It was not a brand new content from the Eric's speech perspective, however it just published on August 11th (so new from that perspective) and banned on August 13.
Yes unfortunately that is the case, that aligns with my one of predictions that there will be waist private lands with a city’s where you won’t be able to place a foot. Same as now there is a houses which are off the google maps I believe it will be lands of the size of small countries. And the reason is because we won’t need a humans to run the basic infrastructure.
Do you know why these people act criminally without any fear? answer is as Christians you are programmed to believe that Jesus died for other people's sins. there is no accountability. all bible believers are waiting for the second coming of Jesus so he can die for others' sins. we come from the Eastern belief system there is a concept called Karma meaning you are responsible for your action
No, that is wrong. In military strategy, offence is always more costly thatn defence. You do have the upper hand in form of surprise and initiative initially, but that does not counter the upside of a good defence. The rule of thumb is 3 to 1 in losses for the offence. That is why overwhelming forces are so important to offset that difference. Like the Ukranian offence in Kursk, they have surprise, initiative, superior quality of soldiers and superior equipment. This will not last. Counteroffencive will come from Russia, with inferior equipment, inferior quality of soldiers but higher numbers of soldiers and no constraint in what equipment they can use. The cost in lives will be way higher than 1 in 3.
@@bestemusikken you are wrong. Basic military strategy is to have the best offence wins, why do you think america rules the world because it protects its borders so well?
I think the confusion is offensive systems vs offensive countries. A country attacking another typically needs more power, because the defending country has an advantage. But you can defend with offensive systems. Ie: Instead of sitting back with anti-missile defence, you could instead attack to destroy missile launchers and aircraft before they're fired. Just a guess.
“I take no responsibility for my actions” is about the most rock solid legal disclaimer ever issued, it should hold you over any law suit or criminal charge
Do you know why these people act criminally without any fear? answer is as Christians you are programmed to believe that Jesus died for other people's sins. there is no accountability. all bible believers are waiting for the second coming of Jesus so he can die for others' sins. we come from the Eastern belief system there is a concept called Karma meaning you are responsible for your actions.
If a publicly traded company opts to outsource overseas to reduce expenses, it should begin by outsourcing the CEO position. By saving millions in this manner, the company can maintain the employment of numerous American workers. These employees, in turn, will contribute to the local economy in various ways.
add "Journalist" to your bio if it's not already there; "Fair use is a legal doctrine that allows journalists to use copyrighted material without permission or licensing for news reporting, criticism, and comment. It's a constitutional safeguard for free speech that allows journalists to inform the public about important issues."
The problem with developing AI weapons to protect Ukraine is that the same weapons can be used for anything else. My big concern is that automated weapon systems make wars cheaper politically. People complain about wasting taxes on wars, but they riot if it's their blood that gets wasted. Also, as you reduce human decision making from military actions, it becomes easier to commit war crimes, and even to use that military against your own citizens. I don't think any military would buy weapons that can disobey orders on moral grounds.
Add to that the fact that Ukraine gov is one of the most corrupt world wide ranking up there with Russia’s and the Middle East so you could bet your bottom dollar they WILL sell to the highest bidder once the dust is settled
Plus, they leave so many weapons. You used to have to pay people to give you other people's teach, now they just abandon it. And what Russians can do quite well is hack. They invested quite a lot of money into their teach sector under Medvedev. Can attest to this from being involved with their teach sector and being part of certain groups. They don't have the inhibiting factors of fear or lack of confidence, they take "No" and laugh at it.
They are idiits if the think this way ukraine oh sorry na to will or can win russia. Ukraine will be totally defeated soon and fail as a land and nation and so as nato that openly declared malice war. The same tech hars both way russians arent idiots they just havent intended to harm their cousins unnecessarily. Sad war. I hope ai hype will fail so bad we go back to the good earth and good community again. And in some ways it will ... like stupid chatgbt @@TheChzoronzon
The public will pay for the investments (via their governments), and the profits will go to the big players as it always does. I say this because the energy/cooling required for the datacenters come from markets that are largely under government control and governments always fall for the con that investing to support the big players will lead to job growth. There is no free market at play in these matters...at all.
Structured presentation of ideas, reservations in his own ideas, pessimistic but grounded perspectives of future trends (this last one is what scares me the most). These are hallmarks of intelligence.
Not with american weapons, lol... the main objective of weapon makers in ole Amurrica is to maximize profit, not efficiency/cost Maybe with Russian ones ... :D
@@TheChzoronzonnah ruzzian are busing playing Tank Olympics by attempting to shoot turrets into the orbit. Their weapons are shit. Only numbers and attrition is what they can
17:50 He did not misspoke, in theory, an overwhelming offense is the best defense. The economics of defence vs attack dictates that its cheaper to mount a overwhelming offense than a complete defense. A shield is costlier and harder to produce than a sword or a spear.
Do you know why these people act criminally without any fear? answer is as Christians you are programmed to believe that Jesus died for other people's sins. there is no accountability. all bible believers are waiting for the second coming of Jesus so he can die for others' sins. we come from the Eastern belief system there is a concept called Karma meaning you are responsible for your action
Pease don't speed videos up when you do your supercuts! We can speed it up ourselves if we want, I personally just get annoyed. Thanks for the beautiful work Wes!!!
"The future of a war is a war that takes a millisecond, the whole thing occurred in a millisecond. That's faster than human decision making time, which means that our defensive systems are going to have to be on a hair trigger. And they're going to have to be invoked by AI, that we don't fully understand." ~Eric Schmidt, Former Alphabet CEO, 03/23/2023
@@Tracey66 Its important to understand that when he calls Taiwan a country in front of a Stanford class that he's disregarding the current very publicly held US One China Policy in a public yet academic venue. Anyone not understanding the severity of this should go back to the Taiwan Straight crisis of the late 90s when things almost when nuclear. Schmidt is publicly admitting to Chinese viewers that the US is now fully committed to full scale conflict over the Republic Of China. It cannot be said in any more public forum or PLARF would commence firing on TSMC immediately. Schmidt's entire Stork murder machine dreamland depends entirely on Chinese made GPU chips from the island, thus there is no longer a One China Policy, which means chaos reigns.
Really appreciate that you recorded this, & shared! This is all very disturbing. Confirms my worst concerns. I can see why it was pulled. These men have the ability to become our 21st century Oppenheimers.
Thanks for this. It seemed the interview video was sped up, so I adjusted to 0.75 and he sounded fine. But then when you talk, it’s too slow. Difficult switching speeds constantly in RU-vid. Constructive feedback. Thanks again
Here's the syllabus for the class. You can see that this lecture is from April'24. BTW, what site / product are you using to transcribe the video? Thanks. Stanford ECON295/CS323 I 2024 I The AI Awakening, Erik Brynjolfsson # Date Class Speaker + Topic 1 04/02/24 Erjk Brynjolfsson The Al Awakening 2 04/09/24 Eric Schmidt The Age of Al 3 04/16/24 MiraMurati Large Language Models and Beyond 4 04/23/24 Reid-Hoffman Business of Al 5 04/30/24 Anima Anandkumar: Al and Creativity 6 05/07/24 James Manyika Al and Society 7 05/14/24 Shivon_ZilS Augmenting Humans 8 05/21/24 Lawrence Lessig Al and Democracy 9 05/28/24 Daniel_ Susskind A World Without Work
Truth is always placed in plain sight. Only those who are capable are able to see the door to the truth Nothing in tech just happen, it is made to happen
I don’t think he misspoke in the offensive/defensive topic. He was saying any defense can be overwhelmed, so the best defense is a good offense, so he’s begun developing offensive projects and development so we will have no need to blow money on massive defensive networks that can ultimately be overwhelmed anyway.
Thanks for yet another interesting and informative video! When you play back other clips, it would be great if they are played at 1x speed so they align with your recording. Then everyone can select their listening speed as they want without tones of sound defects.
he didn't misspeak. He is saying you want the capability of having a strong offense, if needed. That is what will protect you in a war. The idea here is that if anyone is starting to cause harm, you could just immediately overwhelm them. For instance, with his Russian tanks vs apartment buildings example, if we saw that happen, we could literally send a bunch of cheap drones that just destroy all of their tanks (and whatever else) to render them unable to pursue further ground wars. He just said defenses don't work well, so it doesn't make sense to think he only recommends defense.
"I take no responsibility for my actions" 🤣🤣🤣 The way you delivered that line, cracked me up so hard, rewatched just that multiple times, well done sir!!!
Do you know why these people act criminally without any fear? answer is as Christians you are programmed to believe that Jesus died for other people's sins. there is no accountability. all bible believers are waiting for the second coming of Jesus so he can die for others' sins. we come from the Eastern belief system there is a concept called Karma meaning you are responsible for your action
@@manisha7041 The Bible talks a lot about consequences for our actions. And it says Christ will bring judgement when he returns. But like you said, the Bible points us to God's grace and forgiveness. And yes Jesus died for our sins, but he does not need to do it a second time!
I do not believe he misspoke. He did say that the offense has the advantage referring to "the best form of defense is an offense". So the weapons need to have offensive capabilities.
Legend thanks for posting Wes! His interviews are always pretty refreshing in how matter of fact he is in letting people know pretty much exactly whats going to happen.
@@flor.7797 unassailable defence capabilities gained through 'projecting' (non kinetic) the capability of a stronger offence is also his claim. Yet deaths result overseas?...
This guy is a sociopath. And it's a lie to say it's banned. But it'd be accurate to say it's full of lies. If they wanted to silence it...your video wouldn't be up.
Your way of doing these reviews is much appreciated Wes Roth. I go out of my way to listen to and share your work. Keep it up. I hope it profits you immensely.
Well, a programmer is non arrogant as long as they think they fully understand you (which may or may not be the case) *and* until they are not willing to convince you to that what you say you want might not be what you want and that there might be a better way. Better for you. So your AI will be non-arrogant as long as it doesn't give a shit about what you ask for :) (But sure, if it takes 30 seconds instead of 2 weeks, so maybe a fraction of a $ instead of several k$-s, then the playing field will be a bit different.)
LOL he is delusional the journalists and professors will be replaced by AI agents long before the people in dangerous jobs and plumbers. On the upside we can only hope that the AI arms dealing Professor agent will be more funny and Charming
full video here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-_WYKoOh_d7E.html officially removed from youtube, re-shared from a chinese website, talking about censorship...
well somebody uploaded this so i was able to see it. I am not at all surprised that this is being banned. Schmidt made a few kind of sensitive statements. Like at some point there was some figure cited and someone asked "Is that public knowledge?" and someone else said 'no'. I got the feeling he kept feeling like he was in an informal environment where he was just speaking to a bunch of Stanford grad students, in which case his remarks werent very harmful. Fantastic interview. So nice to have super intelligent people not jumping on the hype cycle, but actually presenting a sober clear-headed point of view. His brutal honesty is so refreshing.
The web will drown itself in AI generated content competing with other AI content for the attention of AI eyeballs trying to catalog and make sense of the whole damn mess.
Internet became dead a long time ago. I am not actually typing this, my commenting bot just auto-responds to comments like yours with bits of text like this.
If you live somewhere cold, it's not just that you don't have to worry about cooling so much, it's that you can capture the economic value of the *heating*. Chips are heaters that do calculations.
There is a Canadian company that is developing technology to use the heat from Bitcoin mining to heat houses and businesses. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-7yKscuCjQzc.htmlsi=olsZYJURfiDbyX6N
I saw the original before it got removed. Congrats for the initiative of reposting it in this format with comments. I guess Schmidt had a couple of delicious glasses of wine before the lecture and he got very, very outspoken. He usually is, but I noticed that this time he was in a more open mood. By the way, does anybody know which Peter he was saluting in the video? Voos? Diamandis, Norvig or Thiel? My guess is Peter Thiel...
Yes, but the 1917 Russian Revolution was the exception. As was the Paris Commune but that was too short lived.... Nevertheless, 1917 showed what is possible and what is possible can happen again, and again, etc.
IMO, he didn't misspeak. The Americans call it violence of action. Yes, at a specific point an offense is more expensive but as a whole, defense is much more expensive, because you need to defend every point of the front line, while the offense can concentrate their efforts. That's how blitzkrieg worked. And the way you counteract that is by having strong offensive capabilities yourself, so that when the enemy concentrate their forces they open themselves up to a counter offensive at other places that you could then exploit.
Thank you so much for putting together this video. I was searching and searching and I couldn’t find it. This was exactly what I needed to know. Your stuff is always so relevant and so helpful for us to plan and strategize. Thank you, grateful fan.!
18:00 He didn't misspeak. In war aggression wins, so what deters someone from attacking you is if you have a stronger offense. It's why nukes work - nukes protect us only because of how strong they are offensively.
@@michaelnurse9089 It isn't schoolboy talk. World War One was the most unique war in history - it was the first war that saw industrial age might at scale. I'm not sure how to explain it. Yes, you need to have a shell. But if you are going to fight something back you need to be able to pierce their shell or else they will never leave you alone. I am a veteran -- submarines - a lot of nerds on submarines -- my Officer of the Deck had attended the war college as his shore duty prior to coming to the sub, and when things were quiet and slow we would discuss all sorts of topics, and having just graduated from the war college he would often talk about military strategy and such. It's hard to convince someone you're not to be messed with if you have shields and the other guys have spears
"in war, aggression wins" mfs when they try to siege a well defended and supplied fort/castle. There's a reason that successful sieges were generally done by the geniuses of history with a large personnel advantage and they still often struggled. "Aggression wins" mfs when they overextend into enemy territory getting their supply lines cut and then get slaughtered.
"It's why nukes work - nukes protect us only because of how strong they are offensively." No. You are exchanging a reduced chance of a conventional war for a higher chance of nuclear conflict. That's not an intelligent trade-off.
If you want to know what the controversial part is, it about Google work from home and "normal" office hours being non competitive with a startup having staff work at office and long hours. Pause video at 11:32 and read transcript.
Wes he meant to say offensive. U never wanna play defense unless u have to. You always want to be on offense and making the decisions. Whereas defense you're having to react to the other guys offense. U play defense a lot you'll end up dead.
Whether you want to play offence or defence depends entirely on the cost of both which fluctuates depending on the context. There are some contexts within with defensive measures are much faster, easier and cheaper to develop so anyone trying to attack you just gets immediately thwarted and then suffers from the lost resources they spent on the attack.
@@stillness0072 In stalemate wars, the attacker is taking greater losses. But in mobile war, the casualties are often much, much greater for the defender. Consider German vs Polish, French, Greek and Soviet losses in 1939-41 and then British, American and Soviet vs German losses in 1944-45.
But you know why it’s not like a nuclear deterrent. Because nukes are hard, proliferation can be controlled and MAD is a thing. Where as with slaughter bots none of those things apply
@@aaronabuusama I fear most is biological weapons. if the virus was designed by AI? the defense is at a time disadvantage against the rapid mutation of the virus. Of course, specialized AI can find compounds that bind to protein pockets, but they cannot be manufactured immediately.
@@alph4966 but thats not like an 24 months away problem. And to be honest its not like actors that would do that don’t already have resources to create that already
2:13 Actually, about the 10M-token context window thing, in the full version the host said in the beginning of Schmidt's speech: "In the short term--which I think you defined is the next year or two."
Did you speed up the replay? Keep in mind that people speed up the replay of your video and then they have to adjust it down each time you replay the video sped up. Just keep it at normal speed.
Bangalore, India has organizations that provide system programming and system support for the customers of American companies. Part of India's space program is in Bangalore as well.
OK, this guy is frightening. He talks about unleashing swarms of AI murderbots on the world without batting an eye. You think they won't do it back? He'll be less smug when he sees the black swarm coming over the horizon towards his mansion in Atherton or whatever. Smug arms-dealing warhawks like this will be the end of us. Like in the original Frank Herbert Dune books, it's not the AIs that are dangerous, it's the people who end up wielding them that is the problem.
of course they will do it back but what he's saying is that if you innovate in war technology now. You will forever be ahead and your defence of drone swarms that can take out any long range artillery or tank troops trying to invade. That changes war completely and seeing Ukraine getting bombed to the stone age will be a thing of the past. As all wars will be fought differently. Russia will never again have ships or artillery at the scale it has it now because it is no longer effective. They will never catch up to drone tech. Look what they're doing right now. Desperately trying to buy in drones from foreign powers like China. But that's the old stuff they're getting sold and will be massively outpaced by anything Ukraine will have access to. Its a bit like trying to out compute the competition with old desktop machines that needs lots of power. Modern mobile chipsets are so cheap. You can massively outperform any old machines for a tiny fraction of the cost. Remember he's not talking about a Terminator like war of machines advancing through cities. He's talking about drones as iron domes that offer massive defence against traditional artillery and when that fails all you have is super powers throwing missiles at each other that get exploded in the air. ITs more about gesturing than real destruction. Drones may one day be used to invade countries but it has never been the way for Europe and US to invade its way to control other countries in modern times. We do it much smarter through economics, trade and that eliminates the need for any war. These old super powers like Russia are still operating under old rules that power must be flexed militarily and most of the world doesn't agree. I don't even think China agrees but China has to be careful because its value system does not match the US and its difficult for the two to really be best buddies but I think we've done a great job at least trying since world war 2. Just trust in the process and never stop being ready for the worst. We need people like him to create these cutting edge solutions as even the US still struggles to change its mindset from needing more land invading potential rather than more border protecting potential but I really think Ukraine will serve as a template going forward and why its so important to protect Ukraine showing the world that invading countries is not the way to win anything but more enemies.
ur really dumb for one thing. Nation states are fictional, existing only in human skulls. Therefore the solution is first to dispell those fictions. All your stated logic/words rest on fictions
@@ClayMann We ourselves are not always on the side of sweetness and light either. Justifying ever increasing escalation because "we are the good guys" is damn shaky ground. Also, "they will never catch up", see history: "The Soviet Union will be forever behind in nuclear weapons" argument. And, "Russia [thinks] power must be flexed militarily", see "defense" budget of US vs the next 10 highest spending countries added together, count number of military bases worldwide, etc. Our power is military and financial, not righteousness. Hey, I like being on the winning side as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend it's not a no-holds-barred, dog-eat-dog geopolitical nightmare out there. Nobody comes out smelling like roses.
@1bearsfan It was taken down apparently due to comments he made about Google policy of TOO much catering to employee happiness and health, citing that as a reason Google had started to lag behind in the AI race. He poo poo'd remote work and companies that we're too permissive on teleworking. It was his frank opinion, but I didn't think it warranted such a harsh reaction. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but maybe as a former CEO of the company, he shouldn't have been so candid about that.
@@jasonbartlett1357 Ah, that's relatable. I think a lot of people remember the videos of people in tech going to "work" and posting videos of themselves sleeping and drinking wine on the company's dime.
no matter your views, the guy helped the most corrupt country in the world. He thinks he is helping and being a good guy. Never make weapons, that's how you help war, but not helping it happen...
This guy seriously creeps me out. He talks about unleashing killer AI robots like it's no big deal. What happens when they turn on us? He won't be so cocky when they're swarming his fancy mansion. Warmongers like him, selling AI weapons
I have always been suspicious of the literature around AI and AI warfare. Because they always make it seem that how we got to that point was something that was avoidable. Or didnt need to happen. Thats bullshit. AI Weapons are a neccessity. Because we humans disagree with each other. Lets take nukes... sure the US was the first one through the breach. But any honest reflection on how nuclear physics came to prominence knows it was a matter of time. The US was simply better positioned to build the first devices. Coming back to AI weapons. Ukraine is a leading front on these weapons being developed. Why? because russia did not think a sovereign nation had a right to not pick a different team. Now there citizens are fighting for their survival and are doing so because they are unwilling to go back under the boot of russia. Unfortunately they are the upstarts and russai is the big mighty military. So the ukrainians have to learn to fight them outside the box. Enter AI to solve problems they have. Problems that if they dont solve they loose. I said all of that to point out that eric was not being flippant. On the contrary your the flippant one. Your being flippant because you seem to think its enough to simply decide not to build them and they wont get built. The truth is. We huamn beings keep putting ourselves in positions where we have to continually climb higher up the tech tree to find something that looks like a solution. and apply it while knowing we dont understand the ramifications but the problems are severe enough that we are willing to live with them.
@@jasonbirchoff2605 So you believe that escalating military action with any kind of technology, no matter how dangerous, especially in the long term, is completely permissible, justified, and the only possible alternative?
Maybe… but the thing Perplexity identifies is his comments on Work from Home policies sabotaging Googles competitiveness…. SURELY this is NOT the real reason???
@@sondrax That is the reason. But "banned" is a strong term. This is a Stanford vid and Google has more than enough influence with them to have them remove a vid that they don't like. It's that simple.
Minute 18-something, Schmidt meant that a Good Defensing System (related to what he's exposing) consists in a Good Offensive (Dissuasive) system: AI drones working like mobile Molotov against invading tanks. The problem is, eventually, military imperialistic powers could adapt military strategies and doctrines.
Amazing reporting Wes! Keep up the great work! You are my go to resource for high level relative AI commentary. Any chance you'll have the Reed talk next?
18:00 no he was very clear. Offensive you have all the time in the world to make plans, logistics etc. Defensive - you have moments to assess damage, losses, create a reactive strategy - deploy it.
People, that complain about fast video speed... please adapt, when you start to think about how to slow down the video... go to the settings press two buttons and make 0,75 and it starts to talk normally. In life you can't expect and ask some1 else to adapt to your preferences.... live your life, do how ever you please, but dont interupt anyone else.
I respectfully disagree although I completely understand where you're coming from. Compression really messed with the audio quality for me though. I'd prefer he'd have posted at normal speed and let the consumer (the viewer) change the speed to be faste if they wanted.It's certainly not our right to demand anything of wes but if he wants people to have a better viewer experience I think he should let the viewer decide how they want to view. If the quality sounded good slowed down I'd be more likely to agree, but compression really messed it up for me.
federated training just means splits up the amount of floating point operations (flops) by splitting up the training data. He was just saying with smaller payloads requiring fewer flops that genius idea of reporting based on the number of flops required is non-deterministic. Love how he points out the power problem which can take decades to solve even if we have the infra today to push our power grids to the limits and thanks to the chip act we have handed that problem to china to solve by implicitly limiting what power they can consume constrained by the number of chips they have (hmm...). Thanks for sharing man, ur podcast is awesome.
TLLM's are not likely to produce AGI, they are basically, fundamentally, random word (token) generators. Set the parameters for the choosing of the random token (temp, top k, etc.) to high and you get gibberish from even the best model. Set to low and you get exact same outputs to inputs. Set within a decent range and you get random tokens that are limited in quantity choice that adheres to matching of a trained pattern.
What he is referring to that the attacker always has the advantage appears to be some kind of metaphysical law, if you believe in that. But you can see it everywhere and it's the main problem law enforcement has to face. They can't do anything until there is either sufficient evidence for a planned attack/crime, or until an "attack" has already happened and damage has been done. It's a basic problem with the attack/defense mechanic, because defense is a reaction to an action.
He said Google was losing in the AI innovation race because Googlers are now working remotely and their output and collaboration is happening more slowly. That's it. People were upset.
@@joythought Hmm, makes sense I guess. Google has become too bureaucratic with too many DEI committees and not enough engineers with a founder-level work ethic.
The technologies created in the construction of new AICC, can be as much a factor of development in all areas of life as the Apollo Program. In the '60s-'70s we had Project Apollo, now we have Project AGI. In the '60s-'70s we had the Apollo project, now we have the much larger, AGI project.
