No video :(

Ginkgo Bioworks Stock | Not Looking Good

Подписаться 35 тыс.

Просмотров 6 тыс.

50% 1

#Synbio darling Ginkgo Bioworks $DNA released their 2022 results along with a 10-K filing. We perused all their year-end collateral for insights, starting with a strong increase in Foundry revenues from third parties and falling related party revenues. That's the good news. The bad news is that downstream value isn't looking so hot. Royalties declined year over year, while legacy pass-through contract manufacturing increased (why? who knows). As for milestone revenues, the majority in 2021 and 2022 for Ginkgo Bioworks came from a cannabis firm developing a CBD gummy. And get this. They actually had an impairment charge because the value from those payments didn't match what they received in return. So far, the big win for DNA stock seems to be a CBD gummy. As for the Zymergen acquisition, we look at that too along with the Bayer deal which doesn't look as hot as advertised. Again, we're avoiding Ginkgo Bioworks stock until the company proves that useful products are being developed on their platform, something that's reflected in royalties. Oh, one more thing. We'd like to see cash brought in by Foundry, er, Cell Engineering, increasing over time, not decreasing. The last few slides of this Ginkgo Biworks analysis are shocking. That's right. Just like pissing on an electric fence. So what are you waiting for? Watch this DNA stock analysis now, as your portfolio returns depend on it.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. Ginkgo Bioworks: Beware of the Bait and Switch
www.nanalyze.c...
2. Why Ginkgo Bioworks Stock Soared Yesterday
www.nanalyze.c...
3. Ginkgo Bioworks Responds to Short Seller Report
www.nanalyze.c...
4. Ginkgo Bioworks Stock Just Got a Whole Lot Riskier
www.nanalyze.c...
CHAPTERS:
Intro
Ginkgo Bioworks revenue disappointment
A basic success model for Ginkgo
Ginkgo Bioworks' downstream revenues
The CBD deal with Cronos
Ginkgo's big biopharma bet
The Zymergen acquisition
The Bayer deal
Ginkgo's 2023 revenue outlook
Analyzing cell engineering revenues
Conclusion
ABOUT US:
This video is brought to you by Nanalyze, a boutique media and research firm founded by finance professionals with decades of experience. We share insights about #DisruptiveTechnology #investments in a language that is future-proof and easy to understand.
Read all the Nanalyze Premium articles you'd like for free! Sign up for a 30-day trial of our monthly subscription with no strings attached: www.nanalyze.c...
DISCLAIMER: Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, along with independently researching and verifying, any information contained within our RU-vid videos or on our website, whether for the purpose of making an investment or otherwise.
#Ginkgo #GinkgoBioworks $DNA

Опубликовано:

18 авг 2024

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист

Посмотреть позже

Комментарии : 93

@joepiv Год назад

If you subscribe to our channel using the below link, our on-staff Romanian fortune teller will make sure whatever CBD gummies you buy will knock you on your a66. 🔮 ru-vid.com

@djsausagebiscuits Год назад

I wish the news were different, but you all are performing great analysis of this company, please continue!

@Nanalyze Год назад

Thank you for that feedback! We will.

@Tarie3988 Год назад

Thanks for posting. Been waiting for this update and it resonates with how I was thinking about this company for a while now.

@joepiv Год назад

Glad you found this analysis useful! Sometimes it helps to read an analysis that arrives at the same conclusions you do, provided you also listen to the other side as well. This comment section is great because lots of bulls come by to share thoughts as well. Useful read for anyone with skin in the game.

@danielcarrasco768 Год назад

Makes me want to buy more after watching this. Just like no one believed in Tesla, Apple and Amazon. I'm Not saying DNA will ever reach those levels but the potential is there and at 1.20 a share there is very minimal downside and HUGE upside. I'm playing this long term. I'm not concerning myself with Quarter to Quarter analysis.

@joepiv Год назад

Okay cheerleader, we get it. You're the type of person who ignores any criticism of your sacred cow and plows forward unabated. To become a better investor, learn how to accept the criticisms that those who are more risk averse lay in front of you, ponder them, even debate them. As soon as you start whipping out Tesla/Apple/Amazon analogies, you immediately expose yourself as someone with zero value to add to the conversation, someone who drinks the Kool-Aid of whatever story some C-level salesperson is pitching. We're concerned that the only great thing that has come out of downstream value so far is gummy bears. You might have more faith. Cool, but faith and $5 might get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

@joepiv Год назад

And what are you basing this "1.20 a share there is minimal downside" comment on? Did you just pluck that number out of thin air, or is there some logic behind arriving there? As with any company, these shares can go to zero. Don't be naïve.

@Nanalyze Год назад

You asked how your opinion affects our life which is actually a valid question! It doesn't, but we have 1000s of paying subscribers who read these comments. They come here for value add. That's what we're looking for. Hope this makes sense because this may be different from other channels.

@danielcarrasco768 Год назад

@@Nanalyze I don't speak for anyone else but myself. I'm merely expressing my opinion on your video and how I'm playing this company out. You have your opinions and I have mine.

@joepiv Год назад

@@danielcarrasco768 Great. Agreed. But this is hardly engaging for our paid subscribers. ;) If you want to engage, be prepared to be challenged. Best of luck with your position, genuinely. We are rooting from the sidelines.

@Nobody-rkm Год назад

OMG I am holding 25 thousand shares. I have bought it below 2 dollars. I will hold till 2040 hopefully AI will come to rescue by then 😅

@Nanalyze Год назад

Hopefully that's a smaller chunk of your overall holdings, you high roller, you. If you believe in the potential of the platform then by all means hold until that value is realized or your thesis changes. As for AI, maybe by 2040 it will have - in its infinite wisdom - figured out a way to make us all successful investors who beat whatever benchmark gets put in front of them. Zero sum game? Bah.

@Nobody-rkm Год назад

@@Nanalyze 2% is f my portfolio

@Nanalyze Год назад

52-week low is $1.19 which means at a minimum Raman is working with $1,487,500. Nice work man! Make sure to focus on preservation as much as appreciation. Totally unrelated question. Have you checked out our premium offering lately? www.nanalyze.com/become-a-nanalyze-premium-subscriber/

@ericcuellar9549 11 месяцев назад

You should consider doing an updated video soon now that they landed the Google partnership. And Recursion landed the Nvidia partnership.

@Nanalyze 11 месяцев назад

Our cursory look at "the Google partnership" shows a nothing burger. We're not impressed by press releases, just revenues ;) As for Recursion, we've discussed that with Premium subscribers as it's slightly more interesting but also needs to be put into context. Thank you for the comment! It's very useful when people bring up things as we may have missed them.

@johndoe1646 Год назад

Great research as always. When public companies pay eachother using shares, how often is that asset value recalculated? I.e. if a company that ginkgo is holding goes to 0, does their book still show the asset as worth something?

@Nanalyze Год назад

Very good question. We thought about this. They could theoretically sell all the shares immediately, but that's not how things work. Downwards pricing pressure and available liquidity affects that, not to mention terms of the deal. What happens instead - and is observed in the Ginkgo filings - is that they sit on shares that decline over time. Sure, it's a bear market, but all their investments (even startups) are declining. If a share goes to zero the value is zero and probably removed. They recalculate every quarter or annually, not sure which for $DNA.

@markpaddey2015 Год назад

Overall I'm quite bullish on the company, but really appreciate these videos as they highlight some of my blindspots and aspects of the business I overlooked. I'd far rather have a balanced thesis than a bull thesis and ignore half the story. Thanks again!

@Nanalyze Год назад

You're quite welcome! Excellent attitude you have. Always be the most critical of the firms you're most bullish on. There's a great story here - a phenomenal one - but we just want to see more platform successes.

@Nobody-rkm Год назад

Be patient as warren buffet and benjamin graham said however hope is not the best strategy

@Nanalyze Год назад

Patience, yes! Hope? That and $5 won't get a cup of coffee at Starbucks ;)

@StevenNess Год назад

Just to be clear, CBG is not CBD. It is a precursor to CBD and has a different pharmacology. There are some good videos on youtube about this. Producing novel drug molecules that are hard to make in plants is exactly what Ginkgo is working on. However, biology is harder than rocket science, unfortunately, so sometimes things take a while.

@Nanalyze Год назад

True enough, but whatever is being produced needs to make the customer - the person paying for the research - money otherwise it's worth eff all. As the video points out, this first success story is mediocre at best. Yes, good things do take a while.

@StevenNess Год назад

@@Nanalyze thank you, that's a great point, and the customers have not made much money if at all so far. finished the video after I wrote this comment, and really liked your analysis.

@Nanalyze Год назад

@@StevenNess Thank you for the engagement and feedback!

@dougtrvl888 Год назад

Great Review Joe , Especially regarding the risks of this speculative stock I have 12,000 shares at a cost of 3.2 dollars & that’s 1.5 % of my Portfolio. Still I’m going to add another 5,000 shares at these lows as I think if they perform better than expected & we exit this bear market in the next 6 months it could pop to 5 dollars. Completely speculative in my part But I have many other solid picks to rely on . Best , Doug

@Nanalyze Год назад

Always great to hear your comments Doug, especially when you point out that the risks you are taking reflect a small percentage of your overall assets. You know the old saying - "If it's the next Microsoft, all I need is a little. If it's not the next Microsoft, I'm glad I only invested a little." Be wary about setting price targets based on arbitrary share prices. Better to say, "if we exit this bear market in the next 6 months (fingers crossed), it could pop to a market cap of $10 billion, up from the $2.6 billion market cap it commands today. :)

@joepiv Год назад

@@starbright1458 No cheerleading "rocket" comments please. Deleted.

@dougtrvl888 Год назад

@@Nanalyze Thanks Joe , are you planning anytime soon to revisit a discussion about Stoneco ?

@joepiv Год назад

@@dougtrvl888 Perhaps this summer as we typically check in with stocks once per year.

@mrfrugal1091 Год назад

I'm continuing to cost average into Ginkgo, I have 500 shares and will keep buying to 1000 and hold for 20 years.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Good long term horizon, great idea to dollar-cost-average into volatile stocks, but don't fall in love with any stock. Hold until your thesis changes.

@MrEvertonian20 Год назад

You are brilliant at analysing the here and now. Forecasting tailwinds and putting a value on potential, not so much, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers in front of you. Many of the best investments require vision beyond the short term numbers. Thanks for sharing.

@Nanalyze Год назад

We get the vision. It's the same one promised now for decades by various synbio firms. It's totally clear, but this brings up an important point. If this is "the next Microsoft," waiting for additional validation before going long is perfectly acceptable. In other words, we're perfectly happy to exchange some upside for additional confirmation that the platform works as promised. There is no FOMO here. Thank you for the feedback and very pleased you found value in the piece!

@MrEvertonian20 Год назад

@@Nanalyze yes that makes sense and revisiting in 12 months is a sensible approach, no doubt. Although I don’t expect much to change, and judging by management clinging onto their pile of cash for dear life I don’t think they do either. That said, synbio will become extremely valuable to the economy and nobody will be replacing or coming close to Ginkgo’s tech, so it’s a fair bet.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Makes you wonder what synbio startups are being funded these days. (Makes mental note to check) To say that nobody will replace or come close to Ginkgo's technology seems a stretch. Is that based on what management says? The amount of money they've taken in? The time they've been at it? Agree that of the recent players - Amyris/Codexis/Zymergen/Ginkgo that the latter is the leader, but that doesn't automatically give them carte blanche to reap all the rewards of synbio. As always, the proof is in the revenue growth - and we're looking for cash revenue growth that's not from related parties.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Thought of one just now. They have a data advantage over others. But again, comes down to monetizing it.

@MrEvertonian20 Год назад

@@Nanalyze data is one, and a significant one, but they also have the AI flywheel and vastly automated labs, it’s not easy to replicate. Then consider they have the best minds in the business at the heart of it, such as Tom Knight and confirmed by the likes of Drew Endy. Backed by a mountain of cash and the US government who are clearly on board. Of course the numbers need to head in the right direction but as you’ve said yourself, the valuation is good here. All in all, a fair bet, which is all the stock market is at the end of the day. The manipulation is disgusting (on a separate note!)

@Nobody-rkm Год назад

Founder lead company, good support from government I think it’s going to take off in few years 😊

@Nanalyze Год назад

Founder led isn't always a good thing. Government support? Not always a good thing either. As for "taking off" in the next few years, we invest in companies, not stocks. Let's hope they start hitting their key metrics and stop diluting shareholders. Note that the accompanying research piece talks about dilution and a number of other points the video didn't cover: www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/ginkgo-bioworks-bait-switch/

@johndoe1646 Год назад

@Nanalyze can you elaborate on that point? Isn't the government supposed to improve the commercialization of long-term innovations ? Government support increases their runway. Would tesla have survived if it wasn't for carbon credits?

@joepiv Год назад

@@johndoe1646 Can you elaborate on what tangible benefits Ginkgo has received so far from the government? That data wasn't included in this analysis. This piece is an example of how quickly a bureaucratic government can muck things up while trying to be "helpful." www.nanalyze.com/2022/05/solar-stocks-america-solar-problem/

@Nanalyze Год назад

@John Doe To clarify, we're not aware of runway being increased (aside from previous COVID stuff) for Ginkgo based on latest messaging from White House.

@jamesgrasso1980 Год назад

Why so many reviews on a company you have continually discounted as unworthy for investment?

@Nanalyze Год назад

Good question James. Massive interest. No stock out there commands nearly as much interest as this one. We receive more requests to cover this firm than any other, and our original piece remains our most popular video. You will see in the comments soon enough just how many people disagree with our assessment, so we're in the minority when we say this stock should be avoided. Synbio is the single most exciting theme we cover, so we'd love to be long Ginkgo, but this video explains why we're not.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Also worth noting that one of these days we're hoping to be sufficiently convinced the platform works as advertised, then we can make a case for going long at the right valuation. Every time we revisit, it's not to make the same points again, it's to discover new information that helps sway a decision in either direction.

@Nanalyze Год назад

@Mer Bal Our fortune teller is busy at the moment so we can't predict what the company will do. We can only analyze the facts that we know today and arrive at a conclusion which is to not invest in this company until we're sufficiently convinced their platform works as advertised. Regarding what other active managers do, we don't pay much attention to that. ARK invested in Organovo at one point in time, and we cannot fathom why except to suspect (as mentioned in this piece: www.nanalyze.com/2021/10/ginkgo-bioworks-stock-riskier/ and others) that they spend a lot of time talking to management teams which is an absolute waste of time. That's old school behavior which can easily be bypassed when you understand these media-trained spokespersons are just glorified salespeople. We have no idea why ARK does what they do, nor the time/resources to try and figure that out. ;)

@Dementia.Pugilistica Год назад

@merbal3966 cathie wood is caught up in the idea that innovation and ideas trump valuation and metrics. She's just too obsessed with shiny objects and not whether they're made of gold or fool's gold. Obviously a good idea is valuable and you'd think it would be hard for a good idea to not make money, eventually, but there's no shortage of corrupt or incompetent companies that will fail a good idea at the cost of shareholders.

@musaran2 Год назад

@@merbal3966 ARK is in general too naïve, if not downright gullible. They "buy the narratives".

@kyles3203 Год назад

Glad I sold out of this stock when I saw your video a year ago

@Nanalyze Год назад

Always act on your own convictions please! We only present our findings, and our course of action based on those findings, which is meant to simply supplement the decision making of others. Institutional investors we speak with always say we inform their decisions, not dictate them. That's what we love to hear!

@davidcunningham2074 6 месяцев назад

gingko's stock price is tempting, but after watching this i think it's got further to fall.

@Nanalyze 6 месяцев назад

Always be sure to invest in companies, not stocks. We'll do an update on them when 2023 results come out.

@user-oe5iq4wi2s Год назад

Great research

@Nanalyze Год назад

Appreciate you taking the time to let us know! ;)

@ernieb820 Год назад

To a hammer every problem looks like a nail. I see value in your views, but many of your bearish statments are ridiculously off. Its obvious you are looking for the bad in everything. Those spinach feels sold off the shelf and were not available regularly. Secondly yes people do care if a cbd product is eviormentaly friendly. I vould go on and on but it would be pointless.

@Nanalyze Год назад

People that say things like "I could go on and on but it would be pointless" usually don't have anything of value to offer our audience. We're risk averse investors, not people who drink Kool-Aid mate. Maybe you're not accustomed to professional investors analyzing your sacred cow? What facts presented in this video do you disagree with exactly?

@voidfinality Год назад

But isn’t this the time to load up? When it’s struggling & the price reflects that, this is when it presents opportunity to buy

@Nanalyze Год назад

Yes and no. It *may present an opportunity to buy. There's lots of research that needs to be done (why is it struggling, are they working to turn things around, what are the risks?) It really depends on your tolerance for risk. We're risk averse investors, so we need to be very certain of our conviction in a stock before we invest. Plus, it helps us sleep well at night. :) We're going to keep an eye on Ginkgo and if anything changes, we'll re-assess. You might have a higher risk tolerance and therefore be able to take a bet on Ginkgo stock's recovery. Either way, we'll be watching to see how this one plays out! -Wyatt C.

@Dementia.Pugilistica Год назад

Another Cathie Wood tea leaf position lol I wonder if it was Jesus or Batman in an overheated sauna that told her to buy this one?! She had such a nice sales pitch about innovation and deflation and all that but christ she doesn't know a goddamn thing about valuations or tangible metrics, does she? It shocks me how people who seemingly know so little about the markets can be in charge of billions of dollars of funding... I thought I just didn't know enough to know what I was missing when I first encountered her (dunning kruger effect) because I'm relatively new to investing myself (a few years), but I really don't think this is the case anymore...

@Nanalyze Год назад

Humorous comment indeed, but hear us out. ;) It's very important to not rush to judgement before (as the old saying goes) the big beautiful woman with a myriad of weight-related health problems belts forth a tune. Cathie sees a payoff timeline that is 5-10 years away. As for her conviction in Ginkgo, there's nothing saying this company won't be a dominant synbio player down the road. However, our analysis leads us to believe that it's not going too well for them so far. Others vehemently disagree, and that's why being a successful investor is so difficult. We're puzzled by some of what ARK says and does which is why we don't pay much attention to it. They're an active manager with loads of resources and it's impossible to know why they do what they do by peering in from the outside. Thank you for taking the time to engage with comments.

@benharris8335 Год назад

Cathie is spreading her bets on the upcoming decades of biological advancement. If you look back on the 2021 “bubble” it served to inject cash into this industry, whom benefitted from ludicrous valuation. We’re in a similar situation in this space to what was seen in 2000/2001 (in my humble opinion). The bubble itself will be the catalyst for advancement in this space. In the aggregate will she prevail? Who knows. Will Ginkgo fail? Perhaps? Regardless, If she does prevail, retail will see her as a divine effigy once more and you’ll find all her failures are quickly forgotten. We will see what happens in the next bull market 👀

@Nanalyze Год назад

@Ben Harris here articulated it way better than we did, thank you Ben. Great analogy to 2000/2001. It's super exciting to think about well positioned for the next bull market. Volatility goes both ways, something critics quickly forget.

@Dementia.Pugilistica Год назад

@@Nanalyze that's fair brother!! I actually own a small position (which has gotten considerably smaller lol). I'm salty on cathie because i bought into the hype before i knew what i do today... i am constantly confounded with her general strategy and what her analysts look at, and very concerned to say the least at some of her answers of lets say... divine inspiration...

@glitchlife4639 Год назад

I bet it was Batman, the company we deserve, not the company we need.

@jeffrman777 Год назад

I just avoid anything “disruptive” these days, saves me a lot of headache.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Understandable. Sleeping well at night is underrated.

@billcarney829 Год назад

The CEO is slick, too slick.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Good point Bill, as we've heard similar comments. The presenter of this video can claim he's never spent one minute listening to the CEO speak. CEOs are trained to speak to media and rare is it the case you will learn one useful thing from people who are essentially the company's most important salesperson. We all understand the bull thesis loud and clear. The ground truth of success will be in looking at the cash that people pay and who is paying it.

@timothyhsu9418 Год назад

@@Nanalyze their scientists are solid. Would love to see their platform transpires

@joepiv Год назад

@@timothyhsu9418 Of the large number of failed synbio firms, many have had scientists with remarkable pedigrees. It all comes down to what customers are willing to pay for. You are correct. The outcome of this company will be worthy of a case study. Let's see how they get on in 2023.

@Longtack55 Год назад

Going backwards. $2B costs, $0.5B revenue and only getting worse.

@Nanalyze Год назад

Would need to back out stock based compensation which probably has a big impact. We need to see more downstream success stories to know that the platform truly has legs.

@Frenetic321 Год назад

Spinach #1 edible in Canada- whatever that’s worth

@Nanalyze Год назад

It's not worth much considering the IP was written down by the company that purchased it. Highly unlikely anyone purchasing it has any idea the world's greatest synbio platform was used to produce the gummy. Do you have a source for a third party stating that it's the #1 edible in Canada by sales, or did the company say it's the #1 edible? Thank you.

@HaalandViking Год назад

April 26 Gingko put on its website: Today sec reports insiders have been selling like crazy, 100k of shares daily for last three months by ceo and other key executives. This company is dead. Glad I didn’t buy. Thanks for the video

@Nanalyze Год назад

The company is far from dead. You cannot blame two people who were given $360 million in shares EACH during a single year for wanting to take some of that windfall off the table. We're more concerned with a cannabis gummy being the only big win so far in downstream. Glad you enjoyed the vid! :)