As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, war historian and University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans paints what a potential end to the war could look like. #CNN #News
@@ruslankbr5243 Why state the obvious? But the stupid thing is, that if Russia wanted to stop Ukraine from joining NATO because it would come to close to their borders, then they are failing. Finland and Sweden have since then applied for membership. Even if Sweden is not allowed, Finland will. Thus making the border way longer and Finland have a massive army to defend against the Russians. Nukes are not important. Why? If one goes off we will all die. Some will die fast and they will be the lucky ones, some will survive and die slowly because of radiation, disease, lack of food, lack of water, plunder and killings
@@smek22071975 I think Biden or Macron stated that they will not use nukes if Russia will use it in Ukraine. And you quite don’t understand Ukraine importance for Russia this is not Finland or Sweden. Ukraine consists of territories which were part of Russia and there are as many Russians as Ukrainians in those regions, using these territories as a base for NATO is absolutely does not suit Russian interests. You know that USA stated in 2008 that Ukraine WILL BE member of NATO, how do you think where should Russian naval Sevastopol base should be removed in case of Ukraine NATO membership? That is why Russia annexed Crimea.
Why the interview ended so quickly? This guy is the man to make a whole segment with. Very knowledgeable. Someone i would love to sit and talk about this war issue.
Yes, he did not come to the scenario where the citizens come to the conclusion that they are betrayed by NATO, EU, UK, Kolomoisky and Zelenski. That Zelensky promised to make an end to coruption and the troubles in the Donbas, and did neither. That the Minsk 2 accords were much better than this war. That the two "revolutions", the "Orange" one and the "Dignity" one, - sponsord by CIA and US oligarchs, - were done by bad loosers in Presidential elections. That they are much better of by letting tthe pro-Russion parts become independent and stay neutral.
This man either knows nothing at all or he is paid to propagandize and lie to you. You know that, right? He could not have been more wrong. I don’t think he’s ignorant; just a liar.
Bring this man back please. Just give us 20 minutes of him talking about this war and his ideas about it because he really seems like he knows what hes talking about
It's crazy how well the Manufacture of Consent still holds true. Chomsky and Herman said it 4 decades ago. The gues started laying out how Russia can not surrender, but it takes too long to explain the implications of this so before that can sink in let's go to a commercial break!
@@lg8587 right, have you seen Michael Smerconish "interview" Roger Waters? i do not agree with Walters on everything, but that amount of condescending was unwatchable
Why? WHAT EVIDENCE do you have that THIS particular historian has ANY more predictive capabilities than ANY OTHER historian on the planet? There's nothing wrong with the guy, or even giving his informed best decision. But the way UNCRITICAL IDIOTS take his PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE about NONDETERMINSTIC EVENTS - what humans will choose to do - as "absolute gospel" destroys your and his credibility.
You must be joking here ! This man is an "Ass Hat" he knows nothing about the History of War. How did the western powers stop Imperial Japan in WW2 ? Not by negotiation that's for sure. You stop fanatics who refuse to surrender one way my friend.. Hiroshima. Nagasaki. Next, will have to be Moscow.
How do you know that he knows what`s happening? Please give arguments. What certain part of the interview gave you this certainty? I`m very interested. All folks around here seem interested and give him credits for being phenomenal...only war experts around here, or maybe they like BS? Most probably the latter.
he is an expert...: )...reason he was interviewed... this is a different angle that is most certainly more accurate and precise due to his academic knowledge
@@tubebreguet Academics in this case is based on history that is knowledge he acquired through a degree and years of research to develop an expertise gaining the knowledge...... this is a known fact and very distinct Aaa Bbb... just differentiate and learn what I am telling you... the reason he drew the possible outcomes......same for GeorgwV.....it is not about arguments or proof ...this is no different from the financial institutions they have a risk asset department they use math to predict an outcome on finances to make the money..... in this case... to have the ability to give the outcomes based on knowledge .. ...like in Linear algebra and graphs....you take progression of numbers to predict the possible outcome to a certain degree of probability.... in this case based on the knowledge he acquire though his degree, he outlines possible scenarios ... this is a common practice in most professions that rehire a certain level of expertise.... and that knowledge....read the rise and the fall of powers....the book correlates thru the last 200 years+ what took empires to fall down based on common patterns and their policies, spending, systems...etc...... This professor is the best feedback there is so far in the media non biased and based on the facts.....no different from historian...in this case knowledge = based on past history, he draws possible outcome .....I hope this helps you and GeorgeV
I have studied History and economics for 40 years . I greatly appreciate your guest and his summary of what war is. It was short factual non-political and more important accurate. I don't comment on CNN much but you should have this guest back, he is worth the time to listen to.
Why such silence about Putin’s nuclear Arsenal updating, NATO evil plans and Armageddon? i live in the capital of the Federation and iam HONESLTY afraid i do not have a bunker, and iam afraid it can affect the planet iam shocked i think I’ll never feel the same until today after i saw the video ‘NATO and Russia nuclear war’ don’t say all of this is Not Real My heart is broken, but.... I WON’T DIE
@@luly2323 He said "very few wars end in total defeat...." See that? "Very few wars...." He never said that no wars end in total defeat! Work on your reading skills.
I suggest calling to memory and using brains those who have both. The US created and supported Al-Qaeda, “freedom fighters” who fought soviets in Afghanistan in 1980s. The result was September 11 attack when Al-Qaeda destroyed Twin Tower skyscrapers and 3000 Americans in them. Then the US government supported “freedom fighters” in Chechnya. The result was Boston Marathon bombing. Now the government supports Ukraine’s regime “fighting for freedom and democracy against “Russian aggression”. “Freedom fighters” again? There is nothing to do with democracy in Ukraine. That’s nazi terrorist regime. Generations of politicians in Washington DC come and go, but they still have not learned a simple lesson. Terrorists must not be supported regardless how profitable it cold look in regard to your struggle with a geopolitical opponent. Those who assumed to be useful idiots are not so stupid and sooner or later Ukrainian terrorists will come after Americans. A smart man learns from his own mistakes, but a wise one from mistakes of others. Only a fool is not able to learn from own mistakes. So sad!
This is the kind of guy I prefer to listen to for over an hour rather than four minutes. I know that’s not realistic on CNN, but even in a short period of time, the professor made a very sound case.
He made a case for what? He says it’s going on for years and will end in negotiated settlement but problem is Russia isn’t credible, Russia could go after Moldova, or Putin’s death if he loses?
"We're still here ... We are not going anywhere." ~ Native Americans 😔 Native Americans: Our Native American population in our motherland, the Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while the European population in their motherland, the Continent of Europe was around 25 millions. Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLIONS'! A shocking sad truth. 😔 Prof Goemans: It's about time to decolonize the Colonized lands, and return it to rightful owners Native American people. Notorious global cardinal crimes the West has committed, and benefited a great deals, such as Slavery & Colonialism had long been over, why on earth is notorious Colonization still lingering on? 😔 Native Americans: We're still here. We are not going anywhere. 😔
@@doubtingthomas9612 Your post is NONSENSE. Those deaths of natives Americans were 99% from disease. LOTS of Europeans died from disease transmitted by native Americans to Europeans and visa versa. Do you blame Asians for way more transmitted disease deaths? We already know from ancient that second waves of new native Americans who came to Americas 12,000 years ago decimated populations that came 18,000 years ago
Well he does, but I think he had to say some things in order to get on CNN, which tend to obscure the situation. First of all, while NATO cannot trust Russia, it is clear Russia cannot trust NATO either. It is obvious that the revolution or coup in 2014, changed NATO and Russia's thinking. And while excuses can be made, pretending that the overthrow made no difference, they are ridiculous. Agreements were broken on both sides. But most importantly, Russia fully expected Ukraine to vote pro-Russian. That was why the USSR put Crimea with Ukraine in 1954. To make it more Russian. It was essentially Soviet gerrymandering. Disavowing the large, and very probably majority Russian and pro-Russian people in the claimed territory of Ukraine is nonsense. The idea that Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine is risible; so is the idea that Putin will abandon over 10 million people that are Russian citizens and consider themselves Russian, with no desire to be at war with Russia at a minimum. There is at least one area (Crimea) where these people make up a sizeable majority. The real miscalculation in the war is with NATO. The politicians really thought that Russia was weak and that they could bully Russia into letting go of Ukraine entirely. This was a way of NATO using their vastly superior military to impose on Russia, without a direct war that might trigger a global or nuclear war. As it turns out, a combination of the inefficiency of a proxy war, and the unexpected strength of Russia's relatively low-tech army, has surprised NATO. NATO also somehow miscalculated the strategic and commercial importance of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to Russia, and failed to appreciate how much the Russian people would support Putin in retrieving it, once it stopped respecting democracy. Russia's miscalculation was the strength of Ukrainian nationalism and the feeling of ownership Ukraine has for the historically Russian territories. They feel that these areas were "given" to Ukraine as a nation and they have every right to kick the Russians out. However, he is correct. The only solution now is a negotiated settlement, and that has to start at a minimum with Crimea conceded to Russia. However, I fear that the USA and NATO need Russian war reparations in order to pay for the war, preferably paid in oil. I don't think there is any way NATO and the USA, can afford to stop the fighting, concede any territory to Russia, and still have the money to rebuild Ukraine and avoid a financial collapse. NATO has put itself in a position that they can't afford anything other than an unconditional surrender by the Russians, and that, as Goemans correctly IMO points out, is historically very unlikely.
Fast forward Feb 2024 - Russia has captured Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Other smaller towns being captured on weekly basis. - Western Aid is dwindling. - Internal friction between Zelensky and military commander. Maybe this war will end not very long.
@@kristiansandsmark2048Not to mention Russians are meat waving defensive positions, So deaths are much larger on Russias side.. It’s funny Russia said no negotiations weeks ago, and now when drones decimate Black Sea Oil infrastructure with massive 102 drone swarm Putina wants to negotiate 😂
@@henukabandara you must be a dumbass to think that the war will end quickly when it has already went on for two years and both ukrainan and russian defense position have been solidified during month and month
@@jeffsuter344 How so? The headline reads "Historian predicts how Russia's war in Ukraine might end?" He never told us that. Did I miss something? He told us several things which would never be acceptable to each side; all of which we knew, so what is his prediction? Enlighten me.
@@mwfmtnman My, my, my.... aren't we the bitter, hate filled little person all chock full of assumptions and insecurities? My you don't be sticking your toes into any swimming pools there Sunshine, lest they become vats of battery acid.
He said it's obvious to him that the war will keep going for a long time. Despite all the emotional news coverage, territorial trades were less than 0.1% over the last 2 years. Russia has steadily held 18%. No change since it went down from 24% in April 2022. At the same time the West is taking it's time to modernize the Ukrainian military, all the while time's running out for Russia. War economies that have the majority of the worlds GPD stacked against don't make it for very long. That's why the Defence Minister Shoigu was replaced by economist Belousov and Russia was forced to go on the offense again.
Clock's ticking. Nonetheless, I do hope Russia manages to pull through and hold on to or even expand it's territory slightly. I just don't see how it can be done at this pace. Russia needs to spend more on undermining support for Ukraine in the West, as well as undermining the power structures inside Ukraine. It's the only way in my opinion. Throwing poor kids from Siberia into the meat grinder just to advance a few kilometres here and there is wrong and doesn't help at all.
The problem with intellectuals is that they intellectualise. As far as his claim that wars don’t usually end in victory for one side and defeat for the other is about as wrong as you can be.
@@kylint7683 the most important thing, which he of course is not able to say is that this war was a long-term american deep government project. First step was to make ukrainians hate russians, raise new generation, who will be grown up in hate to russians, set pro-western government in Ukraine. Next step is to make instigate Putin to start war invasion through agents (treasoners, who still sit in russian government and sabotage to make sure Russia won't win ) and making threats of placing NATOs military bases in Ukraine, the main goal is redistribution of ecomonical sphere of influence , making money on killing people in Russia & Ukraine, the more and the longer the war will go on, the more benefits America will get
However, the professor failed to acknowledge the ageing European continent. The projected age of Ukraine in 2025 is 42.8 years. An ageing population is detrimental to war.
@@teenahweenah2608 The only end to war is the end of aggression...Russia is the aggressor state here. Age has no bearing on it....only the will to survive. Ukraine isn't interested in you bleeding hearts, that want to try and force your opinions on them, they are interested in a lasting peace only...for them and all around them for them to survive. For that to happen, then Russia must be broken up into smaller manageable independent states, rather than left as the Great Russian empire, the soviet Union or the Russian federation. The name changed regularly in History, to counter the historical memories, but the actions remained the same through each period.....mass destruction, war and complete obedience to the master race. Why are they like this, simply because they are built on the slav`s..... the slave people who have a burning desire to turn the table on the rest of the world. This is turning into a war to protect Ukraine and will grow to include the EU and or NATO as a means to protect the future for what you claim....an end to war. Heroyam Slava Ukraini!
Chicago song lyrics spring to mind: "As I was walking down the street one day A man came up to me and asked me What the time was that was on my watch, yeah And I said Does anybody really know what time it is (Care) Does anybody really care (About time) If so I can't imagine why (Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to cry And I was walking down the street one day A pretty lady looked at me and Said her diamond watch had stopped cold dead And I said Does anybody really know what time it is (Care) Does anybody really care (About time) If so I can't imagine why (Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to cry And I was walking down the street one day (People runnin' everywhere) Being pushed and shoved (don't know where to go) By people trying to beat the clock (I don't know where I am) Oh no, so I just don't know (I can't see past the next step) I don't know, I don't know-ow And I said Yes I said (I don't have time to. I don't have time to look around) (I just run around everywhere) (I don't) Does anybody really know what time it is (Care) Does anybody really care (About time) If so I can't imagine why (Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to die Everybody's worryin' (I don't care) I don't care (About time) About time (Oh no, no) I don't care"
... defending your values? ... you mean you want your nation to be the most CORRUPT nation in the galaxy instead of Ukraine? ... hmmmmm ... what a goal!!! ...
Very interesting, thanks CNN! ❤But please have a longer Interview with Prof Goemans (4 minutes is a bit short for such an important question). Praying for the people in Ukraine 🇺🇦
"But please have a longer Interview with Prof Goemans (4 minutes is a bit short for such an important question)" Did you get bumped on the head? 4 minutes is long enough considering the war started only a year ago. Also idk if its just me but it feels like people like you only support Ukraine because its trending (at the moment thanks to Biden). Let me mind you Ukrainian people are actually suffering, and it's not like the dead civilians can respawn after they die.
@@backup_almeknassi9824 Palestine is a another whole kettle of fish that is decades old. Thanks to the British after withdrawing from the area left a bloody mess. Also there is a religious clash which always heightens any conflict.
@@michaela4024 Just because how long its been going on doesn't mean it doesn't deserve attention. The commenter probably doesn't care about Ukraine anyway. Or any war. Just a measly reaction ngl.
Don't you love it when an interviewer interrupts the speaker just as he gets to the point where he is about to state how he thinks the war will end? So damn frustrating.
@patm6704because they’re fighting the Russians. The end my of my enemy is my friend ? Not everybody in Ukraine gets along but they’re all Ukrainians fighting against the same enemy.. does it not make sense to join forces ? Are you a thinking person…??? 🤨 such a simple answer.
@patm6704also because they started fighting the Russians in 2014.. do you really believe that nobody has the facts ? You’re either a Russian troll or an American Republican.
Really? As a Dutchman, I am glad that he is teaching in the USA. He really thinks that Putler has the possibility to liberate Moldova? How!? This professor discredited himself as far as I am concerned. Besides this, he didn't say anything new or interesting.
@@dougveganparadisebuilder5808 Did he say Putin has the ability to “liberate” Moldova? No, he said that Putin may _try_ to invade Moldova as a way to sell the war to Russians at home as a victory (and therefore “justify” the tremendous loss of life). If the professor is correct that Putin faces death if Russia loses, it’s rational and makes perfect sense that he’d consider all options to allow him to claim “victory”.
This is not a war, this is called special military operation AKA Russian Aggression. An example of war is two or more countries fighting each other by bringing their army into each other's land territory. Ukraine is not taking its army to Moscow or invade Moscow. WW II was a war because Germany brought their Army to other territories and fight England, France and others then US brought their Army to Germany and Japan, and Japan to Pearl Harbor. That's why it was called a "war". I called this a Land Grabbing through military force by invasion. Ukraine is simply defending a territory and is not declaring war against Russia. A boxing match is like a war because two opponents agreed on a fight. A burglary or rape is like an invasion. Consensual f*ucking is sex. Again, this is not a war.
In the past, these evil dictators didn’t have Life threatening weapons on standby, by the thousands. This guy could end civilization, or so they say. Really hope I’m wrong tho
@@isaacgloria9963 So, you are not among those invited to the underground bunkers, are you? Fifteen years and everything will be normal on the surface: clean air and water, normal atmosphere....and no other humans or dictators. AI robots will ensure all pockets of enemy resistance are eliminated, just like in the prophecies.
@@NewBeginnings413 maybe we shouldn't give up nuclear weapons in 1994 to don't make troubles for any other countries. I hope you aren't suffering so much after this great deal with pr. Clinton and russia.
@@minoramare5829 it was the Russians that made Ukraine give back “soviet nukes” to Russia when the soviet union collapsed and Ukraine claimed independence. Don't try to rewrite history.
@@minoramare5829 if you believe you would stand a chance without the west (training, military equipment, intelligence, money....) then stop begging and protect yourself alone. Write your president if you are that ignorant.
"...war provides information..." Such a straightforward statement (amongst others) from him. Realistic or deeply embedded regional security and sovereignty concerns appear to always have been a legitimate enough reason to go to war, sooner or later.
It's a fascinating thought, believing that Putin was terrified of Ukraine suddenly invading Russia. And worse, perhaps NATO nations like Canada sending their armed forces to join in the NATO support for that unprovoked attack. It's clear why Putin had such enormous regional security and sovereignty concerns faced with a threat to Russia like that. Same as in Georgia and Chechnya previously, apparently.
@@AirborneMOC031 The idea that Ukraine would invade Russia is preposterous. No, this is a war of choice driven by greed, misplaced pride and nostalgia for faded glory.
@@jasonlatour3403 it was engraved in the Ukrainian constitution that they would retake Crimean peninsula. So seeing Ukraine being armed and trained by NATO Putin made a decision to intervene before Ukraine gets stronger to attempt retaking the Crimea.
@@jasonlatour3403 You might want to try reading what I wrote again, before whining about what I wrote. I essentially posted what you're now repeating: the idea that Putin actually feared invasion from Ukraine with NATO nations like Canada sending their troops to fight a land war across Russia is indeed ridiculous. But... thanks for coming out.
Well, not wishing to support nor oppose the viewpoints expressed under this thread, all I can suggest is that most people love a good old scrap (often to the death or the bitter end), especially in so far as it pertains to ideas or belief regarding religion, race, territory, perceived identity, perceived justice or just plain old fear of missing out on something or somebody. Not a lot different to what we see on a day to day basis within so-called "civilized" societies really.
Where was BBC & other News outlets when Western Ukraine was bombing Eastern Ukraine citizens for 8 years since the CIA COUP in 2014? The pictures then of the Donbas area and other areas of Eastern Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 are little different from these from Western Ukraine bombing their own Russian Speaking citizens. Western Ukraine has lost their right to govern Eastern Ukraine. Seek Peace. Grant Independent Country Status to Eastern Ukraine States protected by Russia until they are fully established countries.
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld
Why do announcers always ask stupid questions and prevent us from hearing those people who actually have something to say (i.e. the interviewed experts).
Most announcers are either pretty faces, smart mouths, or a combination of the two. They aren't the smartest people out there and most of the time they do as they are told, which is "Get on with it. Next."
He has NO idea what he's talking about, does he? First, Russia did guarantee Ukraine security and Ukraine was secured. It was the West/NATO that broke the agreement, that started putting weapons right next to Russian borders and even then Putin warned them repeatedly to come to a negotiated settlement. London, Paris and Washington, as usual, mocked him. 2ndly, this historian says NATO is the only part that can guarantee Ukraine safety. Lol...no it can't. NATO is the ONLY reason why Ukraine has now been bombed and destroyed! It was the US and NATO that repeatedly lied and broke the agreement. And now Russia is winning the war. Ukraine is about to run out of money and it also has not many troops left after so many deaths. Ukraine has already lost. Watch how deceptively the liars of London, Paris, Washington and Zelensky now do a face-saving exercise and come to a negotiated agreement within the next few weeks (which is what Putin was asking for in the first place).
That assessment bombed alright. 14 months on and still no end in sight. The Professor was absolutely on the money. Only it's too serious to joke about.
You are the one with NO idea. Ukraine was secure😂. How? By invading and taking over Crimea? By creating problems on the Donbass area with "green people"? You do realize that Putin started the chaos in those areas by putting his own people to create a pretext for war. But yeah West is at fault. Clowns. Ukrainians chose west. Putin couldnt handle losing Ukrain to west by not having his puppet so he started a war to take over Ukraine by force. Simple as.
Russia's existential crisis is that of a dying empire. All empires, i.e. states built on the domination of an usually vast and culturally diverse territory by one single culture, where suppression of cultures other than the dominant one is state policy, are eventually dying out. Some decay slowly until they are relegated to the status of a national state, others, most, go down in flames - like Russia.
we have seen that Paranoia crisis in 1961. Exactly, when USA discovered a sovereign country called Cuba had a few Soviet nuclear gadgets on their proper country ! Mr NATO was so paranoid and said that time: no no no, you Cubans are not free to have them soviet gadget on your god dam land, but NATO ally South Korea for sure is free to have 100 US nuclear gadget 😁
@Sonomacats That paranoia is much older. What was there during the soviets, and what Putin inherited and further developed is in fact what Russia has started building from the times of Ivan the Great, more than five centuries ago.
@Sonomacats The US paranoia is the longest ! Do you know how many wars US fought in since its independence because of the paranoia of the need to have an enemy? Today, US is working full time on arming Ukraine to weaken Russia and prepare for the real enemy that is China! USA is paranoid about China. USA officially considers China an enemy and is provoking China to invade Taiwan now rather than wait for another 10 years when China will surplus USA militarily !
@@tarrasteno Yep, that's it! And the flight time of an ICBM from Cuba to Washington DC at that time is???? Versus the flight time from South Korea - still at war with the communists above them being supplied by Russia as well as well as the Chicoms - to Moscow was how much time? Or how about this: Cuba was so terrified the US would supply the rebels to the Revolutionwith arms, just as Russia and Communist China were supplying the DKRP still in a state of war with South Korea, that those nukes they were getting were to defend against a well armed resistance that didn't like Mr. Castro and Mr. Guevera having people doing one time appearances standing in front of a wall.
I disagree with him on the part where he said that WWII was not won with the annihilation of the other side. Germany was absolutely annihilated militarily and Japan Was put into complete submission.
1 - some wars did not end at a negotiating table. 2 - The Russian army can be defeated in Ukraine, can collapse if morale is low and logistical flows are harassed
@@solderdesolderlol, the GLSDBs are going to thoroughly check the logistic chains, while the Russians are using up their offensive potential for derisory territorial conquests! We can see the result in Vuhledar and Avdiivka ! While thousands of Ukrainians are being trained and equipment is being accumulated, Bradley, Marder, Stryker, Bastion, new Ceasars, new T-72....
1. Very very few post fall of Berlin when a nuclear power is involved as a belligerent, the only one I can think of is the South Africa bush war. Yeah that's right, Ukraine was not the only country in history to give up their nukes. 2. I'm not going to say this is impossible, but I will say it's improbable. To disrupt their logistical flows means bombing targets in and behind the Urals. The Ukrainians don't possess this capability and most likely won't be given these capabilities. Furthermore, even if Ukraine is very well equipped with perfect logistics, they will run out of manpower before the Russians. Total Ukrainian victory would likely only occur in the case of Russian government collapse.... there are zero indicators that this will occur. We've tried sanctions, yet their economy grows slightly still this year.... their debt to GDP is a fraction of our own, and their foreign currency reserves are holding, as is the value of their currency. Russians, as a people, do not overthrow governments that offer relative stability in economic terms.