I think that says a lot about paladin compared to warlock. Mech, control, non-mech midrange, etc. Paladin has so many decks that,can efficiently climb to legend that dont require much/if more dust than he is dumping into his Renolock. Hell, its the same amount of legendary cards used and only a few epics to make paladin really strong in Leviathan, Lightforged Cariel, Mr. Smite and Samuro. That shell can put together a variety of decks that are fun and good.
for those wondering: the chance to not get rush on ivus with 7 mana is 128/2187 or 5,853% (inaccurate when doing calculations I didn't consider the +2/+2 as one of the rolls nor did I think that once a trait was found it would be eliminated from the pool and not be a possible chance of rolling the trait again).
How did you calculate this? I've been trying to find out how to do it, but I've come short every time. Or rather, you could just calculate the likelihood of every single outcome, but that can't be optimal.
I actually made a mistake the chance is higher than I portrayed there, I'll edit it. the gist of it: you have 2/3 chance to not roll into rush and in what manner you roll doesn't matter so there is no implication of order so all cases are included except the ones where there is rush so considering all that: the 1st draw you have 2/3 chance to not hit rush, which is 66,66%~. follow that up with the second draw which is the same where you have 2/3 chance to not hit rush. but remember you already excluded 1/3 of cases before. so now you exclude 1/3 of the cases for the remaining cases, in other words the taunt and divine shield roll, so again from that 66.66% you take the 2/3s of because 1/3 of both tuant and divine roll could also be rush which brings you to 44.44% chance to not hit rush with 2 mana, and you continue to do this until you get to the desired amount of mana. As you can see it is always 1/3 of the cases that you exclude which makes it so you remain with 2 possibilities at every roll thus every time you roll there is a 2/3 chance to not hit rush. to calculate this you simply do (2/3)^amount of mana, which in this case was 7 thus (2/3)^7 = 0.05853 -> 5.853% to not have rush if you want to exclude the cases of only taunt and only divine shield which didn't happen in the video then you end up with 126/2187 which is 5.761% chance to have happen to you what happened to trump and only roll taunt and divine shield on ivus with 7 mana.
@@darkgxk I'm not that familiar with the card but if I understand correctly from observing the outcome for every mana left it can get 2/2, taunt, divine shield or rush. So there are four outcomes not three. And the problem is that it can't get taunt divine shield or rush two times, which is what creates all the permutations and makes it hard to calculate.
@@maskarone oh my I completely glossed over the fact that the same keyword can't be given twice and that the +2/+2 is included in the roll as well that does indeed change things up quite a bit and definitely complicates things. then you would need separate odds for each possibility, getting no/all/missing one/missing two traits. for the 7 mana: getting no traits except +2/+2 should be the easiest of the bunch as it is a single case that happens. getting 1 trait: 3*mana possibilities = 21 (getting 1 trait on 1 roll rest of the rolls +2/+2 so essentially on every point of mana you can roll on one of 3 traits and fill the blancs with +2/+2) for 2 traits: it gets a bit tricky here. for the 1st mana roll if it's a trait you have for those 1/3 options left for the remainder from which one is the +2/+2. So you essentially have something similar to the 1 trait scenario. for every mana after 1st trait roll you have 2 possibilities to hit a second trait*3(for all branches) or go down a level with +2/+2 and have another go at the 1/3 to hit a trait. thus 6*mana-1 = 36 possibilities + if your first roll is +2/+2 then we repeat this process if you hit a trait for your second mana roll/3rd mana roll up to mana-1(because we need at least 2 traits for this part), single out the possibilities and add them up. so with the 36 from before + 30(1st trait hit at 2nd mana)+24+18+12+6(1st trait hit at 6th mana) = 126 possibilities. 1/3 is with rush so 84 possibilities to get 2 traits without rush.
@@darkgxk What is even worse is that the probabilities are for the possibilities even in the first scenario with 1 trait are unique, as if the trait is discovered last we have (1/4)^7 but if it is discovered first it is (1/4)*(1/3)^6. Getting all the probabilities for all possibilities seems quite daunting so I made a program which got the 2.87% for one specific trait to not show up with 7 chances.
i had a paladin arena run where i drafted 4 mooncatchers right away. the rest of the draft i grabbed every dredge i could and ended up with 11 wins. it really is amazing
7:40 the moment you see the legendary outline you just know Trump is choosing it, it's so much value right?? For me Lone Champion was the obvious choice there
Lone champion is good but I he didnt lose the board too hard since he had answers in hand. He's the mayor, he cares more about longgame then whats going on at the moment if he can afford to wait a bit longer. And Lokholar ended up being high impact that game anyways
I've seen comments on other vids about how this f2p has gone way longer then any other Trump has done, so I'm glad to know that being f2p is super hard now and it's not just me
It is hard, but its not nearly as hard as trump is making it. He is trying to force one of the worst classes in the game. If you are planning on keeping an account, he should have gone with Paladin, Mage or DH since they are all pretty affordable and wouldnt require him to DE any epics and legendary cards he got to try and make Renolock work. Mech mage is super cheap since it only has 1 legendary, which can often be discovered since they can add at least 12 mechs to their hand. Mech Paladin is really strong too, though it generally runs 2-4 legendary, and only 1 can be discovered.
I've been playing Hearthstone since closed beta and have yet to get 12 wins in an Arena run. Granted, I haven't played Arena in about 5 years, but still wild that this F2P run is doing better than I've mustered.
1:13:26 Why would you draw first and then dredge in this situation? Maybe you find a good 2 drop to help you out if you dredge first, that hurted. Overall such an insane value run though
a couple of years ago i was facing kripp in HS arena, after the match ended i checked his stream to see if it was the real kripparian, and he was saying "I can´t believe i lost this, i didn´t played around his secret (secret trial) because it wasnt discovered, he actually pick that card during his draft..." I basically won that match because i didn´t had arena score and some people play around you having optimal plays when in reality most of us are actually as good as monkeys picking and playing cards at random.
I made a simple program that ran for 10 000 000 iterations and it came up with the probability to miss one specific ability with 7 chances to be 2.87%.
then again my code is the equivalent of running a block of cheese through a wood chipper and calling it shredded so really I could be completely off the mark
Does anyone know what deck absolutely DESTROYS paladin in standard? I' so freaking sick of losing to that braindead crap just because every one of their goddamn minions has divine shield and tons of stats
Starfish is really strong against them, or find a deck that can take the board first. Most dont have any aoe besides cariel and the occasional Samuro. They are much more prevalent now because DH really punished them in the early game.
I'm getting so frustrated in arena these days. Before that last nerf,my average was about 6 wins. After the nerf Idk if it's even 4. Every 3rd run ends up as 0-3 or 1-3. Idk wtf is going on. Before the nerf my opponents had stronger decks than they do now,but at least I got them too. Nowadays my opponents get little bit weaker decks than they used to while I get much much weaker decks. Is it only me or anyone else having the same issues?
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is variance bias - there are only a handful of people truly averaging 6 wins on each server. So you are either one of the best arena players out there or you are misremembering your previous average
@@marshalls951 Today I've had demon hunter with Gangplank,weapon,shark,alekstraza,2 inquizitors,a bunch of high quality small removals and minions,and go 0-2 to freaking almost exactly the same paladins with their ppisoned 2-4 murloc and then blessing on kings. One of them even had that 3-4 that copies the last spell you targeted your minion with,so it became 7-8. How do you beat that? I ended up as 4-2 cause my deck was really strong but it's sad cause noone should ever be 0-2 with that kind of deck
I have been absolutely getting shafted as well, had about 1500 gold saved, had an average of 7-8 wins before the nerfs, now Im lucky if I get 3. Somehow my drafts are always garbage compared to my opponents.
