Ruchir Sharma, Rockefeller International chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Sharma's thoughts on China's economic challenges, why Xi Jinping didn't make a more overt attempt to woo business back to China, and much more.
There is something they can do about it - increasing household wealth to increase consumption. However it seems to be something they don't want to do because its politically difficult and they would rather be in control of where money goes instead of empowering the individual
They are trying to do that. It’s not that easy. Japan hasn’t really succeeded in doing it and they’ve been trying to increase domestic consumption for the last 30 years
He's not Gordon Chang. Gordan is hawkish and irrational. This guy is just a bear and he has a lot of opinions about other non China related things as well. Many countries have people who are bullish and bearish on the economy. US has more bears than anybody else (Peter Schiff is always negative). People can't get so upset just because China also has (like every other country) people who have positive or negative opinions about its economy.
@@xiaohuijin4952 Jeez man, the guy is the chairman of Rockefeller International. Is your hate for India so blinding that you can't even see basic common sense? What is he saying that is India centric? He mentioned India along with other countries. This hate for India is what is causing you chinese to lose your mind and basic sense. If you had half a brain you would leverage that huge market for your goods.But instead your hate for india blinds you from common sense. Grow up!
I am originally from India living in west. I think he is grossly wrong. The western governments are literally against their own people. The US financial system has collapsed. 2 Trillion deficits every year. By any metric, China is and will continue to be ahead of US.
👎🏻👎🏻 Good by USA! it was NOT nice knowing you! The US ponzi economy, the endless wars, endless sanctions, endless bullying, The daily mass shootings, the mass homeless, the High Crime, The US aging population, the US illegal immigration issue, the ENDLESS looting of the poor country, the crumbling infrastructure, poor education and healthcare, the US gigantic federal deficit, Gigantic consumer and corp debt! the USA fake democracy, corrupt congress, Fake media, fake capitalism! But, China...PLEASE DON'T DUMP ANYMORE USA JUNK T-BILLS! WE need the USA ponzi con going! 🤣🤣
China doesn't need to grow at a rapid pace for chinese equities to do well at current prices. They are priced for a great depression, not flat gdp growth.
my take is that china's gdp won't grow at high growth like 7-8% but will grow moderately at 4-5%, which is pretty amazing for a economy as large as china's.
Its hard to believe anything out of China, the CCP owns many companies, and controls financial institutions and banks. The whole system is counterfeit like many Chinese products.
That’s only until China’s bubble pops like Japan’s did in the late 1980’s. China property bubble is the most inflated bubble in history Over the next few decades China’s population will rapidly decline and age. China’s birth rate is the lowest in the world. Soon the elderly dependent population that burden’s economic growth will outnumber the number of people in the workforce. China’s economic growth rate will stagnate to less than 1% by the 2050’s China’s population is going to decline by nearly 100 million people every decade for the next 100 years. Their birth rate keeps decreasing. And their workforce will shrink even faster than their population. America’s population is projected to grow indefinitely, we have a much higher birth rate and high immigration
Yes they are so wonderful why can't other countries be like them? Maybe you have not taken into account the unsustainable amounts of debt for them to achieve this previously high and now moderate growth figures, it is all financed by Chinese citizens savings in the form of non productive debt (Which has taken place since 2007/2008 and currently sits at 57 Trillion USD of on and off books debt more than the Wider West combined), which may actually be 10% of the growth and therefore GDP will be down to 95%, add in the adjustment for the property sector 10 to 15% reduction of GDP (To 85% or 80% lowest GDP 13 Trillion USD) and the figures don't look to bright, but the CCP won't cook the books, only scurrilous people would say that!?!
@@thomasherrin6798yes yes yes, china takes on unsustainable debt and will soon collapse. And then there's the news China is throwing money at Africa for influence. And China clocks major trade surplusses against all major economies. You gotta wonder which is the truth
They are now a global economic superpower. It is indeed unrealistic to expect them to grow at any rate other than the global average in future. For their stocks, they are very cheap. Ignore them at our peril.
No China population is "Imploding". Mao's one child policy has cut the population. By 2040 China's population will be half what is now. So we going see the breakup of the Chinese state. I don't think the CCP is going survive.
Chinese economy will collapse due to 6D factors -Debt---280%of GDP or $55Trillion as against Global norm of 70% -Demand--38%of GDP as against global norm of 60% -Demography -Drop in working age population by 50% in the next 18 years Diversity in Income - 968 million Chinese (70%of population) earn less than $#83 per month Decoupling - Fortune 500 companies shifting supply chain to Mexico,India,Vietnam Dictatorship-President Xi decisions based on his whims & fancies
Don’t bet against US likewise don’t against China, it still has a lot of growth potential considering its relatively lower per capita income. Both are resilient economies.
Low per capita income in itself does not grant you a higher growth window. It is certain characteristics that tend to correlate with a low per capita income, such as a low supply of physical capital, or a growing demography, or not having a high urbanization rate yet (urban economic activity has higher growth than on the farm ofc). The first two elements China no longer has, in fact it is over-invested into it's capital stock at this point. The one thing it still has of those 3, is there is still a good way to go in terms of urbanization, currently at something like 66%.
China has a lower per capita income maybe because it's not as "efficient" as it says it is, it just chucks non productive Labour at a problem. Tawain income per capita is 6 times more than China's, a very good reason why it doesn't want Beijing running things there!?!
All these pros are very good n making money for themselves. However, none of their analysis and predictions in the public for were correct as long as I could remember.
It's just their opinion, you would have to have deep pockets to bet on China at present, they are not sorting out any of their problems they are just chucking stimulus money after the previous stimulus money didn't stimulate anything, not enough debt is going in to spark up the monster of non productive growth at present. It's either cut back or more unsustainable amounts of debt, as Xi has got his hands totally on the levers of power of every aspect of China's citizens lives I think he will rack up more debt, he doesn't want to be in charge of a declining economy, no way!?!
India grew at the fastest rate this year. So there is some truth in your statement. India under Modi is very dynamic with very fast infrastructure growth.
India may outpace China, but it also has several systemic problems in its economy, the Wider West economies are more efficient as they achieve their GDP with far fewer people than both India and China!?!
his name pronounced Ru-Cheer - the CH is pronounced like CH-INA - not RU- SHEER - but besides that hes weird and has some really bad hair - reminds me of a private tutor I had back in the old country who had seriously bad BO
It’s not that China’s rise is reversing, it’s that China’s rise has already reversed, become a developing country again (China was kicked out of the developing world by the US congress a few years ago), because its growth rate this year is only 5.4%, less than that of India. India is a developing country, China is at best a developing country!😏😜😝
WE AMERICANS ARE EXTREMELY PROUD OF OUR FAILED NEO LIBERAL CAPITALISM WHERE 20% OF THE POPULATION CONTROLS 84% OF OUR NATION'S WEALTH. WE ARE PROUD THAT AMERICANS ARE GETTING POORER, CANT AFFORD HEALTHCARE,EDUCATION,HOUSING AND A FAILING INFRASTRUCTURE. THE CHINESE ARE PROUD OF LEADING IN 37 OUR OF 44 LEADING TECHNOLOGYS ,850 MILLION PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY AND WORLD CLASS INFRASTRUCTURE ,SAFETY AND PROSPERITY FOR ALL INSTEAD OF A FEW. AND FINALLY,A GOVERNMENT THAT GETS THINGS DONE AND IMPROVING THE STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE. CHINA IS NOT COLLAPSING ANY TIME SOON THEY HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR 5000 YEARS.
What about Chinese electric cars taking over the global market? Did you guys forget about that one or is that included in the whole China’s economic growth?
What about the massive subsidies they get? If for no subsidies, they would not be competitive. Hence the EU investigating them for subsidies and China getting mad about it
1. US is 34 trillion in debt, the current deficit is 2 trillion per year. The GDP growth is all debt creation. How long does it last? 2. Only thing backing USD is Oil and the military industrial complex -- which is fast eroding -- with the current crisis in middle east and loss in Ukraine 3. What is real wealth? Is it a fake gdp number or a productive cohesive society. While children learn math in china, they learn that there are million genders in west. Which society has a better future? the "multicultural" identity less woke west or hard working and productive china?
Which country has a larger money supply/printed money? Plus, not counting local government debt in China doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The biggest issue China's government has is that the real estate funding model is broken, and that's how they were funding their operations. So how is the CCP going to fix that? Add property taxes like most developed countries?
You do realize that China has about 2.5 the total as US right? It's in their local government financing vehicles, so it does not show up if you simply google China's debt to GDP (which uses national government debt). Google "China's real debt to GDP" and you'll find much more
@@lettucesalad3560 No, if you look at the recent news, China is actually letting the real estate bubble collapse while subsidizing production. Most EV cars will be made in china soon.
US is more innovative than China (see Gen AI) and leads on Chip technology and the space race quite substantially. China is the one that can’t grow without building ghost towns or connecting tier 3 cities with High speed rail at a ludicrous cost to build and then maintain. No consumption as every Chinese needs to save to look after 2 parents and 4 grandparents, and investment led economic growth is over. China is also trying to build a navy and lead the space race and an end to end chip industry, and BRI… all this whilst controlling their population (every dollar the US spends on the military they spend a fraction of on internal security. With China it’s the opposite) as people are ready to lie flat (as opposed to your notion of hard working productive population) and the workforce and overall population are falling. I mean the game is over for China, they’ll be lucky not to collapse, maybe become a giant North Korea. Ridiculous headwinds and own goals.
China has 300% debt to GDP ratio. The US has 130% even with 33 trillion debt ceiling. Local government debt in China is a joke at 23 trillion USD, 8 trillion in hidden debt, 3 trillion USD in shadow banking, 23% youth unemployment, contraction in manufacturing for most of the year brown 50 PMI . Do the math. Check Caixin Global which is Beijing based and the University of Peking .
India grew at the fastest rate this year. India under Modi is very dynamic with very fast infrastructure growth. Exports are growing and in many markets (such as motorcycles in African countries) India is displacing China.
