How to predict goals in a football match 

thoroughly enjoy all of your videos Peter ...thank you and look forward to the next instalment

Thank you Peter, very helpful. Looking forward to next video.

Excellent Peter! I use a mathematical model to calculate CS for specific games based on most recent data, and use this to see if their is value in any of the CS from my model and those being offered. Its in its infancy but has thrown up a couple of excellent value CS's, but a long term trial of the model is the goal. Teams need to settle so to speak this season and then i believe the data may be more reliable. Look forward to the follow ups.

Really enjoy these videos ... the more i watch the more I realise I don't know ....

i totally agree i also get the average goals scored and conceded by the teams in that year and against that opponent to give a little more accuracy on their currently form

Hi Peter mate. I gotta tell you av just stumbled across your channel, researching for my son really. He's just signed up to Betfair and he had a gouple of win bets win and a couple of lay bets he copped on. As I'm sure you can guess!!! Yes he immediately thinks he's KING of the PUNTERS, this is bloody easy Dad I'm gonna be a millionaire, you know the way us punters are (us meaning to seperate you from the us) compared to a true Professional gambler. So I immediately told him to '' Pull his Horns'', and tried to explain to him that it looks easy but you can catch plenty of colds. At this point I should explain to you, I've been a punter and gambler all my life and have bought probably every system known to man or variations of them. Also used many tipping lines too and most tipsters couldn't tip a waiter and as another of your videos explains (this is the 3rd video of yours I've watched) there are many scams afoot. I can say though, I've considered a passion to find a way to beat the bookie, hence over the years I'd collate stats from the whole spectrum and I have to tell you that my belief, where (if ever they could possibly have) the bookies achilles heel lies is with football matches. Is why I love this video you are doing, cos I swear, I used to get the longlist saturday footy coupon every week. I did the stats for averages of each match score, I amassed maybe 3 seasons or so straight of results, I'm accepting nowhere near as your from 1878 or whichever year you stated. Anyway, by the by, although what is truely relevant is that the stats are a remarkable accurrate siimilar/identical average season upon season decade upon decade, The first stat, where the bookie scrambles on having right, I say scramble cos they adopted it basically from THE POOLS which is the 1-1 draw averaged the best of an average of just about or over 7 a week and 8 score draws was the magic pools jackpot and hence the POOlS Firms gaining their edge of just under one score draw. My list in order ish of scores went 1-1 then home wins 1-0, then 2-1 then 2-0 and then 0-0 I believe. Obviously the away wins an identikit-ish of previously mentioned home wins. 3-3 if i recall would average between 2 and 3 i think and 3-2 0r 2-3 were an equal average. I used to love the edge we had the punter beginning with that lucky 15 bet that gave you triple odds for one winner. When your doing scores back then the shortist price would be the 1-1 at normally 11/2 and 1-0 could be as skinny as 6/1 and 2-0 could go low as 13/2 but not predictably often. Cut long story short, if Cheltenham is the ''Punters Graveyard''. Well the footy score odds combined with you lucky 15 triple odds one winner was the ''Punters' Paradise''. Right, sorry about all that flim flam but I guess my ego got better of me there. So what it is you seem, a real genuine honest man and I told my son before he runs, learn to walk. I went on to tell him, if you master the art, cos is an art, the art of not being a gambler and being disciplined then you can be a success at edging and arbing . One problem is son, I told him. we (again Peter we as in punters and not yourself) all think we can do it, be disciplined, but we can't, av to take the gambers stance at some stage, cos we're gamblers. He says he gets it. I told him he has to watch your videos, study one of your methods to the point of A plus as if it was an exam grade. Then, once he knows it like the alphabet backwards, to then go online and play and to not deviate in any which way, but to ply it religously as is explained, i went on to ad lib IT AINT BROKE SO DON'T NEED FIXING. I've also told him, that this fella (your good self) talks to you and not AT or DOWN to you, which, in my view makes him a very good teacher and you (my son) is to look at you (your good self) as HIS MENTOR. In ending this script of 'War and Peace' to you Peter the angel. I'd to afford you that compliment, as is another art I guess you have mastered the art of talking/teaching without being condescending and I believe (I consider myself a good judge of character) you're genuine and really would like to help people improve their gambling techniques. Lets face it though Peter most gamblers cant spell technique let alone apply it lol. Please if you wish to reply my email address is princebolanoasis@gmail.com thanks mate for taking time out to read this

Well explained and very helpful for a newbie like me

Thanks for great value,Peter!

Thanks so much! Looking forward to the next chapters :)

Fantastic as always Peter. There was a comment further down, where someone asked you to provide so type of trading service I would be a member straightway!!

Very intresting, more of these please.

Thank you for this :) interested to learn more.

Given me some ideas for trading goals both correct score and over/under's markets Cheers Peter

Thank you peter, Great video. time for me to do some homework on this.

Great video thank you

very informative video. what I would like to see videos on are goal distribution over time and also the optimal times to cash out when a match is going against you

Great video Peter. With the second graph I'm not clear how you are calculating your percentages for each field. Is it, for example for 2-1, an average of the likelyhood of 2 goals scored by the home side and the likelyhood of 1 goal scored by the away side? If you're doing more of these, a video on forecasting time of goals, especially time of the first goal, would be great. Thanks for this!

great video,,thanks peter

Again very informative video 👍

great info,thanks

Brilliant video...

Great video as always Peter. Can I ask what tool(s) you use to do your comparisons and calculations on your database?

Thanks Peter - really interesting and "de mything" all the nonsense and exaggeration about score predictions. Very useful analysis, even way back a hundred years +!! It would be useful to see what you take from this into action - i.e. do you tend to set a position on the under's pre start or wait and determine how the match is going? What about automation in BA for football, what do you recommend? Cheers

Do you use your analysis to trade correct score markets or number of goals (like under/over 2.5)?

Many thanks.

If you were to collate goal information from premier league teams would you need 100 games of stats per team to get a decent average or could you do it with less? Great video BTW

Very interesting, I am interested in trying to build a database stats model around Premier League games that finish Exactly 2 or 3 Goals. The bookmakers offer 2.0 on this occurring but if I can work out the goal expectancy/ frequency. If you like to contribute your thoughts great, trying to implement this as a betting strategy lets hope it may take off!!!

I'm currently trying out the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 CS markets and laying U3.5 goals but was never sure what games to try on?

You can not totally rely on the complete past history between two teams as you also have to take into consideration personnel changes. Recent history in the last 2 years is relevant and it is also worth looking at teams current form against similar teams . If you are looking at Man U V Man City it is worth looking to see who they have played recently and if they have both played the same team. Say if both have played a team in the top 5 and then the bottom half and look at the scores to gauge their current form. Another factor that was not mentioned is injured players. Are the key players in the starting line up and are they in form scoring goals. That fascinated me concerning the most common score being 1-1. I remember doing the pools and you had to get the score draws. Out of 60-70 games on the coupon it was still difficult to get the draws otherwise they wouldn't do the pools if it was easy to predict the draws . I currently have a betting strategy laying the draws under certain market conditions and out of 390 games 95 were draws and 44 ere 1-1. Next highest is 32 0-0. Currently considering revising strategy and laying the draw backing 1-1. Interesting stuff though.... Two draws this afternoon 4/12/18 what was the score ? 1-1.

Peter, have you considered setting up a tipping service for betfair exchange only? Maybe a combination of back/lay trading mixed with regular backing. The issue of bookmakers restricting & closing accounts, usually on little more than a few wins in a row, seems to be getting more & more common.

more of these please

Could you please do a video on in-play stats?

you are verry clever , this is so usful !

If you add up the values in column 1 it comes to 32.24 not 33.83??

interesting Peter, but would you not say that 100 years ago there used to be many more goals per game (6-2, 5-4 etc) and this would have given you a different chart thanif you'd only plotted games from say 1970 onwards, for example?

Hello, I am also interested as to where you got the data over the years from...? Thanks

can you share the code of prediction

@BetAngel do you consider league average, and home /defensive strength when calculating expected goals.

Yeah its amazing how few goals there are compared with how many there seems to be, the BTS stats are very interesting, always around 50/50 although you would think it would be much more weighted to both teams scoring.

Hello Peter. Thanks for the vid. Have you got any data on 2UP?

Thank you, Peter, very informative again, like your videos, never thought about the 1-1 scoreline :-)

Peter can you guide me where i can find the weekly ratings on your blog ?

Great video Peter. Reassuring to know I am doing very similar things to you in my research.In your dataset of games from 1888, I wondered if you noticed a difference in goals when 3 points for a win was introduced? I would have thought that would provide an increased incentive to score.

Hi Peter Is that data you collected, across all leagues, so all games that were ever played in England?

Can you do videos every weekend of bets you would do for the weekend

When you say "in football" are you collecting data from every single match world-wide including friendlies or is the data used in the graph for a certain league?

i think nobody is as good in euro football as domestic ... it is a mess ! :) great interesting graphs btw Thanks, hope keep them coming

I love your channel peter, I am new at trading and still can't get my head around some aspects of trading but I have just made a few good trades, the best return being in the super bowl at half time I layed the the eagles who had taken a shock lead in the game and then cashed out as soon as the patriots scored in the second half, not a huge profit but it was just more a practice but it worked.

Also, when you are trading on football, do you watch each game that you trade on? I would find it difficult to trade on games I'm not watching - I like to get a feel for the tempo and mentality of the teams.

Fascinating as always. I'd be interested to know if you've ever done any analysis on how accurate Betfair's exchange SP odds are of an event actually occurring. In short, just how Wise is the Betfair Crowd?

Only 3 years late but hey Peter! Do you ever take weather conditions into account when predicting the total number of goals in a match? I seem to recall a lot of dreary drab games on Monday nights in deep mid-winter in the swirling rain and howling wind, cold and miserable. I wonder if under 2.5 goals would be profitable long term under those conditions?

Nice explanation Peter. I usually do 1.5 match goals on 20 games. It pays more than 100/1. Only won it about once a year lol. Peter do you know a quick way to find 20 games that will end more than 2 goals

That’s an awful lot of historical data, way back to 1899. The one thing that sticks out from all your videos etc is your dedication and your meticulous approach. I think it’s forgotten sometimes and people just want a do I back or lay at whatever point answer. My question is, A - did you enjoy that half of football (you didn’t actually say) And B - how did you go about collecting and plotting such vast amounts of data? It’s this that seems one of the biggest mysteries to me. Another great video though 👍

Really interesting stuff Peter. Out of interest, based on historical results, are confident enough in your model, that if nothing else existed (Betangel, horse trading etc), you could make a full time living solely from Football betting / trading?

Fascinating video - very good quality content, thank you very much. Looking forward to the follow-up with baited breath. Do you also have data for goal times? I.e. would you be able to say that, when the result in a match is 1-1, the first goal will on average be scored during minutes 40 to 50 (for e.g.)?

Relaxing to just listen to you talking.

Is it possible team gets booked?

Hi Peter, where have you got your data dating back to 1889 from?

Given how football has evolved over the years, would historical data from way back be useful? - you explain this in another vid haha. I still thinks it's apples and pears a bit though 😁

At 8:14... unless you're talking about Crystal Palace and Zaha not playing.

Any chance of a video about how to predict draws?

Haven't bookmakers essentially done all this analysis for you as reflected in the odds they offer? Naturally they'd probably be somewhat skewed, but I imagine they should still give some relative indication e.g. if the odds of 2-1 was say 4.0 and the odds of 3-0 was 9.0 then you know that 2-1 should be much more likely!?

am from Nigeria. please I want to know more on how to win game

Good video but don't the bookies have this covered? If 0-0 is 7-8% occurence then you need odds of better than 12/1 to get any value in the market. You will see this but only where a strong side is playing a weaker one. Likewise 1-1 is a common score (11-12%) then typically this is offered at 7/1 to 10/1 depending on the teams so really no value in this bet and the under 2.5s odds are poor as well.

studying your chart it seems more likely that 6 or more goals in a game is more likely than a 0-0 result, surprising.

@15:01 lol You'll know all about that now after the Leicester 0-9.... Sorry.... Everyone has to go through this at some point.

10x a lot

Hey Peter this comment isn't about trading, I have seen pretty much all of your videos and this one you look pretty rough lol😜. Take a day off and play some golf you deserve it.

Premiership is chalking goals off for fun.

Great video with a lot of useful tips however i cant understand why you are giving away your hard earned secrets and diluting the edge you have!

In the last 5 years of premiership, the percentage of 1-1 is down to around 9.95% i think :) Please dont tell me my spreadsheet i wrong, i might cry lol

1888!! Is it even relevant?

3:40 matches are played by players on the pitch, if you compare statistical data from years earlier , the only info that the players on the pitch know is that the manager told them they beat this very team 7 times on this field last 10 years. thats all the statistical( historical) you have going into this match, and i can assure you they wont think of that when they touch the ball and shoot

Pete you are a star ( not the porn movie one 😆

Spelling Peter! Forecast.

Can you make a living of betting?

no offence but I feel like I just wasted 19 minutes of my life

1888!! Is it even relevant?