Legendary presentation. Tony has consistency been RIGHT (and often, ALONE) while others ridiculed him. Please keep banging the drum, people DO NOT understand how fast, violent and seismic these disruptions will be.
I liked the “a caterpillar with wings isn’t a butterfly” analogy. Definitely pointed towards legacy automakers not being able to transition to Evs as easily as they think they may.
Agree I was going to take notes on this updated info but that’s the only thing I came out with 😂. Caterpillars can’t be butterflies just by strapping wings onto it.
And non-dispatchable, variable, unpredictable renewable energy is not like anything that people are willing to rely on, and pay more for. It's like switching from the horse to the buffalo.
@@RandyTWester People already are paying for it. The combined system of solar, wind, and batteries eliminate variation and unpredictability. Fossil fuels depend on a global market place for fuels. When you can fully self generate using your own equipment you insulate yourself from global fuel markets.
I have been following Tony for almost 8 years already. He is a visionary person and predicting the future with innovation in existing technologies, not with sci-fi types. We need leaders like him in every part of society, not only in technology.
Thank you Tony Seba. When I first saw your video 2017 I started to invest into Tesla, green electrical power and cooper mines for electrification. I have done well because you shared your knowledge. Thank you again.
Not really, it's true when you think about it. Roads, parking lots, drive ways, and real estate is all highly influenced by personal car ownership. That will change with autonomous electric cars.
Love the caterpillar-to-butterfly analogy. This is an accurate example, of a good portion, of the mindset of legacy automotive companies around the world. Petroleum has been their 'crack' cocaine for so long, the detoxification process may very well kill most of them. I think this is why many have a high aversion to recognizing the clear benefits of a BEV (battery electric vehicle) over an ICE (internal combustion engine) counterpart. Clearly, Tony is demonstrating that knowledge IS power and that you should be armed with it to navigate the tumultuous periods ahead.
The cost S-curve is being led by Tesla, who is well ahead of Tony's prediction and essentially pushing all other BEVs along the curve. And while this is happening, Tesla and other BEV manufacturers, are collapsing demand for legacy ICE and their suppliers. I'd imagine that Tony will talk about this in part #2 which I'm very much looking forward to.
You are totally right, the majority of mainstream news and organisations seem to have no concepts of compound & exponential growth. It's such a sinple concept, yet so many are struggling with it.
Its good to see that you are around. Currently mainly Europe is in big trouble because of missing energy. Well oil and gas are also used as components for plastic, pharmacy, fertilizers etc. Further, and especially the Germans seem really stupid in switching off existing and operational nuclear power plants.
The usual brilliant presentation from Tony Seba. If it appears to be one repeated message but with extra details each time it's because the message is so true. Can't wait for Part 2. 👍
He also recognized that history repeats itself. Fords Project Highland in 1913 was a mindblowing factory with a brand new production platform, that made the price of a car go from 800$ to 240$.Next year 200 other carmakers went bankrupt. No Wonder, Elon have used the same codename in his future plans. Of course not, for a particular refreshed 6 year old model3, as claimed by Reuters, but for the new mindblowing generation 3 platform. 😎
None big Automobile industry CEOs will understand (with the exception of Herbert Diess) this huge disruption change in their working day. Must be broadcasted to all our teenagers secondary schools to understand the new World they will live in.
Truly brilliant presentation Tony! My investments in innovation is heavily based on your research. Technically, I owe a part of my financial success to your research! Thank you🙏
Historically important and perceptive and valuable thinking and presentation, especially for the CEOs of all major corporations like IBM which is following in the steps of GE
Thanks Tony for this presentation, wish I had read your book in 2014. Fantastic predictions re. the lithium battery price fall over time, and the S curve adoption rates for disruptive new technology.
Tony gives the impression that Entrepreneurs see the disruption coming and are able to take advantage of their insight, but I think it is more like that the risk takers are constantly trying to upset the applecart, and they generally fail until the conditions are right for them to succeed, and then some of the do. There were plenty of people trying to make electric cars for a century, and when conditions were favorable they succeeded and when the conditions were not right they failed and when the conditions were right again they succeeded again. It is kind of like thinking the winner of a lottery has some kind of special insight that allowed them to win, but that ignores all the other folks who tried to win and failed.
Thank You Tony Seba! Your work is extraordinarily important, critical and timely! I fear for the companies and the people who do not study, internalize and put into rapid your action, your body of work.
If cost curves are like gravity, then why is RTX 4080 16 GB $1200+ while GTX 1080 8 GB was $600 in 2016? And why is Tesla Model 3 more expensive today than it was 3 years ago? I also saw PVs and batteries get more expensive this year compared to last year where I live.
You're forgetting about one of the strongest factors to influence price, but necessarily value. One must take into consideration the number of dollars in circulation when comparing a point in time to another. In this case, the number of dollars in circulation today dwarfs that of the number of dollars in 2016.
Everyone who wants to invest in growth stock's needs to listen to tony Seba before doing so. He has a great library of useful uploads which bring the receipts and show his predictions in the past actually happening as he said it would.
The current Crisis Era was described in book "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe. Tony is describing the details of exactly how. Strauss and Howe wrote in early 1990s their book. Tony has highlighted S-curves, disruption, specific technology converging, and the consequences.
Amazing presentation! Quote about caterpillar and butterfly was one of the best that I heard in a long time! Thank you for sharing this wealth of knowledge!
This is exactly what the auto industry is attempting, Toyota is trying to use the same assembly line to produce an ice car, then an hybrid and then a BEV just changes some parts. They literally said the same line will produce all the vehicles on different days
Thank you for sharing, great message - Love the term "phase changing disruptions" Tony, I would be fascinated in your explanation of the S-Curve predictability in the light of globalisation
Dont make us wait so long for the next one Tony. I'm generally a very skeptical, traditional (see incumbent) type of guy and thinker, but I can't help but pound the Seba Kool-Aid
Nothing wrong with being skeptical. It's what saves us from wasting billions of dollars on technology That's not ready yet. At the same time I think Tony is absolutely correct about the changes coming. The math is there.
@@mrspeigle1 I drank the koolaid years ago. We are working on disruptive food systems out of Africa and Seba's principles are bang on. The current dysfunctional and predatory model is fast succumbing to disruption. The convergence of disrupted long supply chains, rising cost of fossil fuels and fertilizers as well as the disenfranchisement of post colonial French policy is fast changing Agriculture our of French speaking Africa. The Europeans have a very shocking and disruptive rude awakening just a short "s' curve away.. I can't wait.
Mature companies - especially publicly traded ones get trapped by their quarterly earnings targets. Everything is incremental. Set a modest growth goal, meet it and watch your stock options grow in value! No focus on self disruption.
This presentation will be lost on BMW executives - and some of their car driving fans. If in doubt why not seek out some Nokia, Kodak, or Blockbuster executives and ask why their companies have disappeared.
$151 per kilowatt-hour According to BloombergNEF, the average lithium-ion battery costs $151 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the average battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) battery costs $138 per kWh. In 2021 the average per kWh cost was $141.Feb 24, 2023
The outstanding characteristics of Tony Seb's analysis is the Observable form-fitting S curves of innovation and Wright's Law overlay on the economies of scaling technical changes. The proof is in the putting of business development. So when he says a 10X improvement will inevitability replace old tech, why is that not recognized to apply to measurable Energy Thermodynamics of Power Generation potential in suppressed Nuclear Reactor Designs. (Rhetorical)
Where am I blind? This makes me think there may be a lot even in my own small life might be missing the vision to see disruption and collapse. #landscaping
The adoption of cars with supporting infrastructure happened without federal subsidies? The Inflation Induction Act and other outrageous Federal help is not necessary. . US interest payments on debt is now at %580 bil/yr approaching the expenditure on defense.
And just to proof he really did make the graph of around 5:30 back in 2014, you can find it back in this vid of 2014: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-8xy1EDY7Ruw.html You can see it around 30:40 exactly the same graph.
Great video, message needs to get out. On the other hand, this is all be said in previous videos. So hope, next parts drops some new info and insights. Keep up the excellent work. Nay sayers might need some insight in the mechanisms of disruption.
Do not forget geopolitics. China is leading in two of the three technologies: energy and transportation. And they certainly participate in the agricultural transformation.
Not too long ago this "expert" wrote, “By 2025, gasoline engine cars will be unable to compete with electric vehicles”. It is now 2024, electric car sales are down and the ICE is still doing great. Not too much of a wise man he is.
So we are becoming isolationists at the individual level. What happens to the humans who are displaced by phase changing technology, restrictions on who is allowed to breed, compulsory euthanasia when you decline to a certain functional level etc etc etc....
I believe the current price of gas right now is a good example of what Tony mentions. Oil companies see their market share dying, so they are trying to get as much profits as possible before the disruption of electric cars destroys the oil industry.
So how do you manufacture and recharge batteries without fossil fuels, not to mention all plastics and pretty much everything in your life is made with oil? Sorry oil is not going away anytime soon.
@@miketoni1012 You are correct, however a good portion of the supply of oil goes towards energy ie. gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. The shift towards electric vehicles will lessen significantly the demand for those oil products, directly to the consumer, then somewhat shift towards electricity generated directly by power companies. depending on how the renewable energy markets ramp up to supply enough power for the increased demand. Products will definitely be made with plastics/oil, it's the energy markets that are going to take a huge hit.
3D Printing, in Multiple Materials, from Simple Powders, to Plastics, to Metals, will change a number of Business Requirements, though! But Elon still wants his Staff, "At Work" to interact, coordinate, share ideas, get hands in, etc!