Does China Lie About Its Economic Statistics?

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Over the past 30 years China has experienced perhaps the most impressive economic growth of any country in history. But these impressive growth numbers all come from official government statistics bureaus. How much can we trust the official statistics?
0:00 - 2:22 Intro
2:23 - 3:09 Morning Brew
3:10 - 6:12 Precision versus accuracy
6:13 - 7:14 China's data collection problems
7:15 - 8:40 Measurement difficulty
8:41 - 10:49 Cooking the books
10:50 - 12:35 Alternative data
12:36 - 16:15 Limitations of alternative data
16:16 Economics explained national leaderboard
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15 май 2024

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Комментарии : 1,3 тыс.

@MoneyMacro Год назад

Hey EE thanks for the shout-out, which you really didn't have to do since I do not have a monopoly on topics :)

@an-eios7125 Год назад

Wen Collab? xD

@stevk5181 Год назад

As someone who has taught chemistry for the past 5+ years, thank you for going over precision vs. accuracy, and significant figures! Nice to see it being used outside of the traditional sciences. Edit: precession to precision

@jameswalker366 Год назад

“Precision”, to be precise.

@jeffarmfield2346 Год назад

I was thinking the same exact thing, I love it 😂

@barryraymond9004 Год назад

The one thing that I learned in Chemistry I still use is precision.

@EconomicsExplained Год назад

Thanks StevK - much appreciated!

@jerodwolf5582 Год назад

@@jameswalker366 *slaps knee so violently that it dislocates the patella and causes damage that will take years to recover*

@jaredspencer3304 Год назад

One caution with the "GDP per capita" numbers is that China is basically multiple countries in one. If you look at the coastal provinces (Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangdong), they have a GDP per capita similar to other advanced economies, especially if you adjust for PPP. Whereas the internal provinces have GDP per capita that hover around the poverty line.

@Luke-xv7xo Год назад

You'd think that would be common sense since it works the same way in most countries, like Australia and the US for example. Economic activity is focused around major cities on coastlines and always has been, with numbers generally ramping down as you go inland.

@icouldntthinkofaname379 Год назад

@@Luke-xv7xo BIG difference between the US urban/rural divide and the Chinese urban/rural divide, literally two separate worlds in the latter case. Rural areas are basically stuck back 50 or 60 years behind doing subsistence agriculture.

@Luke-xv7xo Год назад

@@icouldntthinkofaname379you're just saying the same thing as OP lol, like yeah there's a clear distinction but it still works the same way. cities = money, rural = a lot less money, it's universal.

@davidconsumerofmath Год назад

@@Luke-xv7xo it is even worse in China because of their internal passport system

@Thetarget1 Год назад

@@iamsheep Nope, for example France has Paris as its wealthiest region, and Germany has the Ruhr area as its economic motor.

@madcow3417 Год назад

5:22 For the love of god, please don't round it until you get to the final answer. If you're rounding at every step then you will potentially have huge errors.

@menotfunnyclips8982 Год назад

well every gdp in every country always fake statistics always lie

@Unsensitive Год назад

Fermi problems/approximations are good for setting upper and lower bounds, usually within an order of magnitude when full data sets are not available to answer a question. a classic example is _"how many piano tuners are there in chicago."_ Or _"how many cups of water are there in a bath tub?"_ Physicists and engineers often use them to make quick approximations, but are under no delusions they are to be used for real calculations when those are required. Not what you are referring, but still something I recommend familiarizing if you are not already.

@greenredblue Год назад

I think that one thing this video makes clear is that economists - even large, important organizations of them - aren't necessarily good statisticians. :)

@Wizzy959 Год назад

You can round off like that when - with the data itself - it is not possible to be so precise, which makes it more inaccurate to not round it off. Also, he is not talking about every step, probably just the answer. But for the most part you're right ofcourse!

@jaycie5021 Год назад

No you actually should. Rounding to the millions place when you are talking about trillions is just a bad move. Rounding to the billions place means that the real number is within a half billion more or less, The error is at most .05% or if you compounded it 100 times a range of 95.12%-105.13% of the actual figure. That is far better than the acceptable amount of error in the methodology.

@n3ffo Год назад

4:15 Hey mate, just to let you know it's not the measurement techniques. The difference between IMF and World Bank is because they are two different years (EDIT: it's actually three). The IMF figure you are reporting is the 2022 year, World Bank is 2021. There are global standards involved in measuring GDP, aka the 2008 SNA and they are the same for both that's because they are not doing the measuring, they are using the data collected by the statistical agency for that country. In Australia's case that's the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Differences are more likely due to the conversion to USD (using end of period, or average conversion rate, or whatever) and/or the conversion from financial year to calendar years, rather than anything measurement related. The calendar year conversion is important, because Australian annual GDP is reported on financial year basis, aka July-June.

@92Vreid88 Год назад

To jump on this, the IMF 2021 GDP for Australia is 1,640,000,000,000 (USD) vs world bank 1,542,660,000,000 (USD). The United Nations only has data for 2020 which as of today (because currency conversion) was 1,357,719,625,710 in current US dollars

@n3ffo Год назад

Yep good pick up and what's important is that's not really comparing apples with apples, as 2021 figures published in 2022 will include revisions to include latest data (the whole time series will be revised). If you Wayback machined it it may be even closer.

@n3ffo Год назад

Oh and of course the reference year for current price is different

@criessmiles3620 Год назад

Difficult to accept defeat From west Africa 🦅

@RoderickJMacdonald Год назад

Finally someone points that out. If we want to be serious in using data, we need to understand how they are generated. Economics suffers from people that have fancy discourse but don’t really understand.

@ChocolateMilkCultLeader Год назад

Respect to EE for shouting out M&M, given Joeris criticisms of EE. Big dog stuff. Both channels are top tier and share content that has helped me learn a lot. One of the few channels in the space I recommend to my readers and viewers

@Homer-OJ-Simpson Год назад

Great channels. EE is more basics of economics and Money and Macros tends to go into more complex or deeper discussions. They compliment each other well in that I can use EE to learn the basics such as how some economic data is measured and have that measure explained to me in layman’s terms. Then with M&M I can learn more in depth about some single news topic.

@entwist_ Год назад

Saw m&m's vid when it first dropped and was really happy to see it get the shout out. One of the reasons this channel is top 3 for me.

@derrekvanee4567 Год назад

Whoa m and m? Meat heads and muscles?feature

@joaocustodio7705 Год назад

@@ArawnOfAnnwn He is adding content though

@Homer-OJ-Simpson Год назад

@@ArawnOfAnnwn no he’s not. Given how long before these videos are planned, it’s likely EE started this before M&M released their video. And they discuss different things. M&M is almost entirely discussing the light study while EE only spends a small portion of the video on it and is mostly discussed the economics 101 of how data is collected and issues that might arise as well as other indicators that might be used as well to help verify the government data.

@sarthakp Год назад

A very informative video. Your production quality has only been heightened since I started following you, glad to see it!

@draker769 Год назад

I mean number can be made up but if you live in China, you can see the life change so fast, my parent started out studying under no electricity now travel the world in a whimp. 2 decades ago, people with car consider rich now they just a normal thing.

@alfredlear4141 Год назад

It's been a remarkable transformation. Apparently China have poured more concrete in the 21st Century than everyone else in the 20th Century.

@raoplns Год назад

Even after correction as suggested, china still did pretty well....so concur on your observation

@sleepyjoe4529 Год назад

I mean anyone who has been to China a few times know they went from bicycles to highspeed trains to a freaking space station in just under 30 years.

@Commievn Год назад

Yes and many families own multiple homes.

@00x0xx Год назад

@@Commievn yes, that multiple home issue is what’s causing a global real estate crisis right now.

@whatsup3519 Год назад

Pls, make video on private colleges vs public college. The economical advantage, and disadvantage of such systems.

@jono_ok Год назад

Let’s play EE Bingo! ✅ ‘So what is going on here?’ ✅ ‘You know what?’ ✅ ‘With that out of the way’ ✅ ‘Well, yea/no/maybe/maybe not/yea nah/nah yea/what is there to say?’ ✅ ‘Stability and confidence’ ✅ ‘Money printer go brrr’ ✅ ‘We have covered the topic of X before’ ✅ ‘Hmmm’ ✅ ‘BUT!’ ✅ ‘Nobody can predict the future, least of all economists’

@penonpaper3132 Год назад

😑

@randallmartin3218 Год назад

💲💲💲

@jamesg2382 Год назад

Thank you from Sydney, always clear and educational. Much appreciated

@TheGergein Год назад

One of my favorite channels I would really like to see this channel/ videos uploaded to rumble as well

@belfigue Год назад

This was a much needed video (at least for me). Thank you EE!

@Sheblah1 Год назад

Perhaps when checking GDP we can reasonably treat trailing zeros as a measure of imprecision/inaccuracy/incompleteness of the figures.

@Bdickey Год назад

each additional zero is less significant than the previous so not sure why that matters.

@Heathensauce Год назад

I commented on a comment guys!

@Sheblah1 Год назад

@@Bdickey what I mean is (more precisely :)) perhaps it is reasonable to interpret a string of zeros which terminate the figure as indicative of deliberate rounding due to lack of precision/accuracy/completeness or honesty

@Bdickey Год назад

@@Sheblah1 I get your point however if we consider the inverse, let’s say they had every digit down to the cent represented, I don’t think that’s an indication they’re Indeed more accurate results. If anything just seems like they’re naive to think they could even be capable of results that accurate. It’s just an understood margin of error and when the scale is so large it’s just arbitrary to try to track amount that are less than 1% of the total,

@tomlxyz Год назад

It's not even possible to calculate gdp beyond certain precision

@SOMEONE-eq5bu Год назад

this video was quite educative for me great content as always

@archiegeorge3969 Год назад

Great content as usual

@StanfordChiou Год назад

Overstatement of output was a major cause of the Great Leap Forward.

@jimcronin2043 Год назад

During my career in manufacturing I learned that it is unwise to use the same statistics (eg freight car loadings) to measure a condition or trend and also to measure an individual''s or group of individuals' job performance.

@gebys4559 Год назад

Especially if you were caught shipping empty containers...

@beetleshlimp Год назад

Thanks for uploading it to spotify

@hippodackl1521 Год назад

Great content! Love your videos.

@desmondlau4632 Год назад

A licensed accountant working for one of the big real estate developer once told us , even if he spend no money at all , he cannot afford one of the condos the company is selling. The condo is 2 mil HKD , roughly 263k USD , so you can imagine the real situation there. And he is already considered a "middle-class" there. And that was 2018.

@veibae2501 Год назад

This is false news. It is true that many people can't afford to buy houses, but houses in Hong Kong are not as cheap as you say.😅

@tsuchan Год назад

Thanks very much for your very interesting videos. I guess your podcast-versions are only available to subscribers of Spotify? By the way, I often look to see if your channel has appeared on Nebula, but nothing so far... isn't Nebula a great platform for your content?

@djinn666 Год назад

Nobody who calls themself a scientist would use a single data point to draw their conclusion. The light level data is just one point. It's highly dependent on a lot of factors, cultural, political and economic. You must have other data points to tease out the contributions of each factor. For example, a culture which values privacy and builds high-rise residential buildings would be dark, because illumination would be hidden behind curtains. You'll only observe the exterior lights, which won't light up the entire building, just the gardens and walkways on the ground level. So a 6 story building any brighter than a 3 story one, even if it houses twice as many people. Someone who cares about the real numbers (rather than writing an attention-grabbing headline) will confirm their findings by looking at the amount of power produced or transmitted. If you don't have official numbers, then look at the number and types of power plants, power lines, and transformers. Going a step further, you can check *those* numbers by looking at oil, coal and gas extracted or imported for thermal plants, and weather data for hydroelectricity. So on and so forth. It's easy for China to fake one set of numbers. Much harder for them to fake all of the numbers in a way that still made sense. This is how audits are done. They don't have a time machine to go back and check what actually happened, they just check if *all* of the numbers match up.

@astrahl Год назад

Love your channel bro! Would love if you could keep making comparative videos for current state of future economic projections as things change over time. I think the biggest thing id like from your channel is being able to assess future market growth projections. If you did this annually that would be great.

@C.R.A.B Год назад

Could you make an analysis of Poland's Economy? I remember that a few months ago it had the 2nd highest inflation in Europe (behind hungary), and I wonder how the country is doing now. And also i am curious where would Poland rank on your National economy leaderboard

@robertagren9360 Год назад

Inflation is simple. Look at how much money your wage increased. When it increases we gain money. This is inflation. Over time as people gain increased wages the inflation increase which means we get money to import goods. When we import they're able to print more money. Countries with exporting industries export inflation. You just work to get money to buy their goods. That's why production is a macro economy and why one country do not have a certain inflation. They just made money to make them spend more money. The more inflation = oversupply of goods.

@sebasti02 Год назад

great video, now i really really want one about germanys economy, with the ranking at the end of course :)

@hapukurk6664 Год назад

You make great content, but could please do a video on Estonia!

@mitotakjde9763 Год назад

Would be cool to see you rank Czech Republic, some things are awesome, but other things are so bad that they completely negate the good. I think the score would be way below 5, as the growth would get probably 1 point. We just reached the point of being developed economy, but started stagnating immediately after. Its also due to lack of workers, as companies refuse to expand, because getting additional workers is close to impossible. Luckily lot of Ukrainian refugees came here and hopefully a lot of them will stay. Its so bad that on some possitions,you have to keep a person who doesn't work properly and even annoys coworkers as there is noone to replace that person

@KrysFG Год назад

Czechia is in a difficult position, too poor to complete with Germany, too rich to compete with Poland 😅 industry wise I mean

@florencebaendes2853 Год назад

Czech Republic is in a bad shape for sure. you can see the real estate prices are too high compared to income levels with high inflation

@derrekvanee4567 Год назад

Provly right where cansda is... Good country really sketchy gvnt pocketing money and keeping power with friends

@ArawnOfAnnwn Год назад

Funnily enough Russia wants those Ukrainian refugees to stay as well. Outside of Ukraine that is. Ukraine was already facing a population crisis even before the war, so the less capable its economy is the more of a liability it would be for its new friends.

@koushikdas1992 Год назад

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Why don't you have enough population in your own!? Can't you breed and feed your children, by the way?

@nicolocadamuro9988 Год назад

Great video! It would be interesting to have a video on the whole EU economy and how you would rank it!

@Promethalus Год назад

Have been waiting for that for ages also. Starting to get really tired of all these rankings putting thing past germany or france, whilst the eu is an economic bloc

@derpysean1072 Год назад

Yeah, and America also. Everyone's on their bubble, it's just the matter of whom will pop first.

@vivstar3 Год назад

Where can i find the complete Economics Explained Leaderboard till now?

@Phoenix_BD Год назад

Did u ever do a vid about Luxembourg love your videos and would love to see one of that small nation.

@bolt5564 Год назад

Please put your sources in the description of the video. That way it is easier for us to go back and look at them.

@erickf2503 Год назад

12:00 I appriciate that you bring the method of using nightlight data for measuring the economy into this video. Despite several flaws, using nightlight data can still be useful in the region with limited amount of data needed for the research. My bachelor's thesis supervisor is actually using this in measuring economic impacts of ports in Indonesia and also in measuring the impact of highway on suburbanization (both are already published into the journal).

@nikoladd Год назад

The light pollution method of measuring GDP was meaningful 20y ago, but now is way out of whack. For example I live in Bulgaria, in the EU. On a recent night photo of Eastern Europe from space showing how dark Ukraine is (due to Russian terrorism) compared to countries around it, I noticed Bulgaria is also relatively darker compared to say Serbia. Except Bulgaria has higher GDP then Serbia so why would it be darker. Well electricity is way more expensive in Bulgaria then in Serbia and also Bulgaria has had access to EU infrastructure funds, so the vast majority of the lighting infrastructure in Bulgaria has been upgraded in the past 20y to be directed down(where it matters) and be energy efficient(LED lamps etc.). There is this situation that the poorest country in the EU may have one of the most efficient night lighting networks in the EU, precisely because the incentive was higher to update those resources so they won't cost much. I would imagine that different regions of China would have vastly different lighting development level too.

@codemaster1759 Год назад

You also need to look at population density. China has high population density.

@metalvideos1961 Год назад

o you are a western shill as well who believe the west when it comes to ukraine. ofc you do.

@nikoladd Год назад

@@metalvideos1961 well yeah for one because Kaputin lies a lot. Not sure why you'd trust people that lie to you, but I generally don't.

@Ilovecruise Год назад

Well, I think since the reform of China, energy is the bottleneck, therefore most of their street lamp are in fact directed down with a very strict standard on its dispersal and energy efficiency, in addition to restricting the brightness. (Needless to say, LED were used)

@douggggggg Год назад

thx for making this

@litchgath Год назад

Thanks for the video EE

@TheSimondude Год назад

Really great video, as always. I would like to se a collaboration between EE and M&M, i think that could be fun or maybe just EE making a vist on the M&M talks. And one more thing I hope you see this EE. I would like to see Denmark (I'm Danish) on the country leader board list. You have talked about all the other nordic contries (Island, Sweden and Norway), I know we a not Norway (But it's our oile "national joke"). Anyway keep the good work, I really enjoy your video's :D

@padiau78 Год назад

I love your videos! They are super informative and so well explained. Have you considered making a video about the 4-day work week, why we don't have it yet, and how it could be achieved? I cannot understand how all the technological advances over the last ~50 years have not resulted in a reduction of work hours and find it interesting that this topic does not get more attention.

@noel7777noel Год назад

Because your boss needs a space hotel or a bigger yacht. How about the passive income people want to avoid work. Its simple math; My rent was raised (by my passive income landlord avoiding working) this month so now I need to work more hours. The 1% work less ~ the 99% work more.

@icypeanutpolo Год назад

Regarding the section about light emission correlating with economic output: that’s actually not what the paper says. The idea is that GROWTH of light output over time is highly correlated with economic growth, and thus you can use it to determine whether someone is cooking the books regarding their economy. There is not much room for discretion on this one, as it just compares historical nighttime maps to make approximate guesses about the amount of growth a country has experienced.

@brexistentialism7628 Год назад

Great video! Well done

@BramHeerebout Год назад

The highway traffic junction at 1:29 is not China, it is the Wat Salud interchange in Thailand, south east of Bangkok. Not really relevant to the story perhaps, but although I really live this channel, I regret it never actually shows actually interesting footage. It is basically a podcast that is more expensive to make but perhaps with a bigger audience than when just published on i tunes. [Edit] and then in the very last minute he plugs his new Spotify channel lol. I didn't know that, but given what I wrote above that makes perfect sense 😄

@kashtech835 Год назад

Another great, informative and easy to understand video! Not to mention the best one I've seen yet explaining China's GDP, using level headed tone and without bias or inflammatory language found in most content about China.

@kallashnykov Год назад

This video is far from informative or accurate. It's a bunch of cheap propaganda that no real economist would believe lol.

@pondie5381 Год назад

I can only see bias in this video

@itsgonnabeanaurfromme Год назад

@@kallashnykov all your comments are pro-communist anti-western brainwashed nonsense though

@Ragtags Год назад

When did you do the USA on your little leaderboard! I missed it. I've missed a few but there's an episode I'd like to watch

@jeremiahhandcock1795 Год назад

Good work!!

@incurableromantic4006 Год назад

Fair to say that every government lies about its economic success to some degree - but when there's no opposition or critical media: those lies can go uncorrected and unchallenged.

@FrozenBusChannel Год назад

That's why freedom of the press is important, and that's why there's next to none in China

@NadeemAhmed-nv2br Год назад

@@FrozenBusChannel i mean if the new calc are to be believed, then china GDP per capita would be lower than India in PPP terms and anyone that's visited both nations knows that's just absurd, the diff is b/w 1st and 3rd world. even the rural areas of china have a better infrastructure,power, standard of living, and cleanliness than metro Mumbai which is India's powerhouse

@Bk6346 Год назад

You have to travel to China and see their buildings, hydro dams, subways, shopping malls, roads and airports. See how much it costs to buy food and fuel for your car. Seeing is believing.

@jaybee4577 Год назад

This is the opposite of what happens in African economies. African countries have problems with getting accurate economic measurements. I remember Nigeria’s GDP almost doubled in 2014 because the government didn’t keep up with the economic data for years. Ghana had a 50 percent jump in GDP, Tanzania, Kenya also had high increase in their gdp rebasing. African government don’t like to acknowledge their economic growth so they can get more financial assistance from foreign countries.

@AndRei-yc3ti Год назад

Who told you there is no opposition or critical media?

@SaltyMeatHook Год назад

I understand why China was ranked so high now. You use the same data sets for everyone. This question had been on my mind. Good video.

@zim2023Dwl 9 месяцев назад

Regardless of the GDP figure, the most important part for people is : 1. living standard improvement; 2. diversity of goods or services; 3. food security 4. access to school/education level 5. medical care 6. safety concerns 7. sustainable progress

@Bulgarian021 Год назад

VERY nice, I liked this one

@nilo44 Год назад

Thanks for being a grounded source of information

@EconomicsExplained Год назад

More than welcome!

@tankart3645 Год назад

12:00, in some countries like Estonia, there are stuff like ligth standards, that are there to cut down on ligth pollution. Cities are criticised when they are too bright, or when they for exemple have too many street lamps on when they are not needed. You can see it sometimes in Estonia when walking on an bigger streets how one moment every 3rd streetlamp is on, and then when it gets darker, it changes to every 2nd streetlight. This though can depend on the city, I see this a lot more often in souther Estonia than in Tallinn, the capital that doesn’t follow the ligth pollution standards that carefully as some other places.

@Lawrence330 Год назад

I wish that we had that. We have a large amount of poorly designed lamps that create what I like to call "stray light." It's streetlights that shine directly in your eyes, meanwhile the road is still poorly illuminated. Or porch lights and building entrance lights without shades, that cast light in every direction. Lighting design is important, because proper lighting means that you need less of it, and that saves money AND energy. Good night vision (in your eyes) can't develop if you're always looking directly into lights. Unshaded lights, poorly-designed streetlights, and modern cars with undimmable screens as dashboards all contribute to what Car and Driver once called "Dazzle Dunces." We can't see well, so we just add even more light!

@sor3999 Год назад

"light pollution" huh yeah if you want a crime spree sure have it go dark at night or unless you live in a cushy suburb.

@tankart3645 Год назад

@@sor3999 less ligth doesn’t directly mean more crime. Crime is an outcome of many different factors. I bet that when people think about streetlamps in Estonia, crime is one of the last things they will come up with, as Estonia has one of the worlds lowest crime rates (top5 or something). Reducing the ligth pollution doesn’t directly leade to more crime, but reducing the standards of living for people, making them feel like an lower class, by for exemple increasing the ligth pollution around the area where they live, has an bigger likelihood of increasing crime than the first option.

@SmashGhost Год назад

At th 5:00 mark the use of Precise and Accurate gets lost. The World Bank etc. CAN be precise down the nearest million - in fact they have - but the number being this precise can give users of this information (not "data") the wrong impression of *accuracy*

@MagicMike_101 Год назад

Always great quality videos. Congrats. But the leaderboard isn't the best source. Few weaks points. Let's stick with something more standard, such as the competitive report.

@menotfunnyclips8982 Год назад

can you make all fake gdp comparison between country like japan usa china ireland england etc?

@kazj1728 Год назад

Regarding precision: Its amusing that Olympic gymnastics are scored to a thousandths (.000) of a point, yet Olympic running events are only measured to a hundredth (.00) of a second. Apparently personal opinion can be measured with more precision than something as finicky as time. 😂

@itsgonnabeanaurfromme Год назад

You're using points vs seconds. Completely different things. Getting times that are the same to a hundredth of a second is highly improbable and would likely not make a difference. But getting averages that would be close to a thousandth is possible and easy to measure.

@Epidombe Год назад

Im not sure if this is common, but vaguely remember seeing that china includes all overseas projects, including belt&road initiave, and even OFW.

@TheDanieldineen Год назад

Good man for shouting out money and macro! 👍

@Rohit-vc6kd Год назад

-9999 social credits

@TooManyWilliams Год назад

Awesome video! Do you think you will respond to Money in Macro's video about China's GDP being up to 50% lower? Edit: Welp... I feel like a clown. Didn't realize you mentioned it later in the video lol

@Wilian_Villanueva Год назад

¿Valdrá la pena hacerlo? Ese estudio es muy ambiguo y se puede desmontar con muchos contra-argumentos... Al final no cambia el hecho tangible que representa la poderosa economía China(de lejos más importante que la Japonesa y Alemana)

@tonyazzaro9593 Год назад

@@Wilian_Villanueva Something tells me you're South American.

@user-cf9tl9lk5g Год назад

@@Wilian_Villanueva jajaja bro por que respondes en español de repente

@Sentient_Blob Год назад

@@Wilian_VillanuevaThe study apparently accounted for a lot of potential variables. Not saying that all variables were accounted for or that all of them were accounted correctly, but even if we’re giving a lot of leeway to china it’s gdp is still probably like 40-30% lower than reported. That makes all the problems it’s facing worse and it weakens it’s stance against the US

@victorye7150 Год назад

The US don't think so. Otherwise they won't be so paranoid about China.

@chat-1978 Год назад

I've been trying to find the video where the leaderboard is explained. How do you get to the numbers. Its often part of the videos but there is no link or mention of its defintion. Unless I'm blind I don't see it in front of my face.

@zuggernautz Год назад

Thanks, mate!

@SleepTightFroggy Год назад

Great video that provides important insights on the background to this question. The two sources used are well researched, however I do believe they only show one side of the story. China’s GDP is extremely complex, and you can find just as much research papers supporting that it is actually bigger than official figures. A 200 page research paper published from the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that there are key areas within the calculation of GDP that China does not align with international standards (specifically inputted rent) which results in total GDP to actually be ~12% understated. This paper also makes reference to your first paper from Holz. Source: CSIS, Broken Abacus (AUTHORS Daniel H. Rosen, Beibei Bao; FOREWORD Carsten Holz) Another example is by the National Bureau of Economic Research published in 2017 which uses the same method (Night time lights) as the second paper you referenced, and concluded that China’s GDP is also understated. Source: NBER paper w23323 (Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin) There are plenty of other well researched papers that support this, and all this is not even getting into the topic of PPP (which the CIA notes is the better measurement of China’s economy), and puts China well ahead in GDP rankings (and is already the largest economy in the world) Source: Any CIA factbook website footnote on China PPP vs GDP Overall I think this video is well researched, but the topic is much more complex. There’s an ocean of research on this topic that argue both sides with plenty to dispute the assertion that China is inflating GDP figures, so the conclusion made that China’s GDP is only $9 Trillion is an extremely unlikely. Great video overall.

@michaelgray1223 Год назад

The truth hurts right ? 9 Trillion sounds about right.

@steffengustavsen9678 Год назад

@@michaelgray1223 they are 1.4 billion people and same electricity consumption per capita as Germany and Denmark. They consume more electricity then EU, US and India combined. they might be same as the US or a little lower but far from under half the size of US economy. They also buy about 60% of electric cars in the world.

@user-or9yq8bn7w 9 месяцев назад

@@michaelgray1223中国的汽车销量比美国和日本和印度和德国加起来都要多，😢是的，真相确实很可怕。。。。

@T65XJ Год назад

Li KeQiang also said the poorest 600 million Chinese live on 1000RMB a month and an addition 300 million live on 2000. That’s over $2 trillion USD in living expenses for the poorest 64% of the population. If the $9 trillion figure holds water then China is a lot more equal than the Gini coefficient would suggest

@datascience_azamat Год назад

Love your videos

@rvs1 Год назад

it feels like ive seen this video before. Ah, i see you refer to the video i saw yourself already.

@keplerTycho Год назад

Okay, now I'm interested in using machine learning to estimate the GDP. Sure lighting alone isn't enough, but if we use many different predictive features, some interesting patterns might emerge...

@marcob1729 Год назад

it would need to come up with the unique bias of the country, such as those explained in this video. Since China is, well China, you would need training data from it to estimate its own biases. And since China’s data is the one in doubt, I don’t see how that would happen.

@davec8153 Год назад

I'm not sure it would help. Machine learning needs a large set of data and some kind of baseline to train against. The issue is there isn't a large set of data (there are only so many countries) and there isn't a baseline (that's exactly what we're trying to determine). There's also the underlying issue that different data sets have different degrees of reliability depending on the country in question.

@Betorsouza Год назад

Definitely would make things worse. It just creates some arbitrary parameters that you cannot really verify if they are accurate

@minecrafter897 Год назад

Your ML algorithms will only be as good as the data used to produce them.

@JMurph2015 Год назад

@@marcob1729 I think the idea is that one would train to predict only from the secondary measures, not from stated figures. Then you can train it on places with more reliable stated GDP figures to correlate the secondary ones to the GDP.

@iattacku2773 Год назад

Economics explained - 100 social credit score

@syednadeem9859 Год назад

EE doing very good work in youtube. I having been requesting to make a video on Germany and put it in the leaderboard. Every major economy got to be listed on board expect Germany. Why so?

@lenowoo Год назад

Nice shout-out

@fzigunov Год назад

Short answer: a lot 😂

@johnfarmind5267 Год назад

Isn’t it spelled manipulator? (thumbnail)

@rubiconnn Год назад

Does anyone know what city and/or neighborhood this is @10:08 ?:

@uggali 5 месяцев назад

My dad grew up in a house with no electricity just out of the city with the largest port in NZ, Tauranga. His mother grew up in the north where they built the first road when she was a teenager to connect Rangi Point with civilisation. My nan’s land was settled in September 1054AD by the priest and navigator Nukutawhiti the greatgreatgreat grandson of Kupe who chased Muturangi’s octopus to Aotearoa from Hawaiki, which i believe is the island of Raiatea in the Tuamotu archipelago. My nan by her mother is a descendant of Nukutawhiti, and her father was from Australia and he was a fisherman

@n.c9653 Год назад

Hundreds of world class and renowned academics, economists analysts, banks, investment funds and other institutions spend their careers continuously combing through China statistics with a fine comb. Far more than most countries. The figures are well within any tolerance.

@Mr.Engineer. Год назад

Still waiting for Norway somewhere on that leader board :)

@Queleb1 Год назад

1:11 Does anyone know why this B-Roll footage has a Canadian flag flying with the Chinese ones? 🤔

@johnw9190 Год назад

So, in terms of military spending, is it lower than stated? Or is it accurate and so a higher % of GDP than stated?

@cooldudecs Год назад

Military spending in China is spent on keeping the empire together. China is not a country but an empire allowed to be by America. This has been withdrawn as america is creating its own order without China and Russia .. They will be in the no man’s land. China wants to still be in the mix but it’s just too corrupt

@ivancavlek4755 Год назад

You guys and Money & Macro should make a collaboration on a topic that you (mostly) agree on. I'd look forward to such a video.

@davidmedlin8562 Год назад

Couldn't computers be the economist at the end of the line keeping track of everything

@seanongjoco5832 Год назад

I guess the problem with that is with having reliable inputs, if they put in inaccurate data it will give out inaccurate results

@davec8153 Год назад

Nope. If financial history has taught us anything, it's that we are really good at manipulating numbers and rules to tell the story we want.

@Nemerian Год назад

No.economic calculation problem, or garbage in/garbage out problem, depending on what you mean by keeping track

@a2xd94 Год назад

Provide the public with accurate, un-manipulated statistics that reveal just how poorly politicians are doing? A politician would never allow that to happen!

@ikhbjhbkm5 Год назад

Your Chi'ner to China transition is impressive. You can apply it to dat'er too. Edit - Actually never mind you did quite well second half.

@patrick247two Год назад

Need to add a tolerance to bound the accuracy.

@H1kari_1 Год назад

At simply wall street, a LOT of Chinese companies have too-good-to-be-true balance sheets and future prospects. One lesson I learned: if something looks too good to be true, it is.

@answerwu2011 Год назад

Just wondering why we have been criticized china‘s lie on economic Statistics for so long, and China is still standing up and not collapsing, and see like some countries we’d been praised but their economy finally collapsed, anyone tell me why?

@therealjedipunk Год назад

Economic dishonesty can be perpetuated when there are a lack of consequences, a glut of foreign cash flowing in, and enough slave labor to keep things moving.

@Tonatsi Год назад

Due to heavy state interference they've done their best to damage control and keep their economy from collapsing but if nothing changes they're on their way to a collapse. It's just happening slower.

@evankurniawan1311 Год назад

China has enough size to keep lying for a long time. Their industrial capabilities is no joke as proved by real goods they produced. BUT, do their economic number actually reflect reality or just like how other communist state that fudge number from down to the top

@timtam53191 Год назад

lol according to 1000 videos on youtube China collapsed in 30 days, 6 months ago. I'm sure all those videos have nothing to do with USA's 500 million dollar bill to smear anti-China "propaganda".

@answerwu2011 Год назад

@@timtam53191 ok anti-China has been American goal for so long, I guess since the end of Soviet union, but 911 and American's wars in ME, held back Anti-China movement to later on til Trump's appearance.

@kanekiken2002 Год назад

7:18 Isn't it the correct formula, GDP = C+I+GI+(EX-IM) ? C = Consumption I = Investments GI = Government Investments EX = Exports IM = Imports

@calotono Год назад

Dude, I love you. You should have 75 million subs.

@TheDarkestStar1 Год назад

I think at this point EA games are more trusted than Chinese statistics.

@alfredlear4141 Год назад

Ouch

@user-pn3im5sm7k Год назад

Includes Chinese wartime statistics, something most people will not admit. How do you kill 300,000 in a city thats proven to have a population of 200,000 in 1937?

@leezhieng Год назад

@@user-pn3im5sm7k There were 150,000 soldiers stationed there other than the native population, it's even confirmed by Japan's own data

@toyotaprius79 Год назад

You should try Ireland on that assumption

@piuthemagicman Год назад

EE has already done an Ireland episode.

@toyotaprius79 Год назад

@@piuthemagicman How could I forget? LMAO That was a god awful video.

@seanoleary7457 Год назад

Shutup, Ireland is 2nd

@Cptkiller2010 Год назад

Something just beautiful about 6:30 . It looks like something id try to build in Cities: Skylines

@TheZanzaroni Год назад

Awesome video. One country that sticks outs as a sore thumb economically is Nigeria, as there are multiple reports of it having a puppy government for Shell (a lot of them have flown under the radar), with the subsequent envirnonmental crises and corruption to facilitate such a power move by a big company putting strain on the average person living there, such a video would not necessarily be in line with your series of ranking a country's economy. I still however think it would be awesome content from you especially given your research and knowledge and you do not have to specifically focus on the activities of Shell on the country. Cheers!

@Homer-OJ-Simpson Год назад

Great video. Money and Macro did a good in depth video covering different aspects of the same thing. They spent more time analyzing the light usage to gdp data and found that it was good use of data even if it’s not entirely accurate. But even the original paper said that his light data showing 60% lower gdp in China doesn’t mean the 60% is entirely accurate. It just gives you an idea of how exaggerated the gdp data likely is. I’ve traveled China a few times and noticed that city cores of major cities look rich or middle class but outer parts of the city are as poor as typical Mexico (also traveled it) and rural areas are African level poor. Rural in the context of China can mean a town of 300,000!

@paullnetinstitute4799 Год назад

but i guess all this useless as long as every data estimate agrees that China is the second largest economy

@Homer-OJ-Simpson Год назад

@@paullnetinstitute4799 the very fact guy can’t see the importance lead me to believe your a a die hard defender of the CCP. It doesn’t take much thought to understand the importance of grossly exaggerated gdp figures, especially when China uses that keep control of the people.

@Homer-OJ-Simpson Год назад

@@paullnetinstitute4799 okay, it’s confirmed paullnet is a CCP tr°//. You sub to Barret which is a CCP paid western RU-vidr spreading CCP propa.

@Peichen01 Год назад

Maybe check Mexico's number first before saying China inflated GDP and Chinese suburbia is as poor as Mexican suburbia. No kidding, China and Mexico have nearly the same GDP per capita on nominal and PPP basis. They should look similar and further proof there is no inflated GDP Jokes like you are why I am not concerned about anti-china movements in the West. You cannot even take care of yourself in your own country and needs the smarter half to take care of you

@paullnetinstitute4799 Год назад

@@Homer-OJ-Simpson so world bank ad imf are paid by ccp becuase they use official state data. Find some job to keep your mind active

@0xCAFEF00D Год назад

5:20 I find it extremely hard to believe they don't present this with error margins. So hard to believe I find a lack of reassurance that they actually don't come with error margins highly suspicious.

@wittymartin Год назад

Please do Brazil and South Africa next. Thanks!

@sjgghosh7677 Год назад

Whatever Chinese economy is it's great....we outsiders can't live without their exported items ...so even if it's inflated it's going great.... maybe at most it can be argued that normal Chinese citizens are actually worse than they said to be ...but as a whole full Chinese economy is in decent shape because of their export and capacity to produce goods at good quality with lowest price to serve the people

@alexanda8154 Год назад

Actually, the rich province in China will say the GDP number smaller than is actually to be，Because smaller number can decreased Tax，And the poor province in China will enlarge the number.

@TobiasBroad Год назад

I’m only a few minutes in but is this about the “night-light” study… Edit: it was, that’s a very interesting study I’m glad you talked more about it. Great attempt on the Chinese names, however I feel you (like many in the West) give China the benefit of the doubt.

@cryptojackson Год назад

i like your videos, but have 1 suggestion to add national/government/corporate debt to your equation. Japan's economy on a 4th place make your chart kinda ... unreliable, in my view. just a thought.

@w0mblemania Год назад

Gotta say, that high ranking for New Zealand is looking increasingly silly. I get that social-democratic minded economists like the current NZ economy-government, but come on, New Zealand is not an economic high-flier in any way. It has a high cost of living, with many young New Zealanders leaving for Australia and elsewhere.

@leezhieng Год назад

But even Australia is not doing that well. The mining industry is literally tanking their entire economy.

@w0mblemania Год назад

@@leezhieng I think you should do some basic research before commenting further.