Explaining the 2020 U.S. Election - Four Theories of Victory 

JJ is beginning to look like a radical nineteenth century politician with that haircut

"This makes the Democratic Candidate technically the safest pony to bet on" Actually it's a donkey

I have never seen such a civilized comment section about politics and elections. This is nice

Biden has an unenthusiastic majority, Trump has an enthusiastic minority.

The Four Parts of JJ. •The Moustache (RIP) •The Hair •The Incredibly stereotypical Canadian Accent •Francophobia

Imagine Jesse Ventura as President. That would just make this world even weirder. Two Wrestling figures as President while the WWE collapses. Eventually Vince MacMahon becomes the 47th President of the United States. There is an annual Slam fest between the GOP and the Dems. The latest being Bernie Sanders up against Zombie Reagan.

South Park was right. there are Canadians who say "A Boot"

comments: peace was always an option replies: peace was never an option

Jeb! is gonna win all 538 electoral votes, mark my words. EDIT: ayo check out my channel for cool vids about politics please my children are starving

I'm jealous of JJ's mind, and his hair.

2020: “The Democrats have a near lock on the presidency” The Voter: “Hey I’ve heard this one before!”

Four Theories of Victory Kanye West: "Hold my beer!"

J.J.: Joe Biden is relatively uncontraversial Joe Biden: Hold my... uhhhh...

As a card carrying New Democrat of forty years standing, you are the first conservative commentator to logically look at the political landscape in a manner that is well thought out and without the emotion and dog whistles that most modern political pundits use. Much respect.

You could've created a poll for your viewers, to choose which argument they find the most compelling.

The end result ended up being some combination of all of these.

Best part of Saturday is having another J.J. video to watch!

3:19 IDENTITY THEFT IS NOT A JOKE JJ. MILLIONS OF FAMILIES SUFFER EVERY YEAR

Finally some in the middle nuanced political analysis, more of this please.

Come to anarcho primitivism. no more politics, we eat rocks

“White people living in rural areas” Me who lives on a reservation in which everyone is a conservative: *B R U H*

During crisis, the "Don't change horses in midstream" theme can be pretty powerful. I think all bets are off of conventional theories for 2020 due to Coronavirus. Not only for what's on the voters' minds, but the pure logistics of holding the election itself.

Well done, our political views are quite different (I’m progressive and you are conservative) but you stayed neutral to the very end! Well done!

One thing I'm going to push back on is the point about Americans being "moderates". Though most Americans would self identify as "moderates," this has very little to do with what policies they support or what politicians they vote for. Whether an American self identifies as a "moderate, liberal, or conservative" will not necessarily give you a clear picture of their ideology because Americans absolutely suck with political labels.

Biden probably already forgot that he’s running.

I know JJ has a good and smart audience, but I just feel that this comment section might turn into a dumpster fire.

Nice video! i really like that, in general, even though you have more conservative views you don't force them down our throats. You manage stay impartial and unbiased just reporting the situation from both sides of the argument.(well, you're a political reporter tho so you have some experience in staying impartial). Really love these political commentary videos without the politics and your unbiased style of political commenting. Great job and stay true!

“Trump’s approval has gone up amid the coronavirus pandemic” yeah... about that...

Legitimate reason to vote for Biden: his middle name. Robinette definitely belongs to the list, along with the greats: Gamaliel, Milhous, Delano, Baines and Birchard.

People often say "I hate trump, BUT his tax cut saved me money" "i hate him, BUT the trade deal was great" "I don't like him, but..."

4:31 "Uncontroversial." Are you sure about that?

The Cartoon you showed for “White Americans that live in Rural areas” was Dwight Schrute

Hey! Epoch Times, STOP ADVERTISING ON EVERYONE'S VIDEOS!

It’s true that a majority of Americans are center-left- not socialist, but open to social democracy. The Sanders campaign depended entirely on non-voters entering the process, which did not happen to the degree needed to win.

The USA is a center right country by all standards that are reliable.

I’m an American ... I stumbled across your RU-vid page and a I’ve watched several of your videos. I am a dual citizen ... my mother was born in Canada, and many members of her family still lives there. Recently, I was able to apply for, and was awarded my Canadian citizenship. With that said, I am learning a great deal about Canadian history and Canadian society from your videos. I thank you for that.

We need JJ on the Joe Rogan and then call it the JJJoe Rogan podcast

"Uncontroversial, relatively well liked." well that didn't age too well

Honestly yes this is the most complete and compact summary of the us election. Now let's see🍿🍿

Two years later, I would say that the theory that Trump has changed politics for the foreseeable future is true, but it actually worked in _Biden's_ favor. What's interesting to me is the contrast between Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and how their public perceptions influenced their performances against Trump. Biden these days isn't exciting, and he's always been gaffe-prone, but he's warm and agreeable. It's not hard to find anecdotes of common people who've met him and were moved with his kindness. He has also been well-liked by his colleagues, even by those who disagreed with his politics. He formed close friendships with John McCain and _Strom friggin' Thurmond_ (of course, in Biden's younger days when he was more conservative, he had some rather concerning views on segregation). When McCain passed, he spoke of how the two of them would strongly disagree with each other on the senate floor, then go to dinner together. For the most part, he's pretty much been in the dead center of the Democratic Party - as the party moved left, he moved with it. He's seen as a moderate and is a moderate. He wants to be able to make deals with Republicans, as he had been able to do in the senate. Progressives weren't excited about him, but voted for him regardless. On the other hand, he was able to pull in more conservatives who considered him a safe choice than Clinton had. The public perception of Hillary Clinton (and to a lesser extent, Bill as well) has never been particularly accurate - but it's interestingly less accurate on the left than the right. While she's not the radical socialist that Republicans see her as, leftists tend to see her as a conservative in progressive clothing, which simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny (unless you have this utopian image of Europe as a leftist paradise because of healthcare and college). It's easy to point out that she voted in favor of a few of Bush's notoriously terrible policies - notably the Patriot Act and the bill that eventually authorized his eventual invasion of Iraq - but when you zoom out and view the whole picture, she had one of the more progressive voting records in the senate. This isn't a mere coincidence - she's historically always been overall to the left of her husband, Obama, Biden, and and the median of the party. The explanation is simple - she's not charismatic or outwardly warm. She has a matter-of-fact personality and is cautious with her rhetoric. She doesn't portray herself as someone "you want to have a beer with," and comes off as disingenuous when she speaks of her concerns. Her campaign wasn't full of vaguely big ideas, and rather than saying why you should be excited about Hillary Clinton, her campaign focused on why you shouldn't vote for Donald Trump. While she has a decently sized fanbase, she wasn’t exciting enough to pull in outsiders. From my own experience as the rare Bernie voter who actually became an enthusiastic Hillary supporter, what began to warm me up and eventually win me over wasn’t from her own speeches or rhetoric, but from Bill Clinton's excellent endorsement speech at the 2016 Democratic Convention. Hillary lost the electoral college to Trump, who spoke of big but vague ideas. "Make America Great Again," "Drain the Swamp," "Build the Wall," and most disturbingly, "lock her up." Fast forward to 2020. Biden trounces Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Why? Warning: the next paragraph contains strong liberal opinions. Trump was a reckless and uniquely bad president. He had a messy administration and open disdain for large swaths of the American public. The status quo hadn't been popular, but dear god it was better than what had replaced it. When Trump "drained the swamp," he filled it with sewage so awfully contaminated that people wanted the swamp back. He made COVID-19 into an issue about his popularity rather than a public health emergency - if he had handled it competently, it could have won him the election.

"Bland, uncontroversial" That did not age well.

Remember the time that J.J. has a mustache?

Here's a theory I've never heard from anyone on RU-vid or the mainstream: Bernie Sanders was the moderate in 2016. - moderate on foreign policy (Clinton was seen as an extreme warmonger even by US standards) - moderate on gun control (liberal but slightly to the right of Clinton since he comes from a rural state) - moderate on immigration (made both pro- and anti- immigration votes, depending on details) - moderate on trade (Clinton had to flip-flop on a major trade deal because it was so unpopular) - Single Payer healthcare is the worldwide standard and supported by (iirc) 50% of Trump voters (counting independents who voted Trump)

"he's cartoonishly old" LMAO

best case scenario, everyone dies.

The problem with the first theory is that Biden doesn’t have any energy and doesn’t inspire as much support as trump

Tbh Trump will literally tear down Joe Biden. Joe biden will honestly not able to stand good in a debate. Damn he couldn't even stand Bernie

“Joe is not controversial” has not aged well *EDIT* thanks for all the likes! I guess I was pretty naive to think this wouldn’t cause a huge argument hahaha. This is coming from someone who will probably vote Biden come November

10:00 The "Trump voters being shy" explanation of why there is such a significant disconnect between his popularity and his share of the vote reminds me of what I heard years ago from a friend who was in politics in West Virginia. He said that WV voted for George W. Bush both times, but if you asked, you could never seem to find anyone in WV who voted for him. WV has a long history of being a Democrat stronghold, and people vote Democrat very often because their family have been so affiliated for multiple generations. But West Virginians tend to be more socially and fiscally conservative as individuals, and so the state has stayed to the right as the Democratic party has moved further left. As a consequence, WV Democrat politicians tend to be more centrist.

You've presented four logical, (and also very thoughtfully crafted) outcome scenarios - Do you think (maybe in a follow up video) you might elaborate a bit more on the indicators, or red flags to look out for in each of these? It's a big request, but I'm interested to see more of your analysis here. Great vid!

I almost forgot a Canadian was explaining all of this better than most Americans would be able to.

I think the funniest thing is that no matter who I’ve talked to on either opinionated side of the aisle, no one like either choice

The working class is nationalistic you see this also in the UK with the loss of labour

Great analysis: I love how evenhanded you manage to be.

Shrek is a Democrat Trump: *wants to drain the swamp* Shrek: “WHAT ARE YOU DOING IN MY SWAMP?”

In the end it was really JJ’s final point about holes in the red wall that did it. Trump losing Arizona and Georgia was the real deciding factor of the election

Getting anything from the popular vote in America seems so irrelavent. I mean if I'm in California why would I even bother to go cast my vote for the Republican candidate?

3:19 took me a few seconds to realize that the "white people in rural sections" was Dwight 😂😂

10:00 That was likely Bernie supporters who hated the idea of Clinton so much, they figured they'd vote for Trump, even though they disliked him as well. Remember, we must make a distinction between Trump supporters and Trump voters.

The last statement ended up being true. Trump changed the landscape so radically, he turned Georgia blue.

3:19 is that supposed to be Dwight Schrute?

JJ: has the student immigration flag as his computer wallpaper Me: I see you are a man of culture as well (literally, he talks about culture)

At 4:03 there is a Brazilian reference to a national sweet: Paçoca Paçoquita is a brand of sweets heavily focused on paçoca, which is made of peanuts, mandioca flour and sugar. The name has indigenous roots on the Tupi language; poçoc (to crumble, shatter), related to the texture of the sweet (yes, it will easily crumble if improperly handled) Nice reference, JJ!

The funny part is trump used to be somewhat liberal

Thank you for making another video that you know appeals to YOUR base, J.J.. While they may not be your favorites to make, they are truly well done. I truly hope your channel continues to grow as a result.

By the way Why you don't make a video or videos about The British empire Colonies and where are they now

I feel like this might be another 2016 election.

Here for the “hindsight is 2020” joke. As with most things, no one theory was the whole truth, but my money is on the “Trump is uniquely terrible” theory. While my personal experience is no statistical metric, I know many of my conservative friends hated Trump, but not as much as Clinton in 2016. Yet they were further alienated by 2020 and voted for Biden.

This is the greatest explanation of American politics that I have ever heard. Well done sir 👍

I love how unideological this was, without being dry.

I'm so glad that you started uploading your videos earlier now, so I don't have to wait to Sunday to watch it. Thanks for it and for the video itself JJ!

Did he really just say that Joe Biden is uncontroversial?

In my perspective as a "far-left voter" voter as J.J described I see the election rn as sort of a 50/50 between the two candidates with a slight edge to Trump if I had to choose one. Trump to me has an ability to drive out his base very enthusiastically that I feel like Biden doesn't have. Biden to me seems just like an establishment democrat who wants to return to normal. The problem is that "normal" is the circumstance that got Trump elected in the first place. Gridlock in the federal government and no meaningful change for the average working-class Americans. If Trump can portray Biden the same he did with Clinton as just someone part of the establishment who shipped away jobs to China and things like that then I think Trump can win. However, this election is different from the coronavirus pandemic so I can't say for sure who will win in November. If Biden does end up winning in my view it will be due to a high number of people particularly suburbanites who will just vote for him, not for his policies but because they dislike Trump so much that they'll just vote for the person with the best chance of beating Trump.

TBF Joe Rogan was talking about the debates, not the election as a whole

As Canadians, we watch you Americans having an election as entertainment.

I like that "white people living in rural locations" was Dwight Schrute

I voted Trump in the last election for one reason he was the greater of the two evils in my humble opinion same as this year

As an American 🇺🇸 from TN- thanks for the video! Cant wait to see whats next. Both on the channel and in the U.S - I mean the world.

I can explain the 2020 US Presidential Election as well! Two people run for president, one is an incumbent, the other selected by the establishment because they're too afraid of pushing their moderates to the opposing side. Two more people from fringe parties may run but they won't get very many votes as their votes leech from more palatable candidates and may cause unintended spoilers. And Americans vote for some --MPs-- I mean congressmen, but not every state is running an election for some reason.

Honestly either way it's still gonna be one hella of an election

It's fascinating watching this post election. Especially after how he handled Covid.

In conclusion: we need better candidates

fifth theory: civil war

Should make a follow up video, what does a post trump right look like?

Blinkist says, "$6.25 monthly ¶ $74.99 billed annually in your first year" Does that mean that on day 8 they charge for the entire year in one $75 lump sum?

Your channel is one of the best channels on youtube. Well made, entertaining, informative and unbiased - keep up the good work :)

Left wing populism>right wing populism

It’s kinda cool to watch this more than a year after the 2020 elections. It’s fun comparing what people thought would happen and what actually happened. Also a quick note: Biden stuttering is so hilarious. Like, great guy, but still funny

Theory 3 is why my black democrat mom is voting trump. She’s pissed that Obama didn’t change anything, joes sucks, yada yada yada.

Your election videos are my favourite!!! I think this video of yours is one of my favourites you’ve ever made. :D

I’m a Republican and I think we need to start reaching out to new groups of voters. JJ is very right when he discussed the Democrats broad coalition and how that helps them win elections.

So it turns out all 4 theories were correct.

DJT's base is quite solid... and there are a lot of folks to scared to admit their support. You are underestimating the amount of polarization, and potential for violence.

留學移民 on the monitor to the right says Study abroad immigrant...if anyone was wondering.

Meanwhile Mexico: So ... about that wall.

I used to live in a very rural town and now I live in the city. The life style of these two places are INSANELY different and I really believe it's the biggest contributor to political views. We live differently and it makes sense we want to be governed differently. Please do not hate other people for their opposing political view. It's what the man wants you to do.

I'm an American sitting in my apartment in Seoul, Korea, learning about the US election ,which I can't be bothered to follow, from a guy in Canada. Sounds about right.

Victor Davis Hanson makes the strongest rock solid case for trump imo He's going to win again. Biden isn't going to get the turnout Democrats are counting on

As a conservative, I just wanted to say thank you. Thank you for being such a logical, well-spoken conservative when talking about stuff like this. I feel like a bunch of people in Washington are building a bad reputation of our party by just not speaking smart. Thank you.