@@frankcrosby6222 Good for you! I hope you're reading a book and not your cell phone. Also, Look for the critiques and criticisms and listen to/read those, too (and send them to me! I haven't found any credible ones).
Thank you for uploading this to YT. I can't believe that there were only ~25 live people on this TEAMS call. It deserves to be watched by 100K+ people.
They were busy streaming migos and the kardashians that is what the majority of the numnuts here think is so worthy of their time and is entertaining to them 😂
Thoughts in no particular order: 1) Zeihan is one of the most listenable speakers on these macro-scale topics I've encountered on YT 2) He's too cocky for me to fully trust but he seems right on the broad strokes 3) in particular, I think he excels at explaining his favorite topics of demographic effects on labor/capital markets and of unintended consequences (e.g., the *real* inputs required for a "green revolution", and the geopolitical and security ramifications thereof) 4) I really like this long-format presentation to a well-versed audience because I think it's WAY better and more comprehensive than some of the other segments cobbled together from multiple prior Zeihan presentations on channels like GeoPop, etc.
Nailed it. Point #2 agreed. Very confident in specific predictions, almost deterministic. In fairness he does mention a few times he’s been unexpectedly surprised. I would be interested to understand how his peers and academics in this field view his thesis and methodology
37:40 inflation 1:12:50 crops in Africa globalization 1:18:01 oil to $170, close off u.s. supplies, world recession 1:21:59 China going to have to suck up oil shortage 1:33:33 amazing pie charts with tiny wind and solar 2:02:56 the end of global oil pricing
I've been following Peter for about 6 years now. The core of his presentation, the demographics, geography and economics have not changed. Everything he predicted back then has come to pass so far. You can pretty much trust his predictions to pan out.
@@gabrielsmetzer4137 Xi Jinping removing term limits and staying on as the leader of the CCP and generally how fracking turned out although that one barely counts. The majority of his prodictions are playing out right now. Especially the Ukraine war, which he has been saying was going to happen for a decade now. He was off by a year but Covid-19 has speed everything up a bit. Mostly it is everything happening in the background that are required for his overall prediction to happen have and are happening. Of course that's not surprising when all your predictions are based on demographics and geography.
@@texasforever7887 Strongly disagree. End of an age over a decade perhaps. Zooming out and learn a bit of history, things are just playing out 'as usual'. The collapse of USA empire or even the West or even the globe, is not really the end of the world or the end of human civilization.
I have been watching Peter's presentations for about 9 months now. Each time, there's been a bit more information added in. This is at the same time the widest, most indepth, and up to the minute exposition of the issues and trends going on worldwide (including how the current invasion has accelerated all of it) that I have ever seen. Nathan, thank you very much for providing this.
@Randell Wayne Are you asking for the US? Rus? 3rd world countries? China? Each will have different levels of fallout from these events. The US will have a lot of inflation, but will suffer less from just about everything that will happen elsewhere.
I've been fallowing him for about 6 years now. The core of his presentation, the demographics, geography and economics have not changed. Everything he predicted back then has come to pass so far. You can pretty much trust his predictions to pan out.
@@texasforever7887 Geography...and some of the demographic stuff is just cast in stone for a very long time. I''ll never forget when I first saw Peter's display of the Middle Kingdom's swiftly collapsing demographic--it was like watching a massive tsunami in advance. Nearly unalterable. And that was even before I knew that condos' in the Tier 1 cities sell for 40 times an average salary--and that's what the young ladies want, is a condo at the start of a marriage. Or that with the current 996 lifestyles, young couples don't even have time or energy to raise a child, even if all branches of a family sacrificed to buy one condo...Then learning that the one way of coping with this , immigration, is rejected there.
I've followed Peter for quite a few years. Saw him at a conference and thought, wow, this guy sees the big picture. He has a unique perspective and a broad range.
Anyone is bound to slip up when relaying an encyclopedia's volume of data. Thankfully neither as historical footnotes are functionally relevant to the modern day.
Zeihan is the MAN. More than anything I appreciate his unpolarized mentality about the topics he covers... no axe to grind, business to promote or political reputation to defend. I've watched about ten of his lectures and he is extremely consistent in his analysis, too.
Really excellent presentation by Peter and even more impressive were the quality of questions coming from the audience. I am not only impressed, but heartened, by what I heard in our ability to navigate the very rough sea's we now face. Well done Peter and well done ladies and gentlemen.
Absolutely terrifying. Thanks Peter for giving me sleepless nights, but also the tools to deal with a future that is much more challenging than a few sleepless nights. I'd like to share your work with my friends but most have fingers stuck firmly in their ears.
@@1painter4hire Hey Alex, now I know where to look watching China is like watching a slo mo train wreck. But happening kind of fast as well. I wonder if 1939 felt like this?
It's only terrifying if you fail to act. Tragedy for one is opportunity for others. Its not pretty, but you have to live in the world as it is, not as you'd like it to be,
As for ukr ag- the ministry of ag in kyiv claimed they’d hit 70% of their prewar yield, but they were already seeing massive fuel shortages for tractors just for the planting cause they sent all that fuel for tractors to the army. Harvest will be a bigger issue. And that’s before we get into the issue of ruined fields, eod clearance (all those submunitions and mines and Un exploded artillery shells etc can really wreck a tractor) and the areas still active war zones.
Perhaps the Ukraine Government should have considered the implications of becoming involved in Victoria Nulands War? Russia may have even allowed them to use the Odessa Port?
@@Astuar Poland & the non-fsu eu countries all use a different rail gauge, and too expensive. But Ukraine, Belarus & the Baltic’s share the old fsu broad gauge, the same one Russia uses. The only way it makes sense logistically and financially rn is to rail it through Belarus to the baltics (latvia had a major port for this before the war). Same rr gauge the whole trip. And added benefit of Belarus also being able to ship their potash to market. But noooooo. The Europeans wanted to virtue signal so they sanctioned Belarus too. Like, yea, I get it, bad man bad… But millions will starve because of stuff like this. Preventable nonsense that nobody in Brussels thinks of yet cause they all have full bellies and can’t seem to conceptually wrap their heads around what is coming six months down the pipe. It’s so far outside of their experience that they can’t imagine it. The worst part is that they’re still using Russian oil and gas (and lots of other stuff) while they sanction everyone else trying to get *their* oil and gas and fertilizer and *everything else*…the hypocrisy kills me. Belarus has offered to open up their rail, the eu said no. Belarus was already sanctioned since protests a while back were crushed, and now with the war they’re definitely not letting up…
Amazing work from Peter as always. Very insightful. Gives real perspectives about what to do with personal finance and forward purchasing technologies in the advent of scarcity.
After following Peter for a decade, I have concluded he is a 4th dimensional being who is able to exist both in the present and 10 years in the future.
as a kid we played 'risk', possibly so did putin, we'd try to take over the world: russia takes ukraine, japan takes vladivlostok, russia takes romania and moldova, mongolia absorbs siberia, china absorbs mongolia, scotland and belfast secede from britian and rejoin the eu, japan bombs kim un's missiles, south korea and japan (and vladivlosok) absorb north korea, nato withdraws from europe, taiwan declares independence, the eu defense pact bombs moscow, poland takes kalininistan and belarus, ukraine takes russia, turkey is thrown out of the eu, slovakia takes hungary, catalonia secedes and rejoins spain, canada takes alaska and seattle, usa absorbs mexico and guatemala, the democracy league overthrows the tatmadaw in burma, israel relocates to wyoming, and monaco bails out france. germany absorbs austria again and new zealand takes tasmania. and so on
I respect and enjoy Mr. Zeihan. His talking points have remained consistent and seem to be bearing out. Who else can/should I be watching and listening to? The more info the better. Thanks.
John Michael Greer. His non occult writings, Joseph Nye - he was very influential in the globalized era. Halford Mackinder is a classic thinker in the colonial era. You can find youtube stuff for all three. Mackinder is long gone - but reading him is still good.
Listening to this while I play War Thunder, which is always interesting. I figured years ago that Chinese labor costs were not going to be sustainable in the long run as demands in higher wages increased. Now, they seem set to really implode.
The date for the Treaty of Westphalia he gave at approximately 22 minutes into the presentation is wrong. The treaty of Westphalia occurred in 1648, not 1066. The year 1066 was the Norman Invasion of the British Isles. Great talk, otherwise.
You are truly amazing in the level of information you have gathered and the analysis you have done. I just bought all your books on audible, hope that also counts towards the charity you support. I am wondering specifically on the green front how the following recent developments affect your math on that area: 1. A lot of the materials you mentioned in the production of electric vehicles are for the batteries. There has been a major shift from NMC batteries to LFP batteries with Tesla using LFP for half their batteries last quarter, and the second largest producer in the world BYD, using LFP in the vast majority of their electric vehicles. There are other technologies on the horizon, but that is the only one that is certain. Does not needing cobalt or nickel but needing iron and phosphorus change the national issues there? Also, as a side note most batteries are manufactured in China, how does that impact things? 2. Electric cars are moving to 800V architectures (from 400V) and that can significantly reduce the amount of copper used, is this insignificant, or does it help a lot in the problems there? There is no reason they can't go higher to 1200V either. 3. Areas that seem not to be productive in solar and wind can still pay off over a much longer time frame because the degradation of those devices is based on power output (solar directly, wind is based on the moving parts), not time. So power output for upfront cost is higher, but the devices should last longer and produce longer. It is also interesting to think about folks putting solar (and small safe wind devices, which now exist) locally and reducing the demand on centralized energy, though it is a small market still, it doesn't have to have the same economics to pay off over time given that it increases the value of the home or business. Does that impact the map where "green" energy is viable? Thank you, Mike
This is the most comprehensive overview of Global Trade and thus, Politics. All-in-one one stop shop. 2.5 hours is a pretty good ROI for all of that. Well done.
Thank you for uploading this. All in all, it seems like the USA is going to be fine in the long run... I just hope our relations with you guys are strong enough. One thing I would like to see is someone giving counter arguments against the things Peter Zeihan discusses. Just to get a more balanced view on things.
@@carlosparedes1556 the reason his view on America is like this I believe is because America is the most geographically blessed nation on earth. Not because of American exceptionalism. I don't believe humans in America are somehow better than the rest of humanity. Obviously being American myself who loves my country I think it has the potential to be the best in the world, and is the best of the systems currently running. But I think that most any nation built in what constitutes the USA would have the best outlook on the future peter believes is coming.
I love Ziehan’s work, especially as it relates to Russia and the former USSR. I would question whether or not it is inconceivable that everyday Russians could or would exert pressure on their government to force regime change. After all, we all felt as though the USSR was a monolithic force on par with the great western powers, and yet it’s collapse came out of nowhere and shocked the world.
I don't think you understand that the forces that drive Russia's actions are not the result of ideology or some party or political power but that stark geography and hundreds of years of history. The Russian people would want a safe, secure Russia, and asking them to act against their self interest in the name of some ill informed altruism is just madness.
With humanity considering a celestial empire including mars and the moon, there is probably a need for russia to be provably esg to preserve biomass for possible travel and cultivation, tough ask with how much they already nuked their own territory
@@dancingbabybins The US Nuked the Duke..... The cast of a film about a Mongolian Warlord that included John Wayne, along with the residents of St George Utah seemed to be inflicted with a 50% cancer rate among the people exposed to US Nuke testing. Let He who is without sin......
@@danielhutchinson6604 yeah im just pointing out that the giant sheet of land Russia occupies has a self inflicted radioactive scar the same that China has a self inflicted ground water disaster. The idea is the government is supposed to be working toward solutions not creating negative flow rivers
@@dancingbabybins The groundwater pollution that Fracking water seems to pose in the Oil Patch seems to pollute a bit? Oklahome seems to get earthquakes from all the Water they seem to dump since fracking became popular..... We all have faults.....
I haven't seen evidence the blackouts are doing anything in California except encouraging everyone with the ability and a brain to leave the state. The leaders are still praying at the feet of their green idols.
@Nathan Watson Thank you for posting this . Anyone else out there spending long hours trying to find fault/critique with PZ's data ? ? ? Don't misunderstand me; I think the guy's gifted, intelligent & rightfully respected.
You cant get on Peter's work with data (I do see faults with it on some fine points but that falls into nitpicking), only with the interpretation of the data. The only person I can see who can hit the same data points but come to a different (and darker) conclusion is John Michael Greer - the problem with Mr Greer is he has a massive amount of writings that deal with occult spirituality - it clouds his more thoughtful political - ecological writings.
@@redcoltken Haha that's where I'm at, got him playing at 2x on audio and looking through joint publications. Just trying to pin his nuance of process and actual critique as he does chat on like grandad with a beer 😏
Hi Peter. Thank you for the extremely interesting videos you make. Would you do one detailing why and how it might come about that China collapses this year ?
1. There’s a war within the CCP factions. They might just implode this year. Xi is up for re-election this fall, so that’s one political theater to watch 2. Likely to have mass famine in q4 this year. They’re having a lot of food problems this year 3. We don’t hear about it much but there are mass protests all over China. Shanghai is hardly the only city protesting the lockdowns 4. China has been planning for national lockdown for a few years. They just started forbidding their citizens from leaving the country. Those returning from abroad are having their passports destroyed. Those leaving are having their passports destroyed. Even those with green cards are having their green cards destroyed 5. They are the world’s #1 importer of food and fuel. There’s a shortage of both. 6. There were already rolling blackouts last year due to fuel shortages last year. It’ll be worse this year 7. There was a mass corporate exodus last year. Most Korean, Japanese, and American companies shut down their manufacturing facilities last year, exceptions being apple and Tesla 8. China has secessionist regions (south). That’s a challenge 9. With the lockdowns, babies/families are being separated, people are welded in their homes, citizens are jumping to their death. It’s very unstable right now. Pair that with unemployment and you have a recipe for mass revolt. Individual citizens and CCP officials have been calling the CIA and the Australian intelligence organizations to report what’s going on within the country because they’re so angry with what’s going on in their country. Remember, Mao was not that long ago. There are plenty of people for whom Mao was within living memory. Xi is turning into Mao 2.0. In some circles he is referred to as Xitler. People are very angry. But it’s not clear to me what % are angry vs not.
@@mangonut 1. Thank you for the detailed response, it is very interesting. 2. Do you have any further information on the "Secessionist Regions" or can you point me to a website with it ? 3. I love Mangoes too ... I can't get enough of them !!!
I would like to know the releationship of Diesel Exhaust Fluid, made from Urea which is made from ammonia, and the projected shortage of nitorgen fertilizers. It seems to me that the necessity of spraying DEF into every diesel engine has an impact on the fertilizer availability.
More than 90% of all produced urea is used in controlled-release fertilizer. Resins, explosives, and pharmaceutical products are other significant uses of urea. Problems with urea supply were acute last year already. AdBlue (Diesel exhaust fluid) is 32.5% urea by weight. Solutions: a) Start local urea production (with government subsidies) again. b) Allow disabling the SCR Unit. c) Ration AdBlue and seek new stable supplier contracts. Australia went with a), South Korea went with c). Europe produces locally but is still very dependent on Russian gas for that.
At 21:22, just to keep the record straight: 1066 marks the Norman conquest of what is today known as Britain. The treaty of Westphalia was signed in 1648.
He's an uninformed propagandist often telling outright lies. This is what happened after the US backed Ukraine coup. Ukraine National Guard killing unarmed protestors Mariupol 2014 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-6hW1gsxGW4g.html First shooting is at 4.19. The South and East of Ukraine never wanted to be part of NATO.
IU predict the mass of that starvation will be in Africa and the middle east respectively. Which will be devastating for both. You will see Rwanda level genocides all across Africa and Arab springs in the middle east. Essentially FUCKED!
The only mention of nuclear power was about pressurized water reactors. Would like to have heard some views on Thorium production from monazite sands and the implementation of molten salt reactors and using the waste heat from them to produce hydrogen from coal.
@@GenghisDon1970 I guess that's how the molten salt reactor got dropped back in the 1970s with Chet Holifield(?) Richard Nixon. According to the thorium alliance, a 600MW molten salt reactor would be about the size of the average refrigerator and produce electricity for about $0.01 per kWh retail. The military could put a couple in a 20-foot shipping container.
@@rodneytrynor7374 I do not know about that, but infinitely safer plants (for some areas) should have been around for decades. The problem, as I understood it, as the Navy. water+ Na = boom. These reactors are NOT for coasts, ships or subs, or flood prone areas. They promised to be vastly superior everywhere else though...
@@GenghisDon1970 I only know about the stuff I've found from people like these. Thorium and the Future of Nuclear Energy ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-ElulEJruhRQ.html The Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-tyDbq5HRs0o.html THORIUM DEBUNK ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-H6mhw-CNxaE.html
@@GenghisDon1970 Molten salt reactor is NOT the same as a Na (sodium ) cooled reactor. The liquid in the primary loop is a molten flouride salt, which while not the easiest thing to contain, it is worlds away from the reactivity and fire/ explosion hazard of elemental sodium metal, which will burst into flame on contact with air/humidity, and water.. The molten salt reactor has improved safety compared to a PWR or BWR, so of course it is far safer than sodium cooled.
This is the most informative videos I’ve ever watched. Regarding oil exports changing this year … Maybe this is why China has been so quietly involved with Nigerian politics this last year? One of the presidential candidates is even saying that he will make Nigeria like China (industrialization). They seem to be involved in Angola’s politics as well, but to a smaller degree. I wonder if China is preparing for this shift.
50:38 - if those numbers are true, then the sex imbalance in China is far, far worse than we have previously thought - with a huge number of young men never going to have a chance of having a wife and family. Even a relatively small imbalance leads to political instability - this could be huge. Edit: Just as one example, this imbalance may push the Chinese government to become militarily aggressive, not to actually take territory but simply to eliminate excess males who may cause instability at home.
About two thirds of the way through, and this looks like a good analysis _based on current capabilities_ - but of course, our capabilities don't stay the same, and in fact are currently increasing more rapidly than ever before. So, as one example, if we really can get 80% of the way to where we need to be (at least for the western hemisphere) for the materials for electric cars, consider the impact of self-driving cars which look like they may be available soon ... and suddenly we're doing well, because robotaxis could replace a much larger number of privately owned cars, especially in urban areas - perhaps four or five to one while reducing costs to the public. That's aside from the question of new sources for these minerals being developed, new technology reducing or eliminating the need for certain minerals (the requirement for cobalt is already waning rapidly), and so forth. What's more, once these materials are in the system they can be recycled almost endlessly. Also note that there is talk about Russia diverting its natural gas to China, which could make electricity generation much cleaner there - while Europe, more technologically developed, could more easily transition to even cleaner energy generation if they can find the will to do so. Note also that pilot projects for enhanced geothermal are very promising and for the most part repurpose existing technologies and industries. As far as agriculture goes: yes, climate change could create a lot of problems ... but there is already a lot of innovation happening in the agricultural field which could make the question of climate largely irrelevant.
Hi Peter, I was an Army Logistic Ordnance officer and was a educated as Geologist. I have been frustrated by the decades of energy shortages when I know that we have oceans of untapped Natural gas. Most of the world has many layers of inaccessible coal full of natural gas even Europe which can be accessed with New technologies (40 years old technology). You could do the world a huge favor and save millions of lives by exploring this untapped resource . We have clean unlimited energy available even Germany except for ignorance and politics with Corporate influence. You could stop World War 3. You could inspire a hopeful future. Also a hybrid vehicle using electric hybrid -electric motor and and a smaller reasonable battery for high torque acceleration using man made liquified gas could give us vehicle with 1000 mile range. There natural gas under most land
Hello All I love Peter's presentations and enthusiasm. However, I have started doing some fact checking of his presentations and recommend all of his readers do so as well. Be informed of the facts for your own good.
I am not an expert in geopolitics, so I will not say that what Mr. Zeihan says is non sense. But I would say that it is surprising to me that he says things that take a minute to disprove. One example, he argues that the energy transition would not be possible without Russia. That may be true but to argue his point he says that Russia is the number one or two in the world's production of Copper, Nickel, and Cobalt. Well, being Chilean (Chile produces about 27% of the world's Copper) this seemed a little strange to me so I looked. Copper: Russia is 8th top producer with about 4%. Nickel: Russia is the 4th top producer with about 10%. Cobalt: Here he is right, Russia is the second top producer but it so happens that the Democratic Republic of Congo produces 16 times more Cobalt than Russia, which is second with about 4% of the total. My point here is that saying things with much conviction does not make them true.
he's usually referring to the exports not the production. Because it is the exports that matter most for the world trade. So russia is #2 in copper exports after Chile.
I was wondering about that too, but the difference is more stark than I imagined. In general I think Mr. Zeihan makes good points, but he misses sometimes when he focuses on current capabilities, much of which are already out of date. For instance, he talks about "if" we had a cobalt free battery chemistry for electric cars while cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are already in production and being used in electric vehicles.
the thing about shale and bitumen is it is not as energy dense, conventional light sweet crude might have an energy returned on energy invested of 10-30 barrels per barrel of energy equivalent invested, for shale and bitumen it is closer to 2 or 3, it's very expensive, the two sources are not interchangeable in terms of the amount of energy left over after the energy costs of extraction, refinement and transport to market.
My greatest concern is for the possibility of cascade failure. In Brazil,, for instance, while they will certainly be fine initially, the extremely high cost of fertilizer will reduce yields as farmers cannot fully fertilize profitably. As the looming fertilizer shortages are unlikely to reverse within a year or two, at least some farmers will begin going bankrupt and be unable to afford to bring any crops to market. This has been seen before. If enough farmers are put out of business, the combination of economic strain and reduced food supplies could still result in a cascade failure and see the nation collapse. There are similar cascade failure weaknesses in many, many nations. I just used Brazil for an example.
Bingo. Peter’s short term analysis is spot on. But even if that is exactly what happens in the next 2-3 years, it’s anyone’s guess what happens after that. The cascade effects will literally be chaos in the world order. It’s fucking terrifying when you start to really think about it.
Most of it is really interesting, and pretty to the point, I think his outlook on renewables is a bit simplistic however, it's clear that he isn't an expert in this area. Firstly the levelized co2 output of a solar panel is far lower than that of coal or gas. Also why would you need to overlay wind and solar production, that doesn't make sense, you aren't looking for areas that have high wind AND solar potential, because very often that's impossible (windier areas may very often be stormy and have lower solar potential).
Very nice interview! Many interesting questions were asked! Now I understand why my officials (Polish government) want to neutralize Russia ASAP. Otherwise we will have MANY more difficult days ahead... I'm surprised that lot of western European countries want gather money for temporary benefits and do not see how devastated will be the world if we do not act quick. Refuges crisis, energy crisis, food crisis... many ppl around the world will suffer and it's even not their fault, that country who think of it self as a superpower and force it's crazy politic, lay down after attacking enemy FOUR time less power then Russia is their own mind... Total absurd, and besides sanctions that are easy circumvent, there is absolutely no punishment. Business as usual...
Not sure how accurate is the map at 1:36:33 I personally know about several solar/wind farms in South-East Europe in the "Unsutable" region and they are very profitable, generating substantial and consistent power output.
Do you include government subsidies in your profit calculation? They no doubt generate output, but it is not "consistent" as sun only shines in the day and wind blows when it does. So youd need batteries too.
@@Tom-gp8do to Power NYC during all 4 seasons and night, probably pretty accurate. Youd need a whole lot of batteries too. You may be able to have the capacity to produce the needed energy to power nyc with less, but to do it for a full year consistently and in reality is a lot more nuanced than having a larger capacity amount than required energy amount.
This talk is incredible but I can't help but notice the bias the speaker has when measuring outcomes in this volatile new world: "American changes will work out good while any other countries changes will work out bad".
He never said that it will be a walk in the park. The United States though has a combination of resources, military strength, isolated geography and a ok demographics that allows it the ability to succeed in this new environment. We have a lot of work to do to get there but it is possible. Most other nations are missing one or more necessary inputs to succeed in the new environment as well as the United States will, if we can make the right choices. Most importantly we are independent in energy and food so we won't starve and get to keep our lights on. Depressingly that is not a guarantee for most Nations.
@@Me-zo8yc unfortunately there is likely going to be a resurgence in dollar diplomacy with the addition of South America practically becoming an American protectorate where they will dictate who can do business there. History is restarting.
Minor correction: to Apple’s credit, they have been moving iPhone production to India since 2017. They started with the entry model SE and recently added a forth production model with the 13. iOS people should be okay
@@theelastog1580 I've seen that Peter has repeated this "Apple doubling down in China" statement in multiple videos. The man's analysis is fantastic and people need to hear/internalize what he is communicating. Unfortunately people get hung-up on something they know to be false and throw the baby out with the bathwater. Of course, iPhones don't matter; what matters is that the message is seen to be credible.
90% of apple's production and supply chain is in or involves china. They announced yesterday they are trying to get into other southeast asian countries, which bumped their stock but the reason for getting into other countries is likely due to supply issues in China that we will not know about until the next quarterly report or whatever
Very thought provoking. Data analysis is terrific. But projections from that data have a range of speculative probability rather than being deterministic. History is rife with doom and gloom projections going back to Malthus, Club of Rome, Peak Oil, etc. What is missing, and in some sense, unknowable, is systemic reactions to straight line projections of current issues. In controlled economies, there is a command adaptation. Surely there are strategic moves that Russia, China and others can consider to alter their future. In democratic, more distributed markets, there are price responses. Why would there not be an increase in food production from regions that are currently underproducing if it suddenly becomes economic for example, to extend northward in the Canadian prairie provinces? On a specific issue, I appreciate his demographic analysis, but to base capital availability solely on demographics ignores changes in central bank policies, fiscal policy, global capital flows, de-fi, etc. Still, a provocative presentation.
A remarkable presentation. Thanks Nathan for providing this. A lot here to absorb. I'll probably have to watch it several times. Peter has clearly put things together in a way that can be understood. I do consider it a master class. But I am not at all convinced that Biden would cut off oil to Europe. I'm not even certain a second Trump term would do this. I fully expect just the opposite: a tighter relationship with Europe and hence greater oil exports to them. Ditto Japan. Less trade with China, more trade with Europe. It's in our best interests to do so. That said, there has always been an isolationist strain in the U.S. and it's not hard to see that it could happen again. I thought it intriguing too that we could conceivably go from a guarantor of global safety to a potential disruptor. I could see that happening with the demise of our democracy as it is today. I do not see China collapsing as rapidly as he's predicting. But we won't have long to wait to see if he is correct. He has talked about a constant labor shortage of decades. But he did not address the continuing tech rise of robotics and AI. My concern has been the opposite: an eventual shortage of living wage jobs for many Americans as a result of the switch to robotics and AI. And I think the current labor shortage is going to accelerate that trend. We shall see.
An interesting thought - a lot of the tech needed to replace workers, green and ai and robotics, require, well, oil. And a system with plenty of well fed consumers, and external markets that want to buy those products. What number of countries could pull it off? Certainly Japan has done the best job, and obv the us will be able to handle those sort of tech changes. But how much of the rest of the world that peter has described will be able to even develop, much less incorporate and succeed with it? Peter seems to be arguing strongly against china having the capacity to do this, with China usually being the example people try to counter him on using these new advanced techs.
@@jameseholschen3 Yeah, I don't think China can pull it off. Japan/South Korea yes, and we can. I agree with his assessment that we could go it alone. We did in WW2. We did the Manhattan Project, though to be fair to the Brits, they had a hand in that too. I don't doubt much our capacity. We put men on the moon within 10 years, we've got 2 functioning satellites still working outside our solar system - what can't we do when we set our minds to it? As to China, I've had too many personal experiences with poorly made stuff coming from them. A few good things too. Their manufacturing is uneven. QA is often abysmal. One thing he doesn't seem to address much is an alliance of China with Russia. They did have that kumbaya moment just before Russia attacked. Russia has what China needs, food and oil. China's tech isn't great, but it's good enough. They did get a probe to Mars, and that's hard to do. They impressed the world with their hypersonic weapon test. So it might be them that gets the oil refining running again, since the other players left. I admit I'm fascinated by Peter. I bought one of his books and am reading it. I'm watching the videos here, signed up on his website. He's challenging my world perception and he has a lot of facts. I recognize this is his wheelhouse. He's charming, has a good voice and is confident. He might be right about China being screwed, but I don't know if they're going to be THAT screwed. But maybe, for the period of time for the next 20-25 years, he's more right than wrong. The lockdowns are killing them. I just saw a video of people in Shanghai or Beijing screaming from their apartments and it was creepy eerie. I guess my main problem is that just as he's acknowledged that we will "muddle through" though painfully, it seems to me that other countries will do what's best for themselves too. I don't see them just wallowing in their problems for the next few decades. They will make the alliances they need to make - and maybe for self-preservation they might recolonize and get what they need. Also, it's in our best interests for a strong Europe and a China off balance. So I don't see us just going our own way. I do see us targeting certain oceans more than in the past. I see us feeding oil to Europe and oil to Japan and those that signed on with us. It's worth noting that when he talks about Bretton Woods and the number of ships at the time - that's not what we have now. We don't have 6500 ships. From Wiki: "The United States Navy has over 480 ships in both active service and the reserve fleet, with approximately 90 more in either the planning and ordering stages or under construction, according to the Naval Vessel Register and published reports." I just read an article on a rather stressed discussion about what the Navy could realistically do, vs what's being asked of them. So we're going to have to target where we are. We can't be everywhere anymore. But I don't think that means we just take our ball and go home and not play any more. But he's right in that we could. While he's talked about the last 7 presidents being populist, that's not quite accurate. Obama shifted focus to Asia and the Pacific during his term, Biden is currently in Asia and was near Ukraine as well. He's engaged with our European allies. But I take Peter's overall point. Future America may pick and choose her friends a lot more carefully, with a much sharper focus on just them. It may not be global safety, but ally safety. I'm not saying Peter's wrong. I don't know enough to say that. And it's clear that he's done the work. So, we'll see - and in the meantime, I'll be doing my own research both of his work and others to get my own take on it.
Perhaps the AI job shortage and the coming labor shortage will perfectly match, and everything will be great! Ha. Parhaps, but rather optimistic. Peter gets really gets into it about how limited he thinks the transformative effects of new technologies and robotics will be in his discussion with ARK invest. Short version: he sees a lot of technology as being at the top of a pyramid, the bottom of which involves energy and food and materials. if things on the bottom are all messed up due to deglobalization, it's going to be very hard to maintain new technologies at scale - in most places in the world, anyway.
@@mnorth1351 Heh. I don't see that happening either. I also have a view of a pyramid for society. It hasn't been quite what Peter's got, but I could adopt it. Mine's a bit fuzzy, his is crystal clear. Peter has a very valuable take on things and I plan to watch carefully.
21:10 Speaker misspeaks. Treaty of Westphalia is 1648 (known for formalization of nation-state concept). Battle of Hastings is 1066 (Normans conquered England).
With regards to decreased fertilizer contributing to food shortages, I'm reminded of another 2.5 hour video I stumbled across knowing nothing about before hand. It was about no-till and other regenerative farming practices that focus on increasing soil health to increase food production. Informed by new understanding of microbiology, farming could undergo a revolution that may decrease demand for imported fertilizer. Not at all a farmer myself, just my take away and possible something optimistic to contribute to this grim outlook of the future. Link to the video I came across if any one wants, presenter is Gabe Brown: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-uUmIdq0D6-A.html
The Brits also had a swagger before they bit the dust. A lesson for all super powers to tread gently with humility .. The clock will turn, as it always has
I wonder if the frightening decline rates of shale production and fracking are included in this overly optimistic (for the US) view. All the US re-rise of crude production stems from unconventional fields, and they all have low EROI, blood-red balance sheets and production decline rates of above 50% year-on-year. Once they stop drilling or run out of sweet spots to drill, production will collapse really quick. This shale revolution is not like finding new sources, it's more like scratching the bottom of the barrel. The aggressive stance and regime change dreams of the US versus Russia leading to the Ukraine war point to the realization that the US desperately needs free access to Russian crude, which Yeltzin had granted but Putin denied, which was when the conflict really started. Why else would the US and its saliva-licking vassals in NATO risk nuclear annihilation. All sides are desperate to be the last one to collapse. But the rest of the analysis is quite true, only the US will not be able to drag itself out of the collapse of the US empire.
