I remember during planning for SGR. People asked why not upgrade the old railway line to save on costs. The government said that the old railway line had a different and complex agency responsible for management and finance tied to the colonial days. Hence the need for having a new and separate railway. But now after the Chinese cut funding for the second phase, the Kenyan government is now upgrading the old railway to Naivasha. Like seriously??!
Once you enlighten yourself (through quick Googling) about the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), everything that Ndii says will make sense. Its not about us, its about China.
I would not call him an idiot, but he clearly do not have a vision. If I have an opportunity to borrow money to buy a truck, I would not choose to carry goods on my bickcle for afraid of debt.
The Chinese logic is easy; 1. I will give you a huge loan 2.You'll then hire me to construct, maintain and ran the project 3. Now its time to pay back 4. Unable to pay?? Ok, let's renegotiate 5. Give us the project, let it be Chinese owned until its fully paid off
Even as we ask what was the relevance of the SGR over the Lapset project, ask yourself this, what is the relevance of building a 6 lane expressway from Mombasa to Nairobi beside a just concluded exorbitant SGR? One should have sufficed
Also ask yourself who benefits more when government projects are initiated. Is it Kenyans or it's the politicians in power and their evil investors? The Express Way is gonna be built kama kuna *Cha Kula* mpende msipende. Na Vision 2030 si ndoto kweli? #tujiangalie.
I blame all this to our education system that teaches us not to ask why ?????? Now let's enjoy paying for the project but I hope we can learn something from this.
Purity Mukami paying? SGR does not even break even, it's making loses even with both PAX and Cargo. They will spend their lifetime here milking it and taking something else to fill up the loss they are undergoing for SGR. I bet you guys have not seen racism, these guys are worse than the well known racist in the world!!! And they will do it here in Kenya and we will have no say whatsoever
The profitability of a public project like SGR should not be calculated as you do on a corporate company. Majority of the railways on the earth will never be built if you follow Mr. Ndii's logic. The SGR can benefit many other industries of the country. For example, the tourism has increased by 40% since SGR running. Does Mr. Ndii include that benefit in his formula?
Tourism packages to Mombasa have increased,bus accidents have reduced in Mombasa road,the Mombasa road can withstand tear and wear more since road tracks are minimised
Acha longo longo ww hujui lolote huyo anasema ukweli mtupu hiyo SGR inamtajirisha mchina na ndio hao wanaokatisha tickets mpaka waludishe mipesa yao ya loans 🤣🤣🏃🏃
This is short term and small minded thinking. The big picture is that with the new railway network, Kenya will become a hub and transit point for a large part of East Africa. If Kenya develops at a good pace, it will become a prosperous capital region that is able to tap the East African hinterland not only in terms of transport, but also manufacturing, finance, culture etc. It will act in the same way Singapore does for the Southeast Asian region, or Dubai functions for the Persian Gulf region. The Chinese think big and long term. Ndii is much more comfortable with nitpicking.
You are exactly right. Further more he is trying to say the old rail was fine but wasn't the old rail meter gauge? The new rail is standard gauge. Standard gauge is larger track. The same size as rail used in most of the world today. It allows you to use larger locomotives and cars with a higher capacity and ability to carry people and freight more efficiently. Bottom line is countries like Kenya and regions like East Africa can not expect to ever have industrialization and competitive trade without more modern and extensive rail roads or highways.
@@gacaptain America, Britain, France, they all industrialized with less than a quarter of the infrastructure that Kenya has today. The metre gauge is just a gauge. If you need to move more goods, you only need to buy more trains. Japan uses the metre gauge. The metre gauge in Japan is used for freight. The standard gauge railway in Japan is used only for the bullet train, and the wider gauge is needed because the train moves at 300 kph + Their metre gauge railways comfortably carry freight trains doing the 120 kph that the sgr does here. Japan is industrialized and rich so out goes your argument. Industrialization and economic development is about the mindset not the infrastructure. The East African Railways and Harbours Corporation was the best in Africa, even South Africa trained part of its staff here, despite them having double the length of track (8k in East Africa, 20k in South Africa). The EAR&H operated the largest fleet of ferries and ships in all of Africa. Yet within 5 years of independence, the EAR&H collapsed. Ferries are rotting in Kisumu and Port Bell and Mwanza. Africans clearly lack the necessary mindset to be wealthy and would simply prefer to blame others for their own failures
@@theturkanabus3610 Those countries industrialized in an age where they were only competing mostly with other unindustrialized countries. Japan is a narrow linear country with nowhere near the land size or natural resources as East Africa or Africa as a whole. There's no comparison what so ever.
@@gacaptain You are right. Japan is a very small, resource poor country and East Africa is almost the exact opposite. Which makes our situation even more embarrassing and emphasizes my point. Japan succeeds despite their resource poverty, we are still failing despite our resource wealth. Again, economic development is a mindset and has nothing to do with infrastructure. If you want to succeed, you will succeed despite unfavourable circumstances, as Japan has proven but if you want to remain poor and mediocre, you will remain poor and mediocre, despite favourable circumstances, as East Africa has proven. You are arguing about trees in a discussion about forests
Where were these guys before the railway was constructed. I am disgusted by people who only critisize peojects after they have been constructed. These guys, Prof. Ndii included should tell us what we should do to ensure we have food security, energy self sufficiency among other problems facing us. How much does the trucks pay for damaging the road in a year.
Apart from the huge loan, we Kenyans were made to pay for this railway in 2013, who ever sent cargo by air used to be forced to pay money for this project, I asked why am paying 5,000/= for my luggage and my luggage came by air, I was told the government said so. to clear my luggage that was only 3 suitcases costed me 26,000. including 5,000 for the SGR. the crazy part I paid for insurance here in Nairobi and I had paid before in the other country when sending my luggage.
My African Friend Said: we might be poor but we're not stupid. History has been very very bad and unkind to us but at least we know one thing.. who's good and who's evil. We don't mind if China takes 100% and we Africans got 0% we are used to it but with China we get roads, railways, schools, housing, hospitals, electricity, jobs and the most important thing is.. We got HOPE! Hope that our children could have a better future than us today. Don't care what others say we Africans got something too.. a pair of eyes! We can see for ourselves what the Chinese are doing for us. I'm an employee with a Chinese firm and I know all too well. I thank the Chinese people and President Xi for giving me one simple thing.. HOPE
Soeni Rono I think that killing Mombasa and looting this project were the primary reasons for the SGR. SGR has killed thousands of jobs in the trucking and fuel economy sectors. Mombasa is nothing without the opportunities offered by the port. The SGR has taken that away.
I really like Dr ndii's argument, instead of building the sgr the government should have instead expanded the Nairobi - Mombasa highway and upgrading the existing railway line.
The SGR is not just about connecting Mombasa and Nairobi. The point of it is to interconnect Kenya and it's port with the entire region by rail. Nairobi to Mombasa is just the first phase of that plan.
Hii ni reli ya kikuyuni killing the coast its just moving the port to naivasha ie kikuyuni and let mombasa and wapwani die of joblessness this is wat mavi legacy has done to us
This is my question to Dr Ndii, what is your honest and most considered opinion on the SGR considering all the arguments you've made and the fact that it is already here with us?
@李晓峰 like I can see you smiling as y'all dig Kenyan pockets pulling out their buck for them 30 yrs down road. N by the time that year is comes, the govnmt has to come up with another buck in repairs...will come back to u I guess..like tht huh lol
We don't need railways and superhighways to boost our economy. Imagine if gov marketed our agricultural products abroad. They would bring enough money to build the roads and the railways.
And how would our agricultural products make it to the market big infrastructure works and for the record personally I would prefer we built a highway then when we have the money go for a bullet train.
@@kamaujohn6303 a story of meru the road from Maua to meru town was a little hell before kibaki. Then from meru to Nairobi it was full of potholes and still people from meru manged to have miraa to ge their produce (miraa) to UK and Middle east. If there is a ready market for our produce we can never fail to deliver despite the condition of our roads even if it requires us to buy military trucks. Then we will have enough money to build our roads with ease without loans.
@@ngurezmr1505 You can't really improve agriculture to it's full potential without improving rural roads and major highways. I hate to tell you but development of a country to first World status is not an issue of just doing one thing and Bang! we are there. You do need improved agricultural output, you need better rural roads, highways, rail roads, and power stations all of which are expensive but if done just right and smartly each thing that is done can support and generate revenue that will help pay for the other.
I understand your point, very well indeed. My point is, if there is ready market for our produce, the government will know which road should be build fast and which should follow.
Mister Ndii, arguments like yours are what makes many of us lose faith in learned folks of your kind. You forget one basic fact: the SGR will be there even after you have long left this world. It is not really up to you to condemn it wholesomely. In fifty years time the world will not be as it is today. The way you are arguing is as if the SGR is a loaf of bread that becomes useless after only a few days. Let the SGR be. Some well- meaning and forthright Kenyans will in future figure out how to make it work better. But for now, kudos to those compatriots who conceptualized the project and actually made it a reality. We must salute them, if only for that achievement...
There is still upright Kenyans and civil servants, so I don't wholeheartedly agree with your comment but I most respect it. Unlike most comments here that have already made up there minds and just came to confirm it here with , "now I believe in you" kind off comments.
I am watching this now that Prof. Ndii is in William Rutos Government as an Economic Adviser. I hope to see his Ideas implemented for the greater good of the country.
Ndii, can you begin a crusade for us to see the projected profit and loss statements before govt commits Kenyans to tax hell on any project above a certain amount. Look at even decisions on things like new police uniforms which are a complete waste of money. Please. I will support you. Because we have complete jokers running this country.
If we don't pay back their money, they will cease national assets like ports , airports and energy grid. Check out what they did and are doing to Zambia, they now own the Zambian intl airport, copper mines, broadcasting network, energy grid.
Ndii is quite smart, we don’t comprehend him unless you have studied Economics. Over 75% of money Kenya borrows is unaccounted for, that’s a fact. We are DOOMED!!!
Such discussions is what I wish Kenyans could be talking about day in, day out on social media. We are going lose our port at the expense of a certain family.
No. We will be losing the railway at the expense of Truckers and godown owners in Mombasa. What we need to do is to enhance railway transportation up to Nanyuki, Nyahururu and inductrial areas of Nairobi and Thika so that we use the roads as little as possible to transport heavy cargo. That way, we save the cost of road maintenance. While Ndii is a brilliant economist, but he is not looking at the bigger picture. You need to interview a Roads Engineer or a railways Engineer and hear what he will say.
Why Panama spent billions to build/expand the canal for sea cargo passing for all other countries ? The best business is that all inland countries pay Kenya money for passing cargo thru SGR.
But if Kenya charged too much, the inland countries will ship through Dar es Salaam instead of Mombasa is the problem. Panaman Canal has no competing canal to worry about.
No serious country in the world has developed without borrowing. USA has the biggest external debt at 20 trillion US dollars . Multiply this by 100 to see the amount in Kenya shillings. It's followed closely by Japan, then China itself. Kenya is number 82 in world ranking of external debt. We must borrow to develop. Simple as that. The only thing that matters is the terms of repayment and checking corruption and conflict of interest. If Kenya can access low interest loans like the global north does, then why not ? The problem in Kenya is our skewed domestic conflicted borrowing. I mean bank A, bank B and other owners of capital lending to the government at high interest rates instead of the government going for affordable loans from elsewhere.
My friend call it public debt not external debt, a good chunk of us debt is federal agency-to-agency.... debt needs to be diversified as well, and thats the problem here
Kiprotich Toroitich but are we able to generate internal revenue to service the debts.Currently we are even unable to generate revenue to service our debts and meet our recurrent expenditure.KRA is continually missing the targets mark you the principal element on some of this loans has not kicked in.Once it does more taxes are bound to be charged.How long do you think the external investors are going to stick around before deciding to move their production to more lucrative countries.Then our economy shrinks,we are already in a hole no need to dig further in pursuit of vanity projects.Comparing our economy to that of G20 countries is just wrong?our economy's capacity to generate sufficient revenues for such grandoise projects is just not there.
@@TheTororist ...very true. but you cant compare us economy with kenyan economy kwanza. Us is repaying its loan cause they have created wealth and job while kenya is taxing pple that are not worKing. kenya has a poor fragile economy. we have already defaulted on the loan..ooh you did know that?.
America is inventing many industries daily but in Kenya what we have? Nothing. Just tax tax and tax then big men coming smiling and we know all is not well.
Is Ndii really saying that road transport is cheaper than rail?, The initial cost of SGR is high but after completion it will be able to reduce cost of transportation. About capacity, with good planning it can serve our neighbours too, and don't forget the old rail is there as a buffer. The US has alot of rails and even with a very good road network, rail companies are still profitable. Ndii is approaching the issue in a very simplistic manner. What will make sgr fail is corruption if the monies aren't accounted for or maintanance neglected. We are in a learning process, and the first thing we have to learn is; don't steal from your government. China is in it for the money, this is a well planned Chinese ' kingdom' network. In the long run a reliable rail from the coast to the hinterland will reduce the cost of bussiness for China. The question is are we in it for the good of our future?. We should be demanding to know the details of the agreements for SGR.
On this point, i agree with you. Rail transport is always typically cheaper than road. But that economics might NOT come into play if the mathematics of borrowing and cargo pricing was not done right vs. road transport. And if corruption has come into play.
Hang on, Ndii says: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-tO5LrMHDl-A.html "... The dry cargo from Mombasa (a city in Kenya) to Finland (a country in Europe), going through the port of Mombasa ..." aren't we talking about the SGR from Mombasa to other parts of Kenya and neighboring countries?
The loan needs time to be paid so let's talk after 10 years and see if your sentiments will be the same. I was so surprised to see the Sgr being showcased on German channel .
When your entire reasoning and argument is based on profits, you become like David Ndii. This guy has a PhD in economics but his capitalist ideas make me sick. To him, the primary purpose of any national project is to make profits and any benefits of such projects should only be measured in terms of money. He also lacks any grasp of current or future environmental challenges posed by archaic transport systems. Yes, there are fundamental issues with the cost of the railway and our problems with Chinese debts but arguing that the SGR does not make sense just because it doesn't make profits is just stupid.
Albert, isn't tht the essence of any investment? Kwani mtu akiwa ana wekeza si nia niku tengeeza faida jmni. It should yield viable returns as an outcome
My African Friend Said: we might be poor but we're not stupid. History has been very very bad and unkind to us but at least we know one thing.. who's good and who's evil. We don't mind if China takes 100% and we Africans got 0% we are used to it but with China we get roads, railways, schools, housing, hospitals, electricity, jobs and the most important thing is.. We got HOPE! Hope that our children could have a better future than us today. Don't care what others say we Africans got something too.. a pair of eyes! We can see for ourselves what the Chinese are doing for us. I'm an employee with a Chinese firm and I know all too well. I thank the Chinese people and President Xi for giving me one simple thing.. HOPE
erling cantik we need to do for self though bro we can't just carry on like this forever as a people. We can acquire the knowledge easily now a days we just lack funds to execute about we as a people those who are able get creative with our funds and start a few small investing firms so our people can have more alternative to get equipments. The Africans governments talk about industrialized when we don't have any machine. How can we compete if we don't have tractors, electricity 24/7 like America and Europe
No serious country in the world has ever developed without borrowing. The greatest nations in the world have borrowed to develop. In business it's called using other people's money to success. See below. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
You miss the fact that the railway will be there for 100 years maybe more. If by 2030 we are a manufacturing nation then that railway will serve to carry goods for exportation. Not just cargo for Uganda
Talking about 2030 with the same thieves in government and *tenderpreneurs* on the loose??? Laptop za watoi wa shule ziko wapi? Industrialization is not a natural occurrence like the constant droughts but it's a *development* that can only be realized by a serious government and hardworking populace. Will politics of greed, corruption, negative ethnicity and dishonest leadership allow the *industrialization by 2030 or even 2050?*
@@mofaogallis1519 Always the pessimist. Our gdp has grown from $10 billion in 2002 to $80 billion in 2018. Our banking sector is leading in the region. Our agrobased industries are globally competitive. We've transitioned into assembly of heavy machinery. So while you spell doom for the future, I only see unlimited potential. Steps we are making towards tackling corruption is not futile and is a step in the right direction no matter how little you may say we've done.
@@MichaelMisoi it seems you kinda misunderstood me. My comment was a critique and not a condemnation to doom. The plan is so appealing on paper but those on whom powers and resources are vested to execute the plans are failing us. What I am advocating and will always advocate for is a society founded on the rule and respect of its Laws . My simple question was whether our leadership is seriously geared towards achieving what is laid before them as a developing nation. If the USA superpower fails to adhere to its foundation of proper governance it's gonna be just history like the *Greek Kingdom.* I agree we are doing better than we were doing prior to 2002 but is this the best we can do? What is barring us from achieving our yearly resolutions? Until the forces that pull us behind are addressed to totality, our invaluable progress might turn out to be futile. Make Kenya great.
@@MichaelMisoi also on the issue of Vision 2030 I would invite you to objectively rate Kenya as a nation how best she has achieved against what is achievable. [On housing, kindly watch #ntvpropertyshow of 16th Sept 2018 concerning slum upgrading]
If Nairobi were to become the hub of an extensive modern freight railway running all the way to the Congo and Rwanda and North to Ethiopia and Sudan do you not understand the ramifications that would have for the country as a whole? It would make Kenya 10 times more attractive to major industry . Furthermore you don't have to worry about it attracting customers to use it. Once it's finished Chinese companies will be using the hell out of it. They are the ones that want it built the most because they want and need to use it to ship mined goods from the interior of Africa as well as import their goods into the interior of East Africa! They are going to be paying for this use on top of that any Western companies that want to do the same. All of this will spur heavy industry that use lots of raw materials like concrete, and cement, chemicals, fertilizer, steel and other metal producers, automobile, plastics, oil refiners the list goes on and on to locate in Kenya or expand operations. With heavy industry plus the SGR here the materials to be used by light industry will be more readily available and cheaper so you will see those factories arrive too. This means jobs.
Underdeveloped countries need development to become more developed. Development brings more jobs opportunities. Most African countries are already indebted without even having those large scale public infrastructures. Public infrastructure investment is required if you want to develop faster. Even if you don't invest or built , there will also be criticism, for there will always be critics of all shades and colours. But African should not be sidetracked.
Mr. Ndii, when 1meter Gauge railway ie old railway was done, was Kenya in a position to pay for it at that time in 1907? Think global. For your information Lapest project was long time alocated to American.
I respect this gentlemen's logic. BUT playing the full time detractor and Debby-Downer does not improve the situation one bit. They've never built a statue for a critique.
Mark MM...these issues were raised at project conception but power elite insisted on implementing this project without adequate public participation and costing the country over USD 3 billion in loans. Surely as a tax payer he is right in asking these question... Our loan account is now at USD 56 billion.... This is totally insane....for a country where majority are poor.
@@dennisobare8892 I agree with him ( tiana Wairimutiana Wairimu). If Nairobi were to become the hub of an extensive modern freight railway running all the way to the Congo and Rwanda and North to Ethiopia and Sudan do you not understand the ramifications that would have for the country as a whole? It would make Kenya 10 times more attractive to major industry . Furthermore you don't have to worry about it attracting customers to use it. Once it's finished Chinese companies will be using the hell out of it. They are the ones that want it built the most because they want and need to use it to ship mined goods from the interior of Africa as well as import their goods into the interior of East Africa! They are going to be paying for this use on top of that any Western companies that want to do the same. All of this will spur heavy industry that use lots of raw materials like concrete, and cement, chemical, steel and other metal producers, automobile, plastics, the list goes on and on to locate in Kenya or expand operations. This means jobs.
@@gacaptain you are not even seeing the flaw in your argument. The railway is built to attract foreign investment? And transport minerals from Congo to China and imports from China to East Africa? So basically, Kenyans will have no place, except as low pay workers (like those in the flower farms in Naivasha) in an economy built in their own country? No wonder Africans are poor and people say the average iq is 70. As you have proven, they will celebrate their own enslavement happening in their own country without question
@@theturkanabus3610 I was only naming a few examples of how a modern standard gauge freight railroad is used. It would not just attract foreign industry it will facilitate the start and expansion of local industry ofcourse. All rail roads in all developed Nations are used to carry raw materials in and out of the country. The British use it to carry coal and oil, , for example. Here in America it's used to transport that and lumber, chemicals, corn, etc. etc. as well as finished manufactured goods like automobiles, tractors, container truck loads of durable and home goods etc. Railroads promote industrialization because they make it so much easier and faster to move raw material and finished products both from one place to another. Those materials could be raw material from the Congo or Uganda heading to a Kenyan owned factory in Kenya or finished goods from Kenya headed to Rwanda or the Port of Mombasa. Listen. The different combinations of ways it could be used are in the hundreds if not thousands. I could type a whole page of examples and still not tell you all the ways. Please do research on how freight train movement is used in the development of up coming countries and in modernized industrialized countries. I seriously don't have time to try and explain it all myself but you owe it to yourself and your country to enlighten yourself on this subject so you can move into the 21st century and beyond.
this guy is a western backer talking of chinese causing trouble the world over but what has kenyans benefited from the western countries. 50 african countries will in time will follow what he is saying kenyans will faced in time to come. this guy well fed well dress can say what he likes, without funding by china which country will finance proposed projects.
WHY I AM SKEPTIC OF MAY ANALYSTS IS BECAUSE THEY ARE STOOGES OF POLITICAL LEADERS>> NDII IS MORE OF A FREE THINKER>> SOMETIMES HE TAKES A SIDE TO PUT HIS POINTS ACROSS>> HE MIGHT BE IN THE WRONG SIDE BUT HE IS SAYING THE TRUTH>> N HE IS CONSISTENT>>>>
No. As the SGR grows and increases in use new industry will be attracted and old industry using it can expand. Trucks will be needed to service these new industries in addition to carry freight from rail road inland ports. So more trucks will be needed. Basically, SGR grows the economy which causes greater need for trucks.
Sir Ndii are we still seceding? If we are, Imagine how fast we will with this mode of transport? BITTERNESS WILL LEAD TO AN EARLY INSCRIPTION TO YOUR EPITAPH. Act your profession old man, don't be a storm brewer in a situation where the sky is azure. Anyway it's a storm in a tea cup. Not even manageable, it's a NON ISSUE.
This interview shows the best of African's inherent characters of low self-esteem and self-doubt . You wouldn't not find this in the West or in China that one started to suspect the bank manager of setting a debt trap simply by approving to grant a loan to the borrower.Might be most Africans have got used to free handouts for far too long .
NDII WHICH SCHOOL DID YOU DO YOUR ECONOMIST DO N'T YOU KNOW WHAT IN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT WE CALL PAY BACK PERIOD IF THE RAIL LOAN WAS GIVEN 40YRS HOW DO YOU JUST COMPUTE ON ONLY ONE YEAR LET THE RAIL RICH UGANDA
BETTY ACHIENG if this is the case, then why are we having to pay more taxes???? And 40 years must be such a long time to pay meaning huge amount on interest. Am not an economist though.
WHAT OF EXPENSIVE DEVOLVED UNITS THAT NEED GOVERNOR THEIR MINISTRY PAYING HIGH TAX IS NOT FOR ONLY DEBT BUT TO PAY FOR OVER 47 GOVERNORS MONEY MUKAMI SGR WHEN COMPLETE TO UGANDA IS WHEN IT WILL BE EQUILIBRIUM
MUKAMI PAY BACK PERIOD MEANS HOW MUCH HOW LONG A CAPITAL PROJECT WILL PAY TO ME RAIL IS TO BE PAID WITH 40YRS WHILE NDII JUST WANT BEING COMPARED WITH IN AN YEAR
Hi Betty, the railway was not an urgent need to Kenyans, do a comparison of the freight from Mombasa to the hinterland (imports) against freight from hinterlands to Mombasa (exports), we are a net importer, i've heard that the wagons are empty on their way back to the coast. All that SGR did was to open up/cheapen the logistic supply chain for Chinese products. What SGR will do is flood our market with cheap Chinese goods, the few Kenyans who'll get employed to run the service will think this is a beneficial project while in real sense it's a white elephant. Kenyans will pay through the nose for this useless project.
Ndii is a bright chap but to advise for the Lamu train to still come to Thika is to think like a Central Kenyan. That would be quite silly, rem you want to do a train corridor to Ethiopia, and SS, why would you bring back to the Southern sides of Kenya??? The Southern most part should be Isiolo or even Meru area...if terrain allows...but never Thika.
Borrow $10B to carry cargo for Ug,rwanda and DRC? It's for the same reason you took a loan from a bank to buy a matatu to carry wanjiku,moraa and atieno for a fee called bus fare fool. Takes a while b4 the ma3 pays for itself. Econ 101
@@NobertKiria Government is not in the business of quick profit taking but facilitate economic growth of it's citizens. Infact , it doesn't wanna make any profits at all ! but develop the land. The lunatic express served Kenya for a 100 yrs and they called it the lunstic train going to nowhere(African jungle) hence it's name.Come back after 100 yrs and ask whether it was worthwhile or not. Not after 365 odd days
@@mwangiwathufu4794 let me explain to you like a two year old ,sgr ikiwa imejaa can only carry 8tonnes 8 tonnes of cargo can not pay it's interests only leave alone the loan itself . Unlike normal loans the loan we got from china inalipisha interest on every unpaid month so there is no time we will catch up if we don't pay the interests on the due date its like u take a loan kwa mshwari ya 1k and the interest is 300 and the businesses u invest it in gives u 200 per month . Unless you are a jubilee psycophant you should understand what he is saying
By the way David ndii is an economic professor and the leading economist in Kenya ,iyo econ 101 unasema alisoma akapata first class and he has taught it for over a decade if he tells u something is not economical he cannot be wrong
This guy is asking some good questions, you need best value for money, and not risking the country's economic well being. They are try to make money linking the region together socially, and economically, while making the railway more viable. The chinese silk road trains system would have being more suitable. After the economy develops, it would have being more feasible to buy the fancy trains, you guys like, development should be incremental. Moving cargo and passengers is important, incorporate the movement of the natural resources is much better.
FIRST LET ME CONGRATULATE YOU GUYS FOE THE NEW SGR AND I LIKE YOUR ANALYSIS BUT LET ME MAKE SOME POINTS I see there is no way of analyzing long term projects like the SGR within that very short run and expect positive pyback. Even if it has to pay within a very shortrun, you must draw the CB by considering the quarter life of the project. What is the life time of the SGR and evaluate quartely. I have never analyzed even a very small project even a sukumawiki business with an immediate pay back like the one you guys are after. For that SGR the pay back can even happen in more than 10 years to come and i will not doubt that. The only challenge i see from the Kenyans SGR is the interest which seems to be huge but i still hope politics will play the good role in renegotiating the terms and lessen the interest. Another is the option to go for the diesel run system which means more cost will add up when the decision to upgrade to electrified system. Kenyan SGR is still profitable if you do a bit long run analysis and there is no way you can get a positive payback within the first years. Its just my simple observation.
I like your thinking and a short term analysis of the project does not tell the actual roi of the project. But if the future looks gloomy then you can tell the viability of a project and at what cost. I feel it was a brilliant idea for vision 2030 but the execution is wanting
These guys are just chasing clout.. SGR was mainly to congest Mombasa port and bring the port closer to the land locked countries. They don't have to go all the way to Mombasa now. Uganda takes off the largest and most of our exports, we are just easing ways of doing business. And having fun at it by enjoying the quality Mombasa rides😏
Sanballat and Tobias of Kenya. Time will soon prove you wrong. Ndii is giving the version of the IMF and world bank, who are disgruntled and cannot understand how Kenya has managed to build the SGR without their assistance, in spite of their restrictive sanctions aimed to Slow down Kenya's infrastructural development. Tell your mzungu masters that we have removed the shackles of the west and we are now looking to the east completely. Meanwhile, the project is headed towards completion at malaba en Kisumu. Lapsset will also begin en open up those closed regions of our country. Just relax en watch how God will bless Kenya in the next 40 years to enable easy repayment of the seemingly `huge' loans. With proceeds from the fuel levy, we will build up our own emergency kitty to ensure that we will no longer require to take any future orders from the IMF. The west will completely lose their colonial grip on Kenya and we will transform into a middle income economy in 20 years. Other countries including the same western countries will be making trips to Kenya to try en understand how we pulled it out, similar to the Mpesa product which they have been unable to replicate world over. Ndii should remember that with God, ALL things are possible en he cannot fathom the economics of heaven with his earthly education en knowledge. Watch this space, if you will still be alive 40 years from now, en cut the economics of doom en gloom. Great things don't come easy.
This is another problem Africa will face the ease of communication through the internet has also made it easy to misinform....this guy is short sighted....much as there are issues of inflated pricing and transparency of these projects, Chinese construction labor etc, it is premature to gauge the business case of this project so soon. How can this guy say trucks using the road is not a problem coz they are paying for it? has he accounted for the pollution trucks make to the environment through gas emissions? Who is paying for that? weren't there floods in Kenya recently? That is climate change due the gas emissions by these truck...who paid for the repair of the flood damage?
No. we are SUPPOSED to plan better by engaging all stakeholders, and evaluate all the options and not just take loans that are difficult to service...especially from the Chinese.
NO. We are supposed to do proper research to get the best railway system. And then look for funding at a price that Kenyans can afford, (16% VAT on fuel. Seriously??) - while ensuring that rail cargo is priced below road cargo. In that way, Kenya's economy will grow. But at present - it is an utter disaster. Not to mention the un-needed Chinese racism and influx of Chinese who are running around Nairobi town with all their wierdness. One of them stopped me when I was walking to ask me 'questions'. Some of them are just idlers and you question how they are being let into this country. One has to consider all these dynamics before entering into any infrastructure agreement with another govt.
You all assume that no one was consulted in the construction of the SGR . Have you all forgotten that Uhuru was in the finance Ministry ? Of course evaluaters and analysts were involved . If you look at the government records , you will realize that the SGR has been a long time coming . One of you even suggested that we look for cheaper options and I thought " Seriously ?" When we all know cheap is expensive . Did you want us to get a cheaper SGR that would only last 10 or 20 yrs? And then after that you would be the very same people who would say , " Look ! He built a useless thing and now we have to replace it ." People are so opinionated . SMH . I can see here that whatever he does , people will still raise their noses in judgement . And by the way , we all know that the Chinese are not the best people in the world but I keep asking , who then should we have turned to for financing ? The West ? The IMF ? The world bank ?
Does John-Allan really cares of the figures Ndii throws without asking for justifications/explanations? Public projects are never meant to repay themselves, they are meant to capacitate economic activity. How much does Thika Road contribute to the national purse 0B per year, yet it consumes 1B a year in maintenance, despite it costing 32B At 13:25 Ndii mentions that the TZ line is an upgrade and not a new railway, it is a NEW railway. At 14:40 he mentions of the huge Nickel deposits in Northern TZ, Read --> www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Barrick-Gold--Glencore-put-Tanzania-nickel-project-on-the-market/2560-3426316-yhsj36z/index.html Mining is yet to commence due to falling Nickel prices over the last 10yrs. Single largest Nickel deposits in the world? Wapi sources? He is very right on Public Participation on the SGR
Ndii is a bitter person, trying to undermine the economic progress of Kenya to gain relevance in politics and build face with Kenyans. His schemes failed when baba joined jubilee. Infrastructure build's the economy, retrogressive minds as ndii's is the reason Kenya has never achieved anything in the last 50 yrs.
Ndii is simply stating the truth,SGR is commercially not viable!It is loss- making,grossly overpriced & inefficient, the reason cargo owners preferred trucking!Remember our port has no cargo of its own yet has GUARANTEED China it will cover any deficit in loan repayments, failure to which China will take over running of Mombasa port like was done to Sri Lanka with port of Hamanbato!!!This is the reality you may not be aware of...
This Railway was built at an inflated cost, and then it didn't even terminate at the Ugandan border. Hapa wakenya tulichezwa . . . . Edit: My God we had LAPSET and we let it die for this!!! Enyewe hatujipendi!!!
trade is the issue what is saying making any sense so what u say just because u are living well u want your kenyans to live in poverty. please show by figures so if no train then truck services will be better cost. do make your facts with cost so you say the state run by kenyans are causing rotting of the country. what are you talking of you mean of saying loans of only the sgr so why are the other cost of others that is part of orher services. trucking so what is the cost of the road for running the trucks and justify what.clculations of without facts in paper. you bring down your country u say cannot why do u say that a lot benefits to kenyans seen two down the line. mr why are u saying this are causing country fighting each other. you run the country how will u do it to benefit kenyans.you are a trouble maker for your people and your neighbours country.
