For the old folks, this Hezbollah episode is chapter 23 of a very long book on Israeli wars and conflicts. The brutal fact is that these chapters will be written indefinitely. Peter will be giving updates on middle eastern wars indefinitely. Israel is in the wrong neighborhood = perpetual wars and attacks.
@@fafolaw He is an expert in demography and how geography effects political decisions. Beyond that he has opinions like anyone else. Take them for what they are worth.
Sort of get what Peter Z is saying here, BUT: 8000 rockets displacing 100,000 people is more than a slight annoyance for Israel, and therefore I don't think that what we are seeing is merely sabre rattling. It's a response to significant threat. Additionally: What Israel pulled off in the last week may be a really REALLY significant hit to Hezbollah's command and control, which may be something of a "Once in a Generation" opportunity for Israel. They may think this is the time to go for the Jugular, as it may never get to look a better opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.
a quick back of the envelope calculation shows that those 8000 units delivered based on payload is about same as 2 days of payload delievered to the G strip, give or take a few hours. So yes proportionally, its just a few. Big numbers are hard to understand. You can take a mulligan on this one
A little sensitive? To remind you of the firing of thousands of missiles from Lebanon for a whole year and the displacement of 60 thousand people! in a small and threatened country
@@jmoresnr007 Tell Peter not to overhype Israeli military capabilities. The Iron dome only works when supplied by US tech. The US base in Israel is an anti-missile base with US tech that is superior to Israeli tech (which doesn't work without US support) and which the US won't give Israel. US tech is the best, not Israeli tech. Israel is a weak armed forces that only fights weaklings and carpet bombs civilians.
@@ScooterOnHisWay2024 wow, what triggered you so much? pointing out it was thousands instead of hundreds, and reported by dozens of different outlets. No insider needed. Maybe seek some help for your issues.
Mr. Zeihan, you are quite a bit off this time. The number of pagers mentioned was 3K-4K and not several hundreds. It and the walkie-talkie follow up took out 1K-3K people, mostly from the middle ranks, a lot of it blinding them and blowing up their hands, not just their backside and private parts. Israel was waiting for the White House almost a year to de-escalate, while having 80K-100K people displaced from their homes next to the northern border. It was (and is) time to act, not simply exchange tit for tat with Hizbollah.
@@blacklupos I've said the same of other videos with subjects I am familiar with... So I'm guessing at least half of what he says is either wrong, an underplay, an exaggeration or just a plain old lie.
What exactly is his area ? Been listening to him casually for the last few years and the amount of wrong info he states is only equalled by his confidence (arrogance ?) in saying it. Knows just enough to get by and then wings the rest as if he's some kind of insider.
@@tsubadaikhan6332That’s better than a wasteland that still lives in the “ Islamic Golden age”. That kills you for drawing a cartoon of some religious nut figure. Imagine being killed for some dumb CARTOON.
What's crazy and I haven't heard in the talk about the pagers is that Israel probably knows every single phone number that was paged and thus likely every single person that is involved with Hezbollah, so that level of intel is just wow.
Maybe, but through hospital records not number and ownership records. They were probably owned by a nameless corporate entity and not published in a phone book.
@@richardpurves ya ,seems to have asymptotal results. Mostly do to long incorrect term planning. IDF reduced Total man power by 200k over the last 10 years
@@StephenFlynn-xl2fw It's only in the leftist progressive domains like the Ivy league or fellow travellers that have shown their colors in the last 11 months. You know , that whole "From the river to the sea..." trope. Disgusting.
Lebanon is a poor country. Imagine how it can benefit from building its own infrastructures instead of focusing on a losing war. What a waste of human capital🤷♂️🤦♂️
Lebanon is a Failed State. Their largest source of income is the $300 million the Iranians give Hezbollah every year. They only exist now as a source of more bloody refugees for Europe to look after.
Lebanon back in the Eighties was a place people wanted to go to. It was the cultural, style, & social capital of the Middle East. Now it's far from that, but they could be all of that if they tried.
The Palestinians are born into bondage and will die so. You understand you Jews lived in the ghetto's of Europe. With no "Civil Rights" what do you expect when you run an "Apartheid government".
Vladimir Putin has made it clear in Europe he will enslave Ukraine, Poland, Romania, the Czech republic and Baltic states. A Russian Empire enslaving 300 million people where only Russians have "Civil Rights" and everyone else live in a Russia ghetto that he wants. It ironic that Israel is doing same thing with their own country to Palestinians.
I like that for Zeihan the war in Ukraine is going well, considering that they are losing territory every day and the offensive in Gaza is being a disaster.
One of the lowest quality videos i have seen Peter put out. Several hundred pagers? No, thousands. He also fails to mention that Hezbollah fired enough rockets to drive tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes, describing Hezbollah's efforts as "nuisance attacks". From what I see, Peter needs to skip the military/political current affairs front and stick with economic/demographic issues, where he is masterful.
It's always the same thing, whenever an expert starts talking outside of their narrow niche of expertise; they immediately start sounding silly and misinformed.
He also said that the Gaza operations isn't going well for Israel which is laughable. Hamas has been almost completely dismantled and Gaza is left in ruins. No large rocket barrages have come from Gaza in months.
Peter love, the Gaza campaign has been going great militarily. So much so that the main offensive has stopped in January. Hamas is dispersed and can hardly put up an effective resistance. Of course the hostages are still there, which is depressing, but a separate issue and a much harder objective to achieve.
CORRECTION. Hezbollah hasn’t just started firing missiles into Northern Israel? They have been doing it since the day after Hamas attacked without provocation. If you are really going to comment on something as serious as this conflict then please get your facts right. Small details matter!
Correction, for as long as I can remember in my 50 years they have been fighting off and on. They had wars before I was around too. Let's stop pretending this started the day Hamas started this latest round of fighting. It's been going on for decades. Organized religion sucks.
@@bitkrusher5948 yeah really. Both sides have been provoking each other for decades. And as I see it the Palestinians have some legitimate gripes and grievances. But they haven't responded peacefully, which I understand, and Israel has a right to defend itself. But I don't think they have the right to evict people to start new "settlements" or whatever they say. It's a really complicated situation and I don't pick a side or have a solution. The whole thing is very sad and tragic in my opinion. Both sides are right and both are wrong from my perspective. I think the real problem is religion. It makes the "us and them" mentality very easy to fall into. It's impossible to tell the difference between an ethnic Israeli and a Palestinian. Their DNA is the same. They eat the same foods. The only difference is religion. I don't have one. I believe in a higher power but don't think we understand it. And none is a valid reason to hurt others in my opinion.
Peter, I follow and respect you. I have learned much from you. However, you’ve earned my first downvote. A few hundred rockets? How about closer to 7,000 rockets. Additionally,Israel has had to evacuate over 65,000 citizens since October 2023. I expect more from you.
Yes, More propaganda please, repeat "Escalates....." Zionist master lines. and Never mention number of evacuated humans of Palestine or Lebanon as they are not citizen of your Master state.
Waaah, still trying to play the victim card after 75 years of genocide? No one is buying that anymore. There would never have been a "Middle East problem" if a bunch of greedy invaders had stayed in Europe where they're actually from.
its not the first time he has got things totally wrong, his Australia video for example is total nonsense, not a single thing he said in that video is true.
Its rare that i disagree with your conclusions so wholeheartedly, it may have more to do with short form videos not allowing you the time to expand on your points but i honestly found your assessments here simplistic to the point they could be considered factually incorrect, im a big fan , odd to be in disagreement with you hahah
The problem with handling it like Israel is that you create an entrenched enemy in neighboring countries; which is exactly what happened with Lebanon in 1948 and again in 1967. The conflicts between Israel and Lebanon can pretty much entirely be traced back to the huge numbers of Palestinian refugees in the country.
Israel and Russia has the same "Ethnic Cleansing" and "Apartheid" policies. You recognized them don't you? Jews lived in ghetto of Europe. Born in bondage and dying in such. Now look at you doing the same thing to the Palestinians.
What template are you referring to? Does the template include having your entire economy and defense system propped up by a much larger superpower's tax dollars?
Not "hundreds" of rockets. Thousands. Why would you say hundreds? For 11 months. Also, you didn't mention that hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens have been evacuated from their homes and businesses for 11 months already, due to *thousands* of rockets that have been and still are fired on the north of the country, since Oct 8th. These people need to go back to their homes.
This something you need to understand. Most Jew's hated living in Israel. It not safe and the land is terrible. Only the religious sect of Jew's congregated in and around Jerusalem. When Jews last controlled Israel in first century under King Herod most Jews lived in the Egyptian city of Alexandria not in Israel. That where we made a comfortable living. It only because America is pumping Israel full money and weapon and even then you still don't any real peace and security.
Zeihan has repeatedly misreported these stories. He’s not clear on Middle East history, just US focus. Especially his comments on Yemen not mattering. 😅 Lots about Hezbollah, nothing about Israel’s aggression that CREATED Hezbollah. 🤷🏾♂️🤷🏾♂️🤷🏾♂️
The war in Gaza is going badly? Hamas has lost close to 80% of its total fighting force, all of its heavy and medium weapons and over 90% of its total ammunition, and perhaps 7,000 to 8,000 non-combat members involved in the political, intelligence gathering, logistics and smuggling operations. Plus the destruction of most major tunnel networks and most of the smuggling tunnels from Sinai and it will take over 20 years to rebuild. Hamas has been defanged.
My husband turned me on to your video because he said you were unbiased and spoke facts. No. I heard you tell your subscribers that “Hezbollah has started to fire hundreds of rockets into Israel …” NO. Just NO. Here’s the facts you SHOULD be reporting: On October 8th, in solidarity with the Hamas Massacre on October 7th, Hezbollah invaded Israel - a sovereign nation - and started firing THOUSANDS of rockets into Northern Israel, causing Northern Israel to burn in what’s now a huge environmental crisis, displacing 100,000 Israelis, and killing dozens (more if it were not for Israel’s Iron Dome), including 12 Druze children. For almost one full year, Hezbollah has been firing rockets … almost 10,000 to date. Only AFTER Hezbollah fired close to 9,000 rockets did Israel stage its COUNTERATTACK against Hezbollah by way of the exploding pagers. Get it right or kindly take a seat. Thanks.
What the f, Peter? Hezbollah's been bombing us for 11 months now - half of my extended family have been forced to leave their homes in the north. 8,000 rockets and over that time period, and you call it 'lobbed a few rockets'? Come on, man. I don't get how someone like you who is generally accurate about other geopolitical events can be so ignorant of what's going on in one of the most interesting geopolitical scenes in the world
Has everyone just evacuated? I think for outside folks, something that makes the numbers seem almost unbelivable is that along side the 8000s rockets number is that 26 people have been killed - this isnt at all saying those numbers are wrong, an honest question, because it seems like 26 people killed in a year is almost the same amount of folks who die from hiking accidents in a small state in the US over a year. One death per 300 rockets?
The answer lies within the question... He's not accurate on anything. I remind you that he explained Europe moving to the right as the population aging - no word on immigration! Zeihan isn't the intelectual prophet he wants you to think he is.
Oh no. Sorry. CORRECTION: HEZBOLLAH HAS BEEN ATTACKING ISRAEL FOR 11 MONTHS. and now Israel is making them dance their own music and breaking all their toys. THERE. I FIXED YOUR HEADLINE FOR YOU!
Interesting. So Israel has just been sitting there, hands folded, minding its own business. No particular reason Hezbollah would have decided to start lobbing rockets, no reasons it might openly state for attacking Israel, just Hezbollah is evil terrorists, unlike Israel, who has never done anything like murder Lebanese civilians or commit an 11-mo th long campaign of starvation, humiliation and ethnic cleansing. Do you smooth brains even know how or why Hezbollah was created?
“Iran encouraged Hezbollah to lob a few rockets for cheap PR” - 9,000 rockets and 100,000 inhabitants displaced from the Northern part of the country, not exactly “a few rockets”
Did Peter really just say that Hezbollah started sending rockets into Israel because Iran wanted some good PR and some fundraising?? This is either incompetence/ignorance on an incredible level or straight out lying. Beware of Peter’s analysis people, highly biased towards the western perspective. For anyone interested in geopolitical analysis I would highly recommend The Duran, you won’t find a more nuanced, impartial and accurate channel for geopolitics on the internet. Beware of false prophets out there gentleman, keep wiping the wool from your eyes.
Seconding the Duran for having quality, well-reasoned geopolitical analysis, but their opinions will piss off Zeihan's typical audience due to their strong skepticism of Western geopolitical propaganda and motives.
Oh yea, absolute propaganda from the other direction. Every one of his videos is Russia CRUSHES Ukraine, Zelenskyy GROVELS to Biden type titles. Grow up lol you're as bad as fox news people.
@@willski52 I agree. It’s a good way of putting it actually because Peter portrays himself as a geopolitical analyst just giving us objective analysis on global events. But once you get a deeper understanding of events yourself you realise that Peter’s political biases permeate through all of his analysis, making it difficult to trust any of his analysis. I just wonder if he is aware of his bias and doesn’t care because he believes he is on the right side, or if he is completely unaware of how one sided his analysis is, only he can answer.
The more I listen to Peter, the less I respect him. He plays down the part of Hezbollah. I mean they started the war a day after the Hamas in Gaza, they wanted to kill Jews the same way like Hamas, but IDF was quick to deploy troops to protect the border. Israel cannot let the Hizballah just be on the border, they must be proactive and fight this monsters
Zeihan: "It's not going well for Israel in Gaza." Got it. So, that means it's going really well for Hamas? Seriously? That's like saying in 1945, it's going well for the Japanese in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
It's possible, indeed it's frequently the case that a war is going poorly for everyone. In the case of Gaza it's looking increasingly like the US in Afghanistan, an occupation with no likely win condition and no easy way out. Nobody would claim the Taliban was winning throughout the occupation, but the options ended up being indefinite occupation or ceding it back to them. That looks exactly like what we can expect in Gaza on the current trajectory.
@@Brendan-tx3lg Unfortunately the only win conditions in places like Afghanistan and Gaza are conditions that the west and well most of the world would never accept.
I feel the differentiation between the 'political' and 'terrorist' sides of Hezbollah is disingenuous at best. Does the political side support the destruction of Israel? Yes Therefore they are the same.
Indeed, it often happens that a state and its military support the same goal. Knowing whether a state has both a military branch and a political branch is interesting, independently of my judgement of what their goals are, and therefore, whether I like them. I could understand your point about disingenuousness,... if I could spot Peter implying that the difference matters in some way. Maybe I am blind --- I did not spot anything but descriptive language. So Imma gonna have to respectfully disagree on your call that it is disingenuous. Its descriptive, and that is useful to anyone wanting to understand the world... and its not much more useful than that.
I don't see much point in these videos when even the most basic of facts are wrong, if that's wrong what credibility does that give to any analysis, last video I watched he said there was 3+ million people in Gaza on top of endless other basic errors, now this...
What they are doing militarily is actually the least important aspect of this unending reciprocal loathing. Israel's main achievement has been to ensure the generational conflict will reach down to the next generation. I don't view this as any interpretation of a win.
@@lindabastable3021that was going to happen either way. Have you seen the Palestinian street interviews and the propaganda they raise their children with?
I used to think you were very knowledgeable. Then you started discussing a topic that I'm also very knowledgable about, and realized how 25% of what you say is completely talking out of your ass.
all good but you got it wrong when saying "was not going well for them..." when talking about IDF's operations in Gaza. If it wasn't for its deep caring for civilians it would have completed it long time ago - factually wrong statement mate
Disagree that Israel has done poorly against Hamas. Think about it -- back on the aftermath of October 7th, what were your expectations? Hamas HAD to be essentially dealt with or this would be a repeatable success. You knew they were in tunnels under hospitals and schools and such -- that's their plan. You took them on anyway and a LOT of people died. Also their plan. But now the majority of Hamas are dead and hunting down of the remainder is approaching end stage. And while they experienced huge losses, IDF suffered relatively few. If this is a failure...just how would you have done things to lead to a success? Talk's cheap.
how do you make the people in gaza realize that their problems are of their own making? they could build a paradise next to the sea, if they wanted, but instead they allow hamas/hezbollah/iran to run their country/govern them...
@@xisotopexPeople say that it's xenophobia or islamophobia, etc but when a country isn't interested in industrialization or higher education to improve its country and quality of life dramatically.. what do you call that? They're complacent and hateful and focused on the wrong things. Meanwhile, Indonesia has hundreds of millions of Muslims with a radically different culture than the West or East yet doing amazingly well with their democracy. There's some sort of local deficit in Gaza holding them back in time.
@@xisotopex The Gaza population had no control of anything necessary to sustain life or build- No control of food or water, electricity or building materials. Problems of their own making ...? What planet are you on?
@@freebuilder007 you obviously didnt read and or didnt comprehend what I wrote, not to mention, your comment shows you complete and TOTAL ignorance of the situation there. educate yourself before commenting.
Ive said this before, but this guy always just reads news reports and regurgitates it with his own opinion attached. I never actually heard any real intel from things happening on the ground. I also find it funny how he interjects his opinion from beautiful scenic areas without a care in the world, while people in the region have to actually face the reality of the situation. 😅
you normally seem to be pretty grounded in truth but this vid is pretty bad. I'm not even paying super close attention to the conflict and even i can see the bias and lack of truth. yikes
hey peter, love your videos. What you're missing when you talk about the middle east is the religious aspect of things. theres a lot more into it then "getting the last word"
Seems not fact based though. Typical US propaganda claiming "most of the world considers Hezbollah as terrorist organisation". Even EU considers ONLY the military wing as terrorist organisation, not entire Hezbollah. Even UN does not. Only about 20 countries do: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Hezbollah
Interesting fact; Palestinian refugees have long faced discrimination in Lebanon where they are banned from 39 professions, including in the areas of medicine, dentistry, pharmacy and law. Palestinians have been forced to live in camps in Lebanon for many decades.
I worry that people in the middle east don't teach their children "two wrongs don't make a right". Either that or they all forget it when they become adults.
Another correction: “The Hamas operation” as you call it hasn’t gone badly? What are you on about? It has been slow progress and just about all the key players in October 7th are neutralised.
Right but the objective (according to the Israelis) wasn't the complete destruction of Gaza, it was the dismantling of Hamas, which has had its fighting capacity degraded but continues to maintain popular support. And the return of the hostages, which hasn't had meaningful movement in a while (97 are still in Gaza I believe). Israel is achieving some of its operational goals but the strategic goals continue to seem pretty far away on the horizon.
Gaza is no more, this what "Ethnic Cleansing" look's like. Vladimir Putin has done this as well to certain cities in Ukraine he has wiped out and forced out all the people in certain cities in Ukraine. Don't you know Ukrainians and Palestinians are "New Blackman" of the world. Arab and Whitemen to be enslaved by their new masters.
So Peter, the question. begs. Have you yourself ever been to Gaza? What makes you the expert on who Hamas is and isn't? Funny how everyone is an expert on this topic, yet NONE of them have actually been there. WTF is Americas's obsession with Israel? Ive asked this before. Please explain it. It's a genuine question.
@bronim7311--- It is a financial kickback scheme. The U.S. taxpayers give Israel at least $6 billion per year, some of that money makes it's way back into the pockets of those in power positions in the U.S. government, including politicians, contractors and the real power, "the shadow government people".
Because there are many Jewish people in America and they are in very powerful positions across many industries. These jewish people have strong interest in what happens to Isreal in the long run and strongly identify with that country. They are Americans but very strong well wishers and supporters of the country of Isreal.
Definitely Zeihan’s weakest and most biased point of analysis. Superficial and always tilted against Israel. Surprising considering how sharp and for the most part neutral this man is with regards to other contentious issues. 🤷🏼♂️
@@irona7054 It's a tactic, instill fear. My point was in 2001-2016 all we heard was "terrorist" now they call it militant. Just a nicer way of saying it.
This is why individuals can be terrorists without being part of an organized terror group, and why governments can also be terroristic. It's more of a tactic than a power structure
I read somewhere they heard a couple of guys were worried about the pagers and decided to "use it or lose it". That is about as deep as you can penetrate an operation.
gaza opertation has not being going well for the Israelis? really? that's a spicy take if I ever heard one. Gaza is now quarantined, hamas has been reduced from a militarily viable force to a gang of thugs stealing aid supplies. Almost every hamas leader except sinwar is gone. and the IDF did it with a minuscule number of casualties and inflicted a tenth of the civilian casualties is was projected to. This is clearly not a reasonable conclusion that the gaza war was unsuccessful or somehow problematic for the Israeli side
Like Peter says, "everyone's like to have the last word", so obviously "the last word" is different to different people. Does it really matter? You hear Peter sighing. Different people have different truths and all believe their truth is objective. What's the use for history if it's a story of suffering? I'm subjective, like everybody else, but I believe the objectively best thing to do would be to try to forget misdeeds in the past and try to build a common future of prosperity. It's either that or a continuous story of suffering. I'm not naive though, some people enjoy suffering, especially the suffering of others, and some people enjoy blaming others for problems they are very much capable of influencing.
So this is what gets really interesting because it feels like a lot of what is commented on is a repeat of the tactics and strategies being used for the purpose of military or action. It’s unfortunate that there’s a failure to see ot comment on the more political and ideological reasons forIsrael doing what it does. The perfect example of this is when you mention taking out ammo dumps and rocket sites. Doing so simply because Isriel published the video where they claimed these residential targets where ammo dumps and rocket sites where there has been no third-party intelligence verification
When you become an "expert" by proclaiming, you are one. Remember, China only has 6 years left, everyone...😅. This dude ranks right up there with Dr. Steven Greer...😂. Its good entertainment at least....oh man.
