The collapse of Kim’s regime, if they go to war with the south than all of their starving soldiers will desert. The influx of technology and food will baffle them and their army will fall apart.
Btw, about your predictions about India, UCC and other stuff are going to be passed in his third term 2024-2029 and not 2036. BJP may not even come to power in 2034, without Modi. Obviously when compared to other non-Indian observers yours is a bit okay... But Indian Politics that far into the future is really unpredictable. Next five years is. The same party which is winning supermajorities today and 10 years ago won only 2 seats 40 years ago. Modi is not going to be in power until he dies
@@seto_kaiba_Bruh. Where do you live? Social media is not at all declining, its presence in our lives is unfortunately just being normalised. The platforms will certainly be changed in the future due to possible issues such as online propaganda, bots, etc; but social media is too ingrained within our lives to just decline.
@@edblue2330 Florida has a way too strong hardline anti-socialist Zeitgeist to vote for someone like AOC. That's why Republicans usually seem to have an advantage, they always manage to paint Democrats as radical socialists and Floridians are so stupid that they actually believe that.
Today definitely not but a lot can change in 16 years, especially with growing Hispanic population and younger Cubans moving beyond their grandparents’ conservatism. Compare the 2020 map to the 2004 map and there are major differences
@@wildviper Most Hispanic gen Z (at least the Mexicans) hate her because like it or not she is an idiot and is out of touch with them, why do you think so many Hispanics are turning to Trump?
@@wildviperThe younger cubans are more likely to vote along the lines of their parents if DeSantis/his successors don't do a terrible job. They don't have the kind of massive problems that electing one of their own would help to solve, like the black vote with Obama, besides the fact that AOC comes from NYC, and thus her background isn't very akin to that of the cuban descendants in Florida
Honestly my issue with alt history channels isn't that they get their "predictions" wrong but rather the entire premise of attempting to predict history at such a large scale is absurd. When we talk about history we tend to boil it down to key events and historical figures which whilst not an incorrect perspective, can create narratives which can make history feel like a chain of cause and effect rather than the lived experiences of people acting irrationally to unpredictable circumstances. The exercise of predicting the future just feels absurd when you consider we're all active participants in creating that history as we attempt to predict it. This is why Whatifalthist imagines that the right is one the rise, or that the "west is falling". These are just projections of his current values onto the future. This is what makes it impossible to be partial in any way for our predictions to really be useful. I don't think there's anything wrong with noting trends and making predictions, but I feel like there's much more value in history when it's used to contextualize our present circumstances without seeing it as determinstic because our history can only really tell us what happened not why it happened.
I agree wholeheartedly with what you’re saying, are you familiar with historical materialism? It’s a Marxist form of historical analysis but it covers the majority of the bases you have gripes with in “great man”-esque historical alliteration a lot of history RU-vid falls under.
I think you are massively underestimating the impact a second Trump presidency would have on future American politics. It basically tells every future president that coherent policy is only optional, what’s more important is good lip service and command of rhetoric. Expect only useful idiots from both sides to be our choice for president for decades to come…a catastrophe which I personally think ultimately brings us to ruin.
Of all the stuff you've presented, its Turkmenistan falling in the way you described that seems implausible. Its basically a Central Asian North Korea thats corrupted Islam so much that it has its own version of it at this point. It'll still probably collapse eventually, but it'd probably be because of internal instability rather than following a trend of local revolutions. All in all great video btw!
This was very disappointing This video is basically the same things that happen today, but longer It's like if the early 2020s went on forever It also predicts technology to largely stagnate and grow at a much slower pace than in thr previous 25 years This reads as "what if the first half of the 21st century was 2023-2024, but longer" This 2050 world looks basically the same as our own? Sorry, this is not going to age well
Things always happen, the problem is that autistic people on the internet believe that for "something to happen" there has to be a third world war or a nuclear apocalypse
I really love this type of video! I don't take it like "this will happen", but more just as a fun thought exercise! I am glad you are making this video (and it's only part one!!).
This was a very interesting video! One thing I think you missed is the rise of Eastern European nations and their economies eventually becoming just as strong as those of Western Europe. Great vid man subscribed
Poland and maybe Czechia are the only eastern European countries that have that kind of future, rest are demographic holes that will continue sinking with investors not seeing the point of investing in states that are getting emptier by the year. This population drain would also pretty much keep current day style populists in power Ukraine with it's obliterated infrastructure and borderline erased young population should the war drag into 2026 would also most likely be just a Nato buffer zone with limited social investment from the outside, combine that with the predicted rise of nationalism expect cheap Ukrainian grain be embargoed out the wazoo leaving them with their only option of exporting to the middle east via sea should they keep a coastline after the war.
It's clear that you have a lot of knowledge. Your predictions out to 2030 aren't half bad. For the rest out till 2050 though... This was a lot of fun but nothing more than that haha
Solving population decline is simpler than people think if you ask me. In China, the cost of housing in Shanghai is 45x the average income of a Shanghai resident. That's unsustainable, and I reckon it'll change within our lifetime, if it hasn't already with China's real estate collapse.
Nigeria is not gonna split up, last succession in Nigeria had support from some political/military elites, that’s why it was possible, there is no Nigerian elite now or in the future that has will/incentive to split from Nigeria
My main issue is Space Exploration In a few days starship 4 is launching, they are aiming for 2029 to be the year they land on Mars. NASA also plans for starship to help with Lunar Landings in the late 20s. both USA and China are planning for moon bases, there wouldn't just be a void of no moon lunar landing after the intial americns Landings again. Both Russia and China are now in open talks anoit making a joint Space station, and Lunar Base. India and Europe are developing their own manned rocksts aswel.
42:50 oml, why is your tonal control better than mine. You said Hu Chunhua so well that I'm jealous. 😂 Amazing work as always, though. It's obvious how much research and time went into this and it really shows. I love your analysis and how it's rooted in the data and while change happens, it's plausible and nothing too crazy like Canada seeking Empire or something. Any thoughts about Taiwan? Fewer of us identify as Chinese, about 25% only or in-parrt and 85% wish to seek formal independence or maintain the status quo. Traditionally the Super Conductor industry was held as a guarantee against an invasion from the mainland, but there appears to be some sort of motion to transfer at least part of that to America. What are the chances I'll read about my family getting turned into paste by 2049? 😅
Thanks! I talk about Taiwan more in part 2 but I don't think China will do anything too crazy in the next 25 years. Probably more of the usual, so harassment and intimidation. I see Taiwan doing pretty well economically too even if there is more competition in tech
50:30 You forgot to mention the freezing and shinking of Europe because of the Melting that raises the water level and lowers the salt concentration in the atlantic that would weaken the gulf stream effect.
Fingers crossed people reconsider their stance on Trump when they consider that Trump's presidency was during a good time for the US economy, while Biden's has consisted of the economic crisis inherited from Trump, who kinda just... didn't manage it, and the recovery from it. I think the question should be less, "How did the economy do under Trump and Biden," and more, "How did the economy do during COVID under Trump and Biden?" Edit: Also, about that Democrat outrage at Trump's victory, I doubt you're the only one that's gonna see that coming. Voters in the Electoral College I think might also anticipate this, potentially scaring them into voting Biden even if they support Trump. Edit 2: I also doubt China would double their nuclear weapons stockpile, because there is a very particular reason why it's at the number it's at, and it's not for lack of ability to build more. According to Chinese policy makers, their current nuke count is the perfect one, because it's just enough to give them some bargaining power against other nuclear powers like Russia or the US, but not so much that they're an international pariah IIRC; I don't actually believe that works in practice, but that is the Chinese way.
For your first point, I doubt it. Often the most vocal supporters are the same ones who haven't looked as deeply into the matter besides what they are told on the news. In their mind, they already know enough and now focus on supporting their preferred candidate. The economy has always been a flowing current, much like a river, that has been effected constantly and outside the control of a sitting president. Often times, from one Presidency to the next, an economy can get better or worse, and a President may or may not be able to effect it whilst in office for a major change. People were argue the economy was better under Trump then Biden, overlooking the fact that the economy is an always moving current that gets affected often times during one Presidency leading into the next one.
47:57: ok I'll actually put money on that not happening, the line, at least in it's full form, will never be built. It's just unless and impractical, it would never generate enough revenue to survive on it's own.
Democratic forces probably win but eventually war would begin again in a different shape perhaps between ethnic groups. Myanmar has had a pretty cursed past century
I think this is an amazing and well done video. I think that your predictions will come true but it will be slightly diffrent then what you are saying. Like ether the timeline will follow your predictions but things are going to be be much worst than what you are saying. Or things will follow your predictions but things will turn out better.
These are good predictions but he's way too bullish on the US and the liberal order, and I find the notion of a second space race unlikely in a world that's facing constant economic downturns. I feel like he basically took the current trends and extrapolated them out without accounting for the potential of total collapse in any western country. What about the massive US deficit or the shifting demographics in europe? Wouldn't this lead to far right groups in Europe similar to the WLA you mentioned in the US?
I don't think any first world country will collapse though. US deficit won't be an issue as long as the US dollar is the world reserve currency and shifting demographics in Europe are just the difference between 2% Muslim and 4% Muslim by 2050. Yep there are far-right groups in Europe but I focused on the political parties that get elected
It seems like you are espousing a timeline which follows broadly the terms of global ecoomic liberalism and the current political instability charts. Yet, there seems to be a complete disregard of fractionalism inside Western countries along the lines of cultural and communal differences. Mostly Europe which has been rife grounds for political upheaval in time of growing classes discrepancies. The managerial classes of Europe will have their "Let them eat cake" moment, as their ideological commitment to unpopular ideas is stubbornly maintained despite the distaste of the majority. As well as growing levels of criminality and radicalization being twice as prominent among the second generation immigrants, according to several cross-national studies. This introduction of large amount of foreign elements with stronger affiliation to parent identities then that of the host is surely gonna bring more separatism and polarization in the region. There is also the consequences of massive demilitarization during the 80s, and increasingly ideological leadership which won't be able to deal with civil unrest or war (It took only the death of an algerian national to put Paris to flame in 2022). There is no way Europe survives the next two decades with it's current economic impetus and narrowing cultural consensus.
Idk there are some pretty glaring issues with some stuff in the video tbh. For instance you said Congress barely passed Ukraine aid, which isn’t true at all. There was wide bipartisan support for it - almost half of the republicans in the house of representatives voted for aid and literally every democrat did. It was more about Trump not wanting to hand Biden a win than congress being deeply divided over the issue. Several European countries have also pledged long term support for Ukraine - America isn’t the only country backing Ukraine. Also Ukraine failing one offensive campaign doesn’t mean their frontline is about to collapse. Russia has lost several offensive campaigns and they’re clearly not going to collapse tomorrow exactly. I’m also wondering what polling you used for the ‘24 election since I’ve seen multiple polls indicate Biden winning several swing states you said he will lose, and the premise that since polling has previously underestimated Trump it will do so again isn’t logical. That isn’t to say trump definitely will not win, I quite frankly don’t know, but I think Biden is slightly more likely. I’m also not sure Trump would address illegal immigration. He didn’t do much on that front in his first term, and it is one of the few things republicans have as a policy they are leading over the democrats on when it comes to popular support. You also need to take into account that both the house and senate are likely to become democratic. Biden is unpopular, but the Democratic Party isn’t. Democrats have significantly more support than Republicans, at least from what I could see. Unpopular things such as cracking down on abortion and instituting soft forms of press censorship in states like Florida and Texas has had a really negative effect, and honestly really calls the “party of small government” rhetoric into question. It would also be really bad economically to deport 3 million people when America already has a labour shortage so that’s another reason why I doubt Trump would crack down on illegal immigration or even legal immigration. It just doesn’t make economic sense in america. I also highly doubt a war with Mexico would happen or a war in Mexico against the cartels with American involvement. The far right in Europe isn’t a unified movement. While there are parties like AfD who are eurosceptical, other right wing parties are less so and want a European wide migration control scheme. Moderate governments have also been cracking down on immigration and in some countries the right wing populist wave is over. Notably Denmark and Poland have gone from having major support for a right wing populist party and having a ruling right wing populist party respectively to electing more moderate governments. Czechia has also elected a liberal government. I think it’s more likely that we’ll see a decoupling of pro immigration from centre left European parties - something you can see in my country sweden, where even the social democrats are open about our immigration policies having been a huge mistake. Anyway I guess there isn’t any point in nitpicking I get this was mostly a thing you did for fun, and I really like your content in general!
I like your narration, but you should have thought out of more boxes. I rather imagine the demand for oil to fall brutally as nuclear energy comes to be really cheap. GMO bamboo produces a structural material fare more sturdy than steel especially under violent conditions : this proves to be the ideal carbon sequestration method. During Trump's regime, the US experiences a second civil war, though that's not all his fault : it starts with a war of Mexican cartels that forces each state to go fascist far right or Mao-like far-left just in an attempt to destroy the cartels to survive : instead of Democratic and Republicans there are now Progressives (authoritarian marxists fantasying about China, though in a more cowboy-friendly American way), Symbiotists (woke multicultural ecologists), Whigs (industrialists wanting to restore an affluent society) and Conservatives (who want to make the US like in 1800). At the end of the civil war the Union is restored, it extends on the whole continent including most of Canada and Mexico, but each state allows only two of those parties (Louisiana has only Conservatives and Symbiotists, California only Symbiotists and Communists, Texas only Whigs and Conservatives, Illinois only and the Union loses much power since each state is now responsible for its army and federal forces intervene only where articles of the constitution are attacked.
Although I personally don’t see Trump winning (I’m not some extreme Biden stan). I still think that this is a good video. Not just Trump, I do believe that quite a few things in this video will age poorly. But I highly doubt that What Why How is gonna believe that every single thing in the video is gonna happen. This was a very entertaining video overall. And the nuclear warlords in the video were the most interesting in my opinion. Also, he gives Putin’s doctors way too much credit. I understand the rumors of Putin’s health are over hyped, I still don’t really see Putin living up to the 2030’s. I understand that evil people tend to live longer, however Putin is clearly not healthy. But still, this is What Why How’s video, not mine.
I would like an explanation on why you don’t think China will collapse. It’s a common belief and I would like to know why you don’t expect it to happen
@@deathsummerbait2 The birth rate, you can solve with immigrants,with automatization, special programs but China's economy will not collapse due to that reason. Because if China transition to an Service economy then they'll grow even if there's a lot of older people
im pretty sure ecoterrorism is not committing terrorism for the cause of environmentalism, but instead using terrorism on nature(like starting a forest fire or putting iron in protected lakes to cause an algae bloom) for a cause. so it means any organisation with nefarious intent could use it not just environmentalists
The find it really intriguing, the idea that political tensions get so high in the USA that the only thing that both parties can agree on is limiting the power of the executive branch out of immense fear that the other side will gain power
@@wildviper I liked the video overall, the world feels kind of stagnant in your summation but that makes it feel pretty realistic. Do me a solid and expand complete American domination of the globe in part 2.
Not bad, but I think it’s foolish to extrapolate current political parties/ideologies/figures onto a world 10, 20, or 30 years in the future. Besides Beshear, Crenshaw, and AOC it’d be a fool errands to predict a president after that with any certainty. Don’t be scared to include historical upsets and other such seemingly random or unexpected political developments to the world as we see it now for the future.
I would disagree with Hu Chunhua succeeding Xi. Hu has no support in the Chinese government anymore and has little prospects for advancing up the ranks. Predicting who would succeed Xi is basically impossible right now as he hasn't designated anybody, but it's likely a successor will come from a Politburo member who has experience as a state governor and has close relations with Xi's faction and allies.
@wildviper Honestly, Im not sure. Xi Jinping has changed up the paradigm so much. Before, we could simply look at the ages of Chinese politicians and know who was going to retire and who was going to get promoted. Back then, there were also factions but also a desire for unity and expertise, so we could assume a technocratic and compromise candidate would be selected. Traditionally, Hu Chunhua would be, and was, the obvious candidate as he fits all of the above criteria. Under Xi, we can see that those loyal and familiar to Xi get promoted, but that doesn't mean he promotes people blindly. Hu has little relation to Xi, Hu is closer to the retired and irrelevant Hu Jintao, so he wouldn’t get selected. The people who get promoted are still highly skilled and experienced. So I'd guess someone like Ding Xuexiang or Li Ganjie would be potential successors to Xi, depending on how and when Xi passes.
This sort of mirrors the Fallout franchise in someways 1.china becomes as powerful if not more so, than the US 2.more countries creat their own nukes while others just build more 3.With climate change and other factors resources become more scarce I just hope we don;t end up like fallout in end.
I don't believe Israelis would vote for Smotrich. The candidate that seems the most electable to me right now is Gantz, in the elections likely to happen in late 2024
I don't have an academic background in history, so this may come off as a silly point/nitpick. But here goes anyway: at 5:49 you explain that donald trump was elected as a backlash against immigration and globalisation. Can we reliably assign these reasons to him becoming a president? It does *make sense*, but (to me) it seems like a mono-causal explanation of a historical event that could happen for hundreds of reasons.
it's funny how south america was less important geopolitically than Africa, even when the world was struglin with an oil shortage. You also didn''t talk much about the political conflicts born from the exploit of the resources of North and South Pole.
First off, this was clearly pretty well thought out so props cuz I think like 60% of this vid is true. That being said there are some elements that have been left out that will greatly affect the course of humanity. First is the insane refugee crisis that will arrive with climate change and how that will affect nations' political stances, I can't imagine it'd go well... Remember this would be Indonesia, Cambodia, Nigeria, Myanmar, Phillipines, Malaysia and hell anything on the equator really; It is fucked how underestimated climate change is cuz it alone could and probably will cause WW3 at some point this century. Then we also have different consequences of economic systems. Capitalism is getting to its late stage because of the levels of value extrapolation and accumulating said wealth. This is made even worse by corrupt banks that keep fucking over everyone. The world currencies fall intentionally every few years, but more recessions are implying more wealth inequality which is as we know, ludacrous now. Thirdly and lastly is culture, I know this one is harder to predict but I think there's a lot more complexity and implications from how different generations grew up like gen Z with the internet (and in a place where they can't afford to live) and it's a bit reductive to assume gen Beta will just be on VR 24/7. Of course culture as a whole is really hard to predict cuz that's the whole point, stuff trends. But trends have trends so we could perhaps see a cultural boom like the 60s
