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GME Call Volatility Explained

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The content presented is for informational purposes only and any opinions, news, research, analyses, or other information contained in these videos are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. esInvests, its affiliates, and employees are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information presented in these videos. esInvests does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information presented in these videos and is not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of or reliance on this information. By accessing and watching these videos, viewers acknowledge and agree to these disclosures and terms of use.

Опубликовано:

22 авг 2024

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Комментарии : 70

@jarjarss5123 2 месяца назад

Just the FACTS mang!

@justinvrooman818 2 месяца назад

I’m still holding Aug 16 $30 calls. I sleep like a baby. Looking to unload most at $37 and let the last 8 run as far as they can. Base hits.

@ivanchernenko9879 2 месяца назад

What is your thesis for such a bullish run, after 2 secondary offerings flooded the market with new shares and such a dismal earnings report?

@tannerjohnson145 2 месяца назад

@@ivanchernenko9879 4 billion in cash? Lowest P/C ratio in the companies history Personally I think the massive dilution hurt any potential for positive short term price action.

@bean_3440 2 месяца назад

@@ivanchernenko9879they have 4 billion in cash, and worst case scenario they put it in a 5% t bill earning hundreds of millions becoming profitable. With this cash they could issue dividends. Additionally they could do more share offerings earning more capital to be able to acquire new companies. Ryan Cohen is with the new times he knows GME needs to change their business model. Additionally, there is so many eyes and other than HFs not many people are selling/placing puts. The high RSI contrary to belief shows a lot of people are purchasing shares (high RSI isn’t always bad). Finally, the absolute lowest the company can be worth is $18 a share (equivalent to all there assets) so sitting at $25-$30 calls is pretty solid, especially since the charts show bullish momentum. We know something big is going to happen since there is so many eyes on the stock, it would be a waste to not do something with the company with everyone watching their every move. Another personal reason I like this stock, is no matter what we are in inflationary or recessionary market period, GME will continue to produce cash making it a pretty good investment, post election.

@cansore 2 месяца назад

Is there a bear thesis?

@JustSomeITguy 2 месяца назад

With no catalyst on the horizon GME will drift down to around 13$ within the next 6 weeks and sit there waiting for some catalyst. IV will drop to nil. Q: Am I right 8-ball? A: ✓

@Th3ron3 2 месяца назад

Appreciate your candid take. More difficult than you’d think to find unbiased yet informative information on this stock.

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

I appreciate that!

@johncox5839 2 месяца назад

@@OutlierTradingI second that. Very level headed approach and you are helping the little guy understand risk and how that apple to where we’ve placed our bets. Can’t thank you enough. They may need you in Congress in the coming weeks to explain all this lol

@tannerjohnson145 2 месяца назад

1:45 We would definitely ALWAYS like to know your ideas. Do not be afraid of “hype” or “FUD” claims. Your options analysis has been fact driven and unbiased. So imo, as long as it remains that way anybody crying about hype or FUD can pipe down and keep it moving

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

appreciate the comment!

@tannerjohnson145 2 месяца назад

Another great video. Appreciate the rationale, sobering fact driven analysis! The APPL IV comparison with the put skew is exactly what I was trying to explain to a lot of people. The overall rise in IV definitely is interesting however.

@tyd7295 2 месяца назад

Thanks for the commentary on this situation. Love hearing about how this is being broken down from your perspective

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

it's been a blast to follow my dude, fascinating movement

@shrejay2469 2 месяца назад

I am disappointed that you were not here for the fat tails. Well.. more for me friend! 😂. Wait just saw your other comment. Nice one breda

@tyd7295 2 месяца назад

@@shrejay2469 cmon Shre… you know my mustache and I always gotta leave a comment about them fat tails 😉😂

@lltheFacell 2 месяца назад

I sold some puts in the 50-120 range and my breakeven price is 24-33. Insane.

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

interesting place to sell puts haha

@mikep6167 2 месяца назад

Thanks for sharing your knowledge man! 8:25 what do you mean by "shell game"? Is there another video of yours that goes into that subject?

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

na, just a phrase. comes from a game played on the streets of las vegas, where street hustlers put a pea under some bottlecaps and move it around (seemingly REALLY slow). players bet on where the pea is and they always get it wrong - because the shell game is rigged, it's sleight of hand. there seems to be some "sleight of hand" going on with shares of GME.

@mikep6167 2 месяца назад

@@OutlierTradingdo you think GME is an outlier? or is this is systemic thing?

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

I think it's broadly systemic but GME is a great example of where it can be overstated.

@tannerjohnson145 2 месяца назад

Thoughts on the massive amount of deep ITM puts opened for next week?

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

GREAT question - can take a look closer at them, what strike are you looking at?

@robertFat804 2 месяца назад

I was curious about this as well

@MinecraftSurge 2 месяца назад

wait, how are people going to take advantage of IV being super high by going bullish? The IV multiplies the premium, if people buy calls, when the IV collapses, they will lose most of their position. It's like sticking your head in a mouse trap. I don't get that part.

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

you've got it down, that's the tricky part with that kind of position

@MinecraftSurge 2 месяца назад

@@OutlierTrading soooo then people wouldn't be rushing in to do a bullish skew if the IV is so high... Unless it's like a bunch of people yoloing their money away. Maybe the market makers are just manually raising the IV to take everyone's shirt on gme.

@johncox5839 2 месяца назад

Keep these coming! These are great

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

More to come!

@rogerlin6197 2 месяца назад

Is it normal that the closer expiration experience a bigger jump especially for a stock like GME?

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

Potentially. Typically as time passes, the market would pare down the expectation of how wide a move the stock might make. So the fact as time is passing AND the expected move is not changing is what creates part of the expansion we see in expiration volatility.

@avocadapancake5996 2 месяца назад

Have you seen Richard newtons FTD video? I don't understand it very well, but we think the boom and bust cycles may be able to be predicted through FTD's and opex tailwind events

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

it cool be, i'm learning more about that thesis as well but some of it does look like pattern seeking so it's hard to fully tell, this is a completely prelim thought though. I need to look at it more deeply.

@AlibekSansyzbayev 2 месяца назад

also peruvian bull is onto this theory with his latest video. Check it out!

@rastaman39 2 месяца назад

Can you look at the Darpool Abuse the FTDs please

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

anything in particular? have any links you can share here?

@ysayahhelton6118 2 месяца назад

What do you think about AMC options? I have some contracts and GME&AMC run together. I'd like to hear your input,thanks!

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

I haven't looked too much at AMC chains lately, not really the same activity i'm seeing in GME but will take another look.

@tyd7295 2 месяца назад

Ohhhh baby. Love me some good FAT TAIL talk in general but doubling up with some GME talk got me all hot and sweaty 🥵

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

my boy - we get by with a lil fat tails

@CalmDownJack 2 месяца назад

so down to …. 20?

@PhatAspirations 2 месяца назад

what do you mean by shell game?

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

comes from a game played on the streets of las vegas, where street hustlers put a pea under some bottlecaps and move it around (seemingly REALLY slow). players bet on where the pea is and they always get it wrong - because the shell game is rigged, it's sleight of hand. there seems to be some "sleight of hand" going on with shares of GME.

@noahwilliams7200 2 месяца назад

There’s nothing here IV for way out of the money calls always ramp up when we get close to expiring

@brucewhite9657 2 месяца назад

What do you think about SPCE??

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

looks like it's in a really rough spot.

@joshdyer6932 2 месяца назад

Wow cool

@johncox5839 2 месяца назад

Congress is taking on synthetic shorting / shell game in committee June 27. We shall see what this digs up… huge banks failing. All major stock markets huge volatility and ATH with sharp rejections this morning. Buckle up.

@shawninhell1611 2 месяца назад

chat is this real

@chrisferguson3138 2 месяца назад

Well when the IV% skyrockets it means the price of stock should drop when the IV% drops it means the price of stock should rise

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

not necessarily - the options IV can move separate from underlying price.

@DiiegoAlves 2 месяца назад

🇧🇷 estou comprando a memecoin da (GME) ela esta dando um bom retorno, vai pra lua. 🚀

@MinecraftSurge 2 месяца назад

market manipulation?

@JOHN_WICK_101 2 месяца назад

Save your money

@JosueRodriguez-li5zs 2 месяца назад

Good momentum to sell covered calls due to high IV.

@Jerzeecanuck 2 месяца назад

I seen a whale alert. Somebody bought 100 call GME options for Jan 16, 2026(not a typo) @ 20 STRIKE. They spent ~$120,000 I wonder who the buyer was? 🤔 😸

@OutlierTrading 2 месяца назад

Interesting - long dated too. Not too large of a position but curious nonetheless. Smart structure for the trade too.

@zerkingpro 2 месяца назад

Tomorrow my first option expires only $500 tho next week and the week after shit we better get past $30 or I’ll lose a couple grand lol idc it’s only a little bit