Thanks Adam. The last time I saw Jeff interviewed he was off to inspect a mine somewhere, possibly to be kidnapped and never to be seen again, so I'm glad you managed to find him.
I keep buying the dips in silver, gold, copper and base metal mining shares. Also in uranium. Due to their choppy performance I have become quite familiar with the sector. Following the old saying, invest in what you know, I've decided to stick with the metals for now and ride the next breakout.....
Do you have any preferences on copper or silver mining companies? I'm a newbie. Just getting my portfolio started. Doing alot of research. What are your thoughts on Hot Chili copper out of Australia?
I want to venture an opinion. Land and gold/silver seem to me to be the most important stores of value historically to protect against inflation (I'm not convinced it's really here yet, but it will come). We are in a world-wide land boom. Could it be that when land peaks then gold will become the next hedge? The fact that it drops when stocks do doesn't bother me; it demonstrates that gold is being sold quickly to meet margin calls so is doing its job: highly liquid and accepted as real money. But when you try to get some on a dip, supply is short (big money gets in first?). Would like to know what others think.
Thank you Adam, for yet again a great guest in Jeff I was actually just down in Cabo, and speaking about premiums. I purchased 10 libertads with premiums of $6.50. I wasn’t happy after the fact. But it’s another 10 in my stack Keep up the good work
Just started building my modest stock portfolio. I'm value oriented and so far I have bought three gold miners and a bit of Alibaba so I think we are on the same page here. I plan on adding a few more miners and staying pretty heavily overweight in that sector for the near future. A bit of pharma and energy will also be added to the mix for diversification though.
@@ProductionJunction1 Sure, but my strategy is to only buy cheap. If I buy something cheap and it becomes cheaper I might add to the position in order to average out a bit and build a stronger position with more safety margin though. I'm not counting anything out but value deals on the US market are hard to find at the moment. If you know of any I'm listening.
Wow. You described my portfolio and strategy too. Biggest positions of mine are miners and Alibaba. So much hate for Chinese tech, so much love for US tech. So much love for Crypto, so much hate for gold and silver. I'm also very heavy on beaten down low pe value companies that have decent prospects, most are more than 50% down from ATH. Buy good value when they are hated assets, slowly sell when they seem over done. Rotate profits into the next hated asset, rinse, repeat.
@@ProductionJunction1 I agree, but have to be careful about which US stocks. 90%+ look overvalued relative to historical values and especially emerging markets. But plenty of overvalued EM stocks, and undervalued US.
I completely agree, but I took this advice and it turned out to be terrible for the last 10+ years. Just compare the GDX vs the S&P on a chart for any time span over the last 10 years.
While I agree with the overall thrust of Jeff's and Adam's comments, investors need to be wary about investing in mining equities. For example, I own stock in Kirkland Lake which is a very solid company financially with lots of gold resources. Out of the blue, the Boards of Aginico Eagle and Kirkland agreed to merge at what I believe to be poor value for Kirkland shareholders. I also used to own Gran Columbia stock, but their board engaged in a series of selloffs of their gold resources on the cheap. Little investors like me can easily get blindsided by the inside major stockholders.
Yes - I agree Martin. I am also a KLA holder and their balance sheet is very strong with good resource. I was amazed when, with no advance warning, they announce a merger with Ag Eagle. That is not a good look from the perspective of their smaller retail holders. Quite annoying!!
I agree that you one needs to be very careful about investing in mining companies because many companies in the space are awful investments. In the transaction you mention, I'm going to disagree with you for a couple of reasons. One, because KL was valued at 1% above what the market was currently valuing the company. Shareholders of KL got a premium, though admittedly a small one. But in addition to that, the two companies have identified 2 billion dollars worth of synergies that they can realize over the next 10 years. That's 2 billion free dollars attributable to shareholders of both companies. Additionally, the merger creates a major mining company that will receive a lower cost of capital which is hugely important in a capital intensive business. KL shareholders will now receive shares of AEM, which is arguably the company with the very best long term results in the industry. Also, AEM shares are very depressed as of late, whereas KL hasn't sold off nearly as much in the past year, so KL shareholders are getting a pretty darn good "exchange rate" in my opinion. And lastly, if KL was going to merge with anyone, AEM was a perfect fit because both companies operate exclusively in tier 1 jurisdictions. Jurisdiction is of utmost importance to a lot of big investors in the sector so if KL merged with almost anyone else, we'd see a lot of selling from big investors who aren't willing to invest in less-desirable jurisdictions.
@@TangerineTravels I am sorry, but you really sound like either a major inside stockholder or someone who is getting paid to respond to KL shareholders who are upset about getting blindsided. Yes, I did read that same Agnico news release that you just quoted nearly verbatim. I am pretty skeptical of tbe $2 billion of projected increased value in the news release .
@@martinjdesmond Instead of replying to the points I made, you call me a paid shill? Nice. If you’re upset with it, just vote against the transaction or sell your shares.
@@TangerineTravels I owned KL for some years and it did well. But shareholders get a lousy deal as KL is a much better performing company then AEM. The shareprice dropped accordingly. It recovered to the pre-spike of sept 27 and i sold my shares yesterday as i already own AEM and don't want more added. I do hope that the merger makes AEM perform better.
Silver mining stocks are dirt cheap because they're so easily manipulated via the futures market. Not only is the silver price easily manipulated but it can be manipulated down to any price in perpetuity.
One thing I recently learned is that markets usually don´t crash from the top. People keep buying the dips, until way later, they realize it´s not working, and we are actually in a bear trend, that is when you get the panic selloff. I´d say we still have a while to go before that happens, in the meantime, metals and miners can easily rallye from here, and not make a lower low, even when markets crash. I guess the best advice, I heard Rick Rule say, is to buy when valuations are cheap. If you can get cheap, take it. If you miss your entry, because you´re hoping for rediculously low prices, you´ll only have yourself to if you miss the boat.
Thanks Adam but stock market is not going to stop. Greed factor is still missing in the market. When everyone come to know market crash and gold will move up then it never happens same.
Palladium has shown what happens to the price when demand is greater than supply, and Bitcoin has shown what happens to the price when enough people believe the price will continue to go up. Both these factors are presently missing in the precious metals markets. Hopefully one of these price catalysts will emerge in the not too distant future.
Since the majority of the miners are in Canada, I wonder if it would be more advantageous for an American to buy stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange, or does that just add currency volatility and high tax risk.
It would be illuminating to compare and contrast, the earnings and share price multiples, of say Agnico or Newmont, with some other names, in other sectors?!
The difference between now and the 70s are debt levels. I believe that these levels of debt are highly deflationary, not inflationary. The reason is that it is unsustainable. The FED government MUST have low rates to survive ... so it is not an option to them. They will have to get inflation under control to do that. The only way to get inflation under control is to stop or drastically slow debt creation. Therefor, I think it is likely that the monetary stimulus will end soon. That is deflationary, not inflationary. However, once deflation sets in and the markets crash then it is likely they will do a Weimar. IMHO
ADAM -THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING "JEFF CLARK" ON - YOUR LAST GOAL IS TO HAVE "EGON VON GREYERZ" OUT OF SWITZERLAND ON !!! -"HE HAS HAD IT ALSO FIGURED OUT FOR A "LONG LONG TIME" !!! - "EGON" "OH SO CALM, COOL & COLLECTED" !!! - SORT OF LIKE JEFF CLARK & MIKE MALONEY !!!
it is cheap for a good reason. Lots of fortunes are lost in mining stocks for most retail investors Long term ROIC is among the lowest in the business, only airlines and Electric Utilities are worse. So stay away from this segment if you lack a personal edge and do not believe it is easy. Nobody knows what gold prices will do despite all the guru talk. I only use physical gold as small % hedge against inflation but in essence do not like it as it does not produce cash flows. A lot of macro is 100 % speculating for entertaining purposes, all serious investors stay away from predicting the markets because we can't. Create a portfolio that can deal with serious setbacks in the economy because we know for sure stocks drop 50 % every then and now. Thanks for the content Adam.
You're correct. Wanted to keep this discussion laser-focused on the metals. But in retrospect, perhaps I should have asked him. Will do next time he's on.
Just curious why you all did not mention manipulation since it is a proven fact that it is occurring and surely a part of the reason why gold and silver prices are not much higher. Suppression of price surely causes suppression of Interest in the precious metals.
All is good in theory, but in reality with bitcoin and other cryptos these metals became just another commodity Nothing more. So, as commodity they really do not perform that well. In my opinion, industrial metals is way better investment now and in the near future. After all, it is not 1974.
If an undervalued asset remains undervalued into perpetuity, is it truly undervalued? Can an asset be an inflation hedge if nobody realizes it's an inflation hedge?
The entire point of value discovery is to find value in things before the majority warm up to them. People that don't like it just go chase the hottest stuff today.
@@dannyz955 in most scenarios dividends provide a reassurance of value at the end of the day (i.e., XOM @ 6% dividend yield. It doesn't really matter whether others buy that or not, your cash flow stream is the same). The problem with gold stocks is that dividends again depends upon investors (and central banks) wanting to buy a somewhat arbitrary asset (yellow metal).
Thank you… although sometimes I feel that the questions are too long-winded and hard to follow. The answers too. I do like this channel and subject matter though.
Welllll Fed may fight the crash by guarantee everything (again). Once crossed the Rubicon what's $10T to backstop facing evaporation of tens of trillions? Japan has shown the way I'm afraid.
Worst asset performance since last 2 years... Same comments then and same comments now... its coiling.... sit on your seats while other are making money... follow the charts over your emotions!
I like that they're dirt cheap to accumulate more... just hope they don't get much dirt cheaper or my wife will kill me hahah. At least the dividends are something nice to point to until the real pay days.
