You guys are hero’s for recording this. I try to listen to it regularly so I don’t forget. Who cares about carbon or dirty energy, if civilization is murdered by nukes!?
Wow, another important discussion. Chuck is right, I think fear as motivation needs to be brought into more adversarial/tribal debates, its relevance goes way beyond nuclear risk and discussions around fears could go a long way towards diffusing misunderstanding and political tensions in so many domains.
Can’t say this was great Nate. This is third time I’ve viewed/listened to your discussions on use of nuclear weapons, strategic and otherwise with Chuck Watson, and each time it’s depressed me, this time more so. This is not ignore that we have some serious geopolitical issues going on. There was a time, I’m old enough to remember the 50’s and 60’s, when nuclear weapons were nothing like now, in the number of countries that possessed them, or in their explosive power, or numbers. When there’s talk of strategic use we just seem to be getting that much closer to using them, well they can’t be that bad can they. You summed it up Nate when you said: - “Because all the other things that we are working on and concerned, biodiversity, and plastics, Global Heating, and the energy transition, and sustainability, all of that work goes out of the window if the seal is broken, because the we’re in a different world”. I’m not sure this type of conversation belongs on this podcast; it leaves me thinking why should I bother with the environment, shouldn’t we just live for today and sod tomorrow, why should I complain at the amount of plastic packaging, and recycle plastic baa why bother just stick it all in the same garbage bin, buy the biggest most polluting SUV you can afford, applaud those that say ‘just stop renewables’ and want free use of Flammable Fossils, and farmers, use your artificial fertilisers and pest and fungicide treatments as you see fit. And at the end of the day, for pleasure play Peggy Lee’s “ Is That All There Is”. And so tomorrow’have a nice day’, with the caveat, whilst it lasts😞🤔
You know the saying....."You can't worry about everything". I agree with it. I keep nuclear war in the back of my mind, only. I don't have room for it in everyday life. I'm walking a razors edge with everything else. In that sense only...."learn to love the bomb".... (Dr. Strangelove)...
@@everythingmatters6308 Agree, but when you look at the destruction humanity is capable of especially in Ukraine and Gaza, (there are others). All that building debris containing mountains of plastic and none renewable items, and there’s the wildlife. Whilst we focus on civilian casualties, they know they have to move away from targeted areas, some have been told to leave, but the fauna and flora are ignored. Can only see waring and terrorism getting worse as hate is deeply embedded on all sides. We’ve protested to Russia they weren’t following Geneva Convention, well they’ve now seen what you can get away with. Sorry, but you triggered my rant for the day😞🤔
Because we never know if we're gonna die tomorrow, but probably we won't. That means we should get to most out every die, but not live in such a way that if we in fact don't day, we're fucked up tomorrow due to our lack of foresight. Also, empathy help us not saying "fuck it" when we are old so we try to leave something for the rest of the world after we finally take the last train.
For those interested in this topic can search up the conversation hosted by Ted Koppel after the movie The Day After back in 1983. It had Robert McNamara, Henry Kissinger, William F Buckley Jr, Carl Sagan, Brent Scrowcroft and Elie Wiesel as guests. All the stuff covered here such as no first use, the number of weapons and the tensions in the world back then were discussed. It was a miracle and testamount to various folks but particularly Gorbachev and Reagan that the tensions were dialled down.
I am dumbfounded by the incredible wastage of time, money, energy, and human capital that we humans have devoted to death and destruction. I imagine what truly wondrous things might have been accomplished had we chosen a universally beneficial path. Every one of our "sacred" texts exhort a benign approach. I mean we KNOW better, but we collectively act contrary to our own best interests. That scares me, particularly when a discussion about nuclear weaponry begins by mentioning the lunacy in the "Holy" Land.
It's all just a normal combative Capitalist power struggle. Unfortunately, 'competitive' behavior (without rules, where the winner takes all, and the loser dies, suffers) is close to war behavior, but are promoted as faaantastic, whereas everybody knows war is bad. Its false Capitalist dogmas that lie behind this glorified behavior and ruse..
Don't need to be an expert, but instead, just a decent understanding of human history..Every sheltered, disconnected, estranged, isolated, ignorant, self absorbed, ideological, arrogant, and delusional ruling class, has destroyed every civilization, to ever exist..That is why we live among the ruins and rubble, planet wide, of them all..Not rocket science...We have so many different existential threats, lining up and taking aim at this world wide civilization, it's very difficult to understand the order in which our overshoot plays out..But, make no mistake, despite what the techno optimists or intellectual class says, there is no escaping the consequences of our behavior..We cannot escape the cycle of civilizational collapse, because the foundations of civilization for ten thousand years, and today, are built upon greed, ego and violence..That ensures the outcome. Elementary Not rocket science...Every action has an equal and opposite reaction..Trillions and trillions of greedy, ignorant and destructive actions have existential, exponential and apocalyptic reactions...When it comes to nuclear weapons, it's the possible/probable mistakes, that are the scariest part, if you know our nuclear history..It's a miracle we are still here at all..We have thousands of nuclear weapons because of greed, ego and violence(profits)...Every technology that is mass produced, or used for mass production, needs to be studied for years if not decades before being unleashed upon the world, because of the consequences..Profit cannot be the motive, or legitimize it's implementation..Not rocket science, but rocket science is winning the race of how our overshoot plays out, but only by a nose..
Brilliantly stated. My thoughts and feelings exactly, only expressed in much more cogent terms. Ironically, I feel somewhat comforted by your words. At the age of 75 I thought that I was losing my rational faculties. I thank you sincerely.
@@treefrog3349 It's the people who think we will colonize Mars.. Those who think technology will save us, the very technology which is allowing for the destruction of every ecosystem on Earth.. Technology is the latest, in a long list of false gods, and is allowing for the destruction of the oceans and forests and atmosphere and cryosphere..Technology is neutral, not good or bad, but it's dangerous, and should be treated very carefully..And it's those who have bought into this profits over all else monstrosity..And those who think a soft landing is possible, given the evidence..Those are the people who are losing their rational faculties...Your fine..On a side note, I can hardly wait for my forests tree frogs to start singing in spring...And it's not even winter yet..I'm lucky enough to live in a little pocket, that is very much still alive.. Although I moved here from a beautiful forest that I had the displeasure of watching degrade..The trees are still there, it's the rest of the living creatures that are barely clinging to life..Millions of frogs used to come out of the forest and make their way to the river to mate..That hasn't occurred in a decade now..But, thank you..
@@sgramstrup I've personally benefited from capitalism massively..But no, all civilizations and all "isms" are destructive..Humans need to create a culture based on sharing, empathy, understanding that hurting the environment is hurting ourselves..Treating all life with reverence..And not tolerating greed, ego and violence..Which isn't possible in the context of this functioning society..The fertile ashes of this civilization could produce that culture, but at what cost...And are those ashes radioactive and bathing survivors with ionizing radiation..Although, ya, capitalism is systematically destroying everything that allows for life to thrive and exist..It's the pinnacle of the cycle of civilization, until now, and the perfect machine of destruction..
New high yield nuclear weapons? Are these people crazy? My father was a USAF officer who got involved in opposing the ELF project (ultra-low frequency submarine communications) because he thought it was only useful for a first strike, which he thought was immoral. I've followed all these US treaty withdrawals & our general unwillingness to cooperate with the rest of the international community on virtually everything. It makes me so sad. It's hard to be proud to be an American.
@@TacticalMayo By leftist, do you mean opposed to the destruction of human civilization and most life on the planet? Or do you think we can achieve peace by threatening everyone all the time, and that's the preferred right-wing position?
When I was a Special Forces Medic in the USAF in 2009 - I spoke with a young civilian about nukes at a kava bar. He said, "Ohhh, that'd NEVER happen. That stuff is so tightly controlled and regulated." I informed him that 3 years prior, I was briefed that my USAF had "lost" over 32 nuclear weapons. I was given a "tip hotline" - to call if I happened to know where they might be. I was still in training. This is when the fragility of our System really, really sunk in. I hope this alarms people. Because US citizens should be alarmed. We also desperately need a steadfast Anti War Movement in the United States. Our lives depend on it.
I grew up at the head of holy Loch. I grew up knowing the difference between American polarus subs and royal navy subs. When I saw trident coming down the Clyde and was in shock with the size of it. I called them blacks slugs. From the 70's I was a member of cnd, campaign for nuclear disarmament. When I was 19 I said to myself, oh well, I'll be fine, I won't know anything about it if there was a nuclear strike. Pitying other people outside the red zone. So here we are, yes, it's important to know how this industry and warfare works.
Just seen your urgent podcast on my smart tv and am sure now that the American Congress let alone their Presidents have OCD Glad I’m in New Zealand Prayers to All and Mothernature Gods Blessings 🧐🕊🌏🙏🏼
This conversation made me physically sick. This is the path of destruction we are on. It more than likely will become our ultimate forcing function. I am taking the force of this conversation & I am doubling down on life, love, compassion, & empathy because "it matters". A phrase to describe the powerful creative capacities we all have.
What did you expect if you try to take the number one spot of the United States, a formal handshake and acceptance? Absolutely not you will witness Thucydide's trap for the 17th time but at biblical proportions.
There is no “the media”. There’s well-paid propagandists, and RU-vid paid propagandists. And any minute, for any word or image, Google, an “Alphabet Company” can slash your income stream. Somebody better step into the old gumshoe void and get new local news “papers” spun up again, supported by local businesses and reasonable subscriptions. I’ll do the tech part in a way that they can’t be de-servered. I know things. The IT I’m privy to is basically free as well as being server-less
You talk about scarcity. What do you really think is going to happen? More people wanting more stuff...scarcity is going to provoke fighting for stuff.
“Nationalism is the Measles of mankind” Albert Einstein. A quote from a man who knew we all come from the same universe. Carl Sagan ”If you disagree with Someone let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies you will not find another”. These 2 gentleman hint at how the universe ties us all together. Who else has a cosmic perspective?
Wow.... That's a "Are we the baddies?" moment... OTOH, who the hell needs a half Megatron bomb in this day and age? Even more so when the accuracy of the delivery system got so ridiculous they can pinpoint the single window glass pane the bomb is going through into the building.
25:46 "“Slouching Towards Bethlehem" is the last line of William Butler Yeats' poem The Second Coming. It is a phrase used to describe the slow coming of an apocalyptic revelation, which will forever change the world."
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? The Second Coming WB Yeats
I think it obvious why we don’t hear this news. Americans need to come together on the subject and it is vital we maintain vigilance when confronting politicians and where our votes go.
As a whole, us Americans are way to uneducated to perform critical thinking. I think the funding cuts to schools and garbage chemical foods and maybe even some chemicals in the water may have sped up the dumbing down.
You really don't know how we think in the US. We are anti-china to the core of our souls. They don't even need to manufacture consent for a war with China that's for sure.
It’s not quite true that the US is the only nuclear power without a no-first-use policy. France has a policy that they can pop one of as a warning shot. Russia has a policy that says they can use nukes if their state is in terminal danger.
The Ukrainians wanted to greet the Russian troops with salt and bread, but the Americans would not let them. Russia is a free and peaceful democratic nation that would never invade another country or reduce a village to rubble to liberate it. Russians never lie. (Now, send me my check.)
It's kind of like the logic I hear all the time from people. Malthus was wrong, we didn't all start dying therefore we never will. LTG was wrong because no one has started dying yet therefore we never will. Peak oil didn't happen therefore it never will. Nuclear war has never happened therefore it never will.
The number of incidents of people getting rubbed the wrong way needs to INCREASE, not decrease in my opinion. Being uncomfortable, stressed, tested, questioned, etc… I’m pretty sure is what has got Homo Sapiens to where we are today.
Teetering on the brink, is where we are today..We chose the wrong path 500 years ago..We made huge mistakes with the knowledge that came from the scientific revolution..Which compounded with the discovery of fossil energy..And we failed to mature socially, beyond a superficial level..
The Canadian nuclear industry is also looking at the developent of micro modular reactors for military deployment. Our climate predicament does not discriminate, but those in power will have power.
A history of the Holocene is one of ever more destructive weapons from iron, horse, crossbows, compound bow, cannon etc. Refining the ability to kill. Europe from 1500 to 1700, 95% of that period has war happening. War to end all wars did not. Now with nuclear weapons and climate change we seem to be nearing the edge. Pakistan for example is suffering greatly from climate change. With Europe buying as much available nat gas as is available, raising the price, countries like Pakistan have to do with shortages as the country is racked by the effects of climate change. They have nuclear weapons and I wonder if at some point with not much too loose they hold other countries to ransom for commodities to survive. We are not a very giving , noble species
If the Ukrainian war was going the wrong way for Russia and they used a tactical nuke in Ukraine, the war would be over in a few days, the west would get really scared. So, no, an escalation is far from assured after the 1st nuke.
@@TacticalMayo It's an academican question, because the west is abandoning Ukraine, but if Ukraine was winning and Russia used a tactical nuke, everyone would get scared and there's still some people with basic common sense in the pentagon.
Why is everyone so afraid of Trump? I am more afraid of Biden, he is demonstrably worse, Trump was absolutely right when he tried to create trade relations with Russia !!
Isn't it interesting that the Biden administration is the one funneling weapons to three different theatres (Taiwan, Ukraine, Israel) any one of which could ignite a global thermonuclear holocaust, just put the nail in the coffin of the test ban treaty, and just detonated a subcritical nuclear weapon the Nevada desert?
I came on here to see if Nate had a post on Moody's downgrade of the US's credit rating today and heard this instead. Our world is a mess. I'm at a point where I am prepared to die, whether it's by nukes or at the hands of the desperate in search of supplies/food after the market crashes. I cannot live in this fear any longer. But my 2 bits on Iran: when I served in '07-'08, it was Iran that we were discussing, not Afghanistan. They are a powerhouse more under the radar than Isreal in regard to nuclear capacities. Very eye opening broadcast.
Over Time, Multi Polarity may reduce Nuclear Exchange Risks. As about half the People on Earth move off the Dollar to Settle Commercial Contracts, the Energy and Resource Ability to maintain Nuclear Arms will decline as more Energy moves into adapting to the new Reality such as restructuring Supply Chains of Critical Life Support Resources. For now, US Navy has been securing Global Supply Chains. As we move from Globalism to Multi Polarity we may expect US Navy to focus on maintenance of new Supply Chains. The Southern end of Multi Polar World needs to build a Navy to prevent Piracy. US will have ever increasing difficulty maintaining 7 Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups as Dollar declines. For now, we are in Transition Time which is unstable. As we move through this, Risk should decrease due to simplicity Reality requiring great adaptation investment such as reduction of Middle East Oil to America and Possible build out of Venezuela Fields substitute. It's counter intuitive that Multi Polarity may reduce Nuclear Exchange Risks until you start looking at the enormous Resources needed to move from Globalism to Multi Polarity. US Navy ships are in great need of refitting as may be Judged by the Shipyard Act which failed to pass through Congress which was intended to build Ship Yard capacity to retrofit US Navy. Two new Ford Aircraft Carrier building Projects in Canada were put on hold two years ago due to Budget Priorities. Risk is always high at front end of Systems Transition until new Systems Processes stabilize. By 2030, we may get to a new Normal based on length of Commercial Commodity Contract Settlement expiration and Renewal Dates now being restructured from Globalism to Multi Polarity.
@@TacticalMayo I disagree. It's much like a Divorce. Incompatible People going their own Way before killing each other, People minding their own business have little to fight over. BRICS Nations can run independent of Globalism without asking for permission. It's happening now. Part of Great Simplification is disintegration and Restructure of Global, National; Commercial, Political Networks. As this process evolves, there will be less to fight over between Rivals such as East and West because Resources will be self contained within respective Networks. Transition Time is most risky because many Powerful Institutions and People will lose a great deal of Power and influence Globally as Globalism fractures into Multi Polarity. We shall see. There is good reason to understand a significant reduction in Nuclear Exchange Risk as deglobalization Process comes to Conclusion.
The US acted compassionately after it dropped their bombs (they knew it would take more than one,,and it did) on Imperial Japan, not raping the country's resources after the war or exterminating the people (two common mindsets in the world at the time). As for Putin, he rattles the nuclear saber because he has them to rattle, and he would be seen as remiss by other Russians not to use their threat to terrorize the West and make them back off (cower)...
Neither claims are correct. Your view on what Putin would do is shaped by US propaganda - not reality, and US dropped the bomb on Japan _even_ when it wasn't necessary at all (Japan was finished at the time), but US did it anyway. ALL the carnage, death and suffering was unnecessary.. You are on the wrong side of history..
- The Japanese offered surrender 6 times - all rejected by the U.S. - The Japanese were, like every society in the world, slated for cultural annihilation by the U.S. This plan goes back to James G. Blaine in the 1880s. - Ethnic extermination of Germans by the U.S. after WWII was the explicit policy of the Morgenthau Plan before it was replaced by the Marshall Plan and its explicit policy of sexual degradation of Germans.
You are part of this elaborate problem my friend. Lifting up your own country and failing to see its massive faults will being hypercritical of others who you deem the evil enemy as that is what the media has told you to do so. I don't get your logic how not exterminating or stealing resources justifies the use of 2 nuclear weapons to use on a country that was already in the process of surrendering. The US is the only country in history to have used these weapons on another nation and like Mr Watson says the onlys who have no first use policy.
They offered to surrender twice, including one proposal in which the Emperor resigned. And the US still nuked them. And let them keep the emperor. So it was all pointless.
Doktor Strangelove was not evil, he was completely rational and only advicing, i mean in the end repopulating earth he propably just snapped and the arm thing is the "NASA" Syndrom.
Chuck Watson is not being intellectually honest. A quick review of the "List of Weapons of Mass Destruction Treaties" on wikipedia reveals numerous treaties signed AND ratified by the US up through 2011. There are also a number that have expired or were replaced by subsequent agreements prior to ratification and only a few exceptions where the US has withdrawn or not ratified. Since those exceptions are notably the ABM Treaty (banning any anti-ballistic missile technology) and the CTBT (banning all nuclear testing), I can only assume Watson rejects the use of technology like Israel's Iron Dome and simply opposes nuclear weapons in general. It is also convenient that Watson fails to mention certain treaties which Russia has withdrawn from or "suspended its participation in" such as the New Start treaty, making the US to sound like the pariah.
Glasstone is a classic, comprehensive reference and is on my bookshelf of course. You're forgetting the impact even a limited nuclear exchange would have on supply chains, communications, governance, all the complex interconnections that make modern civilization possible. Destroy all life on Earth? Of course not. Kill all humans? Of course not (not by the nukes themselves - the collapsing supply chains and starvation are another issue). Reduce the vast majority of Americans to subsistence, survival living? Yeah, that is very likely. So, yes, civilization as we know it would end.
We already have two-headed babies from depleted uranium and some cities in Iraq have 15% deformity rate of babies. Nuclear radiation is a routine emission from nuclear power plants while uranium miners have high levels of radiation in their urine - with their lives cut short also. The genetic mutations are still going on in Chernobyl despite people thinking Mother Nature has reclaimed it so fast. The nuclear power plants are aging and increasingly dangerous due to fuel rods cracking. See Nukewatch in Wisconsin for details - John LaForge just got out of prison in Germany for his civil disobedience against US nukes in Germany. I got arrested with John LaForge also at Project ELF - a first strike communications system to the nuke subs deep down.
As an Archaeologist: modern human fossil fuel industry mass urban capitalism is not capable of withstanding a nuclear war for many many reasons. Most humans live in huge cities and towns. Agriculture is 99% not subsistence based on small farms with local resources and need fuel, inputs of chemicals, credit and delicate supply chains . Most humans do not have food and water supplies on hand . The fast breakdown of the whole supply chains into cities and towns will collapse in days . Most humans don’t not have knowledge and tools to grow and store food at scale . In the old days there were lots of rural peasants with gardens and small flocks of live stock , both cows, goats , chickens but draft animals , horses, mules , donkeys and oxen. If the cities go down, there were most of the population in the countryside. It is now just in time delivery, money is God capitalism with cities being feed lots for most humans . The present system is too fragile to take a hard blow.
While I think Chuck Watson makes some good points and presents some good information, some of the things he says are misleading and some of the things are just wrong. To date, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban of 1996 has been signed by 187 countries and 177 countries have ratified it. At the time of the treaty, there were only 5 recognized countries that had nuclear weapons (U.S., Great Britain, France, Russia, and China). China never ratified the treaty either. So not all the other nuclear powers "did". India, which was on the verge of developing their own nuclear weapons and now has them, still has never signed the treaty and they originally voted against it! Chuck makes it sound like the U.S. was the lone holdout. Israel signed but never ratified the treaty either. Most of the countries that did ratify the treaty don't have nuclear weapons and have no plans to develop them. Sri Lanka only ratified the treaty 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳. Makes you wonder what took them so long. Oh, and the treaty isn't in force (i.e. "law") until all 44 countries listed in Annex 2 of the treaty ratify it. So any country that has abided by the treaty thus far has done so of their own volition anyway.
