Football betting | How to use eXpected Goals (xG) when betting or trading football matches

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Thanks for your comments last week on the 'Jeff Stelling' xG (Expected goals) video which you can view here: -
• Football statistics - ...
Given the interest, I thought I would expand it a little to discuss it's positive and negative points and how you would likely use it if you were trading a football match on Betfair.
Xg is a great little tool and can be really helpful in letting you know how a football match is unfolding. The concept has been around for a long time in football statistic circles but has grown in popularity in recent years thanks to more common use in main stream media.

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11 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 20

@51aberkshire 6 лет назад

Hi Pete, can you SHOW us as well as telling us, please? Would also like your views on football trading on match outcome hedged with correct score or

@christianschou8857 4 года назад

Grey video once again Peter . Can u please recommend any good XG in play predictors????

@jazzylaffy 6 лет назад

Hi Peter. Firstly can I say how much I am learning from all your multifarious videos. Thanks so much for them. Secondly, a question about the validity of the xG measure. I have an app called Infogol that gives xgdata and maps at half and full time. Two matches from this evening from full-time. Sociedad v Barcelona, xG 0.99 v 1.57, actual goals 2 v 4. Even more interesting Liverpool v Man City xG 0.8 v 0.95, actual goals 4-3. I realise these are only two matches from this evening, but particularly with the latter Liverpool game how valid is xG as a predictive measure? Apologies if I am missing something?

@betangeltv 6 лет назад

The 4-3 match was interesting as xG was way out on that one, but what that really tells you is that the finishing last night was first class. Over time it's a good measure but football can be pretty variable so all it was telling you last night was that it was a close match. Closer than the score suggested. In my experience xG understates possible goals on an individual match basis.

@jazzylaffy 6 лет назад

Thanks for the quick response. So if I understand your approach correctly you are using xG pre-match as just part of your gradual sense of the match and it is this overall sense that dictates your original strategy for that event. If you are then watching while trading you use in-play xG to "sense-check" what you are seeing and potentially shape new approaches? So xG is not "the Holy Grail" just an interesting additional facet to the evidence base that shapes your approach which has the advantage of synthesising complex data in a relatively assimilable form?

@jazzylaffy 6 лет назад

This leads to a few follow-on questions. (a) Where can you get in-play xG data? (b) Assuming in-play updated xG data is relatively expensive, is there still value in using the free xG data from something like the InfoGol iPhone app or the Understat.com site pre-match (for instance that Team A is generally a good defensive team so use that to shape goal expectations etc.) (c) Given that "past performance is no guarantee of the future" do the half-time xG summaries produced by Infogol have any reasonable predictive affect for the second half?

@chrisarmstrong2115 6 лет назад

Are there any sites that give the in-play xG that you would recommend?

@quaresma8800 6 лет назад

In this video Peter shows stats from understat.com,all websites i`ve seen show only post match statistics on xG.

@marcusfranconium3392 2 года назад

Hi , what i noticed over the years long distance shots or goals are much less common than they here 15 to 20 years ago . The type of play changed as most goals are now preferable scored in or near the penalty box . And even shots that are made from a larger distance are mostly wide .or of target. We used to see much more on target long distance shots before 2005 than we see now . Most players cant even shoot on target in the box any more ,

@betangeltv 2 года назад

There does seem to have been a move to setting up a better quality shot now, rather than shooting from a longer distance. I'm pretty sure a long-distance shot could easily force an error and it's more entertaining.

@marcusfranconium3392 2 года назад

@@betangeltv True ,also exiting . and less frustrating to watch , who doesnt remember the Branco cannon balls or Koemans thunderstrikes. I remember that up to a few years ago they used to do some long range testing of a keeper early in game to see what form and how confident the keeper was . And could make the keeper a bit nervous or insecure.

@HeadOfHorror 3 года назад

Hello Does betangel have an xg stats on the app

@TheSHAWOFIT 6 лет назад

A bit too much talk on this. Good to see a screen at times otherwise its like death by powerpoint sorry mate !

@chunkymonkey55555 6 лет назад

ahhh the critic within..

@stothAjs 6 лет назад

like getting blood from a stone but where does a leyman get the data, even if it is just a basic xG model and not a million variables like opta?

@betangeltv 6 лет назад

A lot of fantasy football sites now include this data for free. It's a goldmine!

@betangeltv 6 лет назад

infogol app on iPhone is great for live data

@stothAjs 6 лет назад

thanks i appreciate the reply and information...others online will not show their sources. I am not so interested in fantasy or betting but scouting from lower leagues and europe/world. Is that just too far away from being availbale or do you need to pay for that info? thanks

@betangeltv 6 лет назад

That is no easily available so you will have to go direct for that sort of information