Thank you so much. The explanation on which suit to develop first was really useful. I kept thinking that the explanation was wrong, as Jxx in diamonds (in addition to Jx) also works, but of course that’s the 3-3 split, which is already taken into account. So thinking of layouts where it doesn’t work (excluding the 5-1 or 6-0 breaks), only Jxxx in either hand for diamonds, and only QJxx in either hand for clubs. So clubs more likely to work, since you need both honours together for it to not work.
?? That doesn't matter. Clubs don't work in the sense that you're almost guaranteed to lose a trick. Then you lose the ace of hearts. Obviously they "work" with you giving up the trick. But diamonds work without giving up a trick For example, if diamonds were split between N-S 6-2 then diamonds would be better than clubs. You'd get 6 diamonds, 3 spades, 2 clubs, and a heart for 12 tricks. Since you're playing for overtricks. But with diamonds 5-2 it doesn't matter because you have to develop clubs anyways. Making the contract is not the question. If the diamonds are 5-1 you'll still get a chance to stop so you're not threatened (you still get to try clubs). Diamonds being 4-2 doesn't threaten anything. Clubs are more likely to be 4-2 or 5-1 in the bad way which halts you completely and also can't be stopped once you realize it. In this case you can lose more tricks if diamonds also fail
In other words, clubs are definitely worse than diamonds. Jxxx doesn't "work" in clubs either in the same sense Jxxx doesn't work in diamonds. But clubs also fail 3-3 But it doesn't matter on this hand because you have to play them anyways. Playing clubs immediately might allow you 12 tricks if they choose not to take their ace because it's early in the play
Watching the video his logic makes no sense because you get time to develop both suits anyways. There's no dichotomy between picking one suit to develop and another. The only fear is that you develop diamonds first and lose your transportation to dummy clubs if they play a spade. Developing clubs first is better because of transportation and ambiguity over taking the Ace heart. Not because of hand possibilities
