Harry Potter Theory: The Truth About Felix Felicis 

After the battle under the astronomy tower, someone tells Harry (I feel like it was Ginny, but I'm not sure) "Every spell seemed to just miss us," which leads me to another theory....... The Death Eaters are actually Stormtroopers.

Dangerous recklessness and extreme overconfidence? Sounds like Gilderoy Lockhart was taking too much his whole life.

waizarding world: Felix Felicis Muggle world: Vodka

When your teacher promises to give you alcohol but just gives you water instead but you never had alcohol before and you think you're drunk.

I thought luck was literally an ingredient. Like how the laughing potion needs you to laugh at it during brewing. This explains why the brewing process takes so long and is so precise, you genuinely have to get lucky to make it. Snape is notoriously unlucky so would never be lucky enough to make it. This also fits with Snape's monologue from the Philosopher's Stone: 'I can teach you how to bottle fame, brew glory, even stopper death'. It's possible that this isn't just flowery language but literally a description of high end potions using concepts as ingredients.

Fun fact: harry was dropped in this stuff when he was a baby

Felix Felicis makes the students in your potions class work harder.

Here's a theory for you: a young and still-learning Snape once tried to brew Felix Felicis. It proved to be beyond the abilities of the talented but still learning 3rd or 4th year Hogwarts student. I say 3rd or 4th year because at that point he would have had time to realize his talent and get confident in his abilities but would not yet have learned enough to brew the most difficult potions or understand his limitations. And he got it horribly wrong, leading to a life filled with horrible luck.

Just use Felix Felicis to brew Felix Felicis.

I'm not convinced, because in the books it's stated that while under the effect of Felix Felicis, Harry seemed to just KNOW small things to do that would lead to the ideal outcome. I'm betting less on a Placebo effect (which was what happened to Ron) and more of an artificial boost to a wizard or witch's Divination ability. We know it's a really inexact magical discipline, and it seems to just work for magic folk who have a natural affinity for it, and even then it doesn't work exactly when they want it to. Hence Prof. Trelawney. What I think Felix Felicis does is amplifying a wizard's sensitivity to possibilities of the future. You know what small actions will have what changes in the future, even if you can't fully process or see it all clearly. In addition to that, maybe the potion gives you an autonomous mental guide, which sifts through this myriad of future possibilities and finds the shortest path to your goal, giving you "hunches" of what to do to make sure that future comes to pass. How else would Harry know that somehow visiting Hagrid would lead him to getting the info he wanted out of Slughorn? Of course, this doesn't mean it's an all-powerful potion, because for one, you can't see all these future possibilities clearly, you're just told in your subconscious that doing this seemingly unrelated thing will help. Secondly, the potion would never be able to let you do something objectively impossible. It might end up either not working for you at all if your goal is completely out of your reach, or just veer you into a route that leads you to realize the futility of your endeavor in a less painful manner. And then comes the fact that if you ingest it too much, you'll have some wonky and permanent side-effects, which one would expect from having their "future sensitivity" fully open so often. It would mess up with your mind horribly, so definitely choose the times to use it carefully. Just my theory, though. Whatcha think?

Snape does says this in the first book: “I can teach you how to bewitch the mind and ensnare the senses. I can tell you how to bottle fame, brew glory, and even put a stopper in death.” -J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone It makes me think it is actually liquid luck...

I really think Snape doesn't get enough credit for how great of a wizard he is. Imagine how skilled of a Occlumens one must be to deceive Voldemort on every occassion they meet. When Lucius Malfoy lies to him about how glad the family is to have Voldi as a guest in their house, he immediately recognizes the lie (which could also be because he just knows but I'm sure Voldemort is just as skilled an Legilimens to perform the technique at any given time because in his situation he just needs to know whether or not his followers are honest about their loyalty). Furthermore, Snape recognizes when Draco uses Occlumency against him but it seems Snape can do it without the Dark Lord recognising. Because when Voldemort recognizes Snape to use Occlumency against him, wouldn't he find a way around it to find the truth, like Imperius, Truth potion or sth else?

Snape probably did use it though, on the day he died. Voldemort still thought of him as a good servant, so why would he subject Snape to a painful snake bite death instead of killing him instantly? Why didn't he have the snake then eat him? Why would Harry remove the cloak? Snape got very lucky that he was able to give Harry his memories. And at that point he had nothing to live for, and probably wanted death so that's why the potion didn't save him.

Slughorn might have kept some liquid luck with him. Being chased by death eaters and constantly escaping is no easy task.

Overconfidence and dangerous recklessness? Basically gryffindor in a bottle.

I still think Harry just deciding to go to Hagrid's and happening to run into Slughorn as he was stealing leaves, rather than where he was supposed to be, was a stretch to just be a placebo. That part was definitely some luck.

In response to Snape's bad luck, we are told that if brewed improperly, the effects can prove disastrous. So what if a potions student who is constantly improving recipes decides to mess around with the luck potion, confident he knows better than the one who made the original recipe,and it goes horribly wrong? So wrong in fact that his luck was changed forever for the worst?

"I'm addicted to placebos. I could quit, but it wouldn't matter." --Steven Wright

You know what bothers me the most about The Half Blood Prince? Everyone who is using the official text book basically fails, except for Harry who is using Snape's book, from when Snape was a teenager. This means that a Teenage Snape was better at potions than the writer of the text book. Isn't that a bit odd? Like, why on earth would they keep using the same book after Snape becomes a potion teacher? Why wouldn't he be like." Oh no these instructions are rubbish. Do exactly as I say." or write his own version? Boggles the mind.

You cant ignore how the book explains it though Harry was hearing and following a voice different from his own that guided him in the absolute right directions that night So on top of giving you a mood boost it tells you the most logical and correct actions to take

I always assumed that Slughorn hadn't actually just finished brewing the Felix Felicis when the kids walked in. I figured he just took some he already had in stock, threw it in a caldron and heated it up. While I do think the placebo effect could have something to do with it, there's also the fact that wizards can do unintentional magic that comes at opportune times. Neville bounced when he was dropped out a window. Harry ended up jumping on the roof when Dudley was after him. Maybe Felix Felicis doesn't affect probability (grant luck) so much as allow the wizard's own innate unconscious magic to work more powerfully and more frequently.

My reasoning as to how Slughorn had some on him: He was trying to avoid Death Eaters before Dumbledore stepped in. The Liquid Luck was in case he was found and needed something to escape and evade the Death Eaters. After Dumbledore reinstated him as Potions Master, he had no further use (since he was in the safest place in Britain) for it and figured he'd offer it as a reward. This is assuming, of course, that Felix Felicis is an actual potion and not a placebo.

*“Makes you feel positive, lowers your inhibitions and just gives you more confidence”* So it’s alcohol, Felix Felicis is just alcohol. It just gives you liquid courage.

Slughorn is a potions master that has stocks of everything he needs. He probably started brewing the potion when the death eaters started looking for him. He probably thought he would need it soon. Also, Slughorn was a potions master who took pride in how good he was. I do not believe that he would waste his time making a potion that doesn't actually do anything. We need to remember that magic isn't an item; it is more of like a "Being" who is all knowing, but doesn't, or can't, control how things should go. Liquid Luck is almost like a potion that lets magic control the situation. It takes what the drinker wants most and makes it happen. Harry needed the memory, but had no idea how to make it happen. Magic knew and when Harry drank the potion, Magic took control of the situation. Harry mentioned many times that "felix" was urging him to do things and even made it so he could perform spells that he couldn't do before. Also, when magic took control after Harry's friends took the rest of the potion, it made it so the death eaters spells could not hit them. Because that it was they wanted most. And that was their "Luck."

i bet snape tried to make liquid luck, but failed and cursed his whole life

"Are you sure they're not drinking tequila?" Lmao 😂😂

So, it's not so much liquid luck as it is liquid confidence. So it's alcohol.

You could also argue that it's a literally magical version of the placebo effect. The drinker may be preforming accidental magic to alter their situation without even realizing it, that could be what the potion does.

If only I had liquid luck to help with finals and AP tests!!

I think we underestimate how difficult most of the advanced magic that we see performed in the books is to most of the magical population. That could account for why people don't often make this potion, if ever. I think slughorn probably had liquid luck on hand in the event he needed to escape from the death eaters who were looking for him. But then he came to Hogwarts and realized he no longer needed it and so he gives it as a prize. As far as why Snape never used this potion, it's very possible that he did. The fact that he was able to surrender himself to Dumbledore and not get ANY punishment from the ministry of magic is astounding, particularly when we see that the ministry is quick to turn on people to gain positive press and appear like they're "doing something." Also, this is a world where children possess the power to perform magical spells, so I don't think a potion that gives you good luck is far fetched at all.

Conclusion: Felix Felicis is just straight up alcohol

I have two problems with this theory: On the one hand when Harry takes Felix most things can be explained with regular luck and confidence but not the fact that Filch forgot to close the main gate. Filch is the one character who would never forget something that important. On the other hand you said that Snape would not be a believer in the effects of the potion. The problem is that they read his textbook about this specific potion and there is no mention of him writing something about it being useless. When it comes to antivenoms for example he straight up crosses things out and says to just use a bezoar. I would imagine him to cross out the whole recipe for Felix and write 'does not work, don't bother. Made me said when I tried to ask Lily out while using it.'

We can easly explain WHY Snape didn't use Felix Felicis. Just think about Tom Riddle Jr. and his mother - the witch who used Love Potion to make Tom Riddle Sr. love her. What did that do? Gave born to the greatest dark wizard in those times. If Snape used Felix Felicis to make Lilly love him, it could have really bad concequences - maybe even the death of James? This is bad, not like Ginny breaking up with her ex-boyfriend to make it with Harry. There were many times said that if you use magic to only get good stuff from that, while you are harming people, it's gonna bounce back on you - mostly works with overusing black magic, but still...

Hey brother! I think you missed a trick by not talking about how Snape clearly made this potion. His textbook shows that he must have attempted it many times in order to allow him to refine the method. This would have fitted well into how a young Snape would have desired liquid luck so much that he would try and make it, and then re-try with his potions expertise helping it work better! Also if there was one time in Snapes life when he would ever have wanted luck it would have been when he was so desperate that he went to ask Dumbledore for help. If he had any way of using liquid luck he most definitely would have the night Lilly Potter died. This could be why he no longer believes in Felix, because it failed him when he needed luck the most.

It's vodka mate

11:08 But harry does take a detour while going to Hagrid's where he finds slughorn.....he was getting some leaves(can't remember which) for his potion classes and harry had no idea he would be there. Sooo Felix did do something Also harry bumbs into Ginny at the potriate hole...which causes her to break up with Dean... Which he did not do intentionally and wanted for a long time Coincidence??I think not

@SuperCarlinBrothers I think the explanation for the luck that Ron, Hermione, and Ginny have in their battle against the death eaters under the tower can be found by looking at the seemingly ineffective ingredients of the potion. The 'burlap tentacles' in particular are said to improve one's difference against spells. To me, this is exactly the effect of the potion seen in that battle.

I think this theory is very good, but it is just partially right, the placebo effect is part of it but not everything, the long time to prepare and the rare ingredients must not be just to make the person beleive it is important, besides also doing that. I beleive that it might actually mix hormones or chemicals in the body to make the person actually more confident and energetic, like taking cocaine, and as I would guess magic has biological parts to it so it would boost that, for exemple you get to talk to snakes if you got the right genes, so something like adrenaline rush could happen just magic wise. So a "Magical Adrenaline" that makes all your spells more potent and your magic senses more acurate would make sense, wich could be explained as intuition or just normal senses like smell or hearing, wich made Harry feel Hagrid needed him for Aragog's death. So why would Snape not use it? With his deep understanding and pride he would realise that all that you get from the potion can be achieved without it, and fear of addiction, same as people in the real world choose not to use drugs.

I was watching this video and suddenly realized that Felix Felicis is called liqiud luck, not liquid good luck so it could actually be a 50/50 chance on being good or bad luck so that might be why Snape seemed to have bad luck

i think that the reason snape doesn's use it is because he is constantly blocking out voldemorts mind invading/reading magic. perhaps felix felicis lets that guard down and then voldemort would know of snape's double agent thingy.

"It makes you feel more positive, lowers your inhibitions and just gives you more confidence." - Felix Felicis is alcohol.

A magical object in HP that could literally fix all of the conflicts in the series. Why does that sound familiar? *cough* Time Turner *cough*

I believe instead of liquid luck I think it should be called liquid CONFIDENCE

Slughorn is a collector of rare ingredients, that may also include potions of a rare variety. And the potion’s effect on Harry debunks the Placebo theory.

So what do you think.. does Felix Felicis do anything?

"How is he doing this if he's constantly moving around and on the run?" You think the former potions master for the most prestigious school of witchcraft and wizardry in the world doesn't have a portable potions laboratory? Newt's trunk has shown us that something of the like would easily be within possibility. Not sure why he didn't just use it as his hideout, but as he himself says often, he does love his comforts.

Felix Felicis "makes you feel positive, lowers your inhibitions, and just gives you more confidence. But most importantly, it lets you believe that you are lucky. And then you just act accordingly." Soooo.... he's right, they're just brewing alcohol of some sort (he suggested tequila I think).

Makes u wonder who discovers these potions and the science behind discovering them., especially if it takes 6.months

This theory really reminds me of the Fountain of Fair Fortune, In which there are three misfortuned witch sisters and a very unlucky knight who venture to bathe in the fountain. One sister is poor, one is weak and sick, and the other is heartbroken. After passing through trials, they make it. The sick sister collapses and the poor sister gathers herbs to make an antidote and cures her sister. She realized she can get rich off of this miricle cure and decides not to bathe in the fountain. The heartbroken sister decides not to bathe in the fountain because she realizes that she is in love with the knight. The knight bathes in the fountain and gains newfound bravery. They all live long and happy lives, the end. And at the end of the story, it is revealed to us by the narrator that the fountain's waters do nothing, and were incredibly ordinary. The original creator of the potion was probably inspired to replicate the fountain's water, but they alone knew it was a placebo and told no one else the secret.

5:50 "Are we sure they're not just making Tequila?" ahaahahaha, love it. XD.

This makes sense, Harry's reaction from taking the felix felicis or "liquid luck" is very simular to when he was confident in the prisoner of azkaban when he is flying bukbeek with Hermione after he realised it was him who made the pertronus! (Sorry for the bad spelling)

Slughorn tells why dont they take it all the time "Why don't people drink it all the time, sir?" said Terry Boot eagerly. "Because if taken in excess, it causes giddiness, recklessness, and dangerous overconfidence," said Slughorn. "Too much of a good thing, you know. . . highly toxic in large quantities. But taken sparingly, and very occasionally . . ."

The answer to every Harry Potter theory question: Because magic.

If you think about it, you make a potion in a cauldron like they do in Potions class, but that doesn't mean it only makes one small glass bottle? I'm sure you could fill up 10, 20, maybe even more so Slughorn having the potion on the first day of class, doesn't mean it's fake. It just means that he probably had an abundance of small glass bottles filled with the potion which would last you awhile. I swear it's not magic, it's just common sense lol

So... What would happen if somebody drank Felix Filicius (or however you spell it) out of a cup, and you thought it was pumpkin juice? What would happen??

Felix Felicis is like a “phantom curse”. The thought of a curse or ghost makes everything you see or hear prof of the curse or ghost. It’s also like when you learn a new word and you start to hear it everywhere. It’s because you notice certain things more.

Slughorn could have had the liquid luck previously brewed for an emergency

Hogwarts might have a stock of Felix Felicis, so Slughorn might have gotten it from there. Also, Harry can refill the drink Hagrid and Slughorn are having non verbally, and the book says he couldn't have done so otherwise.

Just a question, did you ever take into consideration that Slughorn just had a bottle at the ready because he was on the run from Death Eaters, and would need it in an emergency, just like you said Snape should've done?

9:30 Well he could've made it many years ago and just kept a bottle of it (or even more) just for special events!

Can Snape please just teach my science class

I like to think that Felix Felicis is two-fold, first there is the confidence booster part where it let's your subconscious fill you with "I can do anything!" which in part could explain why Harry went to Hagrid's. He knew he had to get the memory from Slughorn BUT he also needed to help out his oldest friend in his time of need. The second part of Felix is where it subtly affects things around the user, for instance making it where every curse or hex aimed at you misses, I think that part is intentional to move things around the user to best benefit them under the circumstances BUT the user then has to act upon those opportunities for it to work.

7:21 he-he *thyme* consuming

I’ve always had the same issue with Time Turners. Would come in handy for basically everyone wouldn’t it.

i think felix felicis may be a metaphor for alcohol, a little bit gives you confidence, too much makes you reckless, also in the movie harry was acting drunk, what do you guys think?

Well, that thing where Ginny, Luna, Neville, Hermione, and Ron Ginny explains that "everything just seemed to miss us." but maybe the Death Eaters are just really bad at aiming, I dunno.

Futurama did this in "40% Iron Chef", with Bender getting the essence of pure flavor only to find out it was just water... Well, laced with very small amounts of LSD, but then again Felix Felicis is basically just tequila.

You sir, are thinking like a muggle.

It’s just magic people drugs

It is just like when Harry "gives it" to Ron, It may just be all in his head, kinda like psychological sickness or belief in things that aren't true.

So when Harry faked giving the luck potion to Ron, he is actually uh...fake giving the fake potion to the..uh....I am confused.

You debunked your own reasoning. Slughorn is exactly the kind of person who would always have some ready in case of emergency. Also Harrys confidence tends to be what makes him bad at diplomacy cool theory though.

Don't you think wizards like Dumbledore (who of curse wouldn't fall for the placebo effect) would have made it commun knowledge that it didn't work by now? You may think that he just wants people to take it and have a good day, and a boost of confidence. But think about all the people who could seriously hurt themselves and die doing reckless things. Why would powerfull wizards that know it doesn't work, hold this information to themselves, I kinda feel like this is some crazy conspiracy theory.

I do have one thing to point out. In the video, you stated that it was odd for Slughorn to have a bottle of Felix Felicis at Hogwarts because of the 6 month brewing period and the fact that he was on the run from the death eaters. What if the fact that he was running from the death eaters is why he had the Felix Felicis in the first place? Surely, if you are running from Voldemort's forces you'd want to have some extraordinary luck on hand in case you're caught. Other than that, I thought the video was really good, thumbs up from me!

I love the Super Carlin Brothers 😊

Watched this again and I just now caught that side comment, "Are we sure they're not just making tequila?" OMG, I'm dying laughing!!!! :D Good one, J

It's also worth mentioning that Felix felicis actually creates a voice in Harry's head in the book, which can't really be explained by the placebo effect since Harry doesn't know about the voice aspect of the potion before he takes it. Joe probably overlooks that point since it isn't really conveyed in the movie version

This is clearly wrong. In the books and in the movie, the Felix Felicis potion has two clear effects on the imbiber. The first effect is to enhance their sensitivity to Intuition. You know, the small quite voice in your head that tells you what you should be doing, which you promptly ignore. We see this in Harry’s sudden desire (intuition) to go to Hagrid’s. The other effect is to lower the imbiber’s inhibitions. The books and movie clearly reveal this in Harry’s near drunken behavior. By lowering a person’s inhibitions, the potion makes it more likely that the imbiber will follow their newly enhanced intuition without question. Remember the warnings always come after the spells. Here’s why people don’t use this potion all the time. The potion doesn’t actually have to do with luck, but it allows the drinker to use their intuition more fully. The intuition doesn’t lead one to what they want, but rather it leads to what one actually needs. A rich man who takes this potion to gain more riches may find in the end that his money has evaporated, because what he really needed was to experience poverty so he would learn to enjoy what he had. You can find a good example of this principle in action in Larry Niven’s novel Ring World. Additionally, if someone has no clear goal in mind when imbibing the potion, then they will accomplish no clear goal.

Liquid Luck aka Felix Felicis honestly sounds like an Amber Lager. The fermentation time is usually around 6 months for full fermentation. Also they have similar side effects as both cause reckless choices and over confidence with over usage(similar to a drunk state) similarly the placebo effect also works as many people who drank carbonated water with slight food coloring that was put into a wine bottle thought they were drinking wine and would say they felt the "effects" We might also see snape not drink this because he knows it's alcohol. This also fits the snape not using it because we don't see Snape drink any form of alcohol for pleasure or willingly with joy. The ingredients also match up with horse radish being used in many ales and lagers. Many Amber Lagers also look like some of the liquid luck we see in the movies. So there you have it, my theory is that liquid luck is actually an Amber Lager. I hope you guys take time to think if this is a good theory and if you guys liked it please let me know!

Harry explained in the book that he had a voice in his head like an omniscient being

But Snape's actions were the cause of most of the bad things in his life, he lost Lily to James because he got involved in dark arts and lost her trust. He then choose to join Dumbledore's side which lead him having to look over Harry and kill Dumbledore. Every one of the things you mentioned had to do with his actions and choices and nothing to do with luck.

even if it is somewhat a placibo effect Felix Felicis does something. I mean, what are the odds that you run into exactly the person your looking for and said person is in a good enough mood and drunk enough to give you something that they had closely guarded for years and made decoys so it would never be found and that someone who attempted to murder you and your best friend 4 years ago just happens to have died. you have to admit, that if you consider all that I have said, this video may need to be revised.

What if Slughorn is just constantly brewing the potion to use in order to stay lucky enough to stay away from the Death Eaters. Yes he said he's only taken it twice, but that wouldn't be the only time he's lied in the book. Unless those two days were days where the Death Eaters missed catching him. That would be pretty perfect for me. As for Snape, I agree that he just doesn't keep any simply bc he wants to be where he is based on his own abilities regardless of where it puts him in life.

personally i think it magically enhances a persons natural intuition. if you look at the times that the potion is used in the books its like the people who are under its influence are just more aware of their surroundings and able to react a little better without really being consciously aware why. And when it came to Ron's placebo potion, he was clearly always capable of performing at that level as Harry had seen, but lacked the self confidence.

At the very beginning when you mentioned it might not do anything at all I knew you would bring up the placebo effect. Though it can't be that due to how it works. Harry had no idea what was going on and little "felix" was telling him where to go. Even with overconfidence he had no reason to go to Hagrid's

what if the felix felicis slughorn uses IS snapes reserve and he wasn't supposed to use it.

Ok, that's it. I've had it. This is the camel-back-breaking straw. Even if the original creators (like Rowling in this case) flat out deny your theories, you guys constantly make fascinating connections in these stories and explanations that are much more interesting than even the creator's sometimes. Seriously, writers everywhere need to hire you guys to theory-check their works before release, so that they can just blow everyone's minds with genius plot-hole-filled stories.

I think of Felix Felicis as a brain stimulant. When Ron thought he had it, there were a lot of lucky things for the Gryffindors, and unlucky for the Slytherins, but no where does it say that Felix causes bad luck for someone else, and anyway, Ron hadn’t taken it. When Harry took it, the only really “lucky” thing that happened to him was that Filch left the door unlocked, but we know that Filch is a pretty forgetful guy. Slughorn was picking those leaves for third years, and if Felix was a brain stimulant, Harry would have known about those leaves from his third year potions and herbology, so would have known that Slughorn probably needed them within a day or two, and would pick them at twilight. The rest of the scene falls into place after that.

Interesting idea, however in fiction "Probability Manipulation" is considered a superpower, or a property that an object can have. Maybe the effect of Felix Felicis is just that, manipulation of probabilities in favor of the user.

Was it a coincidence that the slitherin kid got sick that very day of that quittich match?

Harry acts hilarious 😂 on Felix felicis

So would the occamy shells be coloured silver or actual silver. If it is actual silver I think we'd be able to tell if someone is drinking it because here is the funny thing about silver; drink enough of the stuff and it will turn you blue. I'm not kidding you can look it up.

Nah... I dont think this is very likely. You left out some points. For instance when the Hermione, Ron, Ginny, Luna and Neville take it while the Death Eaters invade Hogwarts in the 6th book, Hermione tells Harry that every curse seemed to miss them. Or when Harry takes the potion he accidentally causes the event which brings Ginny and Dean to break up (what Harry wished for for months) and he can sneak out of the castle because Filch forgot to lock the gate. All of these could be coincidences but I cant believe you would seriously think that. I mean such things dont happen because you have a boosted confidence. This IS luck. Also the explanation why Harry knows he has to visit Hagrid is like super senseless??? I mean yes, it is out of character for Harry to not help him, but you know what also is out of character? Fcking not trying to get this memory which will help him defeat Voldemort and survive! So I m not convinced. But still the question why Snape didnt use Felix Felicis is very strange...? But there gotta be a better explanation...

Snape is an insanely hardworker but he also is very talented as well.

Thank you for the recipe I have all that in my pantry

Ron thought he was on it for one quidditch try out, Harry was under the influence for the whole day. The potion doesn’t give you a anti depressant feeling, it takes you to ‘ the right place at the right time’ situations in order to bring you a ‘perfect’ day. If anything it derives off inner instinct and possibly a little bit of clairvoyance/future sight type magic

I also thought about Liquid Luck as placebo. If I were a potions master, I would take Felix twice a year and not only twice. I'm struggling with hermiones detailed evening plan though, the boys always did what hermiones said. I guess it do have some magic in it bringing harry to the right place at the right time. The door was unlock could be a coincidence and dean and ginny breaking up was meant to happen sooner or later.

But remember, "IT'S JUST A THEORY"- MAT PAT (sorry if I spelled it wrong)

I don't think Felix Felicis can do anything that could never conceivably happen in your reality, it can only give you the best reality. Let's say there is a school race you're not the fastest but after taking the potion the fastest one at school twists their ankle in the race allowing you to win. It was never a possible reality for you to be able actually beat the fastest person. If snape took the potion the best outcome for him would have been to have grazed his love interests boob without being caught. It was never in his future to win the girl.

Didn't Slughorn also use it in the final battle? Maybe just to give himself more confidence but that guy seemed to always have some on him.