❤️ Solving The Money Problem , 👋 Sure is a great presentation! Good to see you here, Steven. ...I’ve been wanting to ask... if at some point, you would possibly be interested to cover some of Clayton Christensen’s theories about disruption, on your channel. I suspect you’re familiar with Professor Clayton Christensen’s work. One of his insights has to do with the competitive dynamics that happen under disruption. I thought that you could make an awesome video that covers this specific competitive dynamic or perhaps you could talk broadly about the theories that were put forth by the Harvard Business School professor: 🔥 Disruptive Innovation 📺 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-rpkoCZ4vBSI.html (1 hour video) ⬆️ Standing at 6’8”, Clayton Christensen was the gentle giant of disruption. (Sadly, he died January 23, 2020) ...One of his great insights explains why it is the case that the incumbent managers (like the ones at the established automakers) act and execute on rational basis (with profits in mind) - yet, even with all the advantages - incumbents still fail to keep the disruptors at bay. Steven, thank you so much for your extremely valuable time. I look forward to seeing you again, in your next video.
Steven - Is that reaction video coming soon? More people need to understand the significance of this tech convergence. People are totally in denial that what Tony says could happen. Maybe start out by saying what if Tony is right? Could he be right?
Imagine, the last mile power transmission cost savings with no transmission lines for millions of miles. Saves cost and lots of land too. Great work. Kudos
It’s been a year since I bought any fossil fuels, switching to an EV sandpit some solar on the roof..better life,, cheaper, not wasting it on polluting fuel any more. Another great presentation from Tony Seba.
@tzar 1917 Did you come to that conclusion because I left a link to the PDF he mentioned? You immediately went there instead of assuming I was just being a helpful netizien. That says more about you than me.
@tzar 1917 Dear Idiot, I am a grown ass male living in the mid-west. Did you even check my account page? Because this account was created on Mar 2, 2011. Did your evil conspirators also give me a time machine?
@@MarkGast I've been accused many times of using a false name and even be a computer generating comments. The reality is there are many paid for trolls out there but pretty much all anti-green ones.
Mr. Seba have been saying the same thing for the past 6 years(with minor tweaks). With each passing year, it materializes more and more, and seeing it happen over time is awesome.
As a transportation engineer for 50 years this is the best analysis I have seen. It is easy for people to dismiss the conclusions. But hard/impossible for people to disprove. Is there any other company that is prepared to implement this disruption as quickly and completely as Tesla? I don’t think so.
I disagee, as soon as the market shifts, I believe the big automakers are prepared and will act to quickly deploy their EV force that has been developed over thirty years. At this time, automakers are being required to deploy fuel burning engines to support the oil industry political force rather that the clean quiet products the market desires. This shut down proves how clean and quiet our neighborhoods can be! Go Tesla, their benchmark is totally stretching our vision!
I agree with the sentiment that the other big automakers will try to overtake Tesla. I do however believe that the impending change in the value chain to where Uber and others will be at the top means that each auto manufacturer will need to create their own version of Uber or partner with an Uber. The number of new cars will go down but the total $/mile spent will go up. Whoever is not prepared for this will be a goner.
MARILYNANDERSON88 Mmmmm. If you believe that the big auto makers are prepared to quickly deploy their EVs, I suggest you do more research into battery availability and software needed to perform the thermal management needed for long range, quick charging and long battery life. The big automakers have barely scratched the surface. VW CEO has admitted this in interviews and hopes to someday catch up with Tesla. The other big automakers are in a worse position.
And what about the previous week? Or this week now? Cherry picking weeks where there was unusual high wind or solar doesn't convince any intelligent person that we should be focusing on renewables instead of nuclear.
@@hrthrhs The UK has not generated any power from coal-fired utilities for nearly 3 weeks. (Irrespective of why). In 2010, the UK was generating around 52% of power from coal. By mid 2019 this had dropped to 3%. Currently, it's now around 1.5%. Hinckley Point 2 (currently under construction) was estimated to cost £9bn when first mooted over a decade ago. When the project hit £22bn in October last year, the contractors pleaded to have another £2bn added to that. This crassly stupid project is unlikely to be ready for another five years, and will probably cost the British taxpayer north of £30bn - and it has yet to put a single electron into the grid. Nuclear has had its day. Solar and wind (plus battery storage) are already vastly cheaper (and increasingly so). My company is a supplier to Siemens and we supply certain items for their wind turbines. Right now, plans are underway to construct 12 new off-shore farms that (when built) will generate more power than Hinckley Point 2, and at around TEN PERCENT of the cost. For an idea on how battery storage complements the grid, and efficiency, look up the Hornsdale Project in South Australia - and watch Tony Seba's talk celebrating 2020 Earth Day again. Then... by all means come back and amuse us with your ignorance.
I read "clean disruption" a few years ago. It opened my eyes and helped me to understand this world a bit better. Thank you so much for sharing your insights!
WOW what a sparkling festival week with family, pets & all the wishes & blessings of friends......... Beautiful Times!!! Ever GRATEFUL & THANKFUL to Hanuman & all Gods. Indebted for life for all the blessings!!!! Let's all share & care & work towards healing mother earth!!! *"Every time you spend money, you're casting a vote to the kind of world you want"* THINK-SPEND-CARE-MATTER. These words really got me...... It's easy to think that your small everyday choices like what you buy don't matter. But they do. Let's think about leather as an example. You might think that it doesn't matter that you bought your new leather boots, since you can't save that animal who's skin is already taken. Think again. Every time you are buying leather products, you are sending a message to the companies to keep producing them. So yes, your actions do matter a lot. Shift to Electric mobility!!! www.evoletindia.com.
Oh wow, I was just rewatching one of your talks yesterday bcuz the oil price drops to negative and was wondering what your thoughts about it. This video couldn’t have been more on the right timing
Dude? Where have you been all my life?! I've been preparing for these changes since 2014. I scour the internet looking for emerging technology news. Here you have been all this time doing the work for me. Um, yeah I subscribed.
Hello Tony Ive watch your talk 4 times online so eye opening. The FORD MOTOR CO. Picture is an interesting one, just when FORD posted a Q1 Net Income loss of $(2.0)b and forcasting a Q2 EBIT LOSS of >$(5.0) and axing their transition to EV plans in half.
Dear Tony, I have read your book and seen an earlier presentation already: great stuff! Now with the updated "realities" as of today it's even more impressive and will be even more tangible for some doubters, thank you!
"EVOLET" The Future Is Electric.!!! "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come". Responsibility is huge on OEMs. The way fwd for OEMs is multiple partnerships to localise, seeking to ensure that EVs become mainstream & affordable. Rissala welcomes the idea of working with partners on electric vehicle technology. Rissala strongly believes that OEMs need to come together to pool recourses & create a much better eco system for EVs in India. Its sensible to collaborate & co-create solutions to realise the eco dream. We need to be the game changers now that we are leading this fantastic change. Its effects are going to be un-imanagable for the country, its people & the world with every seventh human being on this planet being an Indian. Advantages to the country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, & limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions & process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr. or 30,000 Crore per day from imports. OEMs have to work closely with specialised technology companies & power train technologies need to come from tech providers. Its a win - win for all. From ten Lacs (one million) barrels of oil use daily presently, your decision to shift to Electric mobility, its guaranteed to reduce to one Lac (100,000) barrels daily by 2025 & further to 10,000 barrels by 2030. Earth's healing has started. Mother Earth is Smiling!!! Thanks to the human spirit!!! Thanks to Indians shifting to Electric mobility. Three Cheers!!!! "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." We have to be thankful to gods for being in these times & situation where such huge changes are warranted & in our hands as OEMs & with the government's extraordinary positive push in terms of policies, subsidies & support in all ways possible. "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse. www.evoletindia.com
After Vietnam, built total electric home. Retired 75, Feb 2009 installed 12k grid tie solar on property. Ordered second Tesla Tri-motor Cybertruck. No electric Bill, last 11 years, Charge RWD FSD Model 3 on generation alone.
I didn't see wind power mentioned. It is also growing exponentially and costs lowering like solar as tech improves and size increases. It can also run at night.
"it's gonna happen despite governments, not because of governments, for purely economic reasons". This night hurt Trump a lot, he lost the coal battle and now pumps 500B dollar into oil, yes you read that right, not million, but Billion! That's more money then the entire world combined has ever pumped in reneweble energy in any year in history.
Glad that you are OK during this pandemic Tony, I’ve been telling Gasoline Car owners to trade in their Vehicles now while they are worth something. I keep telling them that if the Gas Stations go under then their vehicles become worthless. So, I keep telling them to trade in their vehicles now and buy an EV! From the last time we spoke I have put together an 8 page PDF that teaches people about EVs. You can download it from EVPDF dot com. Thanks!
That's pretty funny! You're telling Gasoline Vehicle owners to trade in their cars now?, HAHA - What about Diesel? - It's kinda true I think, if Gasoline cannot be found then Gas cars will be worthless! HAHA that would be so much fun! Me & My wife both have Tesla's :)
mikee368 I’m from the United States and here we call Gasoline or Petrol, Gas. Which confuses people from other nations. Other nations call natural gas just Gas. But, that not how it is in the USA. Gasoline/Petrol is called Gas and that’s why I call it Gasoline. If I am explicitly speaking to UK people I’ll call it Petrol. If I am talking to people from Italy I will call it #Benzina
@@NAY2GAS hahaha. Thx now I am ever more confused and better understanding at the same time! XD Always thought petrol was US aswell amd gasoline was diesel. And gas was the summation of liquid fuels haha. Yhea here we call gasoline benzine, diesel is well, diesel xD and gas is LPG, liquified petroleum gas iirc.
I follow you since 2014 and while much of this just repeats the right points you made I still enjoy your analysis. I also made pretty much money following your ideas and invested in disrupting companies. I hope the Covid19 pandemic after it caused the destruction of some companies (especially those who already struggled in 2019) it will also help new tech and ideas and create big opportunities. I was too late to see the importance of ZOOM. If I had invested in their company I would now have made 200% profit in 2 months just because so many need their teleconferencing software. I hope more people follow your advice and check out all new companies with disruptive potential.
I watch one of your presentations every year at least. It helps me focus on the future, versus the past. I subscribe to an investment daily newsletter and the writer simply cannot fathom how the oil industry will head into decline. The demand destruction in March of 2020 was transitory of course, and will reverse partially with the pandemic winding down later this summer. But the trend will continue. The curve showing coal is really informative. Coal demand itself did not drop 99 percent in that time frame, but the value of investments did, because the margins of a business can profoundly affect valuation. That, too, will happen in the oil industry. Thank dog we got a president in the US now who is looking towards the future instead of doubling down on the past.
Lots to ponder. It reminds me of the quote from Rudiger Dornbusch - “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”
I went to Hong Kong from Japan in 1995, lots of people were using pagers "pocket bells". When I came back to Japan 18 months later EVERYONE had a mobile phone.
@@timcountis9368 Within two to three years an Electric car will have reached price parity with an ICE car but are much cheaper to run. Within five years they will be both cheaper to buy and much cheaper to run. Oil companies have nowhere to go except into liquidation.
@@timcountis9368 Doesn't matter what Trump does if it's cheaper to build solar, if it's cheaper to go electric. It's like giving money to horse buggy builders in 1919 and allow them to not clean the road from horse manure. It wouldn't have stopped the success of the superior tech. At best slowing it down on a short term time scale.
@@timcountis9368 They can't hold back efficient vehicles that are cheaper to make, sell, operate and maintain. And ticket price parity is literally a couple of years away. Not from legacy companies, of course. They'll hold the price up of their EVs for as long as they can, so that they can keep selling their FFVs. Indeed, until they go bankrupt.
I find this interesting because it actually is a parallel to the story I am currently reading out loud (although I like your production quality better than mine, so hats off to you, Tony.). EDGES takes place in the year 2030 after "something happened" where the thriving cities work on clean energy and the outlaws use the discarded cars which run on oil. In the EDGES world of Courtly City, horses actually are a mode of transportation by the Earth Farmers, a small community which live on the outskirts of the very modern city. Story takes place in the decade of 2030....it is fiction, of course, but your facts support the story-line.
Power Electronics Engineers deserve the credit for making batteries' load following capabilities superior to gas turbines and able to be located on site to immediately serve the load! Look at the air quality savings! Fantastic job.
19:29- National average energy cost is $0.12 or 12 cents per kwh! That's great for most people! In Southern California, the baseline rate for Orange County is about 23 cents/kwh, and if you go over that modest allowance, it jumps to 30 cents/kwh. They charge less after 8pm, so I schedule charging my Model X after 8 pm.
The presentation is very valuable. It is indeed disruptive. The picture of the world is changing. 10 years for a disruption. Tesla is 7 years in (I believe). Their vehicles are durable and solve many problems.
Thank you so much for all the valuable information you are giving us. I’m 18 and 1/3 of my net worth is Tesla stock. I feel like by 2030 I’ll be glad of the investment decisions I made this year.
Roger Starkey I also own other stocks. Tesla is 60% of my portfolio. I’m using cash to buy one more share before ER and if it drops after ER I’ll sell other stocks to buy more Tesla
Read the RethinkX report about the food disruption. There may be some food companies that end up like Tesla. Perhaps Beyond Meat is one of those companies.
when are you going to bring out a video on Food and Agriculture disruptions? Waiting for it. Hope you put some of the major companies names too who pioneers this.
Coal is finished, unless no new mass uses are invented. Oil is in the slow down phase in developed places, but we see a little bit of an uptick in the developing nations. It will be a bumpy ride to the end for the oil industry. A bad industry to be on. Better bet on all things electrical !
yup weve already passed peak oil and coal . theyre on a reverse s curve. It looks like theyre falling slowly now but they will start to completely collapse with the next few years .
OK, make steel without coal. Happy trying. Our entire civilization, not just energy, also materials, food, clothing, everything is hydrocarbon based. And electrical? Faulty, ages badly, and low energy density.
What I love about Tony Seba's analytical work is that he doesn't have hunches or make estimates. Historical data shows him the way and allows him to project forward with uncanny accuracy. Sure, he's occasionally 6 months to a year out in his projections. But those are on the side of caution. When other analysts [often working for legacy companies] are calling him a madman for even daring to project as he has. Yet he has been right all along, upto now.
33:14 TFlops is Billion Floating point operations per second. TOps is Billon operations per second, it is two different things. It takes several operations to perform one floating point operation.
50:40 Dubai 2109, you mean 2019 ;). Amazing numbers, all of them! I'm simply waiting for the future to happen, not sure if that's a positive or negative thing haha.
Incredible analysis! Thank you @Tony Seba! People are getting caught flat footed and this pandemic is accelerating the disruption cure. Is there any way to access the side deck you used in this presentation?
Houston, Texas our commercial cost of transmission & demand is $.06 to $.08 per kWh. Cost of energy is only $.06; so our combined cost is $.12 per kWh in Houston. Can't wait to switch to rooftop solar. We have a 15,000 SF warehouse; so panels can not come fast enough.
Greatly appreciate your work! How about the northern countries, how are they going to produce enough energy, especially during winters, when they don't have enough sun? Are they going to stock up in the summer?
As we enter the post covid world, $66 per bbl oil has returned. Long term I agree with the premise that oil, coal and nuclear assets will become stranded. Lot of pent up demand in the economy. A lot of road trips being planned with the $1400 per person stimulus.
"Seba's Law" = Li-iOn Batteries curve at 15:00 mins in. Thumbs up all to approve. Please pin this to the top too. Anyway, I formally declare that the "Li-iOn Batteries" cost curve at around 15:00 be called "Seba's Law." I posted this proclamation just days after Tony's "Future of Transportation" video in January, but I am betting Tony is being too modest. For added measure, I even said the same on my RU-vid videos so you can't hide Tony lol. So, let's all thumbs-up this comment to show Tony he deserves the credit for his hard work and being with other greats like Moore and Kryder (refer to his Transportation video from Jan 24, 2020 at around 7:10 where he compares the other "laws.") Meanwhile, since the lithium in the Li-iOn batteries is a low percentage and could someday be replaced by something different, maybe "Seba's Law" should = "Battery Technologies cost curve" or something similar. I'm going to keep reposting this until we give Tony the credit he deserves. Please help all.
Sir ! I am BIG fan of yours ! Request you to please make of a video of your latest report on food and agriculture as well ... To be honest, wanna pass it on to some lazy buggers, who hate reading ... lol
Amazing. This really aligns with Tesla and the musks businesses. Hopefully our government policy supports these paradigm shifts. Ironically, China seems to get this and is moving quickly on many fronts. This is the next industrial revolution. I would love to see Seba and Carlota Perez, Jeremy Rifkin at a round table !
Tony Seba cracks me up. The man has been giving the exact same talk for a decade, and the only change that has happened is having more real world data to compare to. And why change? his predictions are pretty much right on. He might be off by 6-18 months on various things, and not always in the same direction, there are unknowns, autonomy may take longer than expected, the regulation certainly will take longer, but battery costs have dropped faster. I don't think it is bad that regulation will delay autonomy by a bit, we should raise our standards, and we should be using that time to prepare for it, planning for autonomous charging and parking (yes they will need parking, but it can be tucked away in more efficient and convenient places), planning for what to do when autonomy fails, either on an individual car or on a whole network. If the cars aren't ready for a snowstorm and they all stop working at once, we have a problem.
The ultra high mileage EVs will spawn a whole new industry to improve and upgrade the exterior, interior and running gear of existing cars. The body shells, motors and batteries will continue but everything else can be reconditioned to like new. They will cost a fraction of brand new. It all depends on batteries at a low enough cost and of course the factories to make them in large enough numbers. Amazon announced it's vans from Rivian at least 12 months ago. We will know by 2022 if the vans ever happen. The question is why does it take so long to make some tin boxes on wheels.
I think a winning combination would be solar on the roof with battery storage and the home owner is off the electricity grid but stays on the gas grid and uses gas to generate electricity, air heat and hot water with a gas powered turbine when needed especially in winter. Alternatively a micro-grid for a small neighbourhood could work.
I'm starting to think TSLA stock might be pretty cheap at this time, he said only partially joking. Wonderful talk as usual, still stunning content! In many ways this is still secret knowledge ... but those who've seen this video are changing the world for the better in their own smaller ways as result of this information, maybe even subconsciously changing the world for the better.
what I heard, "smart people in their smart organizations failing to grasp" the new technology in plain sight that will disrupt and probably destroy their market share their profit their business. If you're inside one of these organizations you might realize that they're not listening, not yet. For every decade they delay and ignore, well that's kinda their own fault.
Hello Tony, enjoyed your presentation on this topic very interesting. Can you please address how all this demand on the electrical grid will be met? Will electricity prices surge? Why is China having rolling blackout issues currently & importing large amounts of coal. Thanks.
Hello Tony, Lovey videos and projection. Very insightful. I am working on Hydrogen Fuel cell related power electronics. I have had solar since 2012. Would also use battery back up but cost is too high.You must agree no one can predict impact of Trump, Iran, Covid-19, Oil-price drop/hike? You have said people now UBER because it is cheaper than normal taxis. But because they are cheaper people use them more and use buses/trains less leading to more road congestion. Same applies to self driving cars they have to go and park somewhere when not in use or being cleaned. And again increased road congestion because they will be cheaper than buses/trains compounding the problem? EV Trucks/Semis' will kill rail freight? EVs are safer but autonomous ones need to be clean and lot of people will abuse them. People still need lots and lots of cars during peak hours hence the cars need to be parked during off peak hours and hence car parks still needed? Agreed that peak hours in future will change compared to today. Subscription model, I see a problem as in we become beholden to the pricing hikes i.e. Tesla forces you to buy an up-grade of software and could disable functions till you buy an upgrade or void your insurance by saying it is unsafe? Fewer cars in future but same or more journeys have peak hour premium so may cost same as owning ICE car? If more lives are saved more cost for NHS in UK and more jobs are needed? Don't agree with you about parking as UBERS & Weymo will need to park when not in use? Regards
You know... I just heard you say in reference to what others say... not to worry, it'll take 20 years before it becomes adopted. That sounded exactly like "It'll take 20 years for the mainstream to adopt it." Which if you think about billionaire investors, some invest way early. "Don't worry, it won't reach proper valuation for 20 years." But if you were to invest into them while they are being verbally denounced... You might actually pull some 100x returns by the time they institutions finally declare their support for the company. The impact this type of transition can have is always way beyond expectations. That said, you find a company that hits all the proper criteria, it's easy to believe that the most bullish price outlook is still, undervalued.
Tony one thing I think you should build into your model is the cost of EVs. I saw you showed it in one of your slides, but the Chinese are driving down the price of EVs way faster than the incumbent companies. When you can buy a decent EV for 10-15K USD, this will continue to drive demand for personal transport. The Chinese are already making sub $10K USD vehicles (today July 2021).
At 26:34 "200-mile EV..home for ~2 days" "EVs could store 71% of Canada's electricity demand". I need a 760-mile EV to heat my home for ~2 average days for November 1st-April 15th stud, I need a 1,140-mile EV to heat my home for ~2 average days for January. Have you ever visited Canada ?
I'm not convinced that TaaS will work for campervans. They are very expensive and very rarely used, so it should do, but they are also highly personalised. It's currently much cheaper to keep the one I've got than rent one. Eagerly awaiting a 400 mile Rivian van to convert, because all the current vans do no more than 100 miles, which is painful for a camper. Except I'm in the UK, so who knows how long it'll be before I can get one.
Some of the parking space will be needed for pick up and drop off zones. Also some people will want to put their shopping into an AV and have it wait for them while they do more shopping. I know trains aren't a big thing in the USA but in places where they have suburban train stations they have car parks, full of cars for city commuters. They will need just about all the car park for pick up zones especially when people pour out of a rush hour train. These train station car parks are full of cars, sometimes from drivers mainly women who don't want to walk home even a short distance in the dark, even in places with low crime rates. Having AVs shuttle to and from the train stations delivering passengers is a great opportunity.
Tony Seba has been astounding in his predictions about costs and adoption rates of solar power, batteries and EVs. It would be great to see some more details though of why Tony expects robotaxis and TAAS to start taking over in 2020 when there isn't a vehicle in the world yet that can safely drive autonomously except in extremely controlled conditions? Even if semi-reliable Level 3-4 autonomy existed today, won't it take a few years to prove it's safe and get regulatory approval to use it?
Mr. Seba, Have you considered speaking with Joe Rogan, on his podcast? This would be a great platform that would give millions exposure to your idea and give you the time to clearly talk through all the main points.
Moltex Energy Ltd is a UK company building a nuclear Peaker Plant at New Bruswick in Canada. They have a molten salt reactor feeding high temperature heat into a thermal store which raises steam for standard turbo generators. The heat stores use a separate molten salt circuit and are not needed for emergency cooling. Therefore they are unaffected by the nuclear regulated areas. These are the low cost high efficiency reheat steam turbines as used in coal fired plants. The reactor runs continuously at full load while the turbines ramp up and down during the daily cycle. The stored energy allows max power output to be far above the max available from the reactor. The plant going up in New Brunswick will be fueled with high level radioactive waste previously removed form an older nuke plant on the same site. Fuel costs are negative because Moltex are being paid to take it away. That used fuel still has 97% of its fissionable energy remaining. Moltex will use that remaining energy and the new waste has a 30 year half life compared to 30,000 years for the old fuel rods. It's happening. The engineering is done and proven. The delays are now entirely regulatory. They expect to be on load by 2028 = very quick by commercial nuclear standards.
You are right but OPEC has removed more than 5 bpd, which is huge. The question is how long OPEC will be able to manipulate the market? Not too long. When demand starts declining fast, OPEC will fall apart.
