Anyone telling you the Bull Market is back in these conditions is trying to offload before the bottom falls out. Rates north of 5%, yet prices are the same as when rates were 1.5%. Makes total sense ......
If Tiff thinks he is going to get lower wage growth he is out to lunch. Any new contract that comes up for renewal with regards to wages is going to see massive increases. People are not trying to negotiate 1% or 2% per year increases, they want 20%+ because of how badly we have gone backwards the last few years. House prices may be going down but EVERYTHING else is still going up, energy costs, food prices, insurance, mortgage rates, etc.
@@ronbonora7872 that only works with unskilled workers for the most part, at the end of the day a company can try and control wages but if they need products produced and need certain skilled people to do it their control goes out the window. Do I think every group will get their demands met, no but from what I have witnessed recently all new rate negotiations have been a lot higher than previous ones.
@@ronbonora7872 LOL, you have no clue just like Tiff. Tiff is the reason we are in such a big mess. He is stupid with a big mouth to make people do stupid things as well. When the whole country was in crisis and survival mode during COVID he told every body to go out and buy home. Now he has a big mouth to tell everyone that BOC is pausing. He is just pure idiot and the only person who can probably compete with him in that aspect is Trudeau. Bunch of jokers running this country.
This is just the pent up demand from 6-8 months of people waiting. IT will be a blurp of 2-3 months and then settle back down as BOC pauses in March and resumes hiking .25bps in April.. Realtors are DESPERATE and are about to get nailed for 2022 taxes. They will say anything to get ppl excited and sell a house. Rates will stay high into Q1'2024 at least
Have to agree with you here Steve. There's lots more places on the market all of a sudden. Just 6 months ago, as interest rates started to peak we couldn't find anything close to a reasonable price (same was true for the prior 12 months), and now suddenly there are several units in our neighbourhood that are exactly what we were looking for all at reduces prices from the peak. Yet, somehow, even though we were forced to rent at close to the peak of that market, I'm still seeing comparable units to our rental with non-recoverable monthly costs (interest, taxes, maintenance) that are 30-50% more than what I pay in rent, particularly when accounting for the cost to finance the downpayment. That's based upon the lowest possible discount rates on fixed 5-yr mortgages at 4.5% (the vast majority go for much more than that now). I just don't see a housing price spike happening this year. Not with up to a 50% premium on the already pricy rental market. Mortgage rates need to drop below 3.5%, or prices need to fall an unbelievable amount (perhaps another 30%) for people like me to even consider buying. Like many others in my situation, I'm happy to wait another 2-3 years.
2-3 years to save 2-300k sounds like a good idea. Saving a hundred thousand a year would mean you would have to make 200k. The amounts we are talking about are life altering. Sounds like a no brains bet.
About immigration. My family immigrated to Canada in 1959. In 1963 we bought a house at 6% rates. My dad was a labourer and my mom wired lamps at GE. We rented the upstairs for a few years to help pay the mortgage. Where all these close to a million immigrants over the next few years going to live? They won’t be buying houses not at first. Rents are going to sky rocket and inflation will skyrocket jus as it did in the 70’s from all that immigration from 60’s. Tiff goes to bed every night and repeats his mantra. Romberg: Volcker Volcker Volcker.
Canadians must have a lot of money, I can’t figure out how people qualify for a mortgage up there. $1,000,000 mortgage seems like its normal. Mortgage payment including, property taxes and insurance is probably around $7000/month at 5%. Gross Income needed $140,000.
Chinese and Indian families all chip in. Western families can never do that. Sometimes there are 10-20 names on a mortgage when Indians get a loan to buy farm land. They do the same with homes… they are very traditional and united.
If you really want to bring inflation down just halt immigration for a while. Les people -less demand for everything-less inflation. But, no - you need them to keep the housing Ponzi scheme going, and wages low. Who do you think will suffer from high unemployment and high-interest rates? Not the policymakers for sure.
bobble head Trudoe has to do what the Pope commands. The RCC wants a world wide melting pot to re establish the Tower of Babel....That's why they all go their and bow down to the Pope and his wishes, of whom is just a figure head and subservient to the Black Pope and the Jesuit order..................Willie
Private mortgages are also not subject to anti-money laundering rules. The unregulated lender is not required to identify the person beyond their own policies to avoid losing money. That typically involves just making sure they have enough equity to cover any losses in the event of a default. Some lenders are better than others, but strictly due to their own policies - not regulation. A shocking amount of companies use private lenders to buy homes. We found billions worth of transactions in just the Greater Toronto Area. To sum it up, Canada doesn’t know who bought billions worth of homes, or who borrowed the money to fund the purchases. It’s a great system, subject to no flaws, I’m sure. Canada’s housing minister recently shared that he had just stumbled upon our report. Though he also just announced he’s not seeking re-election this fall, so we might be back to square one. Funny how that always works out. Anyway, back to how people launder using real estate in Canada.
What will the money launders and drug deals do with all their money? Billions of dollars in drugs are sold in Canada every single year. You expect them to buy a RRSP with it?
Private sector businesses are being exploited by OCGs to launder their proceeds of crime. While it is challenging to accurately estimate how much money is laundered in Canada due to the commingling of illicit and legitimate funds, the extent of money laundering in Canada is estimated to be between $45 billion and $113 billion CAD1. Businesses, as facilitators, can be used by OCGs to evade taxes, launder proceeds of crime, and assist cyber-enabled crimes. They can also be used to enable the traffic of illicit commodities and contraband, and can be involved in loss and theft of cargo, goods, and assets, as well as fraud. Analysis of 1725 businesses collected by CISC over a three-year period (2018-2020) reveals that the Accommodations and Food Services, Retail Trade, Transportation and Warehousing, Construction, and Other Services (not Public Administration) represent a combined 64 percent of the businesses linked to OCGs in Canada (see Figure 6). The types of associations include being owners or employees, or frequenting these establishments to conduct illicit business. Chief Superintendent Rob Gilchrist Director General Criminal Intelligence Service Canada
Private mortgages are also not subject to anti-money laundering rules. The unregulated lender is not required to identify the person beyond their own policies to avoid losing money. That typically involves just making sure they have enough equity to cover any losses in the event of a default. Some lenders are better than others, but strictly due to their own policies - not regulation. A shocking amount of companies use private lenders to buy homes. We found billions worth of transactions in just the Greater Toronto Area. To sum it up, Canada doesn’t know who bought billions worth of homes, or who borrowed the money to fund the purchases. It’s a great system, subject to no flaws, I’m sure. Canada’s housing minister recently shared that he had just stumbled upon our report. Though he also just announced he’s not seeking re-election this fall, so we might be back to square one. Funny how that always works out. Anyway, back to how people launder using real estate in Canada.
In my industry, heavy civil/industrial construction it is insanely busy. The layoffs seem to be concentrated in tech which got VERY fat during the last decade while awash in Boomer retirement investment cash and their “it’s different this time narrative”. Couple that with the generational denigration of real skills that lead to good paying jobs and I don’t see wage inflation declining. The sacrificial lambs will be those with useless or low level skills.
@@fillmorehillmore8239 Have you seen these computer guys try plumbing HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA Also forced vaccines will eliminate those extra workers in 5 years no doubt
@@andregagnon7044 Not what I was trying to imply. Those computer guys took a tech job because thats where the jobs were. Now that trades are wanted the next crop of kids may look to that as a career path.
@@fillmorehillmore8239 as someone who builds homes I can tell you 20% of the men/women do 80% of the work..... If you want the same result as everyone else do the same thing! If you want to WIN do the opposite of everyone else!
My worry with the immigration uptick is. What happens when we get an uptick in unemployment due to weakening corporate profits? Then we will have more people competing for fewer jobs. This puts pressure on wages while at the same time it puts pressure on rents. Bad combo.
In Vancouver and Toronto the current market is the “can’t wait to sell” transacting with the “can’t wait to buy.” Having this moment of froth is typical of a bear market. These people transacting now actually help to put in a real floor many months from now. On another note about jobs, ignore the US tech announcements for a moment (especially considering those Tech companies hired many times more employees during the Pandemic than they are laying off now-they are still way up in employee count), how many people do you know who have been unemployed for a number of months? Do you see more and more people in your neighbourhood losing their jobs and staying unemployed? Are growing number of people feeling the unemployment pain and others becoming scared? Compared various moments in past decades, I don’t think people are seeing anything like genuine high unemployment or high unemployment fear. And with today’s generation who have “fun, fun, fun until Daddy takes the T-bird away!” Or “Daddy takes the credit card away” or “Daddy takes the low mortgage rate away.” This generation will not forward think until they are staring in the rear-view mirror at what they lost. That’s why there’s inevitably more pain to come.
The only difference I am seeing in Retail is the fact I see so many different staff. These people must be working only a day or two per week! And not a full shift. Would that increase employment statistics? And I'm thinking who bothers to work so little hours per week? I guess people that are really bored. And people that really, really need the money.
Tiff knows just like J. Powell that unemployment is the way out of inflation they just aren't saying it. The employment numbers dont add up unless they are counting second jobs. The numbers out of the U.S. are also coming in hotter than expected but at the same time record jobless claims? Something doesn't pass the smell test here and I expect those big numbers will be revised. 2023 will be a very interesting year for the loonie hour and the world.
Maybe the central banks are just full of shit and they can t do nothing... I m just saying... Could be wrong but I don't think they will stop any of the inflation..... Maybe the system is just totally broken and collapsed because of the debt numbers...I don t know... All I know is all my life has been a shity economy so what's the big difference now...
27 years ago I borrowed 1M from the bank at 10.5%, learn that is not easy to pay off mortgage!! Properties will go down in price, make no sense to buy property rent it and there is no profit. Government is all the way on tenants side. Is is not easy to be a landlord this days.
All realtors I know are screaming that bull market is back. I did find a lot houses sitting on the market for a long time suddenly get accepted offers. I'm a longterm real estate bull but I don't buy that the housing market on the way back. Patience in this market will be rewarded.
Hey Steve, great video, I love your content. As someone with a pulse on the immigration market, I wasn’t surprised to see the stat with non-permanent resident boom in jobs. Non-permanent residents aka temporary residents or foreign nationals, is probably due to a lot of open work permit schemes for Hong Kong nationals and most notably Ukrainian open work permit holders. I believe there are hundreds of thousands of these applications. In my humble opinion on the housing market, I believe we’re seeing a bear market trap. These cycles take time, affordability is still off the charts and I’m thinking we need to see more significant price declines and inventory. Although immigration may increase housing demand up to 3%, I think considering all other factors, including the foreign buyer ban, prices have a long way to go down (unless wages can spike?) and this is going to be a lengthy and slow grind down.
the rate increases have to follow what the US Fed does, Canada is not independent. ....so far the rate increases have been very small compared to what Volcker did in the 1980s.....The US is stymied now because the national dept is 32 trillion..When Volcker raised rates the US dept was 1 trillion............Willie
Excellent Steve, I agree with your take on things, as we will see things develope further as time rolls on! If our Chief Economist Rosenberg stated 100basis points alone would pop the bubble, but here we are 450basis points holding strong! Yikes
@Smith Ken when you have a good skill, it is normal that you can go global and your name is recommended to so many people and from what i've heard about Mr. Jeff Clark, his strategies must be really good....
@Sonia Jeff Same i here, i will praise mr Jeff Clark over and over again because he has great skills, i started with $2000 and after 2week i received a returns of $6,000 then i continue with him ever since he has been delivering....
Thank you Steve, i really appreciate your insight into the local real estate market, living in Chilliwack as an ex condo/house flipper, im curious with the current data, that the BOC, might raise rates further by 1 or 2 times?
The government allowed all international students to work full time instead of part time from December last year. This created a sudden increase in eligible full time workforce in Canada
they can only do what the USA Fed does nothing more and nothing less......The US is now 32 trillion in debt not counting unfunded liabilities...Thats why the rate hike have been very tiny, not like in the 1980s when the debt was only 1 trillion............Willie
Nice video! 2020 was a rough year for me as I lost my job as a college teacher due to the lockdown. I got introduced to Ms, Gardner, I opened up about challenges I was facing here in Norway, during my time working with her, I was able generate weekly returns on my investment in the money market. We still keep in touch, such an amazing lady.
Hi there, I had little knowledge on predicting the stock market, but with Ms. Gardner weekly analysis and advise profits are guaranteed! I received thrice my initial deposit in a week!!
Ms. Gardner gave me a wide option investing strategies, she introduced me to USD margin lending in which I was able to earn interest with no anticipated downside risk. She made my February a remarkable month!
It hasn’t been easy trying to invest as a newbie with few knowledge. I’m trying to create a new stream of passive income. How can i reach out to her? she could be of great help
the numbers they put out are phony in all financial arenas......I don't see how anyone could possibly believe them..A used car salesman is far more trustworthy.............Willie
Looking at Montreal Exchange interest rate expectations, was 25% prediction of +25 in Dec 2023 this morning, and is now 21% prediction of -25 in Dec 2023 in the afternoon. Crazy stuff.
Having a Canada wide 15% HST would have been way more effective at controlling inflation. This would also put more money into programs like social house. Rate hikes only benefit the central banks.
@@ts9271 MMT. It does work but no government is going to spike VAT while the BOC has higher rates. Either pay the bond holder or the government. Either way people become poorer.
Steve, I am so tired of "added" jobs #'s when they are not broken down by gov and private, and less we demand our Govs to break-it down further - of course not, and let's not delve into the disparity in wage growth - gov vs. priv.!!
Prices have bottomed. They stay flat or go higher from here. Half a million new immigrants EVERY year, and housing CANNOT keep up. There are not enough electricians and plumbers and trades in Canada to keep up to the wave of immigrants. Either you buy now or you never will.
@@pouetpouet941 They gotta live somewhere. They are not going to be on the street. They might be renters, but that pushes up rental demand, which in turn pushes up prices for rental type houses, and reduces the available stock for end users. Or it prompts more policies for granny suites, basement units, garden suites, whatever ... they gotta put the immigrants somewhere. There are only so many places in this country to live.
