Do you honestly think that anybody that doesn’t already collect modern books is going to go to the Deadpool movie & be so excited about the character after that they’re going to drop $1500 on new mutants 98? That didn’t happen barely during the boom, it’s not gonna happen now.
It’s great that you monitor these indices, Swag! Can we twist your arm into creating some raw sales indices? I know that the grade information is less reliable, but I’d like to know the relative volume of raw to slab sales. What if people were coming to their senses and preferring raws over slabs - your indices would drop while actual sales could be rising.
Super happy i found your Comic Index videos! I had been developing the same idea for awhile but didn't get around to putting it together (prioritizing other content creation). I did work out most of the details of how to do it but now of course there is no need because you did a great job! I do have a few questions about your decision processes: 1) How do you pick the top 100 comics? I assume market price, but do you take the price at a certain grade? When i was thinking about this it was one of the issues i struggled with. I decided you should probably just take the top 100 by value at 9.4 but there are a few that are more difficult to find in high grade and the 9.4 value is skewed more than it is for other comics (think MS5). Also if one comic fades and another surges, will you replace it in your top 100? If so will you do a mathematical correction like they do for the SP500 to keep your index smooth month-to-month? 2) You are using the median grade to determine the representative price (exactly what i figured would be the best way to do it) but why use only the last sale (closing price)? Using only the last sale can introduce a lot of noise and also could introduce bias (some people get paid on the 15th and 30th and could be making those purchases in anticipation of payday). Doesn't GPA have the data for you to use the average price for the month? Probably reduce noise in your charts and more importantly provide a more accurate signal. 3) Economy is fine. Unemployment at 50 year lows, GDP growth is highest it's been in all but the best post-war markets, real wage gains are outpacing inflation, income inequality has decreased, companies are reporting record profits and stock markets are at all time highs. The twos/tens inversion is not actually that reliable of an indicator if you look historically. All it really indicates is that bond traders are betting that rates will go lower from here. Which makes sense, no one is predicting higher rates from here. Layoffs are a natural part of the late cycle and there has been no net job losses--in fact we are still net hiring as the economy continues to grow. I get that you are making the bull/bear case which i agree is useful, but some things are objective truths. You can still make a bear case for comics using the actual state of the things (which you also do, i just think your argument is stronger if you stick with facts to make the bull/bear case). All that said, growth has been on such a tear that it is likely to slow this year and into 2025 and of course we have debt servicing problems going forward as well. Plenty of real reasons to make the bear case without saying we have a poor economy. 4) Completely agree that in the past collectibles as an asset class were highly correlated with crypto. Started with Rolexes as crypto millionaires looked for ways to launder their gains that couldn't be easily traced or taxed and were easy to hide in safe deposit boxes. Moved on to sport and other collectible cards (like MTG) and then to comics. The fact that comics are still in the doldrums and crypto is setting new highs is notable. Either the correlation has broken down, crypto needs to correct, or comics need to climb. My comments are intended as food for thought, not as criticism; i'm already on ready stating this is a great video series you developed and i'm a fan. Looking forward to hearing back from you and let me know if you are interested in a collaboration or co-host for these segments!
Exactly, there are actual financial products to invest in. The extra cash can make comics sell more or less easily though. That's what the index shows - how easily are comic collectors separated from their money.
Great vid and I look forward to these. I use this information a good bit. I believe that we won’t see real movement until May/June time frame. I say that due to the upswing in shows and conventions start to pick up.
Swag there is nothing even close to bad about the economy. Money is moving to other assets and collectables. I'm up in everything. I've been in crypto, and stocks. People are not looking at comics. People who trade crypto move money buying other crypto. Unemployment is still low. S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. TCGs are doing well.
Stocks & unregulated crypto are not the economy. Look at how many people can’t buy a house or car, examine the wages people get that are employed (not the outdated rate) & most are either under employed or not doing nearly as well as they were even five years ago. All decent jobs are going away or overseas and we are turning into a renters’ society, glad that you think that your markets are doing well, but again, just wrap your arms around what a decent economy actually is and looks like.
Idk. Corporate layoffs persist. American CC debt at record high. Wealthy collectors/investors will chase antiques/collectibles in investment grade. Lower grade keys are often pursued by the less affluent collector/investor/speculator who unfortunately is not benefiting (in the near term) from the unbridled enthusiasm in the financial market. My humble opinion.
A lot of this is going to depend on is the age of superhero movies over. We got 3 big films that need to have wins, Dead Pool 3, Venom 3, and Captain America 4. If 2 out of these 3 movies bombs, well don't be surprised, if there is another big plunge in Comic book values in 2025.
I do not think there will be any interest rate cuts at all this year. Still too much uncertainty in the market plus the political chaos with the Presidential election this Fall.
I'm still thinking that during covid the stock market dropped while at the same time the comic market had risen. The people working in stocks saw an opening and were pushing money through the sales of the more expensive comics. They were transferring funds through comics similar to that of stocks. That's why you saw so many sales in the half a million to the low millions.
Then explain how during covid books were being passed around week to week half a million to 2 million dollars. There were even people buying shares in comic books at the time. These were not your average collectors.
Money supply decreased since mid-2021. There’s just not as much money circulating around the economy. Unfortunately, some of that money’s been taken out from the comic book market.
Also forgot to mention that in March a lot of people are already starting to get back their Federal returns. So more money available to use I just got mine this week. Not that I would ever use my returns towards comic books but I'm sure people do. I'm more worried about my retirement returns than anything else. S&P 500 hit a record high in January so that means 10 to 20% gains this year in my pocket
IMO, the reason crypto is pumping is due to the dollar being screwed regardless of what the Fed does. If the Fed keeps rates higher, the economy will slow to a crawl and tax receipts will massively diminish and the Federal debt will explode which will cause the Fed to print like we have never seen before. Think Argentina, Zimbobwe, and Venezuela. If the Fed lowers rates, housing will go nuts, wages will go higher, tax receipts will increase, both our personal debt and the Federal debt will be inflated away and 10-25% inflation will likely become the new norm. IMO, in either scenario, the dollar is doomed and being out of cash is where you want to be. Treasuries are a trap. Housing, Crypto, Silver, Gold, and yes even Collectables is a much more intelligent move.
I think long term people are gonna get burnt by digital assets. Having them deleted, censored without their knowledge or consent. Including being hacked & incripted out of the digital asset. Then realising that a tangible asset will still have value offline and in their possession.
Thanks for the great video! One important thing to note is that Crypto investors will be and have been buying the Marvel Digital NFT comics on the Veve platform, and the DC nft comics on the Candy Platform. Many of these investors start there and move to the physicals afterwards. Id love to see on your channel the official Marvel comics digital nft side of things.
No euphoria until 2025 I bet. Crypto as an example. BTC halving and ETH ETF soon. Then take the gains into other alt coins. Then cash out in 2025 for lambos and funny books. For now, it’s hodl time
I kind of always feel like this is just the same Apple vs. Microsoft dilema/arguement. There can be a better product but if it is marketed poorly or priced out of range, there will be a door for competition left open. Sometimes wide open. In the comic space, it is not up to the fans to keep the comic market afloat. It's up to the supplying companies. I hope they thrive and expand but if those companies don't go into the newly created spaces to gain the attention of the generations coming up, the only fans of the medium are going to be the kids that enjoyed this with their parents. Right now, comic companies are leaving that door wide open for just about anything to attract kids away from comics.
You’re looking at the top 100 & those bronze & copper & modems are still iffy to negative. And that’s the highest end. The other 90%+ are tanking horribly - can’t give that junk away. Think about this - start with ASM 300 and go all the way up. You have 300, 301, 316 (maybe) and then hundreds upon hundreds of worthless books (looking at you too 361 direct) for the most popular character in comics - throw out the handful of variants that people want. That is awful.
Every time you do one of these market updates you spend half the video repeating the same goofy catch phrases and lame jokes. More analysis, less filler.
