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The first hand against Mariano, Dan’s line was actually more consistent with a draw when you take everything into consideration. UTG/straddle 3 bet pre looks pretty strong, so that particular flop wasn’t going to interact with Dan’s range very well. Overpairs are downgraded on that particular flop to barely being considered value hands. Despite this, Dan cbets OOP with a larger sizing of over half pot. He’s only really repping flopped sets and straights, overpairs, AK suited or AQ suited with a backdoor flush draw, or his junkiest draws with random suited rags or suited A6 or A7 combos with backdoor flush draws on the flop that he decided to mess around with preflop given what his range is going to look like when you consider his line, position and board texture on the flop. When the A hits the turn completing half the backdoor heart draw, the only value hands he’s realistically repping with the x/r are sets and flopped straights. Overpairs are most likely an x/c or x/f on the turn. Ax 1 pair combos are most likely an x/c on the turn. With this said, the amount of draws/semi bluff combos in Dan’s range are going to far outweigh the number of nutted combos/value hands in his range when he x/r the turn. If Mariano studies solvers, he should know this. A solver likes a big 3 bet from Mariano on the turn as played. Solvers say Mariano will over realize his equity against 1 pair Ax combos that have his A2 crushed here with a big 3 bet, while also over realizing his equity against the potential big draws in Dan’s range with only the river left to come. The rare times Dan will be nutted on the turn in this spot, Dan will 4 bet targeting strong second best made hands which he has coolered for max value and protection against big draws and it becomes an easy fold for Mariano.
Forgot to mention that A5 suited, A8 suited and A9 suited combos for Dan would’ve blasted again on the turn with aces up targeting 1 pair Ax combos and big draws for value and protection rather than setting up an x/r and run the risk of giving a free river opportunity for Mariano to suck out.
It's always amusing when guys want to stroke themselves while posting their poker thoughts while completely getting someone's range wrong. Keep playing with those solvers though it's cute.
you can make that play once in a while, the board is super connected with flush draw and potential straight so either way its really good. based on mariano turn bet its unlikely he has flush draw.
I dont like the fold by mariano, if dan had AQ/AK he's likely to just bet the turn himself or check call it, seems like mariano is scared to get into big big pot