It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with SVB is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
I believe SVB was making an effort to reorganize their bond portfolio. Yes, they would lose money if they sold their low-yielding bonds. But, they were trying to make up for it by repurchasing bonds on the open market at the higher interest rate.
Although the economy has so far held up, the SVB scenario serves as a warning that Fed rate hikes are still having an impact. At times like this, investors must be vigilant about the next inevitability. You don't have to act on every forecast, therefore I'll advise you to hire a financial counselor. This has been my fallback position for a while.
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The market has been a turmoil since covid, the brief relief rallied for only a year and now the devastating effects of pumping trillions into the economy is here and will be for a while.
it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
A lot of folks have been going on about the bull rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
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Good, more room to cut later. When you have inflation on the ropes you don't let up. Keep the pressure on. Part of the reason rates are this high is because the fed and BoC were too data dependent as opposed to being proactive... Now the trick will be holding the economy in recession long enough until inflation gets back to target. If they ease off and cut too soon, expect rates to go higher in the end and same with inflation. It's happened before in past cycles. I think there is a good chance that it happens again as I don't see our politicians/central banks having the political will to crush inflation.
@JonnyZuccs and as inflation goes up, and everything gets expensive, the government raises the rate. Which is the bat to the back of the head that put u on the ground to give them that opportunity for kicks to your teeth .. lololol
@@TheWhiteAfghancontrol immigration instead of having population grow 4 or 5% Extra demand raises prices but the government doesn’t care or understand about economics and is just trying to prop up RE prices by increasing demand not understanding jobs are weak and debt is record breaking so economy will collapse
@@Rawdiswar Why are people expecting a government commited to helping the big players in real estate to turn around and worry about the average homeowner or buyer?
We have a housing crisis, health care system is falling apart, standard of living is worsening and high inflation. What is next ? In the meantime, we have no idea how many non-permanent residents we have in the country. More people will be showing up at our doorsteps. What is our government doing ?
Encouraging state sponsored euthanization, promoting the LGHDTV cult, printing money, unrestricted immigration to continue descent into 3rd world nation, making homelessness illegal, encouraging more jabs, raising interest rates, lowering interest rates, printing more money.
I have a HELOC on my house in Toronto Ontario which was used for renovations. On Friday I received a letter from Scotiabank saying that the value of my house has been reassessed and that I need to increase monthly HELOC payments by 20% starting in September.
@@DJRS2178 It doesn’t say how much the house was reassessed downwards by. About a year and a half ago the monthly payment was $612. This September’s payment is $1892 incl the extra payments that are now required.
@@eazyb7974 because they are saying the value of the home is less, which lowers my STEP limit, and now there isn’t enough equity in the home to collateralize the HELOC.
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You know what I've realized, when the 'mainstream' media starts regularly discussing a 'taboo' topic like immigration, it's already too late - the damage has already been done.
I think the data shows central Canada and the Maritimes already in recession. Western Canada is still going strong. The impending battle between Ottawa and Sask/AB will be interesting as the Feds overstep their jurisdiction.
BC is in recession already. Everybody feels and knows it. It is just that the "data" is completely clueless. BOC is relying on that "DATA" A disaster is bound to happen, unless we get rid of these clowns running BOC.
Population has grown by over 5 million people in 3 years 2021: 440k PR & 1.5 million TR 2022: 400k PR & 1 million TR 2023: about 500k PR & 1 million TR Plus the 1 million miss counted TR Something is going to break sooner or later
If we do enter a recession, is it possible that we end up with a Mass Exodus of immigrants? Why would anyone stay here if the opportunities dry up? I know this happened in the 80's and 90's which contributed massively to our housing crash. Not taking a side either way, just asking if this is an avenue that's being looked at?
@@twinsiesyt Different. Recession is a great time for the big players. Asset prices become cheaper as does labour and other input costs. Each recession consolidates large corporations who get greater and greater control over everything.
It’s all being done on purpose as per the WEF mandate. More to come. Also, I couldn’t get a Doctor appointment with my Doctor until 3 weeks out. Pain on my right side stomach. I went to Emergency Hospital and waited 16 hours. Tons of people waiting for healthcare. It’s messed up.
Yeah man and it's not only Canada. There is mass imigration happening everywhere except my mother land poland. We have let alot of Ukrainian refugees. I don't agree with this but I'm glad they don't allow 3rd world into poland. It's like they want to eliminate every counties culture. It's all leading towards socialism/ slavery. You will own nothing and be happy. They will keep importing people so that when shit hits the fan it will create lots of crime and bullshit. When Job losses tick up so will crime and theft. There is no where too run as many global leaders are for the 2030 agenda
So the -0.2 GDP growth is not taking into account the change in the estimated population number? so we will have a major revision once stats can changes the count? or is this count change moving forward, thus creating a huge downward momentum in the next releases?
The disparity between Canadian and American wildlife statistics is a canyon! For a country that does so many studies in lieu of action…I can’t figure it!
USA is much more expensive than Canada..............if you compare apples to apples...........USA has 10000 Winnipegs which skews their average price way down (think Mobile, Alabama/Boise, Idaho)............if you compare any like for like comparison (Van to Cali, Tor to NYC), ACTUAL comparable properties aka condo vs condo, 3 bed house vs 3 bed house........Canada still 50% below USA prices.
@@roseoverdose6451 this is a hosing forum. But yes the dollar is the most important. Many years ago in the 70’s the Canadian dollar was worth more than the us $
@@GreenBeanGreenBean keep on telling yourself that over and. My daughter lives in San Jose and nephew in Atlanta. I can tell you affordability based on salary a US house monthly cost is well under the amount in Canada. A house in San Jose isn’t much more than a house in Toronto but salaries are twice those in Toronto. And Atlanta price of houses are way less than Toronto but salaries are equivalent. Canada has the highest indebtedness and biggest housing bubble in the G7. Canada is in big trouble.
@@John-bq9jhSan Jose is the centre of tech hubs of course salaries will be inflated. Canadian housing is out of this world and I agree from a salary perspective, but most major cities aren’t too far behind, most 2nd tier American cities are also much smaller and more secluded than major Canadian cities. Atlanta believe it or not, is much smaller than Calgary in terms of population. If you really wanted a comparison Canada vs California for example would be a bit more fair. Note Canada has a population of barely 40million, California has 80million+ most of Canada’s population (70%+) live in 4 major cities each with a population in the millions. Most American cities with a population of over a million (LA, NYC, Chicago etc) added together don’t account for even 40% of the total country’s population. They also account for a much much smaller proportion of the total housing supply. It would make much more sense to compare Canada to the top 10 largest cities in the US for example rather than country to country. Either ways, Canada is in a bubble, but if you look at the bigger picture it’s not nearly as big as you think it is if you’re comparing apples to apples. The day it bursts the housing crash isn’t also gonna to be nearly as bad as you’d had hoped for, it will still be unaffordable for most as it is in most of the worlds cities with populations over a million…
Remember guys, the government and bank of Canada didn’t force anyone to load up on rental properties. Canadians were trading houses like hockey cards, and now the music has stopped.
Who’s left holding the bag? What about mortgage backed securities where banks sold thousands of mortgages to pension funds and other unions to buy the mixed bag of mortgages from them for a small profit Whoever is left holding these MBS bags will go bust in debt so Canadian pensions at unionizations might not be safe . It’s similar to mortgage backed securities in the US after 2008
30 to 40 years ago Canada was dream country to emigrate and to build very nice if not one of the best in the world life styles. I personally arrived 40 year's ago with one suitcase with clothes and maybe $100 in pocket...with hard work and luck I was able to buy my first house after 4 years in Vancouver, putting 5% down getting very high interest mortgage, but house cost me less than four times my income......looking today new average immigrants (young workers) without huge assets before they move here can only dream to build something I was able to do.....Canada needs workers to succeed, will they come and stay here is another question, to me it looks that people who stay are rich and looking to move to safe country with solid legal system to protect assets and live from money earned somewhere else, paying very little income taxes here but using all benefits Canada is providing.....I was very lucky to move here when I arrived but looking forward I'm not positive about Canada, I hope that I'm wrong and things will change.....
finally someone who understands this. Yearly income today vs housing prices today is completelly absurd, regardless of interest rates. Ill tako 10-15% interest rate on a 4x my income house price.
Thank you Steve finally someone sees. This is why i follow you. We have been in a recession for about 2 months Logistics movement tells uou this. And regarding immigration doesnt take a rocket scientist too see that they were way off walk the major streets malls etc you see it.
I already lost my business to foreigners.. had to stop doing it because im not getting the work.. russians and Ukraine doing the construction jobs now.. i wish i was american , where they protect their citizens jobs.
But how can you explain the fact that when the interest rates where lowered, within 30 days we immediately saw the ramifications in terms of data and the live market? Bidding wars in the housing marker happened overnight.
BTW Oil will hit $200 bucks a barrel in 2025. It could even hit $500 in a spike of chaos. Add in Trudeau 61 cent a litre carbon tax and you will see $3 bucks a litre. Budget accordingly. There I timestamped it for you guys
the government never does because there is no understanding of economy or basic math for that matter. Stepher harper was a PhD in economics so he knows what works and what doesnt
Finally the powers that be are forced to recognize that certain industries have been gorging on immigration to the point where it has crushed Canadians, particularly those under 40. Just be wary of PP as he never talks about reducing numbers.
@@contribution741 Well if he's going to build enough homes and stop saturating the unskilled labour market, possibly introduce more doctors to our crippled healthcare system, then what's the actual problem?
@@milhouse8166 Corporate Canada and Boomer home owners are loving immigration and that is who Conservatives primarily serve. Hammering Trudeau on cost of living is a smart move that shifting a lot of the under 40 vote but he won't do anything to fix it as that would harm the above interests. He genius solution is the good ole balance the budget line which means cutting services to the very people who are hurting the most.
@@Cameron_David_ Never have I heard him say that corporate Canada and boomers are his interests. You're not basing that on the Harper government are you 🧐?
Anyone who think 5% interest rate is sustainable and will only result in a soft landing is completely clueless. Based on my own experience and assessment, I agree with Eby that BOC is making another mistake, in a big way.
the BoC will and should choose recession over hyper inflation all the time and that's why they need to keep going and get the job done or we will have a scenario that makes the 80's look good
Sellers will hit reality in 2024. No one paid attention to house prices but rather the monthly payment. With current rates todays homes are simply unaforable. People were bailed out and thats why they are still in there homes. Unless there is a major policy change or rates come down .. we will see major pain. I know of so many people that got around the stress test with a cosigner. Its all fun and games until the payment goes up. Taking on a 800k mortgage is just dumb in my opinion.
Its almost like hiring by sexual orientation or skin color doesn't always get you the smartest people. I guess their counting gets messed up when working from home 😂
Many investors are not over leveraged, and many owner occupants are. In fact, many more owner occupants will be crushed by high rates than investors (simply bc a large majority of homes are owner occupied)
For all the bears thinking recession = lower prices...............the thing contracting the most is new housing supply (construction workers getting smoked), meanwhile we still growing population fast and hard. Don't hold your breath!!!! Vancouver/Toronto (where the people complain about prices) building permits down 50%+......prairies n co (where nobody cares) permits up a bit which masks how much permits are dropping.................we are heading to NO new supply quickly.
So that would prob mean layoffs are coming. As more canadians renew to higher rates their discretionary spending will not be able to keep all businesses a float, companies will cut the dead weight. Do Canadians have a ton of savings set aside in the event that they lose their job? I keep looking at credit card debt and it is sky rocketing. We are getting stagflation, prepare for living standards to keep getting eroded at a quicker pace than usual.
Most construction workers are tourists in the industry, they don't belong with us. Their mill shut down, and they watched the prerequisite amount of HGTV and now their "carpenters" and "contractors". If people truly understood how trash the product is they bought, they would want to Lynch the "contractors".
@@donm2067 that's why you only buy things that have been done with engineering supervision (through permits n stuff), no fly by night illegal granny suite garbage where they threw up 2 walls and called it a day lol..............or if you got the money, buy brand new from a reputable developer that will last you 50+ years.... no daytrading flips just buy n hold n buy and hold more.
@@darkhorsedesign wages in the cities are indeed going up large, in most cases for the top dogs who are the actual buyers of real estate it is 10%+ (that is how math works, when the average is 4-5% and for a lot of people is below 2%
How are people handing all of the current supply then? Yes most of the current housing is mortgage less but everyone who bought in 2021 at peaks are now hugely underwater. How do we restore affordability (in the non Toronto/Vancouver areas as they’re not affordable either!). If house prices and inadvertently rent keep going up who will be able to afford housing at all in this country? Will this not lead to emigration?
We have our road runner and coyote moment from the cartoon loonie toons. The coyote chases after road runner and runs so fast off a cliff, there is a lag before he finds out that there is no solid footing. Gravity and fundamentals win in the end. The soft landing narrative was purely political and rooted in hope and wishful thinking.
Well I don't know what eveyone is talking about ...I raised my rates a long time ago ...heart rate ....blood pressure...anxiety...you name it my rate increased the day JT told us " the budget will balance itself "😅....the stupidity rate went through the roof!
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If the interest rate is your primary consideration when buying a big ticket item, this means that you can't afford it and have no business attempting to buy the said item. Definitely speculators, debtors and pretenders are to lose if capitalism is to work. Keep raising rates BOC.
There are a lot of people that own more than one property like my mom. She has 2 properties, one is a condo she rents on the lake in Kelowna and a townhome she lives in. They are both paid off and is looking to buy a house now to live in, and rent the other 2. if she sees prices fall a little bit and a home she likes comes available she will pull the trigger. You cannot control what people do when they have a lot of funds at their disposal. She was a mortgage broker/financial advisor for 30 years at cibc and TD, and has been through a few tough economic times. That experience that the older people have is invaluable as they have been through the ups and downs.
Your mom is the type of individual you/we should be taking advice from not these younger idiots who have never lived through multiple economic cycles... follow her advice and you'll do fine
pretty sure half the problem is all the NIMBY old people that don't want high density developments next door................ is like some Faux Opinion 'news' casters blaming Biden for a hurricane hitting California.
Get ready for the start of the bull run in housing in 6 months 🦬 Phase 1. Pausing rates. Entering recession talking. Plase 2. Lower rates to come. Ppl start feeling fomo. Plase 3. Seeing rates come down. And inventory is low during the winter. Adding to fomo. Phase 4. Seeing stability and uptick in prices. Phase 5. Seeing lower inventory. Higher sales. And off she goes...
Not necessarily...this time around there is not enough cash and lending is tougher...banks will be smarter this time around and OSFI will bring in more rules
@@syedaliabidi1346 not really. The amount of immigration to this country there will be another bull run. Maybe by 2032 it crashes, but Van and Tor are going to boom I feel. 💥
Sounds an awful lot like a wage/cost of living spiral to me leading to rampant inflation again. At best bull case it’ll be 10% to peak. Rates will not be close to 0 in the next few years
@@baseline6786long term housing go up. I agree. but intermediate term it’s going to go down for now. Young Canadians need either to be fed cash or a crash needs to happen in order to keep them around. Also, the higher the price goes, the higher wages need to go (leading to greater inflation hence wage/price spiral) or you lose migrants and go back to a declining population. These are the only two “soft” landing scenarios there can be without a crash and the government doesn’t want either of them. Both scenarios are just as bad by the way affordability needs to be restored.
I hope interest rate increase so that i can increase my rent since this renter cannot afford a mortgage. Also higher interest rate means more free money on my saving. Im going to get a new car with thise monthly interest payment. Higher interest rate mean less housing project, so less competition. Therefore i can increase the rent and they have no more choice. It doesn't lower the demand, it just displace from poor to rich😂😂😂😂
@@Cheesecake98712 we'll.... That's how it work for me. I got 5.18% guaranteed interest daily and I increased rent like crazy because I'm allowed thanks to Trudeau and bank of Canada
Maybe we should kick you out instead. Don’t know why you think you are entitled to live here more than an immigrant is simply bc you were (presumably) lucky enough to be born here.
@@gottasay1157 Ever lived anywhere besides Canada? Imagine being treated by them all like you think of immigrants? Suffice it to say, you'd change your tune pretty fast.
