Can Solar Storms Collapse our Power Grid? | NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: Shawn Dahl

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Interview with NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s Shawn Dahl on space weather, solar super storms, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and radio bursts. Our conversation details how solar activity is currently being monitored at SWPC, and the protocols put in place for avoiding massive disruptions to our electric power grid during a solar super storm. Impacts of historical storms are also discussed, including the 2003 Halloween Solar Storms, the March 1989 geomagnetic storm over the northeastern United States and Canada, the 1859 Carrington Event, and a recent radio burst back in December of 2023 during our current solar cycle. We’ll also discuss measures you can take for learning and preparing for the next solar super storm.
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Shawn Dahl is a space weather forecaster with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado. He's been with the Space Weather Prediction Center for 9 years, where he also actively participates in educational outreach on space weather and how it affects us here on Earth. He served in the United States Air Force for 22 years in the intelligence and meteorology operations’ fields. After retiring from the Air Force in 2007, he served as a meteorological technician for the National Weather Service as well as the lead weather forecaster for the U.S. Air Force. In 2018, Shawn was recognized by the National Weather Service as a National level Cline Award winner.
By the end of this video, you’ll have a better understanding of our current levels of preparedness, how to interpret solar data and warnings, and the practical measures taken for handling solar events felt here on Earth.
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📃Here's an outline:
1:50 | Shawn Dahl’s journey into Space Weather Forecasting
5:06 | Mission of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
7:11 | Space and Solar Phenomena being monitored at Space Weather Prediction Center
12:48 | Understanding the Data of Space Weather Prediction
25:47 | Events during our current Solar Cycle 25
30:05 | Solar Radiation Impacts on Lunar Missions
31:32 | 1859 Carrington Event’s Lasting Impacts
32:31 | Impacts on the Electric Power Grid
42:34 | Recommendations for the General Public on preparing for solar storms
45:43 | Avionic Communication Problems from Radio Burst on December 14, 2023
52:32 | NOAA SWPC’s Future Projects
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🔗References and Links Mentioned in Video:
1) NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: www.swpc.noaa....
2) NOAA’s Space Weather Scales:
www.swpc.noaa....
3) Solar Cycle Progression:
www.swpc.noaa....
4) The WSA-Enlil model:
www.swpc.noaa....
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🔗Link to my previous Solar Video: Why are Solar Storms being ignored?
• Why are Solar Storms b...
👍If you liked this video, subscribe to Dr. John’s RU-vid channel: / @drjohndev
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· X: / drjohn_dev
Thanks for watching!
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#NOAA #SWPC #SpaceWeatherPredictionCenter #SpaceWeather #SolarStorms #SolarEvents #SolarFlares #CMEs #CoronalMassEjections #CoronalHoles #RadioBursts #Sun #Blackouts #PowerGrid #Electricity #ElectricInfrastructure #SolarMaximum #SolarMax2024 #SolarEventImpacts #HalloweenStorm #Auroras #NorthernLights #CarringtonEvent #Superflares #Podcast #Astronomy #NASA #cosmologist #astrophysics #Physics #Science #youtubechannel #subscribe
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16 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 52

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

As Shawn mentioned, our sun is still very mysterious in so many ways. Let me know if there are any topics you would like to know more about or explore further. Hope you enjoyed the conversation as much as I did. Stay safe out there!

@TrevreWxAZ 5 месяцев назад

Solar cycles seem to undulate between high and low intensities and I just wonder why such variability exists?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Excellent question! Indeed, the sun does fluctuate between high levels of activity to lower levels, with the full cycle from peak-to-peak taking around 8 years. This primarily is due to the sun's non-uniform rotation (it rotates faster along its equator than at its poles). This causes the sun's magnetic field to get tangled up over time. These magnetic field tangles are what cause sun spots to form, which in turn, generate solar events when they collide together. At a certain point, the magnetic field gets so twisted up, that the sun's poles flip, which reduces the magnetic stress and calms the activity down. This ebb and flow of high and low activities is what we refer to as the sun cycle and is the reason behind the constant variability of the sun. I hope this answers your question. If you want a more graphic explanation, feel free to check out my previous solar storm video here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-fl2Yn2A3Ttg.html Thanks for watching and great question!

@TrevreWxAZ 5 месяцев назад

@@DrJohnDev sorry maybe my question wasn't well formed, I'm aware of the suns magnetic pole flip and sun cycles. My question is why are some cycles more active than others, sun cycle 19 for instance is much more intense than sun cycle 25, which is interestingly outperforming expectations. Thank you for your response regardless your channel is quite informative and I'm very interested in how space weather and earth weather interact. :)

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Thanks so much for the kind words and support! And great question! I think this is still in the grey area of human knowledge to be quite honest. While I don’t understand fully the models being used to predict the cycles, I believe it relies strongly on a statistical model with weighted averages on past activity to make the predictions. And while it may offer some clues, it clearly isn’t perfect as we’ve seen over the course of this solar cycle. It also doesn’t shed much light on why this occurs in the first place. I also remember reading somewhere that the sunspot number during the solar minimum can be used to help project the severity of the next solar maximum. The solar minimum doesn’t exactly reach zero sunspots. So depending on the number during the minimum, this helps predict the consecutive maximum. Here’s an interesting article from Quanta Magazine about how scientists anticipate and predict solar cycles: www.quantamagazine.org/how-scientists-are-tackling-the-tricky-task-of-solar-cycle-prediction-20230907/#:~:text=To%20do%20that%2C%20panel%20experts,indicator%20of%20the%20sun's%20activity.

@wanglingfei1134 4 месяца назад

Hi John! This is Lingfei! Just heard from Prof. Seo that you started a RU-vid channel! It is amazing!

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

Hi Lingfei! Thanks so much for tuning in and really appreciate the compliment. It's been fun doing this, and hoping to keep up the interviews in the future. How are you doing? Would really like to catch up sometime. Feel free to send me an email at john@drjohn.dev. Maybe we could have an interview sometime on your work? Thanks again for reaching out and hope you're doing well!

@johngrundowski3632 4 месяца назад

Great program ; chock full of INFO , thanks for your hard work🌌📡

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

Thanks for watching, and really appreciate the compliment. It was really neat to learn about what the sun is capable of and how we're anticipating it here on Earth. It was nice to hear from the main authority on topic, and hope we can get another interview with them in the future. For now, hope you stay safe out there and thanks again for watching 🙏

@Seawithinyou 5 месяцев назад

Also one more question comes into mind that are airplanes with passengers more at risk with these Solar radiation blasts too? Here in Aotearoa New Zealand I caught my first ever Aurora in our beloved city of Christchurch tonight Took a couple of photos on my iPhone but want to more more with my classic old Minolta x300 Exciting times for more solar flares but all must be aware and keep safe and prepared of the unsuspecting Whammy Which could in the not too far future gather more intensity blasts 🔭🌞😇

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

That's a great question, and I'm happy to hear you were able to see the aurora's in New Zealand! That's incredible! I wasn't able to see them in California, but the pictures I saw circulating around looked absolutely stunning. So to answer your question, I do believe that a radio burst could cause serious issues with airplane travel, potentially causing danger to the safety of the aircraft. However, a large enough radio burst at just the right time is likely rare enough to not worry too much. It's tough, since a flare event arrives to Earth so fast, it's difficult to plan around and know when they might occur. Nighttime flying is one way to avoid this, but some trips don't always have nighttime options (or long international flights don't physically allow for it). Perhaps the best approach is to be cautious when planning trips at times of heightened solar activity. Thanks again for the excellent question and I'm happy to hear you were able to see the latest aurora! Maybe more to come!

@davidmcfatridge 4 месяца назад

Even cell phone texting goes further than voice

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

Indeed, the "behind the scenes" mechanisms of our communication systems are often obscured and easily misconceived as all being reliable, without issue. Each component is specific in design, with various reliabilities. It's worth some time to take note of which systems are more optimally designed for certain scenarios. Thanks for tuning in, and appreciate the subscription! 🙏 Welcome to the channel 👋

@oliverc9 5 месяцев назад

Why are we seeing aurora at progressively lower latitudes? Does this mean our magnetic field is weakening? If so, is this linked to the progressive migration of our magnetic north and south poles towards one another? If so why and what does this mean for the future? I am in the UK and we had aurora in Cornwall South England, 5 times in the last year. I do not remember anything like this during the last solar maximum?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Very interesting observations and questions. You're right, there is a migration of the poles, as well as a weakening; however, the field has been noted to have been significantly weaker in Earth's past (perhaps thousands of years ago). This being said, previous animal kingdoms were certainly not as reliant on electricity and technology as we have become, so it is a bit of uncharted territory. The sun is more active this solar cycle than the previous, so this may be a factor as well for contributing to the heightened aurora activity. Here's an interesting paper on the magnetic migration of our planet (both physical and field strength over time): earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-020-01288-x I had wanted to ask Shawn about this, but we ran out of time. I'm still in touch, and a follow up interview may still be in the cards for answering these types of questions. Certainly great to look into further. Thanks again for relaying your observations and thoughts here.

@oliverc9 5 месяцев назад

@@DrJohnDev Thanks for your response! Exactly, I dont worry whether life on Earth is threatened, more so whether our life on Earth is threatened. The robustness of grids globally seems to be an unknown and no governments seem motivated to invest. For me, I just wish we knew more about the current strength of our field so that we may predict how it will reposnd to normal solar events, let alone major ones. As I write this, we just had 7 storms including 4 X class flares that are currently hitting Earth. Even through the pollution, I saw the lights in London! I really hope you manage to get another interview with Shawn, Im sure it would be another great one! Thanks again DrJohn!

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

Thank you @oliverc9 and I'm really happy to hear you were able to see the recent auroras in London! I was unfortunately not able to see them in California, but the photos I saw circulating looked spectacular! Yes, the power grid is something certainly worth investing more in, and an extended collapse would be catastrophic. I'm hoping to get a video on this in the pipeline soon. It would also be great to speak to Shawn again, perhaps at a time when things calm down a bit over at the Space Weather Center. Thanks again for watching, and hope to see you again on here in the future! Take care and stay safe :)

@AnonyMole 5 месяцев назад

CMEs sometimes travel in pairs (July 2012). And the first, I believe, can "clear the deck" to allow the second to travel more quickly to Earth. One other situation that I've not heard discussed is the prevalence of "other" long distance wired systems -- our cable and internet systems. Will induced current in those trigger failures of other types? Fires within in endpoints?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

This is an excellent point, and wasn't emphasized in the video. Right, sometimes pairs, or even extended periods of times. The Miyake events of the past were thought to have extended through the better part of a year. And while we haven't witnessed this extensively in our current technological era, we have in nearby stars. And great questions about the cable and internet systems. The short answer is, yes, these are certainly vulnerable to geomagnetically induced currents, especially the long-oceanic cable systems connecting the internet across continents. In my previous video, I go through some of the details of this. There are safety mechanisms in place to prevent most solar activity from causing outages, but they have their limits. Anything Carrington or higher could cause some serious issues. Here's a link to that video if you'd like to learn more about it: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-fl2Yn2A3Ttg.html Thanks again for the great questions!

@stephshowdown 5 месяцев назад

What an interesting interview!

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Thanks so much for watching! Really appreciate your support! 🙏

@kaosbc 5 месяцев назад

g4 event watch for early may 11th 2024, aroura possibly visible clear into Alabama see NOAA space weather updates

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Right, quite the major sun spot group at the moment. Let’s hope the brunt of it has subsided and it stays at these levels. But the size of the group is comparable to Carrington’s sun spot group. Thanks for providing the update in the comments and certainly a good time to stay updated on NOAA space weather’s main site.

@cm9748 5 месяцев назад

Pole Shift makes things more Dicey right ?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Yes, this is correct. It’ll likely be dicey all through this year, through next year, and even part of 2026. It takes time to get back away from Solar Maximum. Thanks for watching!

@eternallearner6026 5 месяцев назад

Wonder how the call between nasa and noaa will go today

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Yeah, it’ll probably be a bit tense on that one. And the grid call as well. Even G4’s can cause some problems and disruptions. We’ll see how it plays out this weekend 🤞

@Seawithinyou 5 месяцев назад

One question I would like to ask Is if a Carrington event did happen and it destroyed our satellites would EV vehicles still operate?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Great question! So a major solar event like the Carrington could indirectly affect EV vehicles if it causes a collapse of the power grid. There wouldn't be enough power charge the cars, although the solar powered stations would likely be fine. Unfortunately, a total grid collapse wouldn't leave gas powered vehicles unscathed either, as gas stations rely on power to pump fuel, so there would be a crisis in most transportation services. Really hope to not have to live through something like this. Let me know if you have any more questions and thanks for watching!

@Mike-hc3nn 5 месяцев назад

The Carrington event was an X80 flare and in 1859 they had a full magnetosphere. We are currently down approximately 35%. This is why we saw auroras at the equator. The last time that happened was 103 years ago with an X50. This time it took an X3. Nothing would work if we get a Carrington event repeat. Possibly even put us back to the Bronze Age.

@DrJohnDev 3 месяца назад

Scary stuff!

@DrJohnDev 3 месяца назад

Yeah, it’s quite scary to think what would happen. A world without electricity for an extended period of time would make covid look completely laughable.

@RavensEdge23 5 месяцев назад

We're heading into a grand solar minimum, our shield is down, probably more than 20% by now. All things "normal" when it comes to climate, etc., is off the menu.

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. But yes, climate is the tip of the iceberg as far as items of concern for what our planet and sun can throw at us.

@Mike-hc3nn 5 месяцев назад

It’s Solar maximum not minimum. And it’s approx 35% down. There was an acceleration an few months ago. It won’t take much to put the lights out if it carries on.

@RavensEdge23 5 месяцев назад

@@Mike-hc3nn we're in a period of solar maximum within this 11 yr solar cycle, yes. However in the greater picture, we are headed into a grand solar minimum/pole-flip/solar micro-nova. And yes, the grid probably isnt going to make it much longer.

@jollygreen1862 5 месяцев назад

Talk about how the sun and earthquakes next

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

That's funny you mentioned this. I was considering doing an earthquake video soon actually. My plan was to cover the power grid, how it works, and specific vulnerabilities, but after this, coming to earthquakes (and how the sun can affect these too). Thanks for the great suggestion!

@ZorinMotion 5 месяцев назад

literally anything - oh my god💀 good video anyway😁

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Right, it’s interesting how the grid almost needs to be stress tested in order to find out how much it can handle. Almost as if we won’t really know until it happens… Hopefully no time soon 🤞 Thanks for watching!

@ZorinMotion 5 месяцев назад

@@DrJohnDev from what i understand, geo magnetic storm cant really damage something like laptop, car or a phone, its need to be like kilometer long wire or something like this, especially if its disconnected from the grid. I'm interested, if home wires can catch fire in worse scenario, i understand that thay not as thick and surge protection can just disconnect house if voltage jumps. What you think?

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Great question here! You are right, the long wires are certainly more susceptible to current inductions. My only hesitation with saying homes are completely safe is that they are still grounded to Earth. So it's still possible for the currents to surge through homes as well. Although, likely, large currents would transmit through large transmission lines first, and then overheat and blow up the transformers before making it towards homes. In this case, the lines would be open circuits and no power would get to the connected homes. I think it really depends on the location of the storms and nearby power networks. The reason cell phones may get affected if the grid fails is related to the cell towers not getting powered to transmit and relay the cell signals. So cell phones would fail as well. You're right, though, items not connected to the ground or main grid should be fine. Like computers, laptops, cars. Surge protection should also help prevent fires in homes, but it depends on the strength and time duration of the surge. You could imagine a safety feature being a simple switch. For most cases, it works fine for turning on and off electronic devices. But if the current is too strong, the current sparks across the air gap and continues on its way. So problems could happen like this, essentially bypassing any safety switches. The blasts of current can come quick, and overwhelm these types of systems. For instance, in Quebec, the GIC responsible for taking down their grid, took it out in about 90 seconds. Again, for most scenarios, I would say the safety in place for most homes is fine, but like everything, they have their limits.

@carsonobrian7441 5 месяцев назад

You really work for a living. Not only do you have a long list of accomplishments, but you aren't gathering a flock or putting out a hook to attract views. I am aware that you're following all the necessary steps to arrive at answers, and you're using restraint. How would I know someone who is not A.I. generated from someone who is natural? I, for one, am not part of a gakkel who will just gobble up all the food tossed to me.

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Really appreciate your recognition. Yes, I do try hard to gather factual content and information for everyone. Thanks again for your support and thanks for watching!

@michaelclark7536 5 месяцев назад

So..is the magnetic field around the earth weakening how is it measured. If so, how does that change the calculations in this arena. Is the pole excursion impacting this situation? We are OVER DUE hear that this is a thing this guy knows what he’s talking about. What was that measurement when Que. went down? What is it now and the future predictions????????

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Great questions here, and I'll try my best to answer what I can. So the magnetic field around earth does change over time, but remains fairly resilient. There are many magnetometers around the world (labs that measure the Earth's magnetic field), and together, they can create a map of Earth's magnetic field. These magnetometer locations also help in creating that k-index used in predicting geomagnetic storms on earth. The magnetic pole flip on Earth occurs over hundreds of thousands of years, and while, it is unknown what that means for us today, it seems like life has managed fine during these periods of Earth pole flipping. In case you're interested, here's an application for seeing how Earth's magnetic field has varied over the last 400 years: www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/historical_declination/ I'm not entirely sure about the volts/km when Quebec went down, but my guess is 10 - 100 volts/km, significant, but certainly not the upper bound. And while the sun is constantly being monitored, there's really only so much prediction that can happen. We can rely on trends from previous records. There are some that estimate the Carrington Event is a 100-200 year event on Earth, which means we are slightly due for another one in the near future.

@scottwithington9933 5 месяцев назад

It appears that the north pole moves quite a bit recently on this map while the south pole is much less variable. I had always assumed they were opposite of each other

@DrJohnDev 5 месяцев назад

Right, this does seem counterintuitive, and I believe it's hitting on the edge of human understanding. But yes, the poles, surprisingly, are not completely opposite to each other. The origin of the variability is not completely understood, but it's claimed the molten iron core convection is the chief cause of this.

@aqueneable 5 месяцев назад

I've found the SuspiciousObservers youtube channel to be the most informative source about space weather, the Sun and its regular cycles, particularly the 12,000 year cycle, the coming micronova, the geomagnetic pole reversal, the liklihood of global failure of the electric grid coming soon due to the Earth's diminishing magnetic and ozone layers, which is due to the solar cycle we are in now which comes every 12,000 years and which causes massive global cataclysms. There's no point in shirking or dancing around what people really need to know.

@DrJohnDev 4 месяца назад

SuspiciousObservers is pseudoscience at best.