Fluke: chance, chaos and why everything we do matters | LSE Event

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Brian Klaas will explore how our world really works, driven by strange interactions and random events. How much difference does our decision to hit the snooze button make? Did one couple's vacation really change the course of the twentieth century? What are the smallest accidents that have tilted the course of history itself?
Speaker:
Dr Brian Klaas
#Fluke #Events #London
Full details/attend: www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2024/01/...
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Опубликовано:

28 янв 2024

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Комментарии : 41

@americanexpat8792 4 месяца назад

Fantastic! As a retired 66-year old engineer, I saw this play out many times during my life in both my career and personally. In fact, I had a 1 in 10 million illness due to a series of injections that caused an auto-immune reaction. It totally changed my life. Fortunately, I recovered for the most part. But it probably denied me the chance to have a kid. All because of a fluke!

@americanexpat8792 4 месяца назад

The reality is that the most important thing that happens in our life - where we were born, to whom, when, etc. will determine more of our life than any other factor. Humans struggle mightily win this concept. Born somewhere else and your life could change radically. That’s a fluke. We are not in control of our fate.

@UUBrahman 5 месяцев назад

Klaas is correct that we worship economic growth in democracies, specifically Gross Domestic Product per Capita, while a slower sustainable rate of growth may lead to a better long term outcome.

@dagmarueberfeld-lang4088 5 месяцев назад

brilliant talk and thank you LSE for this great presentation. Another one on my pile of books to indulge in, I'm afraid.

@useraccount3448 5 месяцев назад

I hope to be reborn in my next birth around these academics. It's fascinating to listen them.

@asafhussain6779 5 месяцев назад

A great talk and presentation...the paradox in that there is that as pattern primed beings there is a pattern in the pattern..even the outlier is a pattern..

@annag5458 4 месяца назад

An excellent lecture and presentation : thank you Dr. Klaas

@youngchoi246 4 месяца назад

Incredibly well thought out and explained presentation. I would love to see someone like professor Klass making policy decisions for our country.

@BestFitSquareChannel 4 месяца назад

Brilliant. Well done. Multidisciplinary approach outstanding!

@kennethhymes9734 5 месяцев назад

Compelling. If my great grandfather had not blown himself up trying to clear a tree stump on a small island off the northwest coast of the US, his daughters would not have left the island and gone to college, and my father would not have been born, and this comment would not exist (no tragedy on that count ;) ).

@americanexpat8792 4 месяца назад

Another place where optimization failed us was the world-wide supply change during the pandemic. Great when there are no disturbances, but disastrous when there are. You want to have some ‘slack’ in any system. I’ve done a lot of ‘optimization’ in my oil-refining career. The way you get around this is to use Monte-Carlo analysis to determine how ‘robust’ the system really is and what are the odds of a bad result. I am in the process of finishing a book on this topic as we speak.

@_jake_doran 4 месяца назад

Beginning: 3:06

@afihaileywibowo1095 4 месяца назад

Thank you!😊

@AlokAsthana1954 4 месяца назад

Nice. An even more exhaustive, and more logical, explanation comes from author Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

@DharmendraRaiMindMap 5 месяцев назад

Interesting

@ilirllukaci5345 5 месяцев назад

Yes.

@maxheadrom3088 4 месяца назад

Karl Popper made this argument on his 1950s book "The Open Society And Its Enemies". BTW, I remember Prof. Klaas on Cunk on Earth and it's excellent that the idea of randomness is becoming more popular.

@maxheadrom3088 4 месяца назад

It's not only because of the hotel - Stintson knew the history of Kyoto and the historic and spiritual importance the city had and has for the Japanese people.

@voltaire3001 4 месяца назад

This compares well with Neil Postman's "Amusing Ourselves to Death." 🎯🏆

@DonnaGisellaTranchel 4 месяца назад

Why do I think of The Horrible Trump? 💙💙💙💙💙🦩✨

@abubakarjabo6808 5 месяцев назад

Some issues you have power to either reduce them or eliminate them ,the idea of resilient is trying to justify certain things which are more or less harmful to Human existence

@shaynelee487 26 дней назад

Leigh Jenco looks like Ally Sheedy. Brian Klaas thinks like Nassim Taleb.

@DonnaGisellaTranchel 4 месяца назад

Thank You! Fascinating!💙💙💙💙💙🦩✨

@iainmackenzieUK 4 месяца назад

I suppose, in this context, I see social media as a sand pile and I am trying to avoid social and psychological catastrophe by remaining (mostly) disengaged from it.

@veramann 4 месяца назад

It would be interesting to know if Brian Klaas and other experts have already predicted the next American coupe and the second Great Depression due to the high US national debt.

@AbdallahBotan 5 месяцев назад

As a Muslim, we consider this chaos as destiny or fiat.

@TheLucanicLord 4 месяца назад

1:10:53 Questioner doesn't have a clue. He's using resilience in the hurr durr everyone's a snowflake sense. BK is using it in a system design sense. 1:12:04 Slow but steady growth may be better for the vast majority of people, but with a booms and bust system some people will do very well out of it, taking big profits on the up and hiding behind limited liability & bailouts when it all goes _nichons vers l'haute._

@patrickpalmer-thomas2660 4 месяца назад

it just seems a bit basic. there’s whole schools of academic that absolutely and necessarily must include random fluctuations in modelling. say “i don’t know”

@danmosley4387 4 месяца назад

39:44

@yp77738yp77739 4 месяца назад

This is exactly why I have such an issue with anthropomorphic climate change. Having done a little finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics in my early career, I know there is nothing that can accurately predict climate systems over anything beyond a few days. Correlation does not mean causatIon.

@brucemclennan9715 2 месяца назад

Is she not capable of doing his intro without reading her phone?

@Lalallalu 3 месяца назад

Not one comment here on how the dropping of the bombs on Japan gets trivialised - it's a by-the-by in the course of the presentation. The whole anecdote stinks 😣

@TheLucanicLord 4 месяца назад

Interesting, but I could see some people becoming paralyzed by fear of unforeseen consequences. This tendency to overquantify social sciences sounds like another name for _physics envy._

@patrickpalmer-thomas2660 4 месяца назад

this guy needs to study stats and psychology.

@kennethhymes9734 5 месяцев назад

I dunno. Sociologically and politically, if this is an argument for anything, it is reducing the scale of human communities and institutions, and engaging in massive population reduction. Because the only benignly actionable insight here is that we increase the power of random events by living in such large numbers and in such constant contact, as individuals and as larger groupings. Other possible interpretations are far less benign, and would tend to align with the wet dreams of billionaires imo.

@kennethhymes9734 5 месяцев назад

Obvious counter argument to initial A bomb example - in no way was it a fluke that the US leadership decided that developing an atomic bomb and dropping it on Japan was a good idea. A series of deliberate choices based on long-held and deeply racist ideas.

@kennethhymes9734 5 месяцев назад

And yes, I get that Klaas is saying it changed who died... but we know now that those ciVILians didn't have to in order to end the war, they wanted to test the bomb. So all the arguments about necessity are beside the point, they were GOing to do it. No fluke.

@meb3369 5 месяцев назад

Then again, if FDR hadn't died in office, the bomb very likely wouldn't have been dropped!! Truman, who was FDR's VP, made the call against the counsel of FDR's advisers