Unbelievably simple explanation of such complex notions of modeling and steering. Literally the best on every storm, every season. Thank you for sharing your wisdom!
Thank you Dr. Levi and prayers to all that will be impacted by the dreaded "I" storm (Ian). I'm in SWFL near Sarasota so I'm watching this quite closely. Really appreciate your insights .
I agree! Watching the projected potential paths it reminds me too much of Irma - And that was a nasty storm --- even when it hit my area and had weakened quiet a bit, it left such a terrible path of destruction and took so long to recover from. Hopefully people in the possible path spend this weekend getting themselves prepared -- and always --- Please folks -- Make sure you prep and plan for pets and help your elderly neighbors / family / friends.
Brilliant analysis as we have come to expect Doc. C....I have no degree in meteorology but from watching your presentations of tropical storm forecast for almost 4 years now I feel I have more comprehension than 90% of those who got that university degree. Thank you Levi, you are the best sir !
Thank you, Sir. From Tampa/StP and have been sending my neighbors your link. You and Mark have been my goto for several years now. Truly appreciate your professional assessments.
Same here - St.Pete. My sister has been following tropical tidbits many years, just turned me on in the last few. Best source to educate yourself and sidestep all the mania on TV. The Windy app is helpful too. Be safe!
I liked that you emphasized the NHC's cone of uncertainty is where the eye will track. Therefore given the size of the hurricane, a much bigger area is at threat. I've not heard someone explain it that way. Thank you!
Thank you Levi. As always you explain such complex weather systems in a way we lay people can understand. Living in Tampa bay Iam hoping that trough stays deep and long enough to pull it out quickly and perhaps even missing most of Florida. The gfs solution is looking like a worst case scenario in terms of flooding and overall damage in my area or those north of me.
I’ve been working at CARCAH this week and, as always, your website has been SO HELPFUL helping me (Davis) keep an eye on all our missions between shifts. Thanks for doing what you do! Please let us know if there’s ever anything we can do to help 😊😊
Your forecast and analysis is the ONLY one I rely on and have done for the last few years and it has always been consise, accurate and understandable. You are a master in your profession! Needed this today as I was fretting about the path, living in Central Florida, but realized there can be so many scenarios with this hurricane. By the way Levi will the dry air around Florida impact this Hurricane? Also I heard there will be shear across the Gulf next week, can you talk about these two features please in the next update?
Agree that it’s still so uncertain. I remember cat 5 Michael that was supposed to take a direct hit to south Fl and then within 48 hrs, then it shifted to the west and hit around the panhandle.
I'm right in the middle.of all that. Wowzers. Nova Scotia, cape breton island, Glace Bay. Power outages already being reported On island, and its 10:30pm rn. Rained allday. Hut that was another system that it merged with.
Been watching this channel for a while now, but I haven’t really interacted yet. Thank you for your continued excellent analyses of these events, they are super interesting to watch and provide important insight.
Thanks Levi! As always a very comprehensive explanation and a good reminder to always have your hurricane kits ready to rock and roll this time of year.
thanks for the concise update ...always fascinating to see your views Dr Cowan ...I will stick by Euro ...have feeling our areas Florida will take a hit. be safe and prepare everyone.
Thank you Again for what you do! Lord this SUCKS for SW FL in general..... "Have a plan" works for a lot of folks but for some of us that can't afford to go by 20+ gallons of gas and whatever water and supplies to deal with this at this time $$$$,,,,, This Sucks! OH BTW, the insane panic set in today REALLY early and we have SOLD OUT signs on gas/water/food stuffs already (as of early this afternoon) so yeah there is that. I have been dealing with this for Years and never have seen these conditions this early, NEVER... Not directed at Levi of curse but this uncertainty gets really old... Thanks FJB for making my finances so bleak that I can't really prepare for this crap. Not to mention I'm sure "they" are all dancing a jig for screwing FL in the "response".... Again NOT directed at Levi by any means, it just that we got to this point in the "season" and now this.... Appreciate the detailed updates, but..........
FYI, as of 10:15 (9/23/2022) one of the gas stations near my house only had premium fuel left. Yesterday, the local Target was already low on water and I heard it was out of water today. Location South West Broward County, Florida.
So... Levi and his site deserve more love than I can give but I will send this guy some cash today. Weather nerds are a small party with a limited audience. So much knowledge shared here. My bet is the ridge has an amplitude bias on models, (it will actually be less) and a more western track is favored. I'll go landfall cat 4 Pensacola.
Ugh... European model has it eerily similar to Charlie. Hoping that's not the case, still fresh in my mind as I still live in PG. THX Dr. Levi! As always, excellent video!
And now forcasting it going up Apalachee bay. But as Dr. Cowan states, could be variables this far out. NWS has changed their tune to a more northward track.
Super hot upon the entire Central USA and Canada record highs in point of fact. No one long oil prices going into this Weather Weapon attack this weekend! Or very few anyways..
We have been on borrowed time here in Florida no matter where this system goes we should all be grateful for the state that we live in reach out to your neighbors because somebody will be impacted a lot of somebody’s. We are Florida we are fighters. This is a time for us to unite. This is the time mother nature is telling us that she’s not happy with us. This has nothing to do with politics or polls. This is mother nature making herself know. so much uncertainty is still with this storm, but just remember someone a lot of someone’s will be impacted be prepared we have been on borrowed time.
the name situation is insane. the male and female is switched! this time. usually its the other way around... note if Ian keeps shifting west ill freak.. on another note. with the Euro the most east of all the models it be fun to see if the Euro is actually king.... im in pensacola i have not seen a hurricane yet as i missed sally
I believe each of the six name lists they cycle through have switched M/F names every year. So essentially there are 3 lists that start with a male A name and 3 that start with a female A name.
@@rebeccadey ya im well aware of the alternating. i just noticed. usually a male name goes to a weak shortlived storm while the females go for the big long lived very impactful ones. so the tables turned for Ian and Hemine
I'm 61 yo lived in FL my whole life. I can remember hurricanes hitting land and dying out. I can remember highs and lows steered them. I can remember the Nina's changing their strength. I can remember you had watches, warnings were given 3 days prior. Today these storms are predicted prior to forming, they hit land and keep their strength (no water needed😳) prediction of hit is given 5 to 7 days out, and now it's troughs that steer them! This is so messed up, how about between seeding, HAARP, CERN, and lasers has fucked up our weather patterns! To fix the problem get rid of the ELITES!
@@GlennBSmith-dv4vw this hurricane is not coming to new Orleans or getting as for west as new Orleans.new Orleans is not even in cone.we are getting a cool front in new Orleans.this hurricane is going to Florida , Florida , florida.please don't panic no storm is going anywhere in Louisiana.