Deep Dive 21/05/2024- Thunder then heavy rain - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

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This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. There are heavy thunderstorms for many at the moment, but the bigger talking point is the intense and persistent rain many will have on Wednesday. We try to clarify some of the details whilst there is still some uncertainty. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

Опубликовано:

20 май 2024

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Комментарии : 123

@sharonsloan 25 дней назад

Thunderstorms are my favourite type of weather, especially at nighttime, when the power goes out so there are no streetlights.

@metoffice 25 дней назад

They are fascinating but can be impactful

@reggawardle4874 25 дней назад

Who are you? Dr Frankenstein..😂😂

@user-li7pp3im6l 25 дней назад

I love the thunder too. And the quiet when the power is out.

@lukemorley7481 25 дней назад

😂😂😂😂😂😂😅

@JW_M 25 дней назад

Thunderstorms are quite cool tbf. The sounds the ligh dhows

@zandered23 25 дней назад

Once a weather event has happened do you check to see which system / method of forecasting was most accurate? Does the software learn from what actually happened

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Very much so. Lots of studies especially on big rvents

@MrCliveado 25 дней назад

Jumping on the back of this, is the accuracy of models increasing over time?

@suewright1299 25 дней назад

Many thanks Alex. My golly it’s going to be a wet one tomorrow, it’s a shame when it’s so heavy after bedding plants have been put in, but one of those things even so. I think I’ll take the rest of the week and the weekend day by day and see how things pan out. Take very great care everyone, especially when driving and especially by bike…be very careful Alex D if you’re on your bike!!! 😮Thanks to the Met for your work 😊

@Debbie-henri 24 дня назад

And I'm worrying about my vegetable plants and worse, the fruit blossoms. The petals get battered to the ground in heavy rain, and I lost all but one of the newly-informed plums in last week's heavy rain. Last year, the prolonged heat cost me much of my crops, this year the rain is doing a fine job on them.

@suewright1299 24 дня назад

@@Debbie-henri You and me both Debbie, we just can’t seem to win nowadays, but even so, I’d far sooner be here than in the stifling heat of so many countries! 🥵 Climate Change means extreme weather and it’s getting that way here!!

@mikewilloughby4164 25 дней назад

Stuck on the Rochdale canal, unable to move because of low water levels so some HEAVY rain would be VERY WELCOME!!!

@peterchapman3740 25 дней назад

get out while you can m8

@mikewilloughby4164 25 дней назад

@@peterchapman3740 I would if there were more water… lol

@pmtreacy10 25 дней назад

From a farmers perspective. 2024 really is the year that just keeps on giving

@yesmate78 25 дней назад

Go farmers

@dd7521 25 дней назад

I appreciate your hard work.

@andy5786 25 дней назад

Thanks met office great deep Dive

@Jake-vh6jp 25 дней назад

Pochettino deserved longer!

@susanb.1113 25 дней назад

Sunny all day here, highest temp 20°, (west highlands of scotland) getting cloudy and cooler now. 1709hrs

@auldfouter8661 25 дней назад

West of Scotland has been extra warm in the last 10 days or so. Garden is getting very dry and a little rain would be OK but it often doesn't stop after that.

@spiritualsenga9250 25 дней назад

Be careful of what we ask for 😂

@caitgems1 25 дней назад

Rain in Greenock earlier

@Debbie-henri 24 дня назад

This is why we need a national pipeline to pump water to where it's needed all around this island. South West Scotland - we had a terrific downpour a few days ago. I'd not seen rain like it.

@janefirn1328 25 дней назад

Growing up in the uk in the month of May regularly had thunderstorms

@nikkia9506 25 дней назад

I went over the Woodhead Pass twice today, and the reservoirs seemed very low for the time of year. The rain's a nuisance, but not quite as much as lack of water. Aside from flooding, of course.

@markhuckerIOwnAClassic-xd6qp 25 дней назад

i can remember lightning hitting a wheely bin once in newport, was amazing, WHAM! instant block of molten plastic and one hell of bang. was one in a million view.

@Goat310502 25 дней назад

Picked Wednesday as a very bad day to be driving from Scotland to NW England - thanks for the update!

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Keep updated with the warnings

@Jake-vh6jp 25 дней назад

Drive safe :)

@darraghgregory1269 24 дня назад

Here in Ireland we've had 5 funnels in the past 2 days and a waterspout in Co Cork on Tuesday interesting to say the least , maybe this is gonna be the norm for everywhere

@ianclark9057 25 дней назад

Interesting DD Alex Tks, the other point I like to make is that we usually experience a few days of cold weather, wintery in the first 2 weeks of May. I can remember snow & grail showers off the North Sea & hard frosts at night here in Kent. Also frost candles being used in orchards & vineyards. I think I'm right in saying there has been no frost recorded this May in Kent apart from a few pockets. Frost was quite usual until mid May.

@mikedestiny4122 23 дня назад

I been an amaruer since 1963. But born in May 1951.for 50 years May has always been the most settled month of my long life. High pressure, around 68%f. No rain, calm conditions. I have experienced today 16 hours of ridiculous heavy rain? But temp today 60%f...Farmers are already warning of crop failure. I mean I used to grow a 1/5th acre of allotment strawberrys in 60s. Waterlogged strawberrys will just go rotten. This is very alarming and just shows that we are now paying a very high price for ignoring warnings of this going back to 1989. I loved my summers in Sussex, but now I sometimes wake up thinking it's mid march😮😮😮

@johnalbertcurtisjc 25 дней назад

Thanks for weather update Alex very well explained 👍

@suechadwick121 25 дней назад

Bury in Geater Manchester has had warm, sunny weather all day today

@blotski 25 дней назад

We have!! But I think it's going to be wet tomorrow.

@garyspringham2655 25 дней назад

I wouldn't believe anything you lot say, I will just look out the window.

@SteveB-yv1ls 25 дней назад

Typically gorgeous spring weather here in this area of central England, plus April despite being a bit off - was nowhere near as below par as some typically want to make it out to be, of course! There was of course still a fair amount of sunshine days both here in this location and in other parts of the country, but people will be people and if it's not 100% perfect obviously only then focus on the imperfect bits - (yawn!).

@georgepointer1127 25 дней назад

Clear sky's and sun aren't weather,

@christinepease890 25 дней назад

Thank you, Alex

@martywig8653 25 дней назад

WOW six inch of rain in a matter of hours will be some spectacul , get the cows in!!!!

@jj8526 25 дней назад

Thanks Alex for the concise forecast..👏👏☘

@waynester71 25 дней назад

Almost June…standard UK weather 🌧️💁🏻‍♂️

@ajburkill 24 дня назад

‘Standard weather’ can still be impactful

@matthewtrow5698 25 дней назад

Alex, do the Met Office keep a historical record of forecasts and how they actually panned out? I'm sure they must do, as that would inform future forecasting - and how accurate a forecast was. A video related to that would be very interesting - an insight into that part of the data which is used.

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Our forecasts are verified, all with the aim of improving

@mattc7713 25 дней назад

Brilliant as always, thanks Alex

@markrowcroft2890 25 дней назад

Really interesting - thanks you!

@martinoban 25 дней назад

Northwest Scotland is desperate for some rain.

@user-li7pp3im6l 25 дней назад

Llanfyllin Powys Wales was gorgeous all afternoon. Gentle rain started 6ish this evening. Good day all in all.

@mikeoehlers6218 25 дней назад

When do you plan, if at all, to return the satellite image (visible, IR and water vapour) to the map base on the web site?

@tonyhall8495 25 дней назад

Excellent!👍🏻😉👏 thankyou for a great update and indepth look on the weather over the next few days

@grim3228 25 дней назад

Great Presenting.

@philipmurphy2 25 дней назад

Always interesting to watch a Deep Dive

@trick700 25 дней назад

How do you assemble the mean temperature for UK to be able to say it’s a record or not please?

@iansingleton 23 дня назад

It's OK going on about temperatures! This May could be the warmest on record! I doubt that very much. Maybe UK wide cos the Outer Hebrides are 1/2 degree warmer but what about the rain? It's still raining! We've had a few days here and there when it's not rained other than that it's not stopped raining for well over a year. We've most definitely had more rain in every month over the last 12 months. I remember the weeks and weeks last year of you guys explaining that the jet stream is lying to the North of the UK allowing the low fronts to hit one after the other. Nothing has changed! It's still raining!

@kevintraynor4508 22 дня назад

In earlier deep dives you mentioned that the Jet stream is very weak at this time of year. Yet how do you acount for all heavy rain and flash floods?

@psychoanalytic 24 дня назад

@metoffice How did we get here from the ten day trend on 15 May, including the multi model probabilistic trend - "nothing particularly wet or unsettled"

@vonlouie77 25 дней назад

Can you do a wind chart on ash fall from campi flegrei super volcano as it seems to have a fit at the moment

@justinwilson3922 25 дней назад

Dam 90mm in Gloucestershire that’s a hell of a lot of rain

@hedgerowpete 24 дня назад

when you did the wed/thurs 50mm rain pictures i am unable to see the green colours, try a better contrasting colour, i am watching on a phone or lap top screen and the details dont work

@HeatherMyfanwyTylerGreey 25 дней назад

Thunderstorms this afternoon in Ammanford, Carmarthenshire, Wales later this Afternoon.

@v6i838 25 дней назад

Do you think amber or even red weather warnings are worth considering in the areas that seem most likely to have highest rainfall amounts?

@metoffice 25 дней назад

They’re being considered. The nightshift will be busy tonight

@martynmurfitt-wrather7555 22 дня назад

Fed up with the rain - we need a couple of weeks of dry, sunny & warm weather to lift the spirits- and then work out a system when it only rains overnight …!

@AwardedGamer 25 дней назад

Will there be an amber warning issued for rain? Thank you Alex B.

@user-to2fz9zx3c 24 дня назад

I would be very interested to know if the wind is getting worse and is the direction getting more varied. It seems to swing around the uk and change direction daily.

@paulmarkman5247 25 дней назад

Thanks again for the informative Deep Dive, Alex. I’m curious to know how estimates are made of how much rain is going to accumulate from tomorrow’s low pressure. Is this a question that is possible to easily answer? Cheers - Paul

@metoffice 25 дней назад

The computer models calculate them…the expert meteorologists then use their great knowledge to fine tune them and work out impacts

@adamcoole 25 дней назад

Does MetOffice have a view on the turbulence incident today...? Is there an increase of turbulence due to climate change?

@PDScally 25 дней назад

Any possibility of providing us with the sea temperatures?

@mikeoehlers6218 25 дней назад

Where is the Ap you mentioned - giving the outlook for the next 14 days?

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Find details here www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/weather-app

@Hiking-The-Great-OutDoors 25 дней назад

Thanks for the vid and Seems an odd direction for a low pressure to come from?

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Usually from the west but not always

@colinsace1 25 дней назад

In south wales Brecon area and it’s been raining quite heavy especially around 7 pm I was soaking but it’s been a really hot nice few days.

@hallstewart 25 дней назад

Did the recent space weather affect the satellites (EUMETSAT/NOAA) that make the data you use?

@peanuts2105 24 дня назад

The technology at your disposal is incredible

@iansingleton 23 дня назад

And yet they still can't get the forecast right! I can do better looking out the window!

@twmegs 20 дней назад

I don’t understand how the average maximum temperature at the beginning of May is higher than the average maximum temperature at the end of May ,surely it should be the other way round?(see graph 16.05 in) or am I missing something 🤔

@JohnlivesontheIsleofMannow 25 дней назад

I love how you completely Blank the Isle of Man guy’s!

@GojosMojo 25 дней назад

I have to do my dofe camping tomorrow, but by the time we get there the rain should have eased a bit.

@chrisa9043 25 дней назад

Quite a lot of thunder storms on the way.

@metoffice 25 дней назад

More now than when I recorded this

@williamcaldwell-smith3865 24 дня назад

But in the far south apparently 😏

@duanestreet4490 25 дней назад

Really surprised to see this May ave temp is coming in this high, it hasn’t felt particularly unusual. I was looking at a climate reanalyses website earlier. I was interested to see where globally is the main driver of the increase (from its climatic average). I was really surprised that it wasn’t either of the poles, it was actually the Tropics, which is staggeringly above the norm from Q2 2023 through to now). Even taking into account El Niño and AGW, the increase doesn’t seem in line. I guess the concern must be the Oceans 😬

@heatherjoy479 25 дней назад

Glad it cooler here going to be a warm 2024 again

@TheRealBancroft 25 дней назад

It would be interesting to compare the cumulative rainfall amount chart as at 20th May, with that of 27th May, next week 🧐

@mlriders3282 25 дней назад

That’s quite a difference in terms of accumulated rainfall compare to what I have seen in yesterday’s week ahead

@metoffice 25 дней назад

It is indeed. Kind of the ‘worst case scenario’ suggested yesterday

@debbiep268 25 дней назад

We had a hell of a down pout this morning, and the temperatures cooler than it has been. 15 yesterday, 16 today and really cloudy. Hoping it does warm up a bit after this wets gone.

@jivejoshmanchester983 25 дней назад

How come no Amber or Red Warnings up yet the area has a huge population and major roads A55 M56 M6 M60 When North East Scotland had this amount it was a Red Warning

@maxwellhope5264 25 дней назад

Kicking off…..

@bobmcdermott9535 25 дней назад

Thanks Alec

@wildlifegardener-tracey6206 25 дней назад

Oh poor bees and other insects just starting to emerge in my garden. Grest deep dive and demonstrated how difficult it is to accurately predict where depressions are going to be. Well it'll be a test for our new roof should it move a little more south. 🌧⛈️

@davewalters6246 25 дней назад

Not only is May way above average temperatures, but year to date for me is currently record-breaking as well (based nr. Birmingham with continuous data since 2008). It's also been rather wet (>1230mm since 1 July last year - way way over measured annual average of around 800mm). Anyone Noah boat-builder?

@Simon-qn5wm 25 дней назад

Horrible weather, can't stand more rain & the disruption from storms. Much prefer clear blue skies, hot & sunny with no winds & crave extreme heat warnings.

@jubileejazz 25 дней назад

We have high and low pressures. Why don't we have medium pressures?

@liddylinski4916 25 дней назад

I hate thunderstorms, so scary

@AwardedGamer 25 дней назад

Will Storm Lillian be named due to the rain?

@metoffice 25 дней назад

Winds aren’t strong enough for it to count as a named storm at the moment

@AwardedGamer 24 дня назад

@@metoffice Thank you for telling me.

@martinarscott3524 25 дней назад

Lots of rain, and it's all my fault cos I just traded my hot hatch in for a convertible - good old British optimism lol

@KarineManukyan-qt1pv 25 дней назад

❤

@nickyfoulkes8476 25 дней назад

Oh dear, you have ruined my childhood beliefs. My Dad told me when I was a nipper that thunder was The Lord moving his furniture. My bubble has been burst. !!!!!

@showme360 24 дня назад

This is not looking good for the farmers crops, as most only want sunshine as they have only just finished planting.

@531c 25 дней назад

Some commentators bawling because some people in UK have had a rainy day in spring, whatever next!

@cycleranger 25 дней назад

Thanks. But next time please don’t use white text on light blue background really hard to read :))

@daveelliott5855 25 дней назад

Thunderstorm around describes it well, Nothing here on the Somerset Levels (yet again) even on Saturday they got to within 6-7 miles heard a couple of rumbles then disappeared, got rain mind. Where have the decent storms gone like we used to get years ago that went on for hours, we barely get a audiable rumble now and no visible lightning when they come over from France as soon as it gets to landfall the lightning and thunder disappears before it gets to us and we just get a soaking. Not impressed, just like the no snow events and constant flooding from October to April, there moaning over 🤣🤣

@gplunk 24 дня назад

Downpour vs. Deluge....

@Conmanthompson2 25 дней назад

It's Going To Be Very Wet On Wednesday And Thursday

@SamsVlogstrainsmore 25 дней назад

Thanks Alex gotta love the rain not lol

@philkfoto 23 дня назад

This is not the Deed Dive, this is just the forecast for 2 days.

@jacksanderson660 25 дней назад

Man skipped over friday like it was nothing.

@metoffice 25 дней назад

😅 transition from the rain to something drier on Friday

@weekendmodeller2740 25 дней назад

More showers kicking off, what like overcome with anger or starting a fight? Where does this weather man come from with his weather kicking off. LOL. 1.08, lol.

@lukemorley7481 25 дней назад

It’s a nasty one