I own Ginkgo, double the money in few weeks, thanks god took profit just in time. I still own it and i don't know what to do, may be sell it and buy something else. Greetings from Turin Italy
Gianpaolo. It's always lovely to hear from all the I-talians out there. ;) I have family in Northern Italy and nothing gets better a Sopressa and giardiniera sandwich in the mornings. Glad to hear you're navigating the markets with profits, just make sure to be an investor, not a speculator. ;) Joe P.
Really glad you enjoyed the piece. Of course it's not over until the big beautiful woman sings (and we ain't talking about Aunt Cathie). Time will tell as to whether Ginkgo ends up transforming into the exalted synbio leader they've always wanted to be. Investing in tech stocks is extremely risky, and investors often lose a lot of money waiting for some grand vision to be realized, Aunt Cathie included. It's par for the course when you're playing a tough game.
Great video. I share the same annoyance and frustration. This company needs real adults in management to replace the jokers that are running it. A massive opportunity and TAM that is just being pissed away. I'm an MIT alum and it gives me no pleasure to say what an embarrassment they are making of MIT, themselves and most importantly, shareholders.
@afrocraft1 Not sure who you directed the question to but it's a fair point. It's always easy to be an armchair quarterback. We've been critical of how this company operates for a very long time and you'd have to go through all those pieces to then list out all the things that we believe this company could do differently. It would be a long list. Objectively, they're not executing on their grand vision and capitalizing on the opportunity. We've seen this before in synbio so we recognize the wheels spinning.
@@afrocraft1Two issues: (1) Execution and (2) Quality of earnings/revenue. On #1, If you look at the outlook they have presented throughout their time as a public co (2021/2/3), they have never hit their forecasted foundry/cell engineering revs (or total). Biosecurity was aided by covid and appropriately on the decline. On #2, see the auditor's note on p103 of 10k. Tells me they are struggling growing their cell engineering to have rev recognition issues. Laughable that they used to compare their model to aws (a 30% operating margin business), with so many "programs" added annually you'd expect different performance. Don't get me started about stock based comp (which in fairness has improved drastically). I used to be a sell-side equity research analyst and I wish the folks who cover this DNA would call them out on their poor execution. Anyway, apologies for the rant.
Thanks Joe! I’d appreciate a high level summary video of the whole bio ecosystem for a direct comparison of where these companies sit relative to one another.
I wonder why their foundry can’t make enough product for biopharma, you’d think even a little of these high margin molecules would sell like crazy. Also any info how much their c-suite execs are taking off the table? I think I saw it was a lot
Ginkgo works with loads of companies (per their investor deck) and also has a relationship with Twist based on past information disclosed by Twist. Aside from that, I'm not sure there is much else to describe here. Maybe sometime in the future we can take a holistic look at all synbio companies out there, but that information is also in our tech stock catalog as well. Joe P.
Regarding past comp, we've produced a ton of content on Ginkgo and it's all documented in our pieces - something like $764 million for two executives in a single year? You'd need to look at our past research as we've spent a ton of time researching this firm and documenting our findings. Joe P.
@@NanalyzeI know it’s out there but a summary highlighting the strategy (consulting, platform with disposables, royalties) paired with their position in the ecosystem would be a unique take and enlightening. As the most compelling thesis it may be worth the time. Either way you’re the man keep at it - I also love your gems around B school and traveling 👌🏼
@@adamhanninen8295 Oh gotcha. So really about their business model. Well, it's hard to say what they have now after all the acquisitions and constant pivots and changes. Maybe that's your point ;) It's very hard to see that detail from the outside which isn't a good thing. They haven't made things simple. I'll keep this in mind going forward. I think after this check in I'm not sure we'll want to spend much time digging around. If they can right the ship and correct some of the problems like showing COGS and more downstream wins then maybe we would go that direction when considering a long position. Glad you enjoy the style and humor of the videos and me dropping little travel takes :) Joe P.
They covered that in their deck. Some of that selling is for taxes on what they hold. That said, we always need to put insider selling into context (covered here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-UWNVuZ8wixY.html) and Ginkgo paid an absolutely ridiculous amount of comp to their top two executives (we've covered this before). And what do investors have to show for it? Well, the video kind of talks about the problems we see, share price aside.
Great video. I enjoyed the earnings presentation specifically platform comparisons Nividia doesn’t make their chips TMSC does. DNA is the platform. Also one of the companies they bought was AI related and just 4 people.
“If Ginkgo Bioworks, once evaluated as the Amazon of the bio-industry, sees its stock price fall to one dollar, isn’t that utterly miserable? The executives of the company owe a heartfelt apology for this situation.”✡✡✡
The price of the shares is only relevant when it falls below a dollar because they then need to reverse split to stay listed on a major exchange. Heartfelt apologies and $5 might get you two Whopper Juniors on sale ;)
We've been following the story for a long time and - especially when you consider all the synbio failures in the past - would really like to see more proof that this platform that harnesses nature produces some real value for end consumers.
One question to keep in mind is what would happen to their investment in Synlogic, which is ceasing operations? I like the idea that they're invested in the success of their customers, but the risk for early biotech is huge
I am hopeful about Gingko's future but take your warning seriously. You didn't mention the association now with Google, to 'teach AI to think in DNA. It is interesting to see where this leads.
We're very wary of companies that go spend a bunch of money on Google Cloud and then get a "partnership" press release. The ground truth for any company with a great story and lots of press releases is always revenue growth. Ginkgo might be one of the most exciting stories out there which is why we're going to be following them very closely.
I've watched youtube videos with google reps hailing the partnership and explaining the potential for discovery. I don't think it is in Google's interest to have their representative tout the partnership if it is merely transactionally based. My opinion.@@Nanalyze
We did warn investors about both those companies. We were chastised to the ends of the earth for daring to say that Amyris was going nowhere fast. When it went bankrupt, crickets.
I believe in synbio, long term. I am concerned though, when in Q3 CEO avoided the question of what % of poejects succeed. And I can only imagine Jason and team are working to make it throught the biopharma milestones in the new contracts they signed, otherwise they are doomed.
Synbio is the most compelling thesis we cover. It's also littered with failures. The $1 billion of milestones "going away" is something we have a lot of questions about. What happened with that "large customer?" What about the other customers who bailed on those milestone payments? The new milestone payments are now most likely starting from an earlier time. Not sure what Jason and team are up to, but every time we look at annual results we find more things to be concerned about.
@@Nanalyze My big concern is their inability to convince us that their acquisitions are collectively working together and making DNA a better platform. I have a few thousand shares and believe that there still is potential....BUT... if their cash position goes below 400 million and I do not see any improvement... I will sell!
@@FAC1806 Hey Frank. These last three acquisitions were odd - very small, almost like aqui-hires. The Zymergen acquisition was just off. They have a great platform, that's why investors threw money at them hand over fist, so why the need to mess around with adding things to it? Doesn't seem to be helping them exceed expectations. Every time I look at this company I leave with more questions than answers. Joe P.
Any time we look at what active managers do we need to a) realize that there are any number of reasons they trade and b) put the trades into context. That's a $3.2 million trade and her flagship ETF has $6.7 billion in assets under management.
If insiders are selling and selling the stock goes down and down again , don’t swimming against the waves , take your losses. I don’t like the ceo bla bla bla
This reminds me of the destruction of planet earth by “ the grey goo” where we invent self replicating nano substance that takes over and converts all matter on earth into grey goo. Probably should have invested in this.
@@tommorrissey8806 The company could easily do anything. Day trading is speculation and it's not encouraged here because nearly all people who engage in it will have their asses handed to them given a sufficiently long time frame. Technical analysis is astrology for men. That said, everyone will do what they think works and discover over time how wealth gets created. Very glad you are enjoying our videos! Joe P.
What we've earned over decades of doing this is that it matters not whether management acts in a malicious intent or is simply incompetent. The end result for bag holders is the same. The promising story Ginkgo tells is probably one of the most compelling out there. What we're not seeing here is execution that's commensurate to the extremely lofty pay packages management has been clearing.
We really don't know what their potential for profitability is because we don't have COGS. The CEO's job is to tell everyone a great story. They're great at telling stories, but we focus on numbers.
Can we please stop using the s-word around here? If you have a criticism about the company, please level it. Comments on our video? Great. Doing a drive-by with the s-word adds no value to anyone and diminishes the quality and quantity of research that went into this video. Thank you! Joe P.
