China’s economic development, international influence, military empowerment, and nationalism have fueled its global rivalry with the United States, increasing the risks of war between the two great powers.
Causes for a Chinese involvement in an armed conflict are numerous: they include Beijing’s ambition to take control of the whole South China Sea, to question Japan’s control of the Senkaku (Diaoyu), to delineate to its advantage its de facto border with India, and to speed up Taiwan’s unification.
Xi Jinping’s China has been inclined to privilege “gray zone tactics” and operations. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and other Chinese security agencies have improved its power projection capabilities and their combat preparedness. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine has illustrated, crossing the war threshold carries numerous predictable and unintended consequences. Moreover, the PLA’s lack of combat experience may convince it to first get engaged in less risky military operations abroad.
For these reasons, China and the US are moving towards a new Cold War rather than a hot war that could rapidly get nuclearized. Q&A moderated by FCC Professional Committee Member William Zheng.
26 авг 2024
