Making sense of China’s economic gloom: Investment, debt, real-estate bust, babies & geopolitics 

Shekarji, the Print needs to cover the atrocities in Sandeshkhali. Your publication justifiably made a huge cry over atrocities in Manipur, it's time to extend that coverage to the poor people of Bengal.

What about Sandeshkhali ? Let me make it clear, anyone who doesn't talk about strongly is as criminal as those criminals themselves.

Rahulji should guide them to revive their economy

As a Haryanvi, SG should do a CTC on why Punjab farmers launch a protest on the eve of every national elections, but Haryana farmers don't.

I was listelistening to Atif Mian, a macroeconomist, and he astutely pointed out that China had always built for overcapacity. Basically they had borrowed to produce way more than they can consume so they could export the overcapacity. Now they are stuck with debt used to build that excess capacity

No coverage of Sandeshkhali.😥

Still no video on #SANDESHKHALI. Are you waiting for a Rajya Sabha like shameless Sagarika or because Hindu lives don’t matter when criminal is Muslims & belongs to anti-BJP front?

When will be CTC on West Bengal institutionalised rape case Gupta jee ? Shame on you and your Print

Chinese economy is in a transition state from reliance on low tech high labour industries like real estate furniture, household appliances, toys, textiles to robotics, NEVs, AI, chips etc. The reason for falling FDI is more local investments are replacing it. A good example is Electrical Cars exports have overtaken Japan. It is moving to a higher quality exports. Most people cannot tell the difference between profit and profitability.

Ha ha ha! Cracked open a beer after listening to this! Where are the WUFF WUFF WARRIOIRS now , soiling themselves? Well done Uncle Xi! May you stay in power for the next 10 years!!

1. The idea that an economy should continue to grow for ever and at higher rates is fundamentally wrong. Japan has shrinking population and its economy is almost stagnant. But Japan is not growing poor. Similarly, Chinese population is now stagnant, if not shrinking. So if its economy is not growing too high, it is fine. 2. Having said this, there would always be many structural issues in the economy, which need to be resolved from time to time. Further, there is no need for China to become No 1 economy in the world so soon or otherwise; as long as it is doing well on quality of life parameters for its population, it is fine. Further, China is way ahead of the 3rd largest economy in the world in any case! And whatever be the condition of Chinese economy, it is not a weak country as far as its economy or its military power goes. It can make USA shiver anytime, even if whispers Taiwan!! 3. So let the Chinese resolve their issues. If foreign capital is coming out of China, it means they are selling their investments at a loss and are moving out. Who is suffering loss? Not the Chinese but the Western investors! So bother about the West rather than China!!!!

Well-done. Packed with info. A genuine cut the clutter.

Chinese are enjoying new year holidays with family. And u r talking here about their problems. How kind of you Mr Gupta 👍

I have been a paid subscriber to this channel for several years. I recently convinced my wife to become a paid subscriber as well. Nobody cuts the clutter from the noisy news cycle like Mr.Gupta. Truly a gem of a channel -- just look at this particular episode and how much ground it covers and how clearly everything is explained. Please support this channel as much as you can.

video on #SANDESHKHALI. what happening there?

Another China expert. Never went to China, can't reads mandarin, never interviewed any chinese economists or policy makers. But now somehow become an expert. Good job Mr.Expert!

This is the best summary of the decline of Chinese economy I have seen so far. Thanks a lot .

One thing I would like to point out Gordon Chang and many other well known economists, Wall Street Journal etc had been predicting for the last 2-3 decades that China's economy would collapse. God knows when those fortune tellers predictions are going to be true. There's no harm in day dreaming.

When you look at the issue of intellectual property theft and fakes, the Chinese are WORLD CLASS!!

When it is about China, India seems to follow the footsteps of the US. The US has been parroting such narratives for decades. Yet, China slowly and steadily becomes richer, prosperous and stronger. Even being an Indian we must learn how China has become so prosperous. Stop following the footstpes of the US. Shekharji!!🙏

Where is the video on UK violence by the peaceful community.

Comparison of Labor Productivity levels (USD per person employed per hour): Singapore 59.76 USD/Hour Hongkong 44.68 $ Japan 36.22 $ Korea 28.70 $ Indonesia 10.21 $ India 6.46 $

I will continue to rely on The print for pure information. Thanks thoroughly analyzed and well explained

Once again an excellent episode.Hope to have more like this!

Well, China's Growth has considerably slowing down,But US not only Destroyed the Impressions of expected Recession, It's Growth is Rising and is now at 3% on a Quarter basis, Europeans are struggling due to their own mistakes,From Socialist policies and Social Security Raking up Massive Debts,To stopping Cheap Energy Imports, Allowing Illegal Immigrants etc

you guys don't have an HD camera?

Mr Xi is doing good. Too much bad debt in real estate in China and he is clearing up. Modi did a brilliant job clearing the bad debt in the Indian banking system. Most of the Chinese debt is internal debt and can be wiped out by the govt without affecting his AAA credit score to borrow more from the international donors. USA debt to GDP will cross 200% by the end of the year. Most of these money belongs to international govt as we buy their debt so that they can print more USD. USA will wipe it out but it will still not affect USD as we are fool and we will continue to buy American debt as all our economy depends on USD. Japan’s debt to GDP is over 300% and is mixed.

The innocence with which people below ask Shri Gupta to cover Sandeshkhali brings tears to my eyes. ThePrint has done a perfunctory '50-word edit' and dusted its hands off. Sufficient for future deniability of biased reporting. Don't expect too much more.

Sorry, but you have the wrong take on China. There's no credible source that says their debt to gdp ratio is 300%. If it is an apples to apples comparison, then this is true for many other countries. Ask any international banker if the Chinese economy is a problem, and they will say this is not the case. The IMF report a much lower %. They are investing in all the right things for the future - Public transportation infrastructure, electric vehicles, solar cells, machine learning, etc. It may look like Mexico is the largest trading partner with the US, and that there is increase in US trade with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. But if you look more carefully, all these countries have commensurate increase in trade deficit with China, and the Chinese have set up factories in Mexico, Vietnam and Indonesia so that it looks like the products are emerging from these countries. In reality, this has merely increased the cost of goods traded, and is partially the reason for inflation in the US. Look deeper as to what the real issue is, please.

For the viewers here who wants to seek truth from "facts" presented in this video. First I would like to say, no respectable analyst would say that an economic problem in China is created by arrogance and authoritarianism. This is just bias and ideological. China has made mistakes like any other economy but not through arrogance or authoritarianism. Lets analyze a few points: 1) Babies: Birth rate is a huge problem in China stemming mainly from the adoption of capitalist corporate system and life style that does not reward childbearing and a culture of western individualism that values the pursuit of happiness above all else in life. However, to say that the current economic challenge is coming from low birth rate is flat out lying or trying to be misleading. This is a problem that will bite China 20 years down the road but definitely not now. 2) Real estate: 20 million house sounds alot but can anyone guess how much apartment there are in China? There are over 600 million buildings in China and not all are apartment of course, but this tells you about the scale of China's construction. 20 million is a drop in a bucket and it does not effect the economy in any scale. Secondly, the host make it seems like Chinese banks are collapsing due to real estate dev default. Nothing can be further from the truth. If this is the case, there will be lines of people trying to cash out from the bank. There are currently many Indians living in China, contact them and ask them if the Chinese are lining up outside their bank to cash out. The only organization that collapsed from this is a shadow banking company that primarily caters to high end investors which does not in anyway effect the economy nor the stability of the country. The biggest loser from real estate default is not the Chinese bank, they get to restructure debts and since they are owned by the state, the state has plenty of ammunition to shore up cash. The biggest loser is in fact the foreign investors that get almost nothing from the collapse of companies like evergrande. Many of these companies are some of the largest financial institution on the planet and they are not happy. This is why many are staying out of further investment in China. However, China no longer relies on FDI to grow. It is infact the least important component for economic growth. Domestic consumption and high tech manufacturing is positioned to be the most important. 3) Debt: It is true that China is heavily indebted. But to who? Who is lending and who is borrowing. The majority of debt is coming from the real estate developers which is deflating and resolving shortly and the other are coming from local gov financing vehicle company. This is the problem. The vast majority of Chinese don't pay property tax, so the local gov relies on selling land to raise funds to built infrastructures and spend on other things. Rich local gov like Shanghai and zhejiang has no problem, because they can rely on other income such as corporate tax, but less economically well off place are finding huge difficulties in raising funds to service debts. SO who do they borrow from? The state owned banks, not even the citizen. What does this mean? It is much easier to restructure the debt when it is the gov borrowing from itself. This practice of selling land and heavy borrowing to raise cash is a leftover from the last decade of crazy borrowing and is no longer the case now. SO once this debt is restructured, the problem will be solved. Debt owed to private banks and individuals are much harder to restructure. 4) Deflation: everyones favorite topic for China collapsing theory. While Consumer has tightened up their wallet due to factors such as worsening economic outlook world wide and domestically, it is not the biggest contributors to the deflation last quarter. Take a look at the data and you will find that the drop in pork price and transportation is the main cause. Pork is a staple food and main protein source in China and it is weighted heavily in China's CPI calculation. Price of cars and other transport cost is dropping as well thanks to price wars and cheaper fuel price. This is a welcome sign for most consumers. The other key components stayed relatively stable and slightly increase throughout the year. 5) Geopolitics: What does this have to do with current Chinese economic challenge? Not much really. It is mainly confined in the tech sector and some factories establishing factories overseas to get around sanction. This has nothing to do with neighboring conflicts and has more to do with China vs US rivalry where China is on the defense and the US is always on the offense with sanctions and tariff. Blaming all the tension between some of china's neighbor on China is extremely dishonest at best. this is a complex situation that i wont cover here. 6) China global GDP percentage: This is another dishonest way of judging China's economy. This shrinking of global GDP percentage is primarily caused by the exchange rate with USD. When the US is posting fake economic growth on due to huge gov spending + booming US stocks + high interest rate, most country is going to lose currency exchange rate with the US. Just look at Japanese Yen and Euro for example. If you want to compare GDP to measure economic strength then take a look at the GDP PPP to get a more accurate measure of relative strength. Final word: Look beyond rhetorics and ideologue to seek the truth. When a host or a commentator start mixing ideology such as democracy vs authoritarian or putting human personality such as arrogance or jealous on a country, it should raise a red flag for a biased driven narrative. A bias driven narrative will seek information to support their bias only and ignores the information that goes against the bias. I welcome intelligent discussion and not ideology or hate fights.

Some lessons for Tamil Nadu from the Chinese GDP growth. Three Trillion economy fueled by debts and handouts is a disaster. Hope our people find wisdom.

Fantastic episode SG ! Appreciate the effort to simplify the story of the state of Chinese economy now and the reasons behind. Well rounded episode..

According to maNy economists and China experts, China had collapsed 30 years ago. But what has happened? IMHO, PPP term of calculating GDP in which China alteady the world largest in 2014 till today is more accurate. Why bcoz US can play interest and printing money to boost its economy at the expense of the world. Anyway, shares and financial services accountable a largest portion if US's GDP and not hard tangible assets or products outputs. So whats your take? As regard to US housing bubble in 2008, did US collapsed. Instead u r commenting that US is growing by more borrowing and in a era of dedollarisation trend. It's true that many had moved out from China, so do many that r from Chinese own companies. Eg BYD is building big factories in Brazil, Hungry, Thailand, Japan, Mexico and even India too, right. Huge steel mills are moved to Asean nations too. In general, which major countries in thr world had achieved a better growth with no problems and also in scale. As for India, it is still 5-6x smaller than China even China has zero growth this year. In reality, China is forecasting 5% growth for a GDP 6x times larger if that makes any sense. Again about the accuracy or its govt's credibility or capabilty of China's growth figures since the past and now, today China if you visited there lately speak much louder than any experts or economists had predicted or expected. Heard from CNBC today, The Next China will not be India or Vietnam, It is still China!

Yes debt is going to create economic problems. However, because most of the debt is in Chinese currency, Beijing can “cheapen” the debt by simply printing money to pay it off. Of course that will cause inflation but the danger of debt is over sold. No the real problem is under consumption. China has depressed consumption to reallocate it for growth by investing what isn’t consumed (aka savings) in increasing the productive capacity of the economy. The problem is they have overdone it and a lot of the investment has gone into things that does nothing to grow the economy. Creating housing that no one lives in may add to the GDP, but doesn’t do much to create useful productive capacity. The real threat is the shift in the mood of the Chinese consumer toward pessimism and the decline in young people which all contribute toward falling consumption that can result in deflation. It is deflation that pose a mortal danger to the health of the economy. Beijing will have no choice but to cheapen the currency and trigger inflation as the way to solve the debt problem and counteract deflation. Once deflation takes hold, it can become a death spiral as waves of consumption reduction is followed by waves of companies going under, causing waves of unemployment, which cause more loss of consumption, etc. The last time this happened, it was called the Great Depression.

India is too busy doing propaganda against China, instead of working on it's own economy. I have not seen a country more negative than India. Outside of India no one talks like this about China. It only shows how jealous is India about China's development . Some people say that India is only making it's master USA happy. So unfortunate

This guy was praising Chinese economy for years.Now west is saying he agrees.

The US is also in a bubble. They have printed money and there will be payback especially if they lose dollar supremacy

Great presentation!

Adding to SG, growth targets in journalism are also like - how much advertising you could bring to the organisation to stay employed!

200+ % debt is TOTAL debt comprising govt, household and corporate. Govt debt is less than India's at about 70% of GDP

Fantastic presentation. The way you have explained the downfall of the chinese economy& the reasons behind it in a simple language is what we expect from cut the clutter.

Shekharji - There are exactly half a million unsold inventory in India. 16:00

16:30 the builders in most cases have used the fund for purchasing further lands instead of completing the ones they got deposit for. They thaught they could complete them with borrowings from banks but banks stopped giving them loans.

A good video not only on Chinese economic woes but also on many economic lessons.

China’s struggles have given India much needed breathing space to improve its situation and bridge the gap with China.

I find it unbelievable that the Chinese economy has grown by 5% or 4% during the last two or three years. This would be regarded as a healthy growth rate.

In 2022, Chinese Debt to % of GDP was 7.8 %, while that of India was 9.6% of GDP. So, who has done better, India or China?

Chinese fundamentals are very strong. Their Universities and human resource are among the top. They dont want their country like growth showing cycle of capitalism, like usa and japan. World no-1 economy America cannot provide its 34 crore people a good and peaceful life.

Some articles without praising Modani ji. Thanks

Let them learn! The US were devastated with so many economic downturns and everytime they came out of it, they became wiser and stronger.

This guy is saying a lot of truth l am the United states, l understand what he is saying l have been to China before, their economy was too Export oriented and overreliance of Foreign investment. Many foreigners invested in the Chinese Real estate sector through offshore banks and the Developer companies have declared bankruptcy. Many Chinese people who bought mortgages are seeing the Building projects not completed and refusing to continue to pay. The change to more advanced technology is good but what happens to the lower class who abandoned farms and moves to the cities they are mostly the ones affected and some of the middle class.

Why nothing was said about the huge Chinese foreign exchange and gold reserves? Surely with those reserves, they will pump in money to revive their economy.

@SG, 10:15 mathematics lesson, debt multiply by 6 is not same as debt to power 6. These two are different, one is multiplication and other one is exponential.Between, very good analysis and summary of where China is heading at.

One thing we must remember that no other country in the entire human history has displayed such discipline, creativity and speed in resolving their issues. In popular democracies, parties have changed but policies have remained stagnant. In China, party hasn't changed but diverse policies have been explored. Media's interpretation of China is largely skewed and half-baked.

Their biggest problem is deflation, imagine u already have tons of debt in ur local currency and ur domestic inflation is around 0%.

Brilliant summary!

Down turn in Chinese economy has hit Gandhi family hard too. All the money from CPC to Congress has stopped 😂

Indians don't need to worry about china they are doing a wonderful job.

Please consider dubbing in Hindi CUT THE CLUTTER episode for the larger audience.

Wrongly put Debt is a Power of 6 is incomparable with Debt is 6 times (this should be correct) This is a mathematical way of expressing V S Rao Visakhapatnam

Great video and timely.

Well researched

Great analysis

Dont divert / focus on the Indian economy mess / press freedom / malnutrition / GDP / Price rise / unemployment / agravian crisis.... Shekhar Gupta China has / will takr care of itself / report on the farmers rightful protest amd question the border like barricades...

Gupta Ji, I am from Haryana and scientist in the USA. I always support you and ThePrint does exceptional job providing world's news. Thank you Sir. great job! One day I will be a member of ThePrint.

You said Chinese debt is 300% of GDP, which means around $55 trillion, much bigger than the US debt ($34 trillion)... But have you ever thought China didn't spend as much as the US did ??? The US had several wars like Korea War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afghanistan War, which all took huge money...... In addition the US had Apollo program and had to maintain about 800 military bases around the world..... which are very expensive. But China didn't have all of those (wars, Apollo program, and military bases) ..... Do you know where did China spend that $55 trillion?

Very educative!!!!🙏

China demolished the monopoly of Jack Ma. All Western capitalist countries have anti-monopoly laws. It is about time India also has a similar act.

This is a lesson for Indian voters. Never vote an authoritarian govt. It only appears good in the short term. Sadly, India has no good alternative right now. Congress is a joke because of which INDIA alliance is broken. But I would still vote for opposition, because strong opposition means less authoritarian govt.

One of the best on China, Great

Great in-depth presentation on a very interesting topic! Thanks a lot for sharing 💜

Sekharrji we have to punish financially those states who are not reducing their tfr like south india bengal and all coastal states.

❤Shekhar explains a dry subject like economics in a very simple & next door neighbour language and cheekily also hints that a very much centrally controlled governments ( the way our Modi government is behaving nowadays) may lead the country to a sticky / slippery road.😊😊

Everything that we use day to day in India and the world over still comes from China.

Indian media: China, China, China...... Why not focus on your own house and see how you can improve the lives of your people, inatead of constantly looking at China and wishing ill and celebrating negative news?

Sir... Thank you for analysis

China 's per capita GDP is almost 6 times that of India with almost equal if not less population. Hoping that China will one day become equal to India is wishful thinking.

I cant express how well this video explains things. Ive been reading about this for some time. Kudos to the way the print team to have explained such complex things in a simple way

MAKE A VIDEO ON SANDESHKHALI OF WEST BENGAL. WHAT IS THE USE MAKING VIDEO ON CHAINESE ECONOMY, people sitting in the government already know it, and they are the masters on this subject. SO MAKE VIDEO FOR COMMON PEOPLE AS YOU DONE EARLIER BY MAKING ON MANIPUR.

3 to 4 percent growth is still a solid growth for a very large economy like China's. But that closes the argument whether China can overtake the US as the largest economy. It will not!

Hello Sir.... Pls cover Sandeshkhali.... We deserve to be heard to entire India....

Why are you not calling Mr Basant Maheshwari on OTC?

Need a video on the latest Farm Protests 2.0

Authoritarianism also prevents immigration which could have balanced the lack of enough babies.

Sir need a video on farmers ridiculous demands and strategy of holding delhi to ransom.

More than $ 18 Trillion USD?? according to China's Own Estimates,It is 126 Trillion Yuan or $ 17.7 Trillion USD from Jan 2023 to Dec 2023, So Where do you get this Data, World Bank Comically Estimated China's GDP at 17.7 Trillion USD in 2021,Where as China's Own Estimates show that it is only in 2023,It is 17.7 Trillion USD

I see a huge growth in poverty in india in coming decade. In fact much worse than most countries in our region with the only exception of pakistan probably.

Its just like stocks of large cap companies. Those companies are so big that they cant grow at pace. Same with China. Its economy is so big that its difficult to maintain and sustain the growth

They are building infra assets..... I dont think they crash..... They just slow like Japan

This is one of those rare episodes of CTCs(all of which i watch while having dinner) that am unable to swallow and digest the facts/data explained by SG and as a result of which the same problem occurs with the food.

SANDESHKHALI

As a proud Indian🇮🇳. My love, respect and congratulations to the Maldives ♥ for their wise decision in choosing the superior trading partner China instead of India. It will benefit the Maldivian people greatly. Here is why: - China is 60 times richer than India. (I know it's unfair that the British looted 45 trillion from India, but it is what it is) - China's economy is 6 times larger than India's. - China's yearly growth is 5 times greater than India's. - China has better living conditions and healthcare; on average, they live a whole decade more than their Indian counterpart. - China launches 20-50 times more rockets than India into space every year. - China is a lot more intelligent, with an IQ of 104 compared to India's 76. - China is more athletic and stronger than India, winning 713 more medals than India in the Olympic games. - China won 38 times more gold medals than India the last Olympic games 2021. - China's reserves is 7 times larger than India's reserves. - India is forced to use the Chinese currency when purchasing oil from Russia, Iran, or Venezuela. Due to weak & undesirable Indian Rupees. - China has 21 times more companies in the Fortune 500 than India. *Rovers on Mars* China: Yes India: No. *Brought back Lunar Samples* China: Yes India: No. *Humans in space* China: Yes India: No. *Space station orbiting above us right this moment* China: Yes India: No. *World coverage constellation satellites * China's BeiDou: Yes India's Navic: No, *Indian News* FirstPost: China overtakes US to become world's richest nation. Wion - At $514 trillion, China overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth. Indiatoday - China overtakes US as world’s richest nation. Tribuneindia - China overtakes US as world’s richest country. Businessinsider india - China overtakes US as the richest country in the world. Thequint - China Overtakes US as the World's Richest Nation. Hindustantimes - China overtakes US to grab top spot in list of richest countries. Indiatimes - Global wealth surges as China overtakes US to grab top spot. NDTV - China Is Now World's Richest Nation, Ahead Of US. NewsX - China Overtakes US As World's Richest Nation. India - China Becomes Richest Country In The World, Overtakes US To Grab The Top Spot. Timesofindia - Global wealth surges as China overtakes US to grab top spot. Newindianexpress - China overtakes US as richest country in the world. Oneindia - China overtakes US as the richest country in the world. News18 - चीन बना दुनिया का सबसे अमीर देश, अमेरिका को किया पीछे. Aajtak - छिन गया America से ताज, अब China दुनिया का सबसे अमीर देश. Zeenews - Worlds Richest Country: America पीछे... China बना दुनिया का सबसे अमीर देश. TV9 Hindi - अमेरिका को पछाड़कर चीन बना दुनिया का सबसे अमीर देश, 20 साल में बनाई इतनी संपत्ति. Newsleadindia - चीन ने अमेरिका को पछाड़ा दुनिया का सबसे अमीर देश. List of countries by GDP (nominal) Medal Tally | Tokyo Olympics 2021. List of countries by FOREX reserves. Fortune Global 500 2021 | Full list of ranking. Spaceflights in 2021. Average IQ by Country 2022. *USA News* BIoomberg - Global Wealth Surges as China Overtakes US to Grab Top Spot. Yahoo Finance - Global wealth surges as China overtakes US to grab top spot. *Japanese News* Nikkei - China overtakes U.S. in national net worth to grab top spot. *UK News* Dailymail - Global wealth trebles in last 20 years as China overtakes US with the highest net worth - accounting for a third of world's growth.

At 9:50, Mexico has benefited a lot from nearshoring. It became the largest exporter of merchandise to the US overtaking China in 2023. Btw, how come Martin Wolf became a China enthusiast ?

If Xi wants to decouple economy with US, he would have consulted and thought of this problem long ago instead of pushing for heavy residential infrastructure for people, now they are facing birth rate problems as well as internal consumption economy problem

What is the base of growth of china compared to usa and india

This will have ripple effects on all economies, especially in Africa or even Pakistan, that have become reliant on Chinese investment

Issue that shall not be mentioned #sandeshkhali.

Interesting CTC. But it is old news and old analysis for those millions of viewers across the world who watch Palki on VANTAGE.

Very informative and simple. Most of your presentations are very good. Apart from this you are building a very diversified talents in print. I hope it sustains well

Now I am left wondering about how India would fare on the same metrics- consumption share in the world consumption pie/ GDP share in the world GDP pie, implications of total factor productivity and how India has fared