Have we forgotten that the ideas behind the one child policy were suggested by western institutions. Club of rome limits to growth, Kissinger & Brzezinski making the case for India under Indira.
Boring and so repetitive..this guy named 12 places for example and did so much bakwaas..all.bakwaas and no point.. LEARN TO DELIVER NEWS FROM PALKI SHARMA
..... Chutiya India had to accept BRI project and after China spending 50 billions dollars, India had to ban Chinese products like Italy did but Chutiya Indian leaders have no brains now.......India lost hundreds of billions dollars with China trade in last decades.........
............. ....India is already next Africa and not threat to USA.... USA will keep playing with billions of Indians minds but USA will never invest in India to make India next World factory because India is not major threat to American imperialism.....China and Vietnam are Communist countries and these nations people are very nationalists and Anti- America or American imperialism so American government is always trying to invest in China and Vietnam to divert these nations peoples minds.....But India has British slavery parliament democracy and not major threat to US imperialism.......wake up British slaves Indians now....
deflation is bad because not above reason. It is because society tend pause their purchase because the item price will reduce in future which in turn reduces demand and and manufacturer further lower the price. This is a downward spiral.
0.3% deflation is still much better than 7% inflation in the United States. For example, Which do you think is more serious ？the 3% drop in food prices in China and the 70% increase in food prices in the US?
@@stunstar4553 deflation is worse, you are thinking of it from a personal perspective. The wider economy gets shafted in a long term deflationary trend, look at Japan. Japan went from one of world's richest countries in late 80s, to below average in OECD.
@@stunstar4553economical deflation. Deflation means less profit for businesses. Because raw material prices are going up that means deflation eats up the profit of businesses. As businesses donot make profit they shutdown and this leads to loss of employment and that is a vicious economic cycle. Inflation on the other hand is opposite which means there is less supply for demand providing room for innovation. It depends also on where inflatory pressure and the state of development. A developing countries like China and India you need inflation at minimum of 2% and maximum of 5%.
@@anmolmonga1933 The average income of China is 3 to 5 times that of India, most products are already cheaper than Indian products, and prices are still decreasing. how do you think Chinese people's living conditions if compare to Indians?
I think real estate’s contribution to India’s growth is much higher than 11%, since most of the registrations happen at much lower price than market value.
Not gonna lie if Modi said the same but in Hindi what Xi said on economic problems, every media house would show it in a diff way😂😂i am no supporter of Modi just stating what i have seen the trend these days.
Excellent insight into Chinese economy 👍 Good job Shekharji and The Print team 🙏 Slowdown of global economy, shrinking export growth, shrinking population, saturated domestic demand... As an impact, one may foresee, 1. Appreciating Yuan (which the Chinese government will try to prevent as in past). 2. Agressive dumping/undercutting to boost exports, even by printing more money to fund incentives. 3. Boost in overseas investments and sovereign interest free or low interest loans. Sounds easy, but all of the above is being overshadowed by unpopular posturing or world view, due to lack of transparency/democracy in China. A lot to learn from, for India!
Most other countries, esp. in Africa and South America, are fighting high inflation. I am not sure how they would be entertaining more inflationary projects like sovereign debt or infrastructure investments from China. This is a time when China could benefit from overseas investment, but unfortunately there won't be takers.
Almost all major Indian garment manufacturers go to China. The relatively cheaper cloth coming from there in large quantities is hurting the Indian industry. Purchasing power is also decreasing rapidly here. All garment units and dyeing mills in Ludhiana have been working below fifty percent of their capacity for quite some time. In the future, China will make every possible effort to export its cheap goods by putting pressure on India. It will be worth seeing whether India will be able to bear the pressure in the election year or not?
Mugal spokesman Cheen ,how there can be a crisis. Mao,Stalin,Lenin,FA angles& howler gandu& our Italian empresses is taking care Beat their band in angrezi
Top class explanation SG. Leveraging has now become imperative for China to clear off debt. Good that we are focusing on China and its economy a lot more now. We Indians need to be aware of them and learn from their mistakes. And Independence Day wishes SG and team 🇮🇳❤
Every country has a different challanges. You can easily spot other people but for your self is hard. Alots of india media talking bad about china youth unemplyomemt but nobody talk about india youth unemplyment which is much worse then china
@@iggy5347 No, it's not worse than China and more importantly, India's existing unemployment is a passing shower, China's is a thunderstorm. Did you event watch the video? China's economy has been in a fall since it raised it ambitions from becoming more than a cheap labor manufacturing hub. India's has a much stronger base of diversified sectors, no over-reliance on Real-estate, a younger demography and most important of all, a democratic society.
I have come to this conclusion judging from past instances of central bank created bubbles. China has been pumping capital into the economy and they have stopped which is causing people to stop their high levels of consumption and go back to their regular purchasing patters. Although usually a central bank does this with low interest rates so if the interest rate is still low this doesn't fully explain it. Maybe the real-estate sector is the key here, since China funds massive infrastructure projects, and real-estate sector in China is really big, is it possible that since China isnt building massive projects anymore that this has caused that bubble to burst? Or the housing bubble might have sarted to bust due to some government policy, the prices are falling according to Nikkei Asia.
China is not a "command economy". It's pretty much a normal capitalist economy that has reached the limits of rapid growth. This happened to the US after WW II and Germany after the reconstruction of its large cities. We had (and are still having) unrest and unhappiness in both countries. China is no different. The only question is how the CCP will deal with the inevitable.
Few things to Notice 1. Dont read too much into it, Its data of just a month. 2. Most of the debt take by CCP is from their own banks controlled by them and ofcourse in the currency which they control. 3.China is going in stagnation period population wise. 3.1 RU when faced with this type of situation went outwards in syria, georgia and ukr and then in UKR again which they are now 4. Chinese may attack Taiwan (spin dictators) 5. Indian (Public servants machinery knows about it) ALL three chiefs of navy, airforce and army held secret room meeting in Taiwan 6. Big Question is ; If China wents gun blazing in Taiwan should India sieze moment and try to take back aksai chin? should we open the second front? if so can we be able to handle it? 7. Some Chinese economic miracle is over and thats a fact and it may never come back, Going to knowledge economy would be extremely difficult as chinese have CCP 8. Consumption based economy is not going to happen as even the fundamentals like strong financial system is absent, like Credit Cards or No Cost EMI or bank offers are rare occurances. They tried to make credit card more pervasive and it still is in work progress. 9. Chinese society are very money minded godless society, as their economy stagnates we may see more police state dystopia as people starts to rise up against CCP and tyranny. (Human Nature is to seek the insatiable & there Freedom is paramount and broodingly omnipresent) People would Rise against CCP as they are unable to held their end of social contract
You might be working in the Indian Foreign Service or A Raw agent? What is your source? Most of the points are amazing but the 6th one was so outlandish that I really laughed after reading it. First of all, China is no Pakistan. They are the world's second biggest military power with the latest technologies. Second, Did you hear the statement made by our Foreign Minister? He clearly said that he is not a fool to start war with "Bigger Power" China. So this government can do things with Pakistan but not with China. Also it doesn't fit in der Hindu Muslim Narrative. Also, you cannot claim victory over China. Be realistic, you are talking about a deputy Super Power. And even if Russians are not winning war, they have almost destroyed half of Ukraine. We cannot afford war at this time. So my reason is different and it is not the cowardly reason used by our FM that we cannot fight with bigger power. But I agree with him that India should not go to war with China. We cannot afford it right now and not in the next 20 years.
@@BharatThatIsIndia6 th point is not far from possible if china attacks Taiwan western countries and usa forces India to act India chooses to attack in aksaichin
@@nishant7903 First of all China will not attack Taiwan. Secondly, Even if Western Countries will force India for a war with China, India will never do it. I don't like the Modi government and its politics but I don't think Modi Ji is naive to act under pressure from Western Countries and have a war with China. India depends on China for many things. India is not in a position to go to war with China. India will act in its own interest.
If unemployment is a problem, then population reduction measures were/are correct measures right - I mean in the longer term too, machines will replace human jobs.
Housing crisis is the biggest thing, most of the indian steel companies will be under pressure too, can only sustain more on domestic demand, there main thing which drives the growth in china is housing and looks like its not resolving soon with population shrinking further
China was able to maintain a growth rate of 10% in early 2000s since its economy was small. Its not realistic to expect China to maintain the same rate of growth on a 18 trillion $ economy.
SG; If you had inherited the wealth of your 14 Ancestors, you would not be doing any job and enjoying life. I suggest all Print readers/viewers try doing this exercise. This is what a Chinese newborn inherits today after 3 generations of the one-child policy.
The education being in a local language also minimizes the mobility of talent to other countries and or even offshoring of skilled jobs… india gets offshoring cause of English language skills ..and these brings export $’s……. In hind sight killing the Edtech sector was not such a good idea….Also the distrust created by china’s geopolitics stand reduces global trust in trade in high end skills and technology leading to reduction of opportunities…. India needs to tread carefully in navigating these times…given the AI race only the very strategic and high tech as well as sheer labor jobs will exist….
Thanks! Great show. I always enjoy your wisdom. Also, I’m happy that I now have a way to contribute to your show (I tried to join as a contributor last year, but was told that I had to be an “Indian” citizen to do so :)
Dear Elizabeth, Thank you for contributing to ThePrint. Glad to know that you enjoyed watching this episode of #CutTheClutter. We're sorry to hear that you were prompted with such a response. We assure you that there is no such prompt that comes on our website subscription. You may opt for an international subscription here: theprint.in/subscribe/
Hello Shekhar - I have been watching CTC since the very first episode and is a paid subscriber as well . I have seen few episodes about mass leaders who have passed away , which were very informative . I would like to request you to please do a CTC episode on the former chief minister of Kerala Oommen Chandy who recently passed away as he was a very unique politician having won from the same constituency continuously for more than 52 years and was a true mass leader as well (which these days is not very common in the congress party). Thank you!
Happy Independence Day team The Print Dear SG Sa’ab can you please make a CTC on internal dynamics of China with finest experts like Ananth krishnan, Shivshankar Menon etc
Another key indicator re China's economic woes .. Singapore REIT portfolios have dropped in value by 25 % ...they have investments in the US and China.
Communist regime's economic wisdom ...Centre will decide where to apply the resources regardless of the need...only because it keeps people employed ...if a doctor has to lay bricks so be it ...be thankful he or she has the opportunity to do so for the NATION !!!😄
Shekhar ji, from your lines at 19:40, one can infer that Deng Xiaoping was not a dictator, but XI is. But I think you are saying, he was not as dictatorial as XI is. Am I right or didn't understand you?
In a political sense Deng was definitely dictatorial. Tiananmen happened under his watch. But in an economic sense he was more liberal, in favor of privatization and less state control, which is what fueled China's economy boom. He also put a lot of effort into understanding how the US thinks and sees itself, to better influence the country to maintain positive relations with them. He also focused on keeping good relations with middle powers like Japan and Russia.
@@JohnSmith-vn8dm He was a dictator who believed in economic liberalisation. He might become one bcz The Great Leap Forward by Mao was a complete disaster and Deng wanted to change that for his country. But He was a communist dictator sitting just below Mao and Xi. We should not have a doubt about that.
Sound analysis, well researched. Although you never really know until you know with the Chinese. Lots behind that Yellow Curtain that needs to be accounted for.
Indian journos always come up with cringeworthy content when it is about China. The comingcollapse of China has been propagated for more than 2 decades now. And further to the disappointment of poor Indian journos, it doesn't seem to be happening.
Chinese economy is for Chinese not for Indians and by the way when you will talk about mass migration, low wages, unemployment, indiscipline language of politicians, state sponsors pogroms, farmers issues in India.
China's economy has been in a fall since it raised it ambitions from becoming more than a cheap labor manufacturing hub. India's has a much stronger base of diversified sectors, no over-reliance on Real-estate, a younger demography and most important of all, a democratic society. Young people in India need to make full use of the next two decades where the scale and potential of India is unmatched.
Had seen this analysis a month ago... Just read the news today - Country Garden indicated that it's set for its maiden default... The crisis in Chinese Real Estate Market seems near... Great insights and analysis Shekhar Sir!
Does this indicate that poverty is not the reason for terrorism. They are well informed, very much know what they want and are doing things only to achieve that??? This is scary…
Deflation stalls demand due to consumer expectations of lower prices in the future in response producers reduce prices further causing a doom loop... If the debt in the economy is large then this demand stall results in catastrophic collapse of companies and banks ....
It may be not all what it seems! It may be a subtle way of spreading the young population for it to be easily targetted instead of concentrating them in the cities. It's long term planning. Bitter first, sweet later! Could be that tremendous changes are afoot!
“ The world has realized after the conflict of Russia Ukraine and the potential threat of conflict with China, that Democracy is the place to be”. - Sunil Singhania
But did we realise it? If you ask common Indians, we still like Indira Government work during emergencies or we like the autocratic rule of Modi ji. Even on state level, we like Vijayan, Stalin, Yogi, Kejariwal, Jagan, etc in comparison with Shivraj, Siddaramaiyaah, etc who are more democratic in der approach.
@@BharatThatIsIndia Autocratic rule, if that is what it actually is, is a good thing for India right now. Indian Demographics is not going to wait for Indian politics to sort itself out so that economic reforms, which are necessary but are politically unfavorable, can be pushed through. A lot of much required economic reforms were stalled because of a weak MMS govt. and the 'Suit-Boot ki sarkar' jibe (which stopped land reforms). Japan, South Korea, Taiwan were all military dictatorships when they grew at high rates. They turned into democracies as the growth slowed down. China and Vietnam are communist autocracies (what happens as the growth slows down is yet to be seen). Malaysia achieved high rate of growth under 22 years of rule by Mahathir. Singapore also grew under the unchallenged and autocratic rule of Lee Kaun Yew. People often ask, why can't we grow as fast as China? .. Why are we celebrating 7% growth when China could achieve double digit growth? I find those questions really stupid. We can't cause we can't do things like China can . We can't even execute a bullet train project timely. Why?.. Because land acquisition can't happen in Maharastra cause the under-serving Uddhav Thackeray wants to be CM. The fact is there is no democracy in this world which grew at very high economic rates which being a liberal democracy that you seem to yearn for (Not even the West). People who don't know history have a very ideological view of democracy with the belief the democracy is good for all situations and even a slightest decrease or perceived decrease in democratic workings of a govt. is the biggest cause for concern. People should stop considering all other factors and only lament the loss (not complete) of democracy.
@@arunsar7893 😂😂😂 India is full of people like you. There are many who still think the emergency were great. So I m not surprised. Your data is so flawed. Cambodia, Mayanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Srilanka, etc were under dictatorial government. What is der situation? Japan has been a democracy since 1945 and I think after ww2, they grew under democracy only. The USA, France, Norway, etc all have democracy. They grew under that only. Now, the Modi government. Did you ever compare the growth data of the MMS government and the Modi government? Just check once. Indian economy size doubled in last decade. What about now? It is only 70%. Check the average growth rate too. So don't tell me that it is good for India to have a Dictatorial leader. Check employment, inflation. You can compare with worst UPA era of 2012-13 only. So Modi is competing with UPA worst era and der also he is not winning by much. Actually anyone who thinks that Dictatorial or Autocratic rule is good for India, they never used der brain and are most superfluous person. I don't think you are any different. Yes China has Grown understand dictatorial rule but just check under whose rule it started. Mao has destroyed China. Deng Xiaoping started the liberalisation and he succeeded. He also needed to give economic Freedom and then only China grew. I should not have even written this bcz one should not try to have an argument with a supporter of autocratic or Dictatorial government. Bcz if they have the argument, why will they have any problem with democracy in the first place.
Thanks Shekarji and team for another excellent episode. You told us a few weeks back that India's GDP might not catch up with China's for a few generations as China is already far ahead. Now is this deflation induced GDP shrinkage big enough to expedite India's catch up ? Or is the deflation in China at a lower order of magnitude to make any meaningful change in their GDP trajectory vis-a-vis India ?
If you assume China will have 0 growth for the next 2 decades and they are overstating their GDP, it will take 20 years of 7% growth for India to catch up. If you assume China will have a low rate of 3% growth with persistent deflation it will take roughly 25-30 years for India to catch up to their economy. The point of this is not to lose hope, but just to keep in mind that catching up to China is a long journey and cannot be done overnight. China did not build its lead over India in a day. What India should focus on is learning from China's successes and failures. Remember that Deng Xiaoping built up China's economy and Xi is ruining it and look at their policies accordingly. On the foreign policy front Deng believed in "biding your time and hiding your strength" and developing positive relations with the West to attract FDI while Xi was in favor of economic self reliance, assuming that the Chinese market was so big that foreign companies would enter no matter what, and he had a very aggressive foreign policy stance. Deng favored less state control over the economy while Xi expanded the role of state companies. Deng focused on fundamental reforms like reducing bureaucracy, farming reform, land reform, and textile growth for jobs. Xi was mainly focused on high tech areas like semiconductors and expanding R&D. These are just some of the policy differences off the top of my head, but I am sure you can find more.
@@JohnSmith-vn8dm Thank you for your detailed comments. I really enjoyed reading through the policy comparison between Deng and Xi. Rationale over rhetoric is what I love about this channel. On an unrelated note, I think India's economy is big enough or is on a trajectory to be big enough to exert geo-political sway in most situations. As the pie grows, we will also do better on per capita. I think it's time to start working on the income/wealth inequality we have today to sustain and de-risk that growth. We have to be wary of concentration risk in the drivers for GDP.
@@JohnSmith-vn8dm Or i have even better suggestion. We cannot replicate China and no need to feel bad about it. They are a dictatorship, we are not. Indians should work hard to increase manufacturing, improve GDP per capita, quality of life and feel proud of ourselves, despite the disadvantages of democracy we have progressed. Constant comparison w China and inferiority complex should be avoided.
there was a Glodman Sachs projection which said that in another 50 years, US, China and India would all be around $51 trillion economy. Basically, US continues t grow at 2-3 percent, China too around that and India growing at 5-7 and eventually catching up with China and US
Lol. Have you seen our urban infrastructure? Even Africa is better than ours. China's 3% growth is much more than India's 6% growth in terms of numbers. China is going nowhere. They are part of the global supply chain
During their success of such half backed or assembled leadership our jounalist will hail and professional ( R Rajan) will caution. Voters deserve what they are capable.
China is trying to transition from export driven growth (based on manufacturing) to domestic growth (based on services). That will lead to relatively fewer jobs and hence lower wages ...means less buying power for the people...and ofcourse its impact on housing etc
Excellent CTC. As mentioned by many in the comments column, this is indeed a masterclass on economics. SG, taking the liberty of stating it in your style- thanks for slicing the mango and serving it in a bowl
The problem of a strong armed leader thinking that he knows all the problems and solutions. Chinese misery doesn’t give any breather to India. In fact, Xi Jinping might ramp up the tension in the border as a diversionary tactic. Incidentally, is deflation the right term to describe the economy of China? Shouldn’t the term to be used is “depression”? Remember the Great Depression of the US in the late 1920s and 1930s?
I love the analysis, I used to understand sustained low interest rates as a sign of a mature or advanced economy, however, in the Chinese case, it seems like sustained low interest rates is a long term fight against systemic deflation.
4 Ds. You missed the biggest one, Demographics. Deflation can be reversed with the correct policies, Deleveraging can be reduced with correct foreign policies and following international law, Defaults will eventually stop in 6 months or 1 year, but solving Demographic decline and aging workforce will take 20 years to solve in a best case scenario, if the populace agrees to procreate once again. Good luck to China on that last D.
After BG visit to Chinese President, Jack ma followed him big way in to agri production business. China&NK ignore basic nutrition of poor @ time immeorial. Does pension funds of USA invested in China bonds can be off set against USA import deficit? Can there be a link between guarantee and unguaranteed borrowing between China and USA. Capital goods products much depen on dynamics of economy; Mr Biden clapped for indias Boeing dealt. 😂 As you said hope for the best. All demoractic markets pricing gives profit. How far China liberate further under R& U war and how well USA take it God only knows.
