have been following David these last 2 long years. I have been hearing the same thing all the time, every time his forecast is not fulfilled, it rises from 4,200 in June 2020, to 4,400 in November 2020, then it was 4,500 in March 2021, and he reneged on 4,700 in a tweet. Then he not only raised the bet to 4700, it was already 4800, then 5000 and now 6000, and soon we will see 7000
Yea there is a difference between being "bold" and putting a prediction of melt up and market top, and actually calling a peak, shorting and sticking with it. If he continually calls a melt up, he can't be blamed for urging investors to get out of the market. If market continues to go up, wow what an amazing call. Since he also calls market top within 6 months every few months, he will 100% guarantee calling the top eventually within a few months at some stage. Jeremy Grantham on the other hand said in January 2021, there is a high probability of a market top within a few months, hedged with short positions on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. He admitted at least currently a loss on his Nasdaq short, and a profit on his Russell 2000 short positions. He also admitted he was at least out by a few months. His reversion to trend has S&p 500 at 2500, a 45% decline from recent top, but mentions some crashes go to trend, some go below trend. This would give the S&p valuation closer to 18-20, Buffett indicator 100%-110% which is very close to long term average.
Great interview Adam! I respect David’s fortitude to take a step out there with some very specific forecasts that people can digest and make their own decisions on. I have limited experience in buying treasuries off treasury direct and would appreciate a video. it would also be helpful to go through the basics of how you make money on bonds through yields and capital appreciation.
Adam, you are very kind, thoughtful and intelligent. Your suggestions from experts say to hedge, manage risk accordingly, good advice. On the discussion I totally understand you are just picking their brains, and letting viewers decide. But you give so much credit to David Hunter for his correct calls (he was correct on melt up in FAANGs in 2021, and recent 10% correction) , without calling him out on incorrect calls (e.g. called the bust in summer of 2021). He has made many bust calls since 2014 which haven't eventuated. It seems slightly disingenuous to me and some other viewers not to give a fair representation of his calls. Also when he makes predictions, why not ask why or counteract with differing opinions from other experts? Apologies for any offence caused, I do enjoy the amazing discussions, just I think it may be helpful knowing some feedback from viewers. Anyway, keep up the great work!
What I found with people that market predictions, they remind us of their correct calls but never mention the ones they missed. David would not be unique in not mentioning the misses.
look at TLT for that play and UUP for the $. I will trade leverage up and down. tqqq and for gold JNUG for example and for the bust SQQQ and SRTY, UUP and TMF more examples
I used to admire David Hunter...but having watched him multiple times I am fully convinced that he is a Bear and influencing others to miss on gains. There is a video of him claiming the bust would be in 2014 ..another in 17...another in 20...and now again in early 22. IF i was him....I would actually be embarrassed to come out and repear all these years. ITS CLEAR THAT YOU CANNOT FIGHT THE FED
Perhaps but he called this pullback in January to a tee back in December even after Powell suggested rates won’t come til March and most people expected January to be bullish after a pullback in December.
Great Channel. You are my top finance channels. Our portfolio has been thriving over the past year based on strategies from your guests. Through very strange times…our investments have supported us through closed business due to covid. Very thankful for genuine mission to give sound advice. Just wanted to let you know, your channel is helping real people and families. Keep up the great work!
My issue with financial advisors is that most just tend to follow the market and then down, they rarely artfully exit at or near the top. So, basically most are just higher priced index funds.
Bless his soul. Such a pleasant, wise gentleman with years of experience sharing his views with the public. I’ve had the pleasure of sharing a flight deck with a lot of folks his age, can’t say enough good things about every single one of them. Thanks for your time Dave. Best wishes from Canada.
Adam, can you include "I Bonds" risks and rewards in your next explainer video? I know they have yearly limits but not sure if there are other downsides.
If you think an 80% crash is coming, why would you want to own anything? Saying there's a 40% rise coming before the crash is all very well if you're an expert at timing the market to the week.
I disagree. Two weeks ago, I cut my losses and cashed everything out and bought uvxy for a few days and saw my overall portfolio go up. I just waded back in with Apple after their earnings report. Also Nvidia. I will be adding Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Once I see the market start to come down again I will cash out and take a position in uvxy again.
@@thomasmarine5418 I don't see how we can melt up from here knowing that a bunch of rate hikes are coming in this year. Unless they reverse course there's nothing to save this market from trending down that started in late Nov for the overall market. Of course the flyers have already been crashing since late April. If AMZN comes out with bad guidance then any rally that we have between now and next Thurs will be short live.
@@mikes.2471 only in fantasia world of retail investors that are thinking fed will rescue them forever. Pushed by omikron ends. You never know. I think behavior could be much unthinkable. A melt up could come. Yet the fed hasn't rose interest rates. Fed meeting in March would be interesting.
@Roger C I think the market goes up until the March meeting. I think a lot of people that got out will get back in trying to recover their losses. I will be prepared to pull my money out again if things start going south again
@@thomasmarine5418 I think that too in a way, although I believe in jeremy grantham and Dr. Michael Burry But A lot of people are ignorant, thinking the fed would never do anything against the stock market, but help it as soon the losses are around 20%. Risking civil unrests because of inflation, and a mid term disaster for Biden, Powell must hike rates in March.
Thank you, David and Wealtheon. Gratefully appreciate your time and expertise and willingness to continue to share with us, including on Twitter. Hopefully we can all capitalize on these imminent moves. God bless.
I just wonder why we as humans always think that forecasters in every industry have any special mystical powers to predict the future. In all honesty, David Hunter can't possibly know what the stock market is going to do in any given period of time.
I could see a 30% rise from here pretty easily, and since the market is so leveraged up, a fall from that high could easily dip to an 80% loss, especially when you consider how many derivatives go short so quickly, the market would be like a freight train running off a cliff.
@@kimchifamily I realize it is called forecasting which is why I used the word "Forecasters" in my statement. My point is that I think that forecasting is a false science to a degree. While it may bring some intrigue and things to speculate about, rarely ever can we rely on the projections of these so called "Forecasters."
Can we get an opinion or guidance on money market funds and bond funds in the crash… I don’t have a lot of options outside of those. And they aren’t fdic insured.
I want to know the same think. The 401k sucks because it doesn't allow for an escape valve from a market crash other than a money market mutual fund and some bond funds. I don't know if we can trust a money market fund.
I very much appreciate your show and that you had David Hunter on. You had mentioned Treasurydirect. What do you think about inflationary bonds here? What bonds would you be looking at when we go into the bust? What treasury bonds would you look at when we come out of the bus?
Yes he thought crash by june/july 2021, he keeps changing targets in price and time frame every few months. He also thought silver would be $50 in 2021. He called crashes many other times that did not happen. In 2014 he stated we were in a bear market, and would see a bigger decline than 2008. Dropped 10% I think.
i'll give it to david that he knew it would end like this, but he's been saying it is imminent since 2013-2014. i'll listen to his advice about what to invest in when the market does begin melting down though.
Thx Adam. Great interview with excellent questions. Question I have re new harbor: What EXACTLY is the Financial arrangement between them and you personally? Are you a partner/founder there with a financial interest? thx
I do not doubt what he said will happen, BUT, only if the market does not react to the rate hike by the FED. I can’t see a melt up in the next 4 months.
What are Mr. Hunter's credentials? I can't really find anything on him. I only see his Linkedin? profile that states he is with Contrarian Macro Advisors but I can't find that company. Where is written evidence of any previous projections?
What a great program, Adam! I can't thank you enough for bringing this channel to live. Please keep up the great work, sir. If no other program existed, yours would be enough to keep us informed and educated when it comes to the stock market and what the future holds for the financial markets.
It's easy to set up an account and you can buy bills of varying short time durations. I did it until rates went way down, but am ready to going in again for awhile when the rates match the 0.2% being paid at my credit union (at the $50,000 account level). I bought several tranches and was catching upticks for awhile...You can also buy bonds on the secondary market from brokers.
Hello Wealthion… for Canadians, can you talk with Bob Thompson, Portfolio Manager of Raymond James in Vancouver. I’ve watched numerous interviews with David Lim at Kitco, and I am impressed by him. I do NOT invest with them yet and I do NOT have any relationship whatsoever with Bob or the company.
I've been hiding in long bonds for the last two quarters waiting for the deflationary bust. I needed no convincing of that. But I now see that David is right. Within the next month, equities rip. By July/August, equities will be R.I.P.
I agree, but I think it happens a little later than you and David think. The rip in equities will begin in March where we'll see inflation readings come down and the fed leave rates at zero.
No one can predict the future, but it is useful to project likely scenarios. Inflection points by their nature limit the scope of available options while increasing the impact of a given choice.
I’d like more detail on this view of ‘money printing’. The Fed has created bank reserve which is not ‘money’ that escapes the banking system and gets/leaks into the economy. Proof of this is commercial banks with record levels of bank reserves have reduced lending (money creation). The low interest rates indicate tight money supply; not inflation (supply of money) .. a global dollar shortage. The Fed can increase its balance sheet but ‘can’ they sustainably increase interest rates (debt levels, ) in the next cycle? Seems they would have to something else (increase gold price, direct money distribution to citizens, ..) to sustainable increase interest rates.
What I have read from a tax efficient standpoint is to hold bonds in your Traditional or Roth IRA's. Is the theory of holding Treasuries outside of IRA's is to not worry about being tax efficient during a market crash?
The Chart @ 18:53 is my #1 take away from this. The Oct and Nov '08 numbers might need some blending adjustments because they are so close and represent the same time frame. Since the October '97 entry happened the day after the "flash crash" of '97, I would not consider this in my analysis or comparison. One month from now might be a better buying opportunity than right now. Until I can figure out where the money could possibly be coming from I won't be betting on a melt up at this time.
There absolutely is a way to structure options if you believe in Dave’s meltup call. If you believe S&P will hit 6,000 in H1 ‘22, buy 550 SPY calls dated in July/August (or later if you want to play it safer). Even if SPY only got to 550 in H1 you’d be looking at 1000% plus returns easily. I don’t see anything wrong with putting a little down even if you think Dave has a 30% chance of being correct given the potential reward.
I've been through a 120 dollar. You buy things foreign. That 2 year domain name renewal will become a 10 domain name renewal. People purchased foreign cars on the last go round.
