Don’t know about the rest of the world but in the UK 🇬🇧 “THE WATCH MARKET IS DEAD” ☠️ Some watches including Rolex are now selling for under retail , investors have walked away from the idea of buying due to the drop. Also it’s no longer safe to wear these watches in the UK , watch robberies are at an all time high. I have personally lost out on the watch game buying pieces at the peak but at the end of the day It is what it is !! The watch market is Dead ☠️
The funniest thing those dealers complains about making a 10% profit Try and sell them your watch and if they’ll be paying 10% off the market price, you’ll be lucky to get offered 25% the market price and these are with most desirable pieces. Regards to regular pieces just forget about it. Message to those dealers : STOP PRETENDING YOU ARE IN 10% MARGIN
Two huge You tubers, and bricks and mortar grey market dealers, offered me 1k below list on a one day old fully stickered chocolate face daytona! lol. They had one selling for 37k. Same one, offered me below list, on a unworn everose gold yachtmaster on an oysterflex, they had one on for 38k
@@davidbrown9947 quite obvious that the grey dealers are not relevant in their current form. Back to selling second hand watches for second hand prices is what will happen. Was it a 116515 or 116505? The 116515 you can sell to and end user for a small profit. The 116505😬… Both beautiful watches by the way. Have the Choco on OF my self. Also, having a precious metal watch listed above retail at the moment, and then selling the watch above retail, are two very different things. No YM RG, WG or TT are trading above retail anymore. Except for the Falcons Eye.
One company made 900k profit another 500k profit after all costs and that’s yes as you say what was declared…I think that paints enough of a picture for you to work out the rest? Many dealers did very well at the peak indeed not pointless at all
Retained earnings is after dividends and PAYE. Income statements which have a breakdown of these specifically are not publicly available which is a shame because then we could also see specific margins. Beyond this analysis we can do some ratio/ formulae but that’s as far as we can go with a balance sheet alone
I love all the detail Vinny - great education. I think the more transparent dealers probably operate this way and make their money in volume. I do question all the guys running around spending 10K on dinner 3x a week driving 300K G-Wagons. That math doesn't add up.
Thanks! And yes well they say it’s ‘marketing’ and perhaps in the US there’s more leniency on putting that into the reported expenses but in the UK it’s difficult to get away with
It's worth mentioning that a prominent UK trader was raided recently (you made a video on this) because of suspected money laundering. That same dealer several years earlier was fined around £350K for a tax underpayment of £500K so recently published figures may be later found incorrect, Still good to have a qualified accountant take us through some figures. Thanks
Yes of course mate, well there’s always a level of pushing the limits of why is tax avoidance and what is tax evasion but those limits will always be pushed! Thanks for watching
I see that you have expirence with Rolex.What do you think about buy 2-3 Submariner,put in a box for 15-20 years with out use this ones? Thanks in advance
never buy several of one watch for an investment portfolio. this is true for all investing, diversify and spread your investments across vintage and neo pieces and beyond just one brand
@@vinnyfrancis wich oned exactly do you think will increase the value over the years?70's,80's,90's.... If I buy a Submariner no date and take It 15 years with out touch the watch,Will take some value,or is better to buy de vintage only? Thanks for your expertise!!!
Hi vinny I hope you and your family and friends are all keeping well and healthy, and you have had a lovely positive weekend 😊 another great honest video? I am looking forward to watching your next video. Take care and enjoy the rest of your evening and week kind regards Karl
Great info as always. Thanks for bringing up the "watch market is dead camp" as it gets the attention of dealers these days. I believe its a good balance today compared to 2020-2022 interms of messaging that is being targeted for genuine buyers.
Cheers James! Yes I think it needed to be addressed, I do really enjoy the channel where that catchphrase derives from though, it’s entertaining and at the end of the day if it’s entertaining it doesn’t matter wether you agree with it or not😂
Some of those companies make an healthy profit but at the cost of going more in debt to grow the business revenue. And as you pointed out, the slim net margins will be even slimmer with rising interest rates so they won't be able to keep borrowing to fuel their watch purchases. It's no surprise so many dealers want to sell on consignment.
Hi Vinny, do you access to these companies Income statements as well? Would be good to see Revenue, GP % & SG&A and eventually EBIT (%) prior to retained earning posting. BS analysis was great!
Sadly not ! The income statements are not published so sadly I can’t compare margins from dealer to dealer and deeper ratio analysis. Thanks for your feedback though!
Well these retained earnings figures are after tax, here in the UK for those statements it sits at 19% but in 2023 our great government have hiked it to 25%
Vinny, I work in PE, and spend hours a day going through annual and management accounts. Who are these companies? You got these accounts from companies house, so it is a matter of public record??
Vinnie, lets see what the next years accounts say, they will be a car crash. You never said if these accounts were audited or not, it makes a huge difference...
@@vinnyfrancis Ahh, I see. Our PE fund would never invest in a potential target company absent the accounts being audited as a starting point, we then do our extremely thorough DD after that . I don't trust any of these cunts.
Ah well yes an investor will need to go the extra mile, all businesses push the boundaries of tax avoidance which is legal so yes it can be assumed in real terms that all of these analysed are doing slightly better than reported
I would have thought the accounts would be somewhat less positive in the YE 2023. Depends how quickly the dealers were able to sell stock as the market fell, and a function of how much stock was on hand at the start of March, but margins are hard to maintain in a fast falling market. Also I would have thought the creditor lines falling due in less than 1 year is bank debt (maybe some consignment liabilities) but rising interest rates will have put earnings under pressure too. Interesting video anyway.
Hi first of all if consignment stock is shown on the balance sheet then that’s false accounting. IFRS dictates that revenues arising from consignment should be realised when made, never and asset nor liability. And these are the latest published accounts of these companies so most come before the market correction, as I said though I doubt for some there will be losses as they seem to be doing too well. Bump in the road for the well established dealers and the next accounts will show a dip
@@vinnyfrancis Point taken on IFRS accounting of consignments. Would be interesting to see how the numbers compare for the following year in a falling market with a background of rampant inflation and higher interest costs; just playing devils advocate. I don’t disagree that these companies are unlikely to go under but with a rising market (and subsequent bumper profits) it’s possible that some dealers may have spent a bit too much on posh premises, fuelled by hubris (seen some of that on RU-vid) and too much expensive stock. So 2023/2024 could be tougher as recession starts to bite and more money is rerouted to higher interest costs for mortgage payments etc for the indebted or yielding assets for the cash rich.
Al very true, I think we can expect less investment for growth, smaller inventory sizes for the next set of accounts and more credit to free up liquidity to cover any losses.
I really enjoy your content and I feel you are uniquely transparent for most youtube watch dealers. Having said that I think most watch market skeptics base their opinions on the current market dynamic ( post spring 2022) and the sharp drop in prices since then and thus 2020-2021 comparisons don’t really reflect the current watch market reality. I do have a question. So many watches that were high flying now seem to be stuck in the manufacturer’s suggested retail price plus what sales tax would cost but on the secondary market. Is this representative of true market forces or proof of price fixing/collusion by grey market dealers from back room agreements in private dealer chat groups? Just ignore if too controversial to comment on. Thx for the info and content.
