay to get the industry, the NHS back on its feet. I feel sorry for all the remain-voters and the Scots, but I feel that the UK has had its chances to be a full EU-member. Thus the door to the EU should be closed forever!!
Thanks. I can see why so many in Europe feel frustrated. But countries go through phases. Britain was problematic. But it also did a lot of good in its time. Many EU policies were driven by the U.K. it also helped to balance France and Germany, not just against each other, but also when they tried to team up against small countries. And it also helped increase the EU’s clout in the international stage. (But sadly Brexiters failed to understand that EU membership also helped to increase the UK’s standing. It was a two-way street.) And I agree that reform is needed in the U.K. Overall, I think that a fully committed and reformed Britain should be able to rejoin. And that is what the EU has always been about. It has always seen itself as a continental community. Most EU policy makers agree that an EU with the UK firmly on board would be beneficial. But, as I said, they’ll have a high threshold for believing that Britain would be committed - as they should!
@@heycidskyja4668 "A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals." Carlo M Cipolla
From the Netherlands: EU membership of England was always problematic indeed and the Leavers were so insulting towards Europe. So a new membership must be based on a vast majority of people and not only just because of the economic advantages. As a European I hope the English people will figure it out and rejoin, the UK is such a fundamental part of European culture and history. They liberated our country from the nazi's, so forever grateful.
No hard feelings my british friends, but if you thought France was oposed to UK joining the EU, try to convince any spanish goverement to NOT veto you unless the Gibraltar-issue is properly adressed
They probably would have to give Gibraltar up (as a self-governing province of some kind) but would open Spain up to questions about their two enclaves in Africa. I don't see Spain having to give them up while getting Gibraltar back though.
Convincing Europe to allow the UK back in is one thing, but the UK will never receive its opt-outs and tax rebates that it gave up when it left. Joining the EU will require joining the Euro zone, Schengen and many other EU institutions. Good luck on that!
@@Ikbeneengeit Well to comply with the Copenhagen Criteria -Political criteria: stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities; -Economic criteria: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU; -EU acquis criteria: the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union. that is exatcly what UK (or England) has to do.
@@trident6547 It's more than that. It also has to accept the Four Freedoms - and that will be difficult in the UK because of the deep rooted xenophobia and the Brexiteers and their media focusing so much on supporting this xenophobia.
@@Ikbeneengeit Before that the EU might no longer exist and if it does the UK probably wont want anything to do with it. People tend to forget that before Brexit hype next to noone in England was thinking about the EU let alone against it. Eurosceptisism was mostly found in the mainland and amongst the young. In England (predominantly) it was something a select few mostly uneducated, daily express/ mail readers, in the arse end of nowhere had been excited about.
I'm sorry for the mess you got into. I'm Chilean but my sister used to live in the UK - for 15 years to be exact - working as a professional very successfuly. Her 3 kids were born there and went to school in London. But last year they decided the economic situation had gotten too bad; neither her or her husband had projects within the UK anymore...so they relocated to Canada and probably will return to Santiago sooner than later. Literally our situation here in a "third-world country" looks better than a supposedly rich nation! I guess at least we have more room to grow, unlike the UK after Brexit. Such a shame. Last time I visited them, in 2019, I could already tell London was in a worse condition than before, especially with all the homeless people I saw.
The decision to leave the EU was the deciding factor in my wife and and I emigrating to Australia on retirement. We just couldn't see ourselves growing old in the country we'd grown up in.
Britain (and Switzerland) need to clean up their whole corrupt organized crime offshore tax-haven (and money laundering) banks problem before they enter the EU. I had heard that the EU's regulations and requirements for transparency on currency production and controls were so strict that both Britain and Switzerland refused full integration into the EU and that is why they kept the pound sterling and Swiss franc.
No way. There are 32 countries that have to agree for UK to be accepted. Nobody has forgotten the steady denial to any deepening of EU institutions and instead pushing for accepting any one with catastrophic results. The best that has happened to EU in the last 20 years is the departure of UK.
nah UK leaving hurts eu too but improves it as well but we must remind ourselves that united we are strong and helping each others will bring more stability and happiness
@@seadkolasinac7220 More united EU, faster responses to the crisis situations due to the departure of the chronically contentious member slowing every process down, approval of EU by member states has never been higher than since the sheet-show that was Brexit, foreign investment relocation from UK to EU, cutting ties with the London laundromat and decentralizing financial apparatus, removal of point of contention because of UK's special status, opt-outs and rebates that the other member countries don't have. I could go on if I thought about it for a minute, but the first few things that I immediately thought of will suffice, I believe. Samo proguglaj EU brexit benefits, Seade. Naći ćeš ih gomilu.
@@seadkolasinac7220 Oh really? What happened to Italexit? What happened to Frexit? EU-Critics became less radical after brexit because they saw how horrible it went.
It seems to me that the UK can never realize the benefits of EU entry if they rejoin vs not leaving at all. Being an earlier member helped set the terms in its favour. Now the UK would have to make greater concessions than before.
I remember Nigel Farage sitting in the european parliament with his cronies grinning disgustingly and they all put up little british flags on the descs. I don't think we want them back. 😆
Very true. We’ll never get the amazing deal we had before. But we will still get an excellent deal. It’ll just be the same one the other members enjoy.
@@Arltratlo that's not what I said nor what I meant. The Brits had an exceptional position within the EU and they simply abandoned it. Getting that back won't happen. I think it's an accurate assessment.
@@kayzeaza 1. the single currency moves money out of the periphery and into germany every year, hollowing out jobs and inudstry and populations of workers, impoverishing most states in the union. 2. the incredibly low birth rates in germany mean they can't continue to subsidize the peripheral countries for another 10 years. 3. the immigration crisis has filled the EU with people that hate europe causing violence and inevitable conflict to come. 4. the european banks are going to collapse, they have so many bad loans they must at this point. 5. they can't and won't stand up the russians, i know you think the russians are losing in ukraine because you watch the old news but come 2024 or 25 i suspect the russians will be in a more advantageous position than they are now. and the europeans can't fix any of this because of their system where everyone has a veto
@liversuccess1420 Britain needs the EU more than the other way around. Im personally happy Britain left us, couldnt stand anymore watching those British politicians thinking they are entitled to something just because theyre British, being spoiled, and thinking Europe needs to make some concessions so they would stay. Brits made their bed, and should lie in it now. If at any point Britain decides to reapply for the EU membership, they should be denied.
yes of course. Public opinion in the EU would be against the UK coming back just as it was before. I would go down to the street to say "no". Too many priviledges were granted to the UK. The EU is not a "help yourself" buffet. The UK, the peoples must be eagerly willing to join the European project, just as described in the video. But one day, probably in one or two generation time, the UK will have realized the EU is a wonderful project. First they need to go throug their own experience as an outside country in a world run by blocs.
Having been a member until recently doesn't really help much since the UK didn't meet the requirements for new members when they were written, let alone when it left. Any divergence after that just makes it worse.
i think there are more real Europeans in Turkey as in the UK... just put the UK behind the Turkish EU application, first deal with Turkey.... and after that have maybe, maybe a look at England, because i expect Scotland to veto them, with France!
@@Arltratlo Well, there wouldn't be anything to deal with if GB was "put behind" Turkey - since easily 20 of nowadays 27 EU-members won't accept Turkey in ever.
And hereby lies the problem. I'd love for the UK to rejoin, schengen and euro zone included, but until we rid ourselves of the British nationalism/exceptionalism attitudes, its not really in the EU's interest for us to rejoin
@@belstar1128 And that's exactly the reason why the UK won't be welcomed back in the EU for the next 50 years. We have other problematic nations to deal with first.
No offense, but I would prefer if the UK stayed out of the EU, at least for the next 15 years. We need to sort out some stuff and I would be worried that the UK would block certain things, so I would rather not give the UK a say about issues of the immediate future. Feel free to join in 15 years when we have decided on our direction and then just accept what we have decided.
@@allyeneedislove to simplify my point for you: the uk is a mess of a country that is dead weight which I don’t want to further drag us down with it. I used to live there and I think the decline of that country is crazy. just focus on yourself for the next 2 decades and then let’s evaluate the situation again.
The most rediculous self inflicted calamity in history by a nation in my lifetime. Bravo England. You have achieved a marvelous distinction. Sorry to be enjoying the shadenfreud so much.
Exactly. The surveys aren't aren't asking the right question though, are they? The right question is, "would you like to rejoin the EU on the basis of no rebates, no opt-outs, joining Schengen and aspiring the Euro." If this gets a majority, we truly are at a turning point.
I'd have voted for that before. I don't get this childish desire to hang onto sterling.Then I've made use in the past of free movement and worked in France.
@@Ikbeneengeit Why? 50% was good enough for the disastrous leave. If leaving required only a simple majority then a simple majority should be good enough to rejoin.
@@rogerphelps9939 Fair point. I would say that because we did a stupid thing before doesn't mean we have to do more stupid things in future. And more importantly, a supermajority would persuade EU states and publics that we're actually serious this time. We aren't getting back in unless they let us, after all.
belgian here, I think that the UK has and always will have a rightful seat at the table of european nations, however itd be nice for your political class to understand that if they ever want the UK back in the EU, they shoud realize that the EU is a political project, not just a trading association, for years your political class has been very dismissive of the EU, enjoying the benefits of free trade and movement but turning its head the other way when it came to EU integration; the special opt outs, the non commitment to join the eurozone, the "I want my money back" type of attitude...
As a Brit, I wholeheartedly agree. The empire-craving-UK-flag-waving section of our society ought to read some history books, swallow their pride, and be grateful for the benefits a powerful seat in the world's 3rd largest market and political union can offer with full political commitment. There's so many economic, political, and cultural projects we could get involved in with the diverse tapestry that is Europe.
You’re mistaking our politicians with people who have a conscience or care for the public good. Our rulers have no morals or care for anything but money for themselves and corporations.
Thanks for the really great synopsis - I have to say that we would be in a much better place if we had leaders, from any party, that were actually interested in what's good for the country - but for decades we've have had leaders only interested in being in power - that is their priority and they will campaign on any issue that will achieve that priority regardless of it's actual benefit to the country!!!
Exactly what Johnson did!! The man did not want to leaveEurope but saw an opportunity for the Tory leadership and convinced himself it was good for Britain. Now with the daily boat crossings France refuses joint border controls and instead it provides cover for the boats towards the English Channel. EU leaders Germany and Denmark refuse to visit the Returns policy. Sunak says it is complex but it is not EU determined to rub Tory noses in it. Can't blame them. Boats will overwhelm UK
@@agnescraig2912 exactly - i've always thought Boris was, at heart, a 'remainer' but decided to campaign for 'leave' expecting to lose but then get to say 'i told you so' for the next 25 years!!! but that blew up in his face and he had to see through something he didn't believe in!!! - And, now you've got me started, i don't think he ever actually wanted to be PM - remember he could have had the job when Teresa got it but managed to get his mate Gove to 'stab him in the back' at the last minute!!! - Phew!!! - And Gove still ended up in his cabinet!!! - It's all really fishy (IMHO)
Doesn 't really matter how many in the UK have regret and want to go back. First of all there are the technical obstacles for the UK: meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Only 4 of them, ut all very challenging for the UK, and one in particular: supporting ever closer union. A lot of the "rejoiners" and " bregretters" still don't know what the EU stands for, or want ever o ser union. They just want back in out of economic necessity. Like in the 1960's. The EU knows better than to create a groundhog day experience. After that, there are 27 members to convince and 35 chapters to fulfil, of which the UK only meets half. To top it off: Schengen and € are part of the deal, and England will never go for that. Safe to say that joining (rejoining doesn't exist) is decades away.
As the electorate changes with time I would argue with your point that the English will never relinquish the Pound. Young people actually embrace change and I think the tipping point for this particular 'hurdle' may only be a couple of decades away.
@@deannilvalli6579 de Gaulle has been proven right in his assessment. It is a mentality issue, thdt might only change when the UK has broken up and England is on its own. Maybe that will end the arrogance and exceptionalism from the empire era.
@@tuisitala9068 thank you for sharing your view. Could be, but you are looking at young people now that have been part of the EU and lost something. Young people of the future will have grown up outside the EU, God knows how they would look to those issues. Imo it will depend on education. As long as the glorification of the UK and it's past continues a new generation of exceptionalists is raised that might be less willing to choose for what they have never experienced than the youngsters of today that realised what they are missing out on.
The EU is still reeling from the aftermath of the 2016 vote…not so much the vote itself but the cynicism and abuse hurled at it afterwards. So many UK politicians debased themselves in their rush to insult EU institutions. This hurt so many that forgetting it will be hard.
Yes indeed. It is a thing that Brits tend to forget that those they insulted so heavily will still remember this later, when the Brits needs their cooperation. That's one of the reasons I do not see the UK back in the EU before toe 2050th.
The EU may still be reeling from 2016. Many Brits, like me and prof JKL, are still reeling from it as well. 48% is not exactly a small proportion and not everyone here is hostile to Europe. Words cannot describe how angry and disappointed I was when I woke up that day in June 2016 to learn the results of the vote. I do have an interest in politics and world affairs, but am usually dispassionate about most issues. All except Brexit. There are many things I am sorry about with regard to Brexit, and hearing here about the British government insulting our friends and neighbours in Europe is yet another thing to add to the list.
I am quite disappointed with the Labour Party. Despite 48% of the population wanting to remain in the EU, Labour has been pretty weak on policies to encourage cooperation with the EU. I recognize that rejoining the EU is politically untenable for several reasons, but Labour could push harder for a softer Brexit that would lessen the impact on the British people. The Tories are obviously worse in this regard but I am still disappointed in the weakness of the Labour leadership.
As a European unionist, I would like to thank the British who voted for Brexit. I am sorry for their sacrifice, but they did us a great service. One would say they have been secretly working for us
You can only join again if you put your heart in the Union and if you feel Europeans because you never did. This includes adopting the Euro currency. Excellent analysis by James!
yep that's why I think it's dead. The brits will never drop the queen on their currency or their ego to enter the EU and just be a region of the EU project. I mean.... it's fine I respect the voice of the people.
@@TheBlackManMythLegend Since the queen passed and a far less popular king took over the sentiments of attachment to the currency are losing ground fast. Most younger people would have no problem at all with the euro, it's often mentioned when ppl talk of rejoining, it's not the issue that it was.
The UK does not appear very self aware and why on earth would the EU take them back? The UK has vacillated over being part of Europe for fifty years, unwilling completely to give up its "Splendid Isolation". Having danced the "on again, off again" jig for half a century, the UK has to fish or cut bait, if the crumbling EU will even consider a new application.
Thanks. I’m not so sure. I think that if we do join it will be because we have finally taken on board the benefits if being European. And remember this is a decision for a younger generation. If we do rejoin, even in ten years, no one under 35 will have voted in the 2016 referendum. And all polling shows the young are far more European than the older Leavers.
Why is this a problem? 27 other countries can live with this. Why can’t we? The euro in fact offers all sorts of advantages, especially as the pound has weakened. Really, I just don’t understand this irrational opposition to working with European partners. I’ve just been doing a 2000 mile trip through Europe. Every other country retains its distinct identity. But they can cooperate on matters of mutual interest. I just don’t understand why sone (increasingly fewer) just don’t seem to be able to take this on board.
@@JamesKerLindsay my MPs can propose legislation on my behalf, that can then vote on it and after the House of Lords pass it into law. Also they can repeal laws. Can MEPs do the same?
@martindunn4470 No. MEPs can’t. And you wouldn’t want them to. The EU is not a state. It is a political community of sovereign states. Power is balanced between the democratically elected governments of those states and the directly elected members of the parliament. If parliamentarians had that right to propose laws it would take power from the members and lead to complaints that it was leading to the creation of a superstate. Equally, if the power was in the hands of the members, you would complain is isn’t democratic enough. The way around this is to allow the commission to make the proposals and the Parliament and Council to decide on whether and how to pass them. But more to the point the Commissioners are proposed by the members and confirmed by Parliament. This was always lost on Brexiters. They presented a simplistic view of the EU and how it works. It is very democratic. More so than Britain. (Unelected head of state, House of Lords, etc.) But Leavers just didn’t want to bother to understand why it was structured the way it was and was in fact designed to carefully balance democracy and state sovereignty.
To put it mildly, the EU is quite content with the way things have worked out, for them, that is. Popular support for the EU is at an all time high, the UK keeps on serving as a prime example for everything that should be avoided, jointly subscribed Covid bonds were issued that HMG would never have agreed to, and the list goes on. Nobody in Brussels seriously believes the UK will be willing and ready to join the EU (the UK is far from meeting the financial criteria for joining, for example) within the next twenty years hence the focus continues to be the Irish situation. Apart from this, Brussels have a sizeable number of topics on their plate that are considerably more important than the problems the UK have created for themselves. We shall see what HMG will decide on Horizon participation. They had agreed terms on which the UK could join but, unsurprisingly, they once again try to renegotiate the terms they already agreed to. Brussels will have none of it.
Could I just why it's not financially viable for the UK to rejoin? Surely with it being one of the biggest economies it would be a net supplier financially?
@@orcho141 What I wrote was not about joining being financially unviable, but rather the UK not meeting the required economic criteria such as public debt levels.
I disagree with the idea that EU support is at an all time high. We wouldn’t be seeing the resurgence of populist parties like AFD (Germany), BBB (Netherlands) and other parties in the polls.
Very clear explanation as always. Though one question: Near the end of the video you talked about Britain getting closer to the EU and joining the Single Market. My understanding is the SM is not something you can join, without being in the EU, EEA or EFTA. The EEA already indicated their reluctance to have the UK join them and the EU have made it clear there will be no more Swiss-like EFTA deals. That only leaves EU membership, does it not? Additionally there isn't much appetite in the EU to have more protracted negotiations with the UK. Unfortunately while much of the Brexit discussion focuses on the UK, very little discussion focuses on the EU's attitude to the UK joining. There seems to be a huge gap in knowledge about how the EU, member states and citizens view the UK joining, it's a pity we couldn't hear more about that from the academics.
Very good point Richard, everything is clear as you have said, but only on one side (the EU). The other side seems to always forget how rules and regulations work. "while much of the Brexit discussion focuses on the UK, very little discussion focuses on the EU's attitude to the UK joining" Because A. This is one man show, the other man has already shaken all the burdens and is moving on. B. The discussion is only on one side (the UK's side) the other side isn't interested in it. "There seems to be a huge gap in knowledge about how the EU, member states and citizens view the UK joining". When does the UK have proper knowledge of things in the EU. If the UK had proper knowledge on how the EU works and what EU citizens think, there would never be this Brexit drama.
@@brigittegleiser-muller2513 I don’t think any government said that, only one article from a Norwegian MP In 2019 Iceland’s foreign minister invited the UK to join in a BBC interview A swiss MP also did the same thing in a Telegraph article I don’t see a reason to block them
Okay, so the good thing about you arguing from the same side I normally would, is that I get to play devil's advocate. 👿🧑⚖📝 The EU still suffers from UK kind of crap pretty widely... Hungary and Poland, obviously; but right-wing populism is a constant threat and election-by-election worry in too many EU countries to list. If we could peek one day under the cling-wrap at the UK, and discover its self-made manure has worked its magic, and British people re-emerge, grown into responsible international members of the international community, then... I think its time to talk. When they're actually ready to join according to the rules without cherry picking and exceptionalism: no opt-outs, no rebates, part of Schengen, adopting the Euro... this will be a sign in the stars that it will be in our interests for the UK to rejoin.
@@martinwinther6013 just jumping in the conversation UK as never been a constructive partner of EU 😉 all about integration UK was always against.we need to grow as a community and seek integration in many levels to be able to be strong in this crazy world . The UK is welcome in a different mood and will to integrate further or else is not welcome 🤗🤗. Never forget you chose to leave the result of a referendum full of lies , Russian interference , the dream of the British empire 😀
I don’t. That was my point. The EU would want to be sure that the U.K. doesn’t try to Leave again. But also many have said that it would be welcome back, under the right conditions.
@@JamesKerLindsay 'Many' ..... Who? When? Anybody of any relevance? ICYMI: it's not 'the EU' that decides, it's the 27 national parliaments and in some countries the electorate via a referendum. On a side note: meeting the CC is a conditio sine qua non - at present, the UK barely meets 50%. See you maybe in the 2070s, should you have done your homework by then. Greetings from the EU27🇪🇺
The UK is too large to be a country like Singapore, or even Switzerland. It’s too small to be a self contained empire - like the USA, Brazil, India, or China. So its not going to be ‘global Britain’….more like a peripheral country like Morocco….
Europe doesn't want it, and it's not in Europe's best interests. May the UK enjoy its newfound sovereignty alongside its close neighbours in the Pacific!
I'm waiting for the reaction of French Farmers when they are told the CAP is unsustainable with all the potential new accession countries that are lining up to join. It will be interesting to see the view of the Poles once they become net contributors. This is all going to be very very interesting.
Thank you for your video! I have a question: Andrew Marr, in The New Statesman, has been arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin the single market - in a Norway-like arrangement. This would restore frictionless trade and freedom of movement. The UK would be in a "rule takers position" (i.e. no influence over the rules of the common market) - but would surely be better than the situation now. However, other commentators have remarked that there is no mechanism to just join the single market. Norway, Switzerland etc are in the EFTA, which has ruled out UK ever joining. So the only mechanism back to the single market is full EU membership. Is this true?
Thanks so much. Great question. I tend to be in the ‘where there’s a will, there’s a way’ school of thought on this. I absolutely agree that rejoining the SM and CU is not only a good, but is essential. Since making this video I have moved to an EU country. The cost and complications of settling here have made it beyond the reach of most Britons now, it is certainly beyond the means of most young people. On top of this, I have had to give up many of the products I bought from the U.K. Again, the cost and complications are just too much. I am also hearing how many people are giving up on the U.K. for holidays and education. Brexit has been disastrous. But on your question, I do think that the EU would be open to discussions for a negotiated arrangement for the U.K. it is still a sufficiently large market for it to make sense to treat it on its own. But the UK will also have to realise that it will be a rule taker and won’t get to set the terms of that relationship. The EU won’t be in any mood for cherry picking. If we want to be in the SM then we will have to be in it on the same terms as others, but without a role in decision making. That’s not going to go down well. But people will have to accept that the alternative is Britain’s continuous decline, which will inevitably also further reduce the quality of public services. All very tragic, and avoidable.
i like England, but i don;t want them inside the Union... They are so close to Washington over global and regional issues that sounds not so good. Also, the European countries desire to forge closer relations, the English don't.
Quite right. Hope you'd accept Scotland. We have always been outward looking and voted to remain. However there is no true democracy in the UK, as the massive English population enables England to outvote the Celtic nations and always get what it wants.
The only way the 'UK' will be able to join is by as individual sovereign countries, I'm pretty sure with the amount of trouble the UK brought planning Brexit and upon leaving has made the EU really hesitant to even consider it, when Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins EU, Northern Ireland reunites with the Republic and becomes a de facto member pretty sure Wales will follow its Celtic brothers and we can all watch as the empire crumbles.
"When Scotland leaves the UK" he says as the SNP crumbles because they're a corrupt money laundering organisation. The word "empire" means nothing coming from a dago.
I highly doubt Scotland is actually going to leave the UK soon. A referendum taking place within the next few governments is doubtful and while independence is leading in polls by a little right now, it's hardly an overwhelming lead. It's also not clear how important the issue is overall. There are probably a lot of Scots who lean towards independence but would place it low on the list of policy priorities. Issues like the NHS and inflation seem to garner more interest. I doubt a majority see another vote as a pressing matter. Same for Northern Ireland - there is still a large majority there in favour of staying in the UK. Not only virtually all protestants, but a majority of catholics and irreligious people as well. There just isn't an impetus there for reunification and probably won't be for decades if ever. And as for Wales, the independence movement is very small. An overwhelming majority support the UK. Something like 80-90% and that's an enormous mountain to climb for any Welsh nationalist movement. The union might not be invincible, but it's pretty robust. It will take a lot of change or a lot of time for it to fall apart. For the foreseeable future I expect it to soldier on. And that's probably for the best - we've already seen from Brexit just how damaging these divisive moments can be.
@@someguy3766 While I'd say you have a point about Scotland what you say about NI is simply not true. The split between Unionists and Nationalists in NI has been narrowing for decades, and by now the demographics are almost evenly split. According to demographic analysis the Nationalists will outnumber the Unionists in 2026. And yes, unfortunately the topic of UK membership is still a highly divisive issue between these two groups. Most Catholics are in support of joining Ireland btw., only a tiny fraction of them support to remain in the UK. The irreligious people - well their position on the question depends on their origin. If their parents are Catholics they usually support reunification, if their parents are Protestants they support the UK. Increasing numbers of Protestants are in support of practical solutions btw, even if that means reunification. That's why the Alliance party has seen such an increase in support - they would prefer to remain in the UK and officially support that solution, but are willing to talk about alternatives as well. And the majority of people voting Alliance are protestants and Unionists. At best the Unionists have a majority even smaller than the Leave majority in the Brexit referendum. It is very, very far away from what you claim. As for Wales - well the numbers you cite are the pre-referendum numbers. Newer polls show support for welsh independance around 28 % as of 2022. Sure, this is still very far from being a threat to UK membership and has also not changed voting behaviour (so far at least), but it shows a huge increase in welsh people being unhappy with the current political situation. And if the government in Westminster keeps ignoring welsh interests it is absolutely possible that the welsh will hold their own independance referendum eventually. And just for the giggles: The movement for an independant Cornwall has increased to almost 11 % support and 14 % support an independant London. Wouldn't it be funny if Londoners decide to leave the UK?
@@HH-hd7nd That's just not true. I dunno where you're getting your numbers from; I think you are confusing religious demographics with political ones. Pretty sure the 2026 projection is for a catholic majority, not a nationalist one. And you're just flat out wrong that a majority of catholics are nationalist - it is certainly true that a majority of nationalists are catholic, but all the polling I've seen shows a slim majority of catholics preferring to stay in the UK. They probably wouldn't use the label 'unionist' for obvious reasons but they prefer the UK for economic reasons. Also you can't just look at what parties people vote for. Unionism/nationalism is not the main factor for most voters in NI. A lot of people vote SDLP not because they are diehard nationalists, but because the see the DUP as incompetent and want more money for the health service etc. Don't get me wrong, anything is possible in the future. Even Welsh, Cornish or London independence. But that doesn't mean any of these things is likely. And it's also important to see these things as complex issues, not simplify them to "catholics are nationalist" or "people vote SNP because they want independence". There's a lot of nuance in the data.
The Euro Zone economy is the one in recession, not the UK. The Euro fell below 1 USD at one stage last year. The UK has issues, and the EU has far bigger issues.
There is a deep, underlying issue about rejoining that I have been thinking about. You mentioned de Gaulle. The reason he vetoed Britain joining the European Community twice is because he thought that UK is ultimately committed to their US relationship over the European project. This of course is true. The Republicans and other US foreign policy elites have often lamented the Brexit, because US policy towards Europe is ultimately one of divide and conquer. UK was supposed to pull the whole thing apart. And to be fair, UK was always the voice of dissent when it came to further integration. Poland was always a close ally in this, back in the day. So if UK really wants to rejoin, there would have to be a committed public debate on what the EU is and what the UK wants from it. It is becoming increasingly clear that the EU is taking on more of a security role, in response to the Ukraine War. Yet the British seem to be utterly committed to the Special Relationship, such as it is today. Sunak was even supporting that NATO expands to Asia, which is utter insanity. And of course British politicians seem militarily committed to fight China, which goes even further into insanity. So it is fundamentally a question about identity and strategy. I would prefer that UK decides upon an European strategy, in defence as well. USA is much too reckless and unpredictable as a partner and that has not changed much during Biden. I also detect a hint of disdain from the American, vis-a-vis the UK. Antony Blinken called Brexit a massive disaster for US interest in Europe and you could even argue that Britain has lost their value as a key US ally, by not pulling EU apart but rather by leaving it.
Actually the official reason the French gave was that Britain was in such a dire economic position and that it had to improve its economy before being accepted. Hypocritical given that France hadn’t paid a penny on British loans since 1931, and still hasn’t, with a debt that now over a trillion.
USA is not that interested in "pulling EU apart". EU and USA although not having a FTA have very extensive traderelations. The European Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world. Although overtaken by China in 2020 as the largest trading partner specifically for goods, when services and investment are taken into account, the US remains the EU’s largest trading partner by far. The transatlantic relationship is a key artery of the world economy. Either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment partner of almost every other country in the global economy. Taken together, the economies of both territories account for one third of global trade in goods and services and close to one third of world GDP in terms of purchasing power. Bilateral trade and investment support millions of jobs in the EU and the US. Around 9.4 million people are directly employed. Indirectly, as many as 16 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic are supported. The EU-US trade and investment relationship remains strong despite the economic challenges related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Transatlantic trade reached an all-time high of 1.2 trillion euro in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 10%. The United States remains the EU’s number one trading partner in services. Bilateral trade in services reached a record in 2021 and accounted for more than 500 billion euro. The size of trade in services and goods between the EU and the US is matched by their mutual investments, which are the biggest in the world and which are a substantial driver of the transatlantic relationship. Total US investment in the EU is four times higher than in the Asia-Pacific region. EU foreign direct investment in the US is around 10 times the amount of EU investment in India and China together. Total investment includes foreign direct investment, where the EU and the US are each other’s biggest sources. In 2020, the EU registered €2.1 trillion in outward stock, and €2.3 trillion in inward stock. The transatlantic relationship is a key feature of the overall global economy and trade flows. For most countries, either the EU or the US is one of the largest trade and investment partner.
@@seanlander9321 The official reason doesn't matter. What was said in the video is true, the UK wasn't committed, that's why it wasn't already part of the EEC. Added to that, France was the big dog in the union and wanted to stay it.
Why is NATO expanding to Asia an insane idea? Is it because you don’t want to pay for the security the US has provided you? An alliance is just that, you get out of it what you put into it. Most of NATO has been riding on the US security coattails. If the EU views itself as a world power then it better start accepting the responsibility of a world power. As an American I would like to see NATO expand world wide where all liberal Western democracies defend all other liberal Western democracies. Stop giving these authoritarians easy target to invade and oppress.
@@trident6547 USA is not that interested in "pulling EU apart". True, as long as the EU follows orders from Washington. But genuine EU sovereignty is intolerable to the US. Were the EU to drift economically towards counties like, say, Russia or China, that would be unacceptable and a reason to f*** up the EU. US undersecretary of state Vicky Nuland actually literally said that: F- the EU. The blowing up of the Nord Stream was both a sabotage of German-Russian partnership and a warning sign to everyone in US orbit that they will do anything to prevent US interests being harmed in the slightest. The UK used to be a Trojan horse, a potential tool to achieve disunity in the EU, but now that the UK left is is no longer useful as such. So now NATO is the tool to keep the EU in line, and so far it works wonderfully. Problem for the EU is that US' interests are not EU's interests (they are even opposite in many ways) and EU leaders have already proven to not want to go against the will of Washington, whatever the EU population thinks (Annalena Baerbock: "I don't care what the population of Germany thinks"). Whatever will happen in Ukraine, or Taiwan, in every scenario the EU will be at the receiving end simply because the EU is not allowed to conduct foreign policy according to its own interests. So despite the current problems that the UK has because of Brexit, in the long term it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. The UK should not try to rejoin but try to make lemonade out of the lemons that it has.
Thanks. Sorry I’ve gone quiet. I’m taking August off. I’ve just completed a 2000 mile, eleven country road trip through Europe and now taking a couple of weeks off for a rest. Hopefully back into everything at the start of September.
The best thing to happen to the EU Britain 🇬🇧 leaving, prior to that it was on shaky ground, seeing what's happened to the UK 🇬🇧 has made the EU stronger.
Regarding the EU taking the UK back; besides Schengen & the Euro as non-negotiable requirements, the Spanish are going to demand Gibraltar back, to the top of the list. Reining in the financial shenanigans of The City would also be a prerequisite.
@@Mmjk_12 The Spanish can veto the UK at the European Council (accession there must be unanimous + a corresponding vote in each nation's parliaments) until the former get what they want. What' the rest of the EU' wants is immaterial at that stage.
I highly doubt that Spain would use the Gibraltar issue as a bargaining chip for letting the UK rejoin. Considering the UK's official policy - that Gibraltar's status can only be determined by a local referendum - the Spanish government know it would be impossible for Britain to give it up even if it didn't care about the territory, because the people there aren't going to endorse such a move. Creating such an obvious and immovable obstacle for Britain would only infuriate the governments of other EU member states who want the UK back in for the economic and geopolitical advantages it can offer. No one is going to be happy with Spain throwing a wrench in the works over a rock.
@@someguy3766 Hungary & Poland regularly infuriate their EU compatriots and get away with it. In fact, don't be surprised if the likes of the PP & Vox campaign on that if the opportunity arises.
@@someguy3766 I think you are correct. The only way I could see it happening if a party like Vox or similar far right nationalist party were in a powerful position in government.
@@someguy3766Spain isn’t very considerate with regions which have different languages and cultures, so I wouldn’t be so sure. And about the UK rejoining, that would never happen. They could join the EU at any moment if they applied and every EU country agrees. But rejoining? No. The EU isn’t the same organization or union they left in 2016, we won’t turn the clock back for the UK in order for them to rejoin.
Dear professor, you should know UK problems are well shared by eu counties, that in fact are worse off than the UK. Why don’t you give the fault of having abandoned the commonwealth ? I suggest you to emigrate to Mikonos in Greece, you’ll be happy there in your beloved union and in good company.
The problem is that sovereignty is not a binary property. You cannot have either everything or nothing. Indeed, with Brexit United Kingdom has only gone from, say, 60% sovereignty to 80% sovereignty (It is still bound by international laws and trade agreements, and its actions are constrained by other great powers.) The most important issue of sovereignty should be the right to leave at any time, and that is something that all members of the EU have and will always have.
If sovereignty WERE a binary thing you wouldn't see self-governing indigenous tribes within the USA nor semi autonomous parliaments for various countries (Wales, Scotland etc) inside the UK
And then the UK joined CPTPP: a trade bloc whose rules the UK had no say in, and UK voters had no vote on joining. Sovereignty down the drain, for a whopping 0.08% GDP growth in a decade.
@maartenaalsmeer the main thing is it's a trading block as the eu used to be it doesn't have a parliament a national anthem a flag a president one currency we also don't have to pay billions a year for the privilege
@@whiskers1776 The english dream of the EU and its predecesor being "just another trading block" is exactly why the french rejected the UK application twice. All the things the now "free" english disliked about todays EU where also in the first treaties, back then as aims. But what we have learned , the english are only considereing themselves free when they can ignore any signed treaties unilateraly. Even decades ago world famous for "renegotiating" treaties. At some point in time they started to call treaties "deals" to make breaking them less problematic. But the world is watching and the value of an english signature is falling faster than the Pound. Johnson indeed was the perfect choice to represent the english.
You can expect one or two EU countries to veto the British rejoining. The UK has been part of continental Europe since 1994 when the tunnel was finished. Unfortunately, British attitudes have lagged behind the reality.
A quels pays pensez-vous ? Je n'en vois aucun. L'Union européenne est une fabrication américaine. La Grande-Bretagne est d'un atlantisme forcené donc je ne vois pas bien quel pays refuserait la réintégration de la Grande-Bretagne dans cette union où l'embauche d'une américaine a un poste important (Fiona Morton) a été évitée de justesse grâce aux pays latins qui ont encore un peu le respect d'eux-mêmes.
Wow! A balanced and realistic and truthful view of reality, how refreshing, I was a remainer and was sad at the result but since I now have an Irish passport, to Brexiteers, "Ya Boo Sucks to you!" What you have done to our young students who want to study abroad in Europe will lie on your soul long after you are gone
As an italian, i don't think the UK should be allowed back in. The EU is not an hotel where you can register in and out as you wish. It's a complicated common project of all the European people. The British people chose not to be part of the project anymore, and they will have to bear the consequences of their decision, whetever good or bad they are.
AS Barnier has said " the EU is already no longer the EU the UK left" The EU is in constant evolution. Who knows what the entrance criteria will be if anf whem the UK applies? The EU has learned to live without the UK and appears to be content with the TCA as it currently stands. In a couple of years it is up for review not renegotiation. Any decision that the EU makes regarding any closer relationship with the UK has to be tangibly in the EU's, i.e. its current members interests and since all 27 have a veto it would only require one of them to decide it was not in their interest to scupper the whole thing.
@@maxharbig1167taking on Ukraine will cause enormous changes to the EU. The CAP will have to be either shut down or changed extremely radically. And surely the decision making process will need to change as well. The centre of gravity of the EU is currently Berlin. But it's moving south and east at a rate of knots. Might be Warsaw in 5 years.
Brits wanting to rejoin the EU! The same mentality that allowed Cameron to introduce the referendum had he thought he would lose he would never have allowed the referendum to take place. Unlike the author I wasn't a babe in arms when the "Common Market" kicked off. We were told it was an economic benefit not for political reasons, why else would we want to join? I thought it was a mistake to abandon your friends to jump in bed with your traditional enemies. I never saw anything that we could not do on our own. Apart from the USA every union has disintegrated. I could be here all day listing the disasters. Like the Euro, was a disaster for southern Europe. My Italian friends said the Euro increased their cost of living by 50%. The worst thing was the £500,000 given to Julia Middleton a member of the British Communist Party to introduce the Common Purpose charity that has rotted the institutions from the inside. The list is endless, paying to run a trading deficit with Europe, the destruction of the fishing industry, overfishing the North Sea and throwing a million tons of dead fish back in the sea every year for ten years. Thousands of dairy farmers going out of business while importing a million litres of milk from France; a policy to destroy British agriculture to make us reliant on the EU etc etc.
my personal opinion is that the veto should be removed and thé eu needs to go for a 2/3rds majority system. The veto allows countries who have petty and selfish issues to override the overall EU
@@franciscouderq1100 if the U.K. is willing to actually be a productive member of the EU and wants go along with it, there not really any reason to VETO
The last time I can remember was when Wallonia held up the UK/Canada deal over its concerns. However, there are some things that only require a qualified majority that an individual veto cannot block.
Not in such important things as new members joining. NATO has an identical joining procedure - if you agree for a country to join, you also agree to send YOUR soldier to go, fight and die for THAT country, if it comes under attack. EU might not be as extreme, but you need to get along with other members even more. Brits have made many enemies with their exceptionalism and constant bashing and blaming EU for domestic mistakes.
@@anitagorse9204 i also believe the new members process should be a majority rule too. The issue is that one country may have trivial issue. Such as Greece with Macedonia’s name, yet because of that countries petty nationalism. The hold block has to suffer. Also if the U.K. can show it is on board with thé EU project and align itself with the EU there no good reason not to have the Uk on board.
Have you considered an update to this video James? A lot's happened in the past 12 months - change of govt. - PM visiting Germany and France more often the Mr Farage has been spotted in Clacton. What do you think Labour's manifesto commitment to closer alignment with the EU will mean in practice? Best wishes.
Thanks a lot. I certainly hope to return to it at some point. A lot has indeed happened. But I think many of the fundamental points I made in the video remain broadly the same. I think it will take quite a while before Britain rejoins. And brilliant point about Starmer vs Farage! 😀
I think you've answered your own question. The UK rejoining would: 1. Still be ambivalent about the political aspects of ever closer union. 2. Still be (re)joining for purely economic reasons. 3. Have to rejoin without it's rebate 4. Have to give up the pound and adopt the Euro 5. Have to give up any hope of controlling immigration (again). I don't think, even among those who could be persuaded to change their minds, the above is worth an extra 4% GDP.
This such an excellent video. You lay out how big and long the jouney for the UK to join the EU would be. Personally I think "rejoin" is a misnomer - things will never be back to how they were, as you point out. Britain won't *re*-join, but it will eventually swallow it's pride and apply to *join* via Article 49, like any other non-EU country. Before that can happen, English (and I mean English) society has to digest some psychological trauma ... 1) the Empire is long gone, Britain's economy is #6 in the world, it is a big fish in the pond of Europe, but that's all it will ever be now 2) It is nearly 80 years since WW2. With the help of the USSR, the USA and its former Empire - yes the UK was on winning side. Get over it.
Thanks so much. You’re absolutely right. Brexit is a product of English nationalism. As someone truly British (English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish), I’ve always felt that English nationalism is the biggest threat to these islands. But looking ahead I like to think that this whole fiasco might finally push England beyond its imperial past. Let’s hope.
@@JamesKerLindsayEngland is still treating the others countries of theUK as Vassals therefore there is a long way to go before such mentality drastically changes
I hope so too, and I think there truly is hope. Reading my comment again it seems so unnecessarily aggressive at the end. Could have put it better, and not directed personally at you in any case. Sorry.
@@timor64I thought your comment was accurate but I'm not very hopeful. Perhaps the English just don't belong in the EU. They never wanted to be part of the big project and I don't see that changing. As far as the average English person is concerned, Europe is somewhere else.
Let's face it The UK is one of many countries that make up Europe. As such, just like any other country the UK has got responsabilities, obligations and rights vis-a-vis its neighbours. Looking forward from the 21st century, if the UK continues with that "empirical mind set", displaying total respect for rule of law, for business and for people, for civil liberties and freedom, then it is only reasonable to conclude how relations with neighbours are likely to be inevitably "difficult". The EU is a trade block within Europe. An association of countries. The EU maintains relations with practically all countries in Europe. The UK is now one of those countries. The UK can chose to trade and to relate with the EU or not. Brexit means Brexit, but let's not forget that the EU block is not Europe The idea of the UK rejoining the EU as a member state, is not realistic, in the foreseeable future at least. The UK has proven itself to be absolutely UNTRUSTWORTHY to the marrow. Not only the EU, but other democracies in Europe have seen close up the shennagans of the UK in refusing to implement the EU-UK TCA (brexit) agreement. They see how the UK tries to undermine the GFA int'l peace treaty. They see how the UK supports bedfellows in NI, such as the sectarian taliban-like extremists there. No need to mention the empirical invasion by GB-UK of sovereign Ireland, or the +850 years of strife, and imposition of sectarianism and borders on the island, dividing people and country Yes the UK is a part of Europe.It does have responsibilities toward its neighbours. Only time will tell, how going forward the UK will try forge relations with other countries in Europe, or with the EU block. The UK can choose to enjoy "smooth" relations, or "difficult" relations. It will not be easy and easy task, because, inter alia, the UK has proven itself to be a really UNTRUSTWORTHY neighbour in Europe.
The uk has no responsibility towards it’s European neighbours, they are competitors as the rest of the world is . This utopian dream you have is nonsensical, you can have friendly relationships but next year could be at war .
UNTRUSTWORTHY? You happily accepted a staggering £300 billion UK cash payment to the EU during 47 wasted years. We were trustworthy then, weren't we? And what are these ''responsibilities'' to Europe? idiotic hogwash.
i was against leaving at the time and im against joining again now, as much as i would like to get back on track with the EU we haven't changed anything, we would only be repeating mistakes. but i do want to point out we are far from the only country dealing with a sudden and drastic shift to the right wing of its political spectrum, though i think its fair to argue we have managed to inflict a greater wound on ourselves in the chaos than anyone else did (in Europe at least) personally i think its fear, the effect of the climate reality sinking in and leaders realising they might actually see the consequences in the lifetime of their own political careers. desperation is often a recipe for authoritarianism, and until we deal with that problem the EU is better off without us. P.S. though i do wish we could get the food standards back again today because the idea of eating American food is repulsive.
European far-right parties bark, but they don't bite and when they come to power they lose support. As Europe grows, the UK will become increasingly isolated.
Rejoining is kind of a pipe dream. It's quite possible that Britons might support it by a 55-45 margin. But unless and until there's a broad consensus, the EU will not be interested. And like how the terms of exit were unclear, I am not sure how much support is on the assumption that Britain can reenter on the same terms that it left. Exemptions are not something that the EU will be interested in negotiating with a re-entering Britain.
@@Litany_of_Fury Leaving was a fringe movement until it wasn't. Rejoining will likely follow a similar trajectory over a similar quarter-century-ish time frame.
@@Litany_of_Fury It was a fringe movement when UKIP was founded in the early 90s. Over 20 years later, it was a powerful enough force to be promised a referendum, with every mainstream politician still encouraging a remain vote, and basically all the punditry looking at polls and being confident that a remain result was coming. Only after the referendum did brexit really become mainstream. So that's my point. Today it's fringe, but over decades that fringe can gain enough clout to get another ballot question. And when that happens, things can change very quickly. The fact that brexit is still a hot political topic 3 years after it was supposedly complete shows that it's not a closed question.
The EU neither want nor need the UK back, they're doing just fine without us and in fact are benefiting greatly from Brexit. The EU's economy has grown three times faster than the UK's since 2016 and the largest stock exchange in Europe is now based in Paris not London. Why would anyone think they'd take us back? If we ask nicely we might be able to get back into the single market but that's about it.
I am extremely skeptical of the UK rejoining the EU within even the next 3 decades. And while some of that will be because of internal British politics I think the bigger issue will be the EU itself. I get the sense that while many people in Europe were dismayed at Brexit, as time progresses it is now seen as a blessing. The UK consistently hindered EU projects and fought against further integration. I think in many ways Brexit has renewed optimism in the EU. And if the EU does pursue further integration it will only deepen the resistance in the anti-EU portions of the UK. And it is unlikely that the UK would receive anything close to the special conditions it received during its original time in the EU. I don't think the EU will trust the commitment of the UK if the country was required to join a stronger EU without the privileges it received earlier. Those that support the EU in Europe are not going to want a hesitant UK that will hinder progress and potentially Brexit again after rejoining.
@@marinusvos It's possible although not easy. The single market is an agreement between the 27 EU and three of the four EFTA nations and not open to anybody else. That can be changed though. Only if all EU and EFTA members agree but it's still possible. As for the customs union, it's actually not exclusive to EU members, it even includes two small British overseas territories.
Leaving ultimately will be a good thing. Lose the opt outs, learn the true value of the EU and shut down the euro skeptics. A more pro EU and committed member to the cause would rejoin. Just don’t let the UK rejoin too soon as the bitter pill must be fully swallowed.
Funny that all previous PMs have been in the remain camp. And it feels that neither of them were serious enough to uphold the exit camp voters wishes. And when it comes to politicians, be it ours or the EU's. Neither of them are truly trustworthy. And folk ought to be careful of Starmer, that man has links to dodgy "think tanks" that seem to influence political decisions. He was in the Trilateral Commission and he's now a huge fan of the World Economic Forum.
Poor Britain. Turns out they're not as unique and special as they thought they were. I suspect they'll try to negotiate a deal that allows them to keep the pound if they ever try to rejoin, and I also suspect the EU will turn them down. That'll be embarrassing.
Great analysis. When UK exited I was sad for months but from todays perspective it seems as a net gain for the EU. Seems that UK and EU are not the best match after all since UK doesn't like the concept of european federation in which EU evolves gradually. That said, we are still staunch allies best seen by the recent Ukraine coalition. Perhaps some kind of separate arrangement like CH or Norway would be most beneficial.
Thanks. It was devastating for many of us pro-Europeans here in Britain too. It still is. I like to think that our place is back in the EU, but I think it requires a generational shift. That is clearly happening. But in the meantime sone sort of halfway house might be a good starting point.
Personally, as a European, I would be against an agreement like the Swiss or Norwegian one. We keep these traits because they are historical, but new ones shouldn't be made. Either the UK is in or it is out, any in between must be granted only to candidate nations. To do what you propose would be to save the UK thanks to Europe, but to make the British retain their pride in staying out, so I'm sorry but the answer is NO.
BREXIT is a complex, horrible and long lasting problem. I am still an EU citizen after 53 years here - but at 67 I am beginning to wonder if Britain will be able to rejoin in anything less than 15-20 years - so I may never see it. I even understand why many EU citizens think Britain will simply NEVER understand what the EU is about - so it should be permanently excluded. However things may gradually change enough to make it possible. At the moment neither of our rather obsolete main parties are even ready to try. I can only hope this issue changes - or destroys them, so they are forced to accept the change.
@plunder1956 Read the notices here. These opinions were much the same before Brexit. Many people in the EU consider the UK to have a superiority complex and to be entitled brats. They wish to remind us that we are "little Englanders". They do not want us in the EU! From what I have witnessed living in the UK, this idea of a huge swing in opinion is just a dream to make pro-EU voters feel warm and fuzzy inside. I know nobody who has changed their mind about leaving, but I have seen pro-EU voters change their mind about the EU!
I've been in the UK from 2004. Seen the benefits of being a member of the EU of freedom of movement. Brits were making money left and right, small businesses were booming, export and import was going through the roof. Not sure what happened, but UK have managed to reverse all of the profits, stopped all of the development. Poverty never been higher than now, displacement. Try to visit any city in Poland and You will see the difference.
I think de Gaulle was right and the UK should just stay out. The EU and the UK appear to want different things, the EU most likely heading to a federalised state destination in the coming years and decades. The best thing they can do now, is co-operate on some critical international affairs.
the EU is heading for collapse in the next decade, it is totally unsustainable. there is no state coming for a bunch of people who have nothing in common, birth rates so low that the germans can't prop up the euro much longer, and a financial system that pushes the money out of poor countries into the rich. its not going to work
What I miss in all these speculative discussions is what the UK thinks they can contribute to the EU? Am not talking about economics but more on how the UK can show the EU they are sincere in their wish to join. Less talk on how joining would benefit UK and more on what you would bring.
That's completely fair, but I think that's the next step of discussion. Really, we should be asking whether we're ready to rejoin, and sadly we are not
@@orcho141 well, that’s exactly my point as ‘ready to rejoin’ should be about more than just economics. These discussions should be in parallel and not sequential.
Thanks. I certainly have a great deal of sympathy for this view. But I still think that a Britain fully committed to the European Union would be an enormous benefit to the EU, and that EU membership would end proudly benefit Britain. But we certainly have to be a full part of it if we do rejoin.
Although a majority of people now regret Brexit, I think pro-Leave sentiment would be reignited if the prospect of rejoining became a mainstream political issue. Although an energetic rejoin campaign could attain success in pointing to the disasters of the past few years, there would undoubtedly be stiff resistance to joining the Eurozone, Schengen, etc. For this reason I don't think overwhelming public support to rejoin could be counted on. Also, great video as always.
Thanks so much. I think you are absolutely right. Once the debate kicks off and people realise it will also mean euro membership, support will drop. But so much depends on the prevailing conditions at the time. More to the point, there must be a convincing majority to rejoin. 60% plus would be what most people would be looking for. I think it will be possible. But it will require a good campaign that seeks the benefits of the euro and Schengen on top of the ‘old’ membership.
I keep being told how much I regret and everyone I know does also , funny I don’t though . What I do regret is that we have not had a Brexit but more of an establishment beating for voting the wrong way . All the bad things we have kept and all the benefits have been ignored .
FOOL ME ONCE SHAME ON YOU FOOL ME TWICE SHAME ON ME. WHO ARE YOU GOING TO TRADE WITH. Perhaps the 70 million turks who farage said we're packing up and heading to England. Where are they.
@@lochnessmunster1189 they won't. Most, if not all, leave movements in Europe imploded after the UKs botched exit. No other electorate will be that stupid.
The British people are an independent race. We don't want others governing the uk and don't want power within others. We voted to leave the European Political Union.
Macron's idea of a "European Political Community" is an ideal half-way house for the UK. It enables the UK to be engaged in questions of European defence and security (which is clearly beneficial to EU member states) while avoiding any question of the UK having to commit to "ever closer union", the Euro, Schengen or ECJ jurisdiction (which UK voters will surely reject when stated explicity, no matter how much 'Bregret' they may express to opinion pollsters in the current year). The EPC is also a handy expedient for the EU to kick the prospect of Ukrainian or Turkish EU membership into the long grass.
cant we just use nato? i mean the eu member states that matter are part of it. dont see why we need a specific european one, seems like a waste of time and money
We still need to see the meat and substances of that so let's keep an open mind Funny that some yr ago people binned the idea of a concentric circle of EU but that political community is exactly that I got a feeling the UK-EU relationship would eventually settle into some sort of Swiss Style where there are series of agreement and probably modulised It's still too soon to tell
@@vinniechan nope, any Swiss style deal has been rejected y the EU already and simple English wishful thinking of cherry picking is not going to change that.
It appears to be serving as a useful entity thus far, but it doesn't provide the UK with the economic links to Europe that we sorely need. So we've got to pursue other angles as well.
If there is a silver lining to all this; is that it reopened the topics of Scotland potentially leaving the UK and Northern Ireland possibly reuniting with Ireland. I have been looking forward to this topic and you delivered it in a succinctly and superbly.
From my perspective as a German I see it like this: I have always been partial towards the UK, have many friends there and visited countless times. So in my heart of hearts, I would have preferred for the UK to stay within the EU. However, there are many reasons why even I think that the UK rejoining just WILL NOT happen. Probably ever. 1) The Uk has always been isolationist and has felt like it wasn't part of continental Europe. Many even look down upon continental Europeans. This outlook on Europe has never changed, and especially after Brexit, it probably will only get worse. 2) Even IF there was a slight chance of the UK returning, it would be under full EU-laws and regulations. No more exceptionalism. No British Pound, probably even a change of your traffic system (however long THAT would take). Just because of this point alone, Britain will never be a part of the EU ever again, because I don't see Brits actually willing to change these things. 3) A somewhat weaker point but it has to be said. What does the UK offer the EU? Sure, the EU would be somewhat more powerful with the UK in its fold, but we have learned that we can do without you. We are still strong enough. Not much has changed in our lives. 4) Can we trust the UK? I mean, if it's THAT easy for the UK to leave, with just ONE referendum, it could very well be that every time you think the EU is too much for you, you can just... leave. And when you need money again, you can just rejoin. Not a good basis to start a relationship on. The EU has seen first hand how easily the UK citizens were manipulated. 5) The UK doesn't get the main goal of the EU. Almost every time I hear from the "rejoiners", officially and inofficially, that they would want to get back into the EU, it's always about "how can the EU benefit me?" and other economical reasons. But that's not even close to the full picture of the EU. The Union is an ambitions cultural and political project, designed first and foremost to bring the people of Europe together in peace, to promote cultural exchange, personal freedom and a strong sense of brotherhood and belonging. The UK has no interest in these things. 6) It would set a catastrophic precedent. If the UK were to rejoin the EU, it would signal to other countries that they can just leave and come back at their leisure. Because "if it worked for the UK, why shouldn't also work for us?". This point is unfortunately absolutely out of the UK's control. Even if you conform to the previous points somehow, this fact would be still a considerable threat to EU-cohesion. So no, I don't think the UK will rejoin the EU ever. If they do, then maybe in 30+ years or so. MAYBE.
I’m a remain and currently live i Netherlands…. I feel that Britain has chosen its path and needs to work harder to make its situation work.. I can’t believe that europe will allow UK back so easily…
Brexit was more than about trade. Normal everyday people woudn't care about trade. Immigration played a huge part as well. The way the leadership is here, they would have screwed up the 'remain' choice as well even though it is the default choice. If it was a mistake, it is because the leadership did not lead the 'Brexit' choice well and was more focused on other things, not necessarily because it was the right or wrong choice.
I believe the UK should be allowed as soon as possible. It is the best for the EU and the UK. The world has become too dangerous for squabbles in Europe. It will make the EU and the UK stronger.
The financial assets of the overseas assets in the UK makes them want to have independence with the Pound. This factor can make it hard for Britain to rejoin the EU because of a finances that may not be the most transparent.
I find it ridiculous that affection for money can turn out to be more important than affection for economic well-being. We will then see when the tourist visa will be placed between the EU and the UK if the British will prefer the circulation limits in order to maintain their pride.
@@ab-ym3bf There are 17 European nations that aren't members of EU, some because they don't want to, some because they don't meet the requirements, so it's absolutely a legitimate question.
@@tessjuel sorry, but you have missed the point of my post because the OP has edited his original post. The original post said "Europe" where it nows says "EU" . In the light you can understand how your post makes no sense.
There is no possibility whatsoever of Britain re-joining the EU. It took three applications to get in, the task is much more difficult now. People of England; you have made a vary hard bed for yourselves. Poverty, misery and dystopia are now to be your lot.
You haven't mentioned that at any moment of the rejoining process Spain could veto the entry asking for Gibraltar sovereignty in exchange. So i don't see the UK dropping the pound, gibraltar, and his special "island" status just to join. I'm guessing that in the near future, the best the UK can do in regard to the EU is to get a Norway deal of some sort.
Yes, I think the only realistic goal for the UK is a Norway style deal. Full EU membership is unlikely to happen because of what you've mentioned. I think it will eventually rejoin but not in our lifetime, probably not sooner then in 22. century.
I'm desperate for the UK to rejoin however I'm not convinced it will happen in my lifetime. The EU's focus has shifted east, relations with non EU members in the Balkans, Turkey, Ukraine, etc., and a looming financial bill to pay in rebuilding Ukraine will take up much of its energies. If the UK (or any other developed European country that's so far stayed out) wants to join they'll have to make all the running and I don't see Labour or the Conservatives shifting that far any time soon.
I live in Ireland but was born in the UK and voted to join the EEC, had I still been in the UK I would have voted remain. I agree it was a terrible mistake, and I agree with your analysis, and re- joining the single market would make sense, but I'm not sure about the need to join Schengen? I say this because The UK and Ireland are Island nations and have no land borders (apart from NI) with mainland EU. If I want to fly to France I need a passport. Although Ireland was (apparently) more open to joining Schengen but opted out when the UK did to preserve the Common Travel Area.
Thanks so much. I agree that it has been a terrible mistake. Although sadly, as you’ll see from many of the comments, that it’s a mistake that many still refuse (or are unable) to acknowledge. All very depressing. Personally, I’d like to see the U.K. return with the euro and Schengen. Formally, both are required for membership now. But there is some latitude on when they are adopted.